Coral-Eclipse 2012.

tryfix

I can't see past So You Think on form, but he's short enough for a race with such a big field.

Nathaniel is a 12f horse, although Gosden is in top form and the horse has been well backed, I just don't fancy Nathaniel.

Farhh could be anything but he doesn't greatly impress me, as a son of Pivotal out of a German mare who liked soft ground I think he needs cut in the ground and the ground is good to firm at the moment.

The other Godolphin horse Monterosso at 20/1 is much more interesting. A surprise winner of the Dubai World Cup in march, his form at 10f reads 21341. He has the stamina to race at 12f which will help him see out Sandowns stiff uphill finish.

Bonfire is probably worth a shot at 14/1 in places, 3y olds have a great chance at the weights and he'll be my bet if he runs.

Colonel Sanders

Is the ground good to firm? There's been a lot of rain in London recently

tryfix

The racing post says it's good to firm, good in places.

The going remained unchanged at Sandown at good to firm, good in places after 4mm of rain fell on Monday night but clerk of the course Andrew Cooper was expecting further rain on Tuesday night with up to 5mm forecast as an unsettled weather outlook remained.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=184359

Goldcupfav

It will be interesting to see how Crackerjack King does on his first run for Marco Botti. Horse won his 7 starts in Italy and was only ever beaten once in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) last year. Botti has booked Ryan Moore for the ride so id say a big performance is expected. Still id expect SYT to sign off his racing career with a win here.

This is his last race in Italy beating Luca Cumani trained Afsare. 13/05/2012

newuser89

1st bonfire
2nd nathaniel
3rd so you think
That's how I see it

HigginsJ

I can def see Farhh getting an awful lot closer to so you think.

Read a piece where they are expecting big things from Nathaniel this year although as stated 10f is prob bit short but he will be of massive interest for me in the Arc later in the year.

So you think is probably still the pick of the 3 and will win but it will be a close thing. Nathaniel and Farhh will be closing fast at the finish.

1. So You Think
2. Farhh
3. Nathaniel

d-gal

newuser89 wrote: »

1st bonfire
2nd nathaniel
3rd so you think
That's how I see it

How you can see bonfire winning is beyond me. SYT could give him over a stone and still beat him. An extremely average 3yo

newuser89

All the weight he is getting
And I don't think he ran his race in the derby
I was impressed with him before that
Syt is a very gd horse but still very beatable

d-gal

newuser89 wrote: »

All the weight he is getting
And I don't think he ran his race in the derby
I was impressed with him before that
Syt is a very gd horse but still very beatable

The Dante has proven to be a poor race this year. The only 3yo I could see troubling SYT is Camelot and he obviously isnt there and if SYT puts in the same performance as last time he will win no problem. He will have to perform below his best for either Nathaniel or Farrh to beat him. Crackerjack might be worth an outside bet I'd imagine

newuser89

Im pretty confident of nathaniel beating so you think anyway

It's a very interesting race, So You Think has CD winning form which is a plus, last year beating Work Force by 1/2l on good ground in a 5 runner field.

So You Think has won on good to soft and on soft in his earlier racing days and though no doubt stretched by 12f seems to be perfectly suited to 10f at Sandown.

A few are rated up there with So You Think in this
- Cityscape is rated 125 too, may well not find the 10f out of range, won well at Meydan over 9f on good ground, hard to discount in my opinion and on the official figures is in with a very definite chance if staying on, that's a significant if though. I really like that Meydan form and previous efforts over 8f in very decent races when not quite quick enough close home did suggest a step up in trip would suit. I would be very surprised if Cityscape is not making a very very promising looking attack 2 furlongs out in this, that attack may not be quite enough to take the race but if 3.5 tbp was knocking about on Betfair to accompany a little bit on the win market I think it would be valuesome.

- Monterosso has nice pieces of form, beating So You Think over 10f on the artificial surface at Meydan but I reckon the rating of 127 flatters somewhat, I can't quite see Monterosso being good enough to win this, the market agrees so nothing profound there :pac:

- The 4yo Nathaniel is rated 126 and having beaten Work Force over 12f on GS as a 3 year old has no stamina doubts over this 10f trip, has almost 3 1/2l to find on So You Think over 10f at Ascot though, again that was 2011 so going fresh here as a 4yo after a winter of doing whatever horses though may well be primed to close that gap. The guts of 10/1 seems quite decent all things considered.

- Second fav is Farhh, rated 118 and like Nathanial a 4yo with potential to improve, race fit and beaten by almost 3l by So You Think 3 weeks ago when not getting the run of the race most people will be wondering how close he could have gotten. Aside from that race though there's not much other form to ponder and relying on the "one swallow doesn't make....." ole saying I'm reckoning Farhh is little value and not one to have huge hopes for.


I give Cityscape and Nathaniel decent chances so anything about 5/4 ish on So You Think is poor value for me, I reckon 5/4 won't be hard to find on Saturday.

I reckon the trip is ideal for Cityscape so that's the one for me at the likely odds

MyStubbleItches

SYT out lame according to Sky Sports News just now.

mike65

That's opened up the race for punters a bit then (I'm assuming So You Think was very short).

newuser89

Apparently so you think was lame
But I wouldnt be surprised if ballydoyle were scared that a couple of horses would beat so you think in his last race

tryfix

That certainly opens up the race a bit.

The French filly Giofra looks more likely to place now, I'm not sure she's good enough to win but with SYT out it'll be much easier to finish in the first 3. She a lightly raced filly who finished 8l behind behind Cirrus Des Aigles in the Ganay after winning a French Gp2 on her 4 yo debut. She was 2L ahead of Reliable Man in the Ganay and 10L in front of Wigmore Hall. Reliable Man finished a nk behind Farhh in the POW with Wigmore Hall 4 1/2L further back.

On form she's entitled to be in single figures in the betting, she was 25/1 in the betting before SYT was announced as a non runner.

EDIT : She's out. The final 10 declarations are.

Cityscape, City Style, Crackerjack King, Farhh, Monterosso, Nathaniel, Sri Putra, Twice Over, Bonfire and Cogito.

sting60

I was wondering how long before SYT would be injured.Farhh will be hard to beat after his last run.

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

That's opened up the race for punters a bit then (I'm assuming So You Think was very short).

Was 2.1 to lay yesterday mike.

HigginsJ

tryfix wrote: »

EDIT : She's out. The final 10 declarations are.

Cityscape, City Style, Crackerjack King, Farhh, Monterosso, Nathaniel, Sri Putra, Twice Over, Bonfire and Cogito.

Nathaniel and Farhh look clear best to me now. What price Farhh now?

Reverse forecast on the cards.

Slattsy

Farhh 9/4ish
Nathaniel 3's

UrbanSea

Fargo must be the most under priced horse of all time. Crackerjack king at 12/1 would be my idea of a good each way bet

Slattsy

So You Think missing has actually taken a lot of my interest out of it now.

If the ground stays good to firm I'll probably give Cityscape a go.

Nathaniel is a big lay for me.

HigginsJ

UrbanSea wrote: »

Fargo must be the most under priced horse of all time. Crackerjack king at 12/1 would be my idea of a good each way bet

You mean Farhh??

Why do you think he is so under-priced. He is clearly an improving 4yo. He took a jump from winning a 8f handicap to a somewhat unlucky 3rd in one of the premier 10f grp1's in this part of the world in only his 4th start.

He has a very progressive looking profile and is deserved favourite with SYT not in the race.

UrbanSea

Yeah that was my spell check. I'd still think 7/2 would be skinny enough in a wide open race but still think it'll prove to be a poor Eclipse looking back in terms of quality.

HigginsJ

HigginsJ wrote: »

You mean Farhh??

Why do you think he is so under-priced. He is clearly an improving 4yo. He took a jump from winning a 8f handicap to a somewhat unlucky 3rd in one of the premier 10f grp1's in this part of the world in only his 4th start.

He has a very progressive looking profile and is deserved favourite with SYT not in the race.

3.6 to back on Betfair.
In my opinion Farhh is fav on the basis of ifs and buts due to the unlucky run last time out. Recent form is well known as having a more than fairly weighted effect on the price. I didn't reckon Farhh would be 2nd to SYT and without SYT in the race I wouldn't reckon anything less than 4/1 is appropriate.

The market is taking full advantage of Farhh's bad luck lto imo
Time will tell.

Slattsy

RoverJames wrote: »

3.6 to back on Betfair.
In my opinion Farhh is fav on the basis of ifs and buts due to the unlucky run last time out. Recent form is well known as having a more than fairly weighted effect on the price. I didn't reckon Farhh would be 2nd to SYT and without SYT in the race I wouldn't reckon anything less than 4/1 is appropriate.

The market is taking full advantage of Farhh's bad luck lto imo
Time will tell.

Spot on.
I'd say unlucky losers next time out are a bookies wet dream.

aidan24326

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah that was my spell check. I'd still think 7/2 would be skinny enough in a wide open race but still think it'll prove to be a poor Eclipse looking back in terms of quality.

Poor Grp1 races are becoming a feature of this season. The brilliance of Frankel and Camelot masks the mediocrity of the rest. The Epsom Derby was ordinary and the Irish version was shockingly poor.

Nulty

aidan24326 wrote: »

Poor Grp1 races are becoming a feature of this season. The brilliance of Frankel and Camelot masks the mediocrity of the rest. The Epsom Derby was ordinary and the Irish version was shockingly poor.

I'd have the opposite view....

Camelot and Frankel have raised our expectations and thus perfectly good group 1 races are made to look ordinary by comparison. Anyway, Frankels races aren't 'races', they're a farce from a competition standpoint. He should be running against trains, planes and automobiles.

And for the record, he'll win everything at 10f too.

Slattsy

aidan24326 wrote: »

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yeah that was my spell check. I'd still think 7/2 would be skinny enough in a wide open race but still think it'll prove to be a poor Eclipse looking back in terms of quality.

Poor Grp1 races are becoming a feature of this season. The brilliance of Frankel and Camelot masks the mediocrity of the rest. The Epsom Derby was ordinary and the Irish version was shockingly poor.

Spot on.
The 3 year olds seems a particularly poor lot this year. Camelot aside obviously.

HigginsJ

Slattsy wrote: »

Spot on.
I'd say unlucky losers next time out are a bookies wet dream.

You are correct that unlucky losers are great not for bookies but alot of the time its horses with bad temperment or have run like that before. Farhh and the french horse both looked to have had unlucky runs in that race.

The question I would ask is that if Carlton house was running in this race without SYT what price would he be?

HigginsJ

HigginsJ wrote: »

....

The question I would ask is that if Carlton house was running in this race without SYT what price would he be?

CH would be 2nd fav, possibly joint 2nd fav despite a CD win off 119 in the form book imo, farhh would still be fav. What do you think?

Slattsy

RoverJames wrote: »

HigginsJ wrote: »

....

The question I would ask is that if Carlton house was running in this race without SYT what price would he be?

CH would be 2nd fav, possibly joint 2nd fav despite a CD win off 119 in the form book imo, farhh would still be fav. What do you think?

Carlton House would win, and you'd probably get 3/1

HigginsJ

RoverJames wrote: »

CH would be 2nd fav, possibly joint 2nd fav despite a CD win off 119 in the form book imo, farhh would still be fav. What do you think?

I'd agree he be fav/joint fav with Farhh. Therefore I think that with none of the other 1st 4 from ascot in the race he is the clear favourite.

HigginsJ

HigginsJ wrote: »

I'd agree he be fav/joint fav with Farhh. Therefore I think that with none of the other 1st 4 from ascot in the race he is the clear favourite.

... I didn't say they'd be joint favs.

Goldcupfav

Goldcupfav wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how Crackerjack King does on his first run for Marco Botti. Horse won his 7 starts in Italy and was only ever beaten once in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) last year. Botti has booked Ryan Moore for the ride so id say a big performance is expected. Still id expect SYT to sign off his racing career with a win here.

This is his last race in Italy beating Luca Cumani trained Afsare. 13/05/2012

Will be watching Afsare in the listed race at Sandown today. If he wins then think i'll chance having an each way bet on Crackerjack King at 12/1 in the Eclipse. Looks a very open race imo now that SYT isnt running.

the groutch

if there isnt too much rain I'd have to go for Monterosso e/w at 12/1, probably the biggest price you'll ever see for a Dubai WC winner.

tryfix

With reports of one to two months of rain falling today in parts of England it'd be a good idea to hold off on any horse that needs good ground until the likely going becomes a bit clearer.

mike65

Okay I'm going to chance that John Gosdon has a good day tomorrow!

14:40 Sandown Park - Trade Commissioner (IRE)
14:55 Haydock Park - Great Heavens
15:10 Sandown Park - Starscope
15:45 Sandown Park - Nathaniel (IRE) (probably the weakest link if only as has been off so long)
16:20 Sandown Park - Thimaar (USA)
16:35 Haydock Park - Proofreader

3300/1 roughly!

TheMilkyPirate

Cityscape for me, Doubling up with great heavens in the Lancashire oaks.

MyStubbleItches

mike65 wrote: »

Okay I'm going to chance that John Gosdon has a good day tomorrow!

14:40 Sandown Park - Trade Commissioner (IRE)
14:55 Haydock Park - Great Heavens
15:10 Sandown Park - Starscope
15:45 Sandown Park - Nathaniel (IRE) (probably the weakest link if only as has been off so long)
16:20 Sandown Park - Thimaar (USA)
16:35 Haydock Park - Proofreader

3300/1 roughly!

Would you not worry that Buick has opted to ride Mount Athos for Cumani instead of Thimaar Mike?

Nulty

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

Would you not worry that Buick has opted to ride Mount Athos for Cumani instead of Thimaar Mike?

He never had the choice in the first place.

MyStubbleItches

Nulty wrote: »

He never had the choice in the first place.

Oh, didn't realise that. Cheers.

d-gal

Crackerjack king for me with a saver on twice over. Purely interest bets more than anything

Paddy Power enhancing Farhh to 5/1 max stake €100 to folks placing their first mobile bet, eliminates the value issue for many I would think
Text €xx enhanced Farhh to 51465

tryfix

I'll be sticking with Bonfire, I always like to take on the older horses with one of the classic generation. He flopped in the Derby, but his two year old GP1 form and his Dante win are very respectable efforts. The 2nd in the Dante was well beaten in France, but he was checked in running and eased down in what was a remarkably rough race.

paddymayoman

Thinking of doing a trade commissioner and farhh double.Is it something to be weary of with trade commissioner drifting from evens to 9/4?

paddymayoman

paddymayoman wrote: »

........... drifting from evens to 9/4?

You'd want to be a looney to back Trade Commissioner at evens or anywhere near it in that race, best form on good and good to firm, rated 12lbs higher than when winning lto, albeit very handily.

If the OR of 98 is about right Trade Commissioner has a lot to do to win this race, personally I'd want 5/1

kryogen

If anybody could update when the race is over Id appreciate that, in the car and can't watch it!

hawkhead

Nathaniel did it well. Great ride from Buick

Farhh was second, Twice over 3rd

trinib

kryogen wrote: »

If anybody could update when the race is over Id appreciate that, in the car and can't watch it!

Nathaniel
Farhh
Twice over

Johner

Nathaniel is a beast.

tryfix

Johner wrote: »

Nathaniel is a beast.

Farhh seemed to chicken out, when he got to him he had the momentum to pass him. It was like he was scared to pass Nathaniel.