Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

TheMilkyPirate

Refusing to get excited watch/model runs/buy a snowmobile until 96hrs out

Trotter

Why don't we all put in a fiver every week and every 2 or 3 years, all snow loving members of the forum here go somewhere snowy for a weekend where we can drink hot whiskey and look out at it while posting to the forum from our laptops.


i.e. Why are we doing this to ourselves again?

Su Campu

Trotter wrote: »

Why don't we all put in a fiver every week and every 2 or 3 years, all snow loving members of the forum here go somewhere snowy for a weekend where we can drink hot whiskey and look out at it while posting to the forum from our laptops.


i.e. Why are we doing this to ourselves again?

Because it's silly season. Reason goes out the window

davidsr20

Ok I know we're hoping for snow but will we be fairly sure to get some decent cold weeks even around -5 would be nice and better than last year!
Leaving snow aside what are we looking at in terms of a cold winter?

Trotter

Su Campu wrote: »

Because it's silly season. Reason goes out the window

Reason is for the weak. Reason would suggest I'm wrong to have located and readied my bobble hat for duty.

kstand

GFS and GEFS seem to be in agreement up to 192 hours about what will happen - all along the lines of what Simon Keeling had to say in that clip I saw today. Might not be in for huge falls of snow just yet, but certainly appears like we're in for cold, crisp, dry weather from the weekend onwards. Anything possible after that.

Capillatus

I cant wait for tomorrows ECMWF 19.11 12z update on the http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html site

Reason?





Priceless.

davidsr20

Capillatus wrote: »

I cant wait for tomorrows ECMWF 19.11 12z update on the http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html site

Reason?





Priceless.

Elaborate please!

Capillatus

Well, how to say it as simple as possible?

Lets just say that if things actually go in this direction, at least the tropospheric part of the Polar Vortex would get one hell of a beating.

Blizzard 2010

davidsr20 wrote: »

Elaborate please!

Splitting Polar Vortex = Flooding of Bitterly cold from the Arctic to the mid lattitude over us;)

Capillatus

And the corresponding 500mb anomaly.

Elmer Blooker

Red Pepper wrote: »

Jesus lads, I cant read any of these charts.

I'm not trying to be a smart alec RP but you're better off not bothering with them. I have no idea why I waste my time looking at charts.
Yesterday saw beautiful northern blocking and THIS is what we end up with today.
Anything beyond 120/144 hours is the land of make believe.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

A bit confused as to why there aren't more posts here guys ?

An interesting setup starting to move into the reliable timeframe as far as I can see !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

AO and NAO going down

Wolfe_IRE

t|nt|n wrote: »

A bit confused as to why there aren't more posts here guys ?

Because 5-7c during the day, relatively dry conditions and nighttime frosts is all that is being presented at this stage. There is no deep pool of cold air to tap into across Europe at present. Now, if we were to be hit by a northerly plunge, it would be entirely different. That is not showing.

Still, cold is now favoured over the currents setup. The extent and severity of this cold remains the outstanding question.

Iancar29

Speak Now

Nice blue skies over Cork on Perturbation 4 :pac:

Iancar29

haahhahaaha!

That shield works wonders! ha

Strangegravy

t|nt|n wrote: »

A bit confused as to why there aren't more posts here guys ?

An interesting setup starting to move into the reliable timeframe as far as I can see !

The craziness is probably happening in the snow ramping thread, it's a bit more cautiously optimistic in here.

tresb26

does anyone pay any heed in Joe Bastardi's forecasts?

wexie

t|nt|n wrote: »

AO and NAO going down

erm.....that's good right?

Redsunset

wexie wrote: »

erm.....that's good right?

Yes.

This link will help you understand.

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

wexie

Redsunset wrote: »

Yes.

This link will help you understand.

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

Thanks, that does explain pretty well. Graphics are very good (for me anyways).

Thinking of it like a globe (duh) makes it much simpler

ninebeanrows

If only we had some deep cold to the east!!

Some lovely synoptics playing out on tonight's ECM

jamo2oo9

Weathercheck wrote: »

If only we had some deep cold to the east!!

Some lovely synoptics playing out on tonight's ECM

See the Yellow band between Ireland and Greenland? If that was light or medium blue, what would that mean? I'm guessing it would bring snow to us?

Birdnuts

Weathercheck wrote: »

If only we had some deep cold to the east!!

Some lovely synoptics playing out on tonight's ECM

Recent maxes in Moscow are hovering around 0C atm. We would need to see something closer to -10C there to get any fun and games in these parts. But thats the Irish climate for ya - famous for bad timing!!:(:rolleyes:;)

ninebeanrows

192hr ECM woudl be epic with a cold pool!

In this case, some lovely driving COLD RAIN for the east! Bitterly cold in the wind.

Iancar29

Even a borderline situation @ 162 hrs..

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Indeed some nice setups today...

ninebeanrows

Ye we want to squeeze as much as we can out of the early easterly fee. Give us a degree cooling each day and who knows we might get 850's down to -7/-8c, worth hoping for if unlikely.

Longer term pattern looks positive.

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

Ye we want to squeeze as much as we can out of the early easterly fee. Give us a degree cooling each day and who knows we might get 850's down to -7/-8c, worth hoping for if unlikely.

Longer term pattern looks positive.

Fantastic charts today on the ECM 12z run if that blocking can hold, we should get those -8 uppers from out north east its going to take time, But the building blocks are defiantly in place.