The Football Tips Thread v3

tinodz · 22-05-2012 11:47pm

Had Avai (-1) sitting on my betslip for a while, and it dropped from 2.80 to 2.50 when I was away. Decided to go for that for €10. No real stats to back it up.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 22-05-2012 11:58pm

Two interesting games on tomorrow:

Its the final game day in the Swiss challenge league(English Championship equivalent), 2 teams tied in 2nd place on pionts and goal difference are Aarau and Bellinzona.

Table:
http://www.soccerway.com/national/switzerland/challenge-league/2011-2012/regular-season/tables/

Both sides play 2 clubs in the relegation zone tomorrow with now way out, effectively their opposition has nothing to play for. Expecting both sides to win tomorrow is very likely, only 1st and 2nd has a shot at Europe so it will be down to goal difference between these 2 sides tomorrow for 2nd place, so i'd expect Obvious home wins and both home sides trying to score as many goals as possible to get that important 2nd place.

The odds aren't great on straight home wins, and even over 3.5 is poor at 1/2,

2 good looking selections are:

Aarau ht/ft @ 4/7 PP
Bellinzona ht/ft @ 13/10 PP

A double with these could be good too.

Aarau game:

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/23/switzerland/challenge-league/fc-aarau/etoile-carouge-fc/1239223/

Bellinzona game:

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/23/switzerland/challenge-league/ac-bellinzona/fc-wohlen/1239224/

I've gone medium size bet on this double : Bellinzona win @ 1.50 and Aarau Asian h/cap (-2) @ 1.850, Double comes in around 2.66

MoscowFlyer · 23-05-2012 12:13am

Hmmmm good stuff TB, def bets to be had in those games.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 23-05-2012 12:22am

Goals for sure anyway

stingerro · 23-05-2012 1:03am

Because of a goal difference coming into play there is a big potential with live bets with this two games.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 23-05-2012 1:05am

stingerro wrote: »

Because of a goal difference coming into play there is a big potential with live bets with this two games.

Indeed! 365 will cover in play too.

Nuri Sahin · 23-05-2012 2:04am

Damn bookies.

______

Japan v Azerbaijan Unders 2.5 @ 6/5

SteelyDanJalapeno · 23-05-2012 2:23am

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Two interesting games on tomorrow:

Its the final game day in the Swiss challenge league(English Championship equivalent), 2 teams tied in 2nd place on pionts and goal difference are Aarau and Bellinzona.

Table:
http://www.soccerway.com/national/switzerland/challenge-league/2011-2012/regular-season/tables/

Both sides play 2 clubs in the relegation zone tomorrow with now way out, effectively their opposition has nothing to play for. Expecting both sides to win tomorrow is very likely, only 1st and 2nd has a shot at Europe so it will be down to goal difference between these 2 sides tomorrow for 2nd place, so i'd expect Obvious home wins and both home sides trying to score as many goals as possible to get that important 2nd place.

The odds aren't great on straight home wins, and even over 3.5 is poor at 1/2,

2 good looking selections are:

Aarau ht/ft @ 4/7 PP
Bellinzona ht/ft @ 13/10 PP

A double with these could be good too.

Aarau game:

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/23/switzerland/challenge-league/fc-aarau/etoile-carouge-fc/1239223/

Bellinzona game:

http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/23/switzerland/challenge-league/ac-bellinzona/fc-wohlen/1239224/

I've gone medium size bet on this double : Bellinzona win @ 1.50 and Aarau Asian h/cap (-2) @ 1.850, Double comes in around 2.66

Edit, This needs to be verified that one of the 2 relegated clubs has nothing to play for, Wiki says 5 go down, Soccerway says 6 go down, will have a look tomorrow

inforfun · 23-05-2012 7:15am

inforfun wrote: »

Anyone know what happened with the Atletico Huila - Atletico Madrid friendly?
Saw it scheduled for 01.30 this morning, put some money on over 3 goals but cant find a result anywhere.
Bet was also still open in my account.

I see Huila has a cup match tomorrow so i suppose that friendly never took place?

Well... it was played this morning Madrid won 3-1 so over 3 won.
Now if only i got login to see if that bet still was on and not voided before kick off...

Madrid's opponents, Atletico Huila, have a cup match tonight against a lower division team

stingerro · 23-05-2012 7:19am

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Edit, This needs to be verified that one of the 2 relegated clubs has nothing to play for, Wiki says 5 go down, Soccerway says 6 go down, will have a look tomorrow

From other forum, without proper checking not sure what is "Xamax situation":

As i have told you i'm very intrested in last matchday of Swiss Challenge league tomorrow..I've analyzed the situation about Aarau and Belinzona BUT a major new factor came in..Because of Xamax relegation ONLY 5 teams from challenge league will relegate..That means that Wohlen which plays against Belinzona may play gor their Survival if Nyonnai manage to win Winthertour..That makes of course Belinzona's work to score alot of goals more difficult..I expect Aarau to come out very strong in Carrouge and o3.5 can be found around 1.90..I have already taken it as a single because i strongly believe it will go down quickly..I also took o4.5 @3.10 with smaller stakes....Carouge are push overs and Aarau after achieving this huge win against ST Gallen won't let the opportunity go..

Lasagna Diarra · 23-05-2012 12:27pm

Small bet on Sileks (Macedonian league) @ 2.25

Nuri Sahin · 23-05-2012 1:10pm

-Ade- wrote: »

Avai @ 1/2 for me later on.

Also, some might remember me being rather fond of it last year when it came to them. Japan are in action tomorrow morning. Win to Nil @ 8/11, unders @ 11/10 and home win and 1 or 2 goals @ 21/10 interest me, no idea what I'll pick though! Probably best to wait for the Japan line up on this one.

-Ade- wrote: »

Japan v Azerbaijan Unders 2.5 @ 6/5

Both bets came in

10 to near 400 now lol.

I really need to start betting on win and goal total on them for now on, 21/10 for the Japan win and 1 or 2 goals earlier.

Nuri Sahin · 23-05-2012 2:20pm

Get these out of the way as I won't be on later.

Alcorcon -1 @ 10/11
Celta Vigo -2 @ 13/8
Celta Vigo -1, FC Nordsjaelland v AC Horsens BTTS and Copenhagen @ 2/1

bradlente · 23-05-2012 2:46pm

stingerro wrote: »

Because of a goal difference coming into play there is a big potential with live bets with this two games.

What would be a value bet in this situation and what time is it best to get on if it stays 0-0?

I know thats a bit vague as you have to take whatever teams are playing into account and what the odds are initially,I don't usually get on overs with live betting is all and I'm not sure what to look for exactly.

Lasagna Diarra · 23-05-2012 3:55pm

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Small bet on Sileks (Macedonian league) @ 2.25

another single on Sileks @ 2.00

We might have a fixed game here...

seanhynes · 23-05-2012 3:58pm

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

another single on Sileks @ 2.00

We might have a fixed game here...

why are they drifting to 6/4?were 11/10 and went out on me there,365

stingerro · 23-05-2012 4:01pm

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

another single on Sileks @ 2.00

We might have a fixed game here...

??? I still have 13/10 on bet365.

seanhynes · 23-05-2012 4:02pm

ya it came up 6/4 when i tried around 3mins to 4,tried clicking again and price disappeared and its back to 13/10

seanhynes · 23-05-2012 4:06pm

Real Betis are playing CD Marbella at 7pm tonight lads in a friendly,id watch that one for a good few goals,Betis had a mad game on Thurs 7-2 i think it finished and a 4 or 5 goal game a day or two before that, Marbella usually get thumped in friendlies againt decent opposition too i remember Sevilla beating them 9 or 10nil before aswell as a German club Dusseldorf i think hammering them

seanhynes · 23-05-2012 4:07pm

odds have switched ends its now 2/1 sileks???

Lasagna Diarra · 23-05-2012 4:10pm

seanhynes wrote: »

odds have switched ends its now 2/1 sileks???

oh you're right, wtf??? I checked a few min before the game started and the odds had dropped to 2.00, now they're at 3.75???

seanhynes · 23-05-2012 4:12pm

there ahead of the other side anyways going by the table and won once drew twice of last 3 meetings,LOL game removed from Bet365

Lasagna Diarra · 23-05-2012 4:16pm

The odds can't have drifted like that a few minutes into the game for no reason... I took them in play @ 2.00 when the game had just begun...crazy :eek:

edit: the game has been removed from Bwin LOL, the Macedonian league has to be the most corrupt league in Europe :O

stingerro · 23-05-2012 4:21pm

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

The odds can't have drifted like that a few minutes into the game for no reason... I took them in play @ 2.00 when the game had just begun...crazy :eek:

edit: the game has been removed from Bwin LOL, the Macedonian league has to be the most corrupt league in Europe :O

It was taken off from bet365 as well.

Lasagna Diarra · 23-05-2012 4:42pm

stingerro wrote: »

It was taken off from bet365 as well.

and now we know why...

sorry if anyone followed me on Sileks

De Dannan · 23-05-2012 5:27pm

Trying hard to find some value in Celta Vigo later. I can see they like to score goals!

Thinking of
Celta Vigo v Xerez Over 2.5
1.44
Esjerg v Viborg BTTS
1.52
Double 2.19

tinodz · 23-05-2012 5:52pm

I won with Celta (-1) for the past 3 weeks - this good feeling will probably come to an end tonight.

The bad stat I am worried about is that only 4 of Xerez's 19 Away games this season would have won a (-1), and the recent H2H game's between the two have been very close too.

I will go with BTTS score this week in the Celta game, as both teams scored in their last 4 H2H games, Celta also have a streak of scoring in their games Home game - they have scored in 11 games going back to December. In their last last 11 Away games, Xerez has scored in 8, and were kept to a clean sheet in just 3.

So, €10 on Both Teams to Score @ 1.90 on PP

Here is hoping this works out!

Radonman · 23-05-2012 7:16pm

Aarau v Etoile - over 1.5 first half goals @ 4/5

tinodz · 23-05-2012 7:30pm

tinodz wrote: »

I won with Celta (-1) for the past 3 weeks - this good feeling will probably come to an end tonight.

The bad stat I am worried about is that only 4 of Xerez's 19 Away games this season would have won a (-1), and the recent H2H game's between the two have been very close too.

I will go with BTTS score this week in the Celta game, as both teams scored in their last 4 H2H games, Celta also have a streak of scoring in their games Home game - they have scored in 11 games going back to December. In their last last 11 Away games, Xerez has scored in 8, and were kept to a clean sheet in just 3.

So, €10 on Both Teams to Score @ 1.90 on PP

Here is hoping this works out!

In at 30 minutes. Yes!

Radonman · 23-05-2012 7:53pm

Radonman wrote: »

Aarau v Etoile - over 1.5 first half goals @ 4/5

Wish they were all that easy in in 34 mins:D

The Football Tips Thread v3

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