Euro 2012 Betting

kev250

luis suarez wrote: »

Italy down to 6/1 now and just reading some posts on here i can't help but laugh.I can't believe people think germany will hammer italy.

Germany are a much better side but obviously it isn't going to be that easy

tinodz

Close to putting a decent bet on Spain to win @ Evens - hoping to double last weeks winning (on the few things I won on), and wipe out my terrible Euro luck (though I fear it will continue). Will probably go ahead with this a bit closer to KO.

I even bothered to try and look at some stats:

Helder Postiga is out [Bad!]
Last H2H, Portugal trashed Spain (but it was a Friendly) [Still Bad!]
The line-up was close to the one likely today (but the goals came after HT subs) [Still not a great sign]
Bad booking could screw things up. The teams, and the ref points to this. [This could go either way]
Portugal have the joint TGS of the Euros (Ronaldo) [Bad!]
Spain have more goals as a team [Good!]
Spain scored early more often, and let in less later in the games during the Euros [Gopd!]
In the Euros, Portugal usually score goals later in most games - Spain should cancel this out [Good!]
Id any team knows how to cancel out Ronaldo, Spain should have a chance [hopefully]

If Spain lose, then feel free to ban me for screwing up all your bets. I never believed in jinxed bets before, but dammit I am getting close here. :pac:

Jackohearts

@inforfun
Have done ok on the cards markets the last few games. I noticed that the refs were giving them out less frequently than before e.g the first card in the England/Italy was at 80mins.

Think I will chance the under market for the cards in both games.. 40points I reckon

Tigerandahalf

What do people think of the market for Player of Tournament on PP. Ronaldo is at 7/2 which seems very short. I fancy the odds on Alonso and Silva. I have thrown a euro on both. For me it is a bet to nothing. Alonso is 25/1 and Silva is 33/1. Both players have played v well. For me better than Xavi or Iniesta. Another strong game from either of them and they would have a real chance of winning.

yesno1234

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

What do people think of the market for Player of Tournament on PP. Ronaldo is at 7/2 which seems very short. I fancy the odds on Alonso and Silva. I have thrown a euro on both. For me it is a bet to nothing. Alonso is 25/1 and Silva is 33/1. Both players have played v well. For me better than Xavi or Iniesta. Another strong game from either of them and they would have a real chance of winning.

Fancy Pirlo more so than them and if they manage to upset Germany I think he'll be nailed on for it. Had a great tournament.

elefant

yesno1234 wrote: »

Fancy Pirlo more so than them and if they manage to upset Germany I think he'll be nailed on for it. Had a great tournament.

My thinking too. I've backed Pirlo now, worth a shot.

EDudder

A tenner on Spain and Germany to progress to the next round (double) returns €18.67.

A tenner on Spain and Germany to be in the final returns €20.50.

Paddy power on the ball.

keysersoze0330

EDudder wrote: »

A tenner on Spain and Germany to progress to the next round (double) returns €18.67.

A tenner on Spain and Germany to be in the final returns €20.50.

Paddy power on the ball.

good spot, cheers

batistuta9

tinodz wrote: »

Close to putting a decent bet on Spain to win @ Evens - hoping to double last weeks winning (on the few things I won on), and wipe out my terrible Euro luck (though I fear it will continue). Will probably go ahead with this a bit closer to KO.

I even bothered to try and look at some stats:

Helder Postiga is out [Bad!]
Last H2H, Portugal trashed Spain (but it was a Friendly) [Still Bad!]
The line-up was close to the one likely today (but the goals came after HT subs) [Still not a great sign]
Bad booking could screw things up. The teams, and the ref points to this. [This could go either way]
Portugal have the joint TGS of the Euros (Ronaldo) [Bad!]
Spain have more goals as a team [Good!]
Spain scored early more often, and let in less later in the games during the Euros [Gopd!]
In the Euros, Portugal usually score goals later in most games - Spain should cancel this out [Good!]
Id any team knows how to cancel out Ronaldo, Spain should have a chance [hopefully]

If Spain lose, then feel free to ban me for screwing up all your bets. I never believed in jinxed bets before, but dammit I am getting close here. :pac:

spain haven't conceded a goal in their last 8 KO matches at the euro's or world cup either
clean sheets in KO rounds - euro '08 = 3, WC '10 = 4, euro '12 = 1
and the most goals anyone scored against them in group stage matches at them tournaments has been 1.

although in the confederations cup in '09 the USA beat the 2-0 in the semi's

Formation

Spain 1-0 @ half time @ 11/4.

Blatter

Spain to have over 65% possession @ 7/2 on on Hills.

Spain to have under 66.99% possession @ 5/6 on Stan James.


You would think from looking at that, that there'd be easy free money to be made, however there's a snag.

Hills use UEFA to judge the possession, Stan James use Opta.

I would stake large money on this if I could get hold of Opta stats of Euro 2012 matches and make sure they are almost identical to the UEFA ones. The UEFA stats are easy to find on their site, but I just cannot get hold of Opta stats for games, and have been looking for ages.

batistuta9

Blatter wrote: »

Spain to have over 65% possession @ 7/2 on on Hills.

Spain to have under 66.99% possession @ 5/6 on Stan James.


You would think from looking at that, that there'd be easy free money to be made, however there's a snag.

Hills use UEFA to judge the possession, Stan James use Opta.

I would stake large money on this if I could get hold of Opta stats of Euro 2012 matches and make sure they are almost identical to the UEFA ones. The UEFA stats are easy to find on their site, but I just cannot get hold of Opta stats for games, and have been looking for ages.

here you go http://opta-euro.mc.cloud.opta.net/index.html?lang=en

Blatter

batistuta9 wrote: »

here you go http://opta-euro.mc.cloud.opta.net/index.html?lang=en

Thanks a million, must compare a good few matches now and report back.

Blatter

Just compared a few matches there, and there is typically a 4% difference between the two possession stats. Too dodgy.

BKC

Opta have Spain as having had 66% possession against Italy. Just went through all of Opta's recent tweets and that is the only thing I found regarding Spain's possession:

OptaJoe (Twitter) wrote:

34% - Italy had the lowest percentage of possession in the opening group games, just ahead of England (35%). Chasing.

Hope that helps.



Edit: Took too long reading through the tweets! :P

batistuta9

Blatter wrote: »

Thanks a million, must compare a good few matches now and report back.

i looked at the spain v france & england v italy games there on both site's and OPTA had spain & italy having more possession in both, around 4% more


EDIT: never seen your post about doing it already

batistuta9

Blatter wrote: »

Just compared a few matches there, and there is typically a 4% difference between the two possession stats. Too dodgy.

OPTA - germany 75.9% v 24.1% greece
UEFA - germany 66% v 34% greece

:pac::pac::pac: far too dodgy

Blatter

How in the name of God can the possession stats vary so much for the same game? :pac:

I compared the first few matches of the actual tournament, and the stats seem to only vary by a % or two.

They vary far too much in the KO stages, that Germany/Greece one takes the piss.

Formation

Good to see a bit of stat work instead of the usual "i feel it in me waters".

you also have to take into account that the first match was the first decently competitive game either had played in ages. 3 games later in quick succession can change the dynamic, also if italy score a goal early spains possesion will increase and likely vice versa. Italy are becoming increasly more cohesive imo and will have gained confidence from the first draw and cassano is playing deeper allowing italy to increase possession, basically a 4-1-3-1-1. Along with having a quick look at eufa/opta stats how do you factor things like above in and determine a value point?

BKC

Formation wrote: »

you also have to take into account that the first match was the first decently competitive game either had played in ages. 3 games later in quick succession can change the dynamic, also if italy score a goal early spains possesion will increase and likely vice versa. Italy are becoming increasly more cohesive imo and will have gained confidence from the first draw and cassano is playing deeper allowing italy to increase possession, basically a 4-1-3-1-1. Along with having a quick look at eufa/opta stats how do you factor things like above in and determine a value point?

Spain are playing Portugal.

Formation

Too late for this craic. Point being with a huge amount of variables, glancing at possession stats from their opening 4 games is almost, not entirely, but almost useless. Portugal are likely to change their tatics a fair bit for the spanish game than they used in the czech and stats from just 4 games are not worth basing a bit bet on in a market you probably have little experience in analysing.

Formation

Jesus that spelling is woeful. Definately time for the leaba. GL.

JohnnyDoogue

EDudder wrote: »

A tenner on Spain and Germany to progress to the next round (double) returns €18.67.

A tenner on Spain and Germany to be in the final returns €20.50.

Paddy power on the ball.

A tenner on Spain and Germany to win is 37.23 I think I know where my money is going

Lord TSC

I've ended up making my biggest bet ever of 5€ :P Germany/Spain to win in 90.

Instantly regretting it. 19€ if I win though, which would cover all my Euro loses.

shrewdness

Couple of powerplays by PP today.

Ronaldo wincast enhanced to 13/2
McIlroy to win Irish open and Spain and Germany to win their semis - 35/1

De Dannan

Spain to win for me
However if Ronaldo is on song, and Portugal manage to get the ball, it might make it an interesting game
Be favoring unders also, be interesting to see the Spain team, assuming they will start with no striker again

heliocentrist

I was almost hooked in by that wincast for a brief moment. Then I remembered Portugal won't win so it doesn't matter whether Ronaldo scores.:D

1stimpressions

So what would you do? I've Alonso backed at 1000 to be top scorer and he has dropped under 40. 2 Euros punt I did on a few long shots for 50 profit or let it ride. Fab Torres and Ronaldo all playing with 2,2, and 3 goals respectively.

I see Bet Victor has 6/4 for Portugal to have 6 or more on target. Any thoughts.

Most of the markets I checked seem lacking in any value. Under 2.5 looks good but the price is probably bang on at 1.6ish

batistuta9

1stimpressions wrote: »

So what would you do? I've Alonso backed at 1000 to be top scorer and he has dropped under 40. 2 Euros punt I did on a few long shots for 50 profit or let it ride. Fab Torres and Ronaldo all playing with 2,2, and 3 goals respectively.

top scorer in the tournament? sell sell sell

Bobeagleburger

Ronaldo anytime 2/1.

That is all