Possible Storm Tuesday 17th April

M.T. Cranium

There are some subtle differences in track forecasts but would be surprised if wind gusts stronger than 50 kts show up anywhere north or east of a line from Mace Head to Limerick to Waterford and the best chance as many have said is in Kerry. However, given the number of times that storms have shown up 50-100 miles north of model predicted paths when it leads to downgrades, perhaps this case will flip-flop the other way.

In the meantime, expect some moderately strong gusts to 45-50 kts with the occlusion feature that is about to be pushed across Ireland tonight. This may weaken slightly with time, then we await the onset of the stronger winds of the low centre but a wide swath of the country may then be into the situation of awaiting a calm period as the low moves in overhead on a southeast track. Places north of this track should see a backing wind (SW to S to SE then somewhat variable settling into NE or N later) -- this should apply to Donegal and almost certainly to most of Ulster and Leinster, even some central inland districts. Places along the track of the low are just likely to see a dying southwest wind going calm then NE to N in the wake, gradually rising back to moderate levels.

Although the discussion may make it appear that Mayo, Galway and Clare are in this zone where calm winds may develop, some western parts of Mayo and Galway and some southern parts of Clare may find themselves in a zone of stronger and continuing SW to W to NW gales that we expect for Kerry and nearby parts of the southwest.

Should be interesting to track, 18z GFS could give us any indication of a northward shift.

Wild Bill

Jake1 wrote: »

here too , dry as a bone though.

Ditto.

But look at the radar!

Mega rain moving in from the West - now 30 miles past
the Galway/Limerick/Cork line and heading our way at 30mph :eek:

sunbabe08

:eek: sweet mother of god, only seeing the radar now. mega rain on thee way and thunderstorms (according to weatherchannel) for cork tomorrow

vibe666

already getting pretty breezy here in blanchardstown and some spits of rain.

radar looks like we might actually get a moderate battering overnight, so not looking forward to the baby getting repeatedly woken up. :eek:

Deep Easterly

Mod rain here now falling at a rate of 4.3mm/ph. Mean 12kts SSW.

Bicycle

Its picked up significantly here in Limerick City suburbs in the last 20 minutes. Rain banging off the roof and a low growl of a wind.

Wild Bill

Bicycle wrote: »

Its picked up significantly here in Limerick City suburbs in the last 20 minutes. Rain banging off the roof and a low growl of a wind.

I can see your growl on the radar - nothing here yet bar Great Expectations.

Diamond Dust

Really strong wind here in Kerry and heavy rain,

Iancar29

" HI RAIN! "

Bicycle

One of those red bits is over my bedroom roof

(Just to clarify my bedroom - and interestingly the rest of my house :0) - is on de nortside of suburban Limerick!!)

Deep Easterly

Some pretty serious looking returns over the mid-west region at the moment:



8.6mm here so far since the rain started and rain rate increasing to 8.2mm/ph. First decent drop of rain since I can't remember when!

dexter647

Just started to rain moderately here now...My garden is about to have a long overdue drink:)

Harps

Pouring down here as well with a strong wind, first time in what feels like months that we've had some real rain

A few pixels of 30-40mm/hr showing up on raintoday over the mid-west at the moment!

Bicycle

The weather has upped gear again over the last 10 minutes or so. Getting quite squally and pounding rain. The light tunnel in the ensuite sounds as if someone is pouring gravel all over it.

The rain is beating hard on the West facing window of my daughter's bedroom.

Stay safe, warm and dry peoples.

ninebeanrows

Appears to be ratcheting up on its front edge aswell

Quite a defined edge

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Iancar29

Still good potential for some thundery showers tomorrow. Cape Near 450 in the west and broad -1 LI . SOme water spouts on the west coast maybe?





http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/hir_spout_eur60.png

pauldry

very gusty in Sligo town with 5mm(total 6mm) of rain in the last hour. A squally burst to start but just windy and rainy now. Not pleasant to be out at all and I would say no one is out. Went for run earlier at 9 and it was grand. Funny nhow it changes so dramatically.

Interesting week of weather on the way with showers wind and cloud formations.

mountainy man

Heaviest rain that I've seen here in quite a while with added hail also, lost mobile internet for a while as the heaviest bit went over. Clare and Galway seems to be having a good doing!

Sar_Bear

Pretty stormy in Nenagh, Tipperary right now

eimearos

Very gusty and lashing rain here in Waterford the last few hours

mickger844posts

Nice squall line running through the middle of the front. Waiting for the heavy stuff to arrive here. Temp on the rise to 10.1c, wind picking up a bit.

cherryghost

Massive rumble of thunder here. Literally has the place shaking

cunnifferous

Yeah still waiting for anything to hit Dublin city center. Fingers crossed for some downed trees and a day off work!

MiNdGaM3

Wow, sounds wild out. Just happened suddenly the last 5 minutes!

Harps

Torrential rain here at the moment, we had a bit of a lull but its really pouring down again, heaviest so far with the gutters overflowing

Impressive looking on the radar now with a very well defined front edge, Limerick/Clare seems to be getting the worst of it. Not even raining here though apparently :rolleyes:

Birdnuts

The Pressure Alarm on my Oregon is going off like mad - its been ages since that has happened:eek:!!

Deep Easterly

No huge totals on the 12am reports but still a decent 6.9mm at Knock in the last hour with 5.0mm at Shannon:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Birdnuts

pauldry wrote: »

Interesting week of weather on the way with showers wind and cloud formations.

It has the potential to be the most interesting since the Dec 2010 cold spell looking at tonights models:cool:

H2UMrsRobinson

You just know the weather has been extremely dull of late, when you consider pulling an all-nighter to watch it rain !!!

Iancar29

SQUALL LINE! :D:D