AFC Playoff Picture

McG

AFC East
Jets 11-0
Bills 6-5

The Jets are the only team into the playoffs at this point having already won the division. The Bills current run of form puts them in contention for what is likely to be the 2nd wildcard spot.

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AFC North
Bengals 6-6
Ravens 5-7

It is looking increasingly unlikely that a wildcard team will come from AFC North this season. Ravens @ Bengals in week 14 will be a hugely important game as neither team can count on a second place finish in the division getting them to the playoffs. A win for the Bengals would leave them needing just one win from their last 3 (Colts, Cardinals and Steelers) to clinch the division.

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AFC South
Colts 10-2
Titans 8-4

The Colts can't shake off the Titans as both teams continue impressive runs. The runner-up in this division will most likely take a wildcard spot. These teams have already played each other twice (1-1) so unlike the AFC West and AFC North we have no "6 pointer" coming up.

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AFC West
Broncos 8-3
Raiders 6-5
Chargers 5-6

The Raiders and Broncos play each other in week 14 and (if the Broncos beat the Patriots this week) they will have an opportunity to take the division with 3 games remaining.

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Key potential swing games as it looks now (mid way through week 13):

Ravens @ Bengals - week 14
Raiders @ Broncos - week 14
Colts @ Bengals - week 15
Broncos @ Titans - week 16
Titans @ Ravens - week 17
Colts @ Bills - week 17



EDIT: added Chargers in. They still have slim chance but will face Jets, Bills and Raiders before the end of the season.

McG

My Colts have the CPU Saints up next, then 3 games against humans after that (Bengals, Texans and Bills) to finish the regular season. One more win should get me to the playoffs but I may need 3 to win the division and take the #2 seed.

Week 14 - Saints (4-7) look like a decent CPU team and have done well against some human opposition so far this season but I'd still expect to win that one.

Week 15 - After that should be a very motivated Bengals team who will be looking to clinch their own division and possibly get some revenge after the Colts beat the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last season.

Week 16 - Then I've got the Texans who are on a poor run at the moment though Pudsy should be out for payback after our last game.

Week 17 - If the Colts lose any of the games above they may then need a win against the Bills who will probably be playing for a wildcard. The Bills may hope that the Colts have their division sewn up by then which may see them rest key players.

helimachoptor

McG wrote: »

My Colts have the CPU Saints up next, then 3 games against humans after that (Bengals, Texans and Bills) to finish the regular season. One more win should get me to the playoffs but I may need 3 to win the division and take the #2 seed.

Week 14 - Saints (4-7) look like a decent CPU team and have done well against some human opposition so far this season but I'd still expect to win that one.

Week 15 - After that should be a very motivated Bengals team who will be looking to clinch their own division and possibly get some revenge after the Colts beat the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last season.

Week 16 - Then I've got the Texans who are on a poor run at the moment though Pudsy should be out for payback after our last game.

Week 17 - If the Colts lose any of the games above they may then need a win against the Bills who will probably be playing for a wildcard. The Bills may hope that the Colts have their division sewn up by then which may see them rest key players.

You'll win the division McG and get 2nd seed, you'd need a big collapse for it not to happen.
And even if it did you'd get a wildcard.
Though.. if you lose against the Bengals and Bills and I win my remaining games who knows (someone else can do the tie break analysis!!).

Presuming you get 2nd seed.. it will mean we wont play each other in the wildcards anyway so i may have a chance of getting through.

Though with yourself and Berty waiting it wont be easy for anyone!

McG

helimachoptor wrote: »

You'll win the division McG and get 2nd seed, you'd need a big collapse for it not to happen.

We've seen that happen before! I thought I had it wrapped up last season and ended up limping into a wildcard spot in week 17.

EDIT: actually I think I was 10-2 at this point last season too... finished at 11-5.

mikemac1

Can't wait for next gameweek against the Bengals

A must win game

helimachoptor

McG wrote: »

We've seen that happen before! I thought I had it wrapped up last season and ended up limping into a wildcard spot in week 17.

EDIT: actually I think I was 10-2 at this point last season too... finished at 11-5.

So there's hope

The Bengals and Bills games will be tough.
2nd place in the AFC North is not going to get a wild card so Rob will know he'll have to win this or will be taking an early shower.

Similar situation with the Bills on the last game day.
A loss for them could see them take an early bath.

I should win my 2 CPU games.
The games against the Broncos and Ravens could go either way tbh

Titans are 5th in total offense (very surprising!)
Broncos are 7th

Titans are 9th in defense
Broncos are 14th in defense

So at this point I expect a wild card.. that may change after the Broncos game and could leave both myself and the Ravens hammering it out for a wild card (Titans) or division title (Ravens)

As always the Boards league is as exciting as ever!

BigBadRob83

mikemac1 wrote: »

Can't wait for next gameweek against the Bengals

A must win game

Massive game, must win for both teams.

If I lose, it could mean the division, as don't fancy my chances of beating Ravens record rest of the way with the Colts and Cardinals to play.

McG

BigBadRob83 wrote: »

Massive game, must win for both teams.

If I lose, it could mean the division, as don't fancy my chances of beating Ravens record rest of the way with the Colts and Cardinals to play.

The Ravens loss to the Browns earlier this season could be the difference in settling this division.

A Ravens win would give each team a 6-7 record but the Bengals would still hold the tie breaker. Bengals probably do have a tougher final few games but not by much (Ravens have Titans, Browns and Jags)

The_Gatsby

McG wrote: »

EDIT: added Chargers in. They still have slim chance but will face Jets, Bills and Raiders before the end of the season.

Thanks for the false hope :P

matthew8

EA messed up this weeks Raiders game with the Chiefs (I don't know how they managed to fk up a human vs. CPU game but they did) and if the Raiders don't win the sim, game over for them. However the Chiefs suck. My offense should crucify them in the sim, but my fear is that my statistically weak defense could do badly against their offense, which is slightly statistically stronger.

If they can win that, I'm at 7-5 and have a tough run in:

Week 14 vs. Broncos: The Broncos are a very good team obviously, and if they executed in my territory they would have thrashed me last time (they won 15-14 with a last second FG), and that could be the case with Cody Hoppes emerging. I've gotten better too though so it will certainly be very interesting.

Week 15 vs. Bears: Very tough game of course, never played them so don't know what to expect.

Week 16 vs. Chargers: Do not let the 38-19 scoreline of the regular season game fool you. There's nothing between us and they really should have won that game, but I think you can all remember the controversy.

Week 17 vs. Packers: Even if they rest their starters it's an uphill battle.

I could need to win every game and even that might not get me into the playoffs.

McG

AFC East
Jets 12-0 (Divisional Champions)
Bills 6-6

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AFC North
Bengals 6-6
Ravens 5-7

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AFC South
Colts 11-2 (Colts have clinched playoff berth)
Titans 8-5
Jaguars 7-5

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AFC West
Broncos 10-3 (Divisional Champions)
Raiders 7-6
Chargers 5-7


EDIT: updated 19:15 on 31/3

helimachoptor

Who did the jags beat?

McG

helimachoptor wrote: »

Who did the jags beat?

Chargers, Browns, Panthers, Steelers, Dolphins, Falcons and Buccaneers. They're on a 4 game winning streak since losing narrowly to the Colts.

They finish with Texans, Titans, Ravens and Texans again. There's a chance 3 AFC South teams will go to playoffs.

helimachoptor

Ah stevo isn't around was wondering how they picked up the win

Pudsy33

McG wrote: »

Chargers, Browns, Panthers, Steelers, Dolphins, Falcons and Buccaneers. They're on a 4 game winning streak since losing narrowly to the Colts.

They finish with Texans, Titans, Ravens and Texans again. There's a chance 3 AFC South teams will go to playoffs.

The Jags will make the playoffs over my dead body! :mad:

matthew8

Raiders lose to the Broncos, so it's back in the Bills control. They should beat the Patriots and go ahead again. An interesting what-if: Had the Raiders not disastrously collapsed against the Bills earlier in the season, they would have a 3 game lead and the tiebreaker over the Bills. Instead they have a 1 game lead and the Bills have the tiebreaker.

helimachoptor

Pudsy33 wrote: »

The Jags will make the playoffs over my dead body! :mad:

If it happened i think it would be the firs time the CPU has gotten to the play offs since i joined the franchise

etloveslsd

helimachoptor wrote: »

If it happened i think it would be the firs time the CPU has gotten to the play offs since i joined the franchise

Broncos were cpu last year, think they were 8-8, typical AFC west

matthew8

etloveslsd wrote: »

Broncos were cpu last year, think they were 8-8, typical AFC west

So last year the west had no humans?

etloveslsd

matthew8 wrote: »

So last year the west had no humans?

The Raiders were controlled but he left before the playoffs. Not sure about the start of the season though

matthew8

Pudsy33 wrote: »

The Jags will make the playoffs over my dead body! :mad:

I can see the headline now:
"Jags walk over weak Texans to make playoffs, annoy Raiders/Bills"

McG

matthew8 wrote: »

I can see the headline now:
"Jags walk over weak Texans to make playoffs, annoy Raiders/Bills"

Not sure comments like that will help or hurt your cause

matthew8

McG wrote: »

Not sure comments like that will help or hurt your cause

Shut up and focus on your week 17 game.

McG

AFC East
Jets 12-0 (Divisional Champions)
Bills 7-6

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AFC North
Bengals 6-7
Ravens 6-7

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AFC South
Colts 11-2 (Colts have clinched playoff berth)
Titans 8-5
Jaguars 7-6

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AFC West
Broncos 10-3 (Divisional Champions)
Raiders 7-6
Chargers 6-7



The Bills keep themselves in the hunt with a vital win against the Patriots.

3 teams have clinched playoff berths so far (Jets, Broncos and Colts) but we probably won't see them take the foot off just yet as they still have seeding to play for.

Titans hold the lead in the race for a wildcard (could still take their division as unlikely as it is) but only have a single game lead over the Jaguars, Bills and Raiders. A Chargers win this week would see them in position to step up if a couple of those teams falter.

The Raven's win in this weeks big AFC North match leaving both teams with losing records with only 3 games to go. The Cardinals losing their head coach could be vitally important to the Bengals who probably (until that) had the slightly tougher final few games to play.

helimachoptor

The Titans crazy hungover loss to the Steelers makes things a bit interesting!
However.. the Titans will beat the Jags in the next game week.

Then the Broncos and Ravens.

Bengals/Titans wild card i think at this point.

McG

helimachoptor wrote: »

The Titans crazy hungover loss to the Steelers makes things a bit interesting!
However.. the Titans will beat the Jags in the next game week.

Then the Broncos and Ravens.

Bengals/Titans wild card i think at this point.

Bengals won't get wildcard, I expect they'll win their division.

Your Titan's should get one of the wildcards but hard to predict the other. A Jags win though in the next gameweek would make the wildcard hunt incredibly interesting, we'd have 4 or 5 teams with a chance at the 2 spots.

You'd better make sure you're in tip top condition for that game.

helimachoptor

McG wrote: »

Bengals won't get wildcard, I expect they'll win their division.

Your Titan's should get one of the wildcards but hard to predict the other. A Jags win though in the next gameweek would make the wildcard hunt incredibly interesting, we'd have 4 or 5 teams with a chance at the 2 spots.

You'd better make sure you're in tip top condition for that game.

But they'll probably be the worst division winner so they'll play 5th place (wildcard)

The Jags will be dismantled by Best.. I will not be airing it out thats for sure!!

McG

helimachoptor wrote: »

But they'll probably be the worst division winner so they'll play 5th place (wildcard)

Oh, yes. I thought you were saying that Bengals and Titans would be the 2 wildcard teams.

Wildcard round as it stands:
Titans @ Bengals
Bills/Jaguars/Raiders @ Broncos

Titans face: Jaguars, Broncos, Ravens. Looking at the other teams run ins, 1 win may be enough (2 almost certainly enough).
Bills face: Chargers, Giants, Colts.
Jaguars face: Titans, Ravens, Texans. Jags probably won't be able to keep pace with others
Raiders face: Bears, Chargers, Packers.

I can see Bills and Raiders ending up with same record, not sure who has tiebreaker there.

The Chargers have games against both the Bills and Raiders and could force themselves into contention.

All that will change rapidly as we approach the end of the regular season. A Ravens win this week followed by a Jaguars win next week would leave us with 6 teams all with a good chance at 2 play off spots (and probably another 1 or 2 with an outside chance).

McG

AFC East
Jets 13-0 (Divisional Champions)
Bills 7-6

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AFC North
Bengals 6-7
Ravens 6-7

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AFC South
Colts 11-2 (Colts have clinched playoff berth)
Titans 8-5
Jaguars 7-6

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AFC West
Broncos 10-3 (Divisional Champions)
Raiders 7-6
Chargers 6-7


We've still got a wide open battle for the 2 wildcard spots though Titans should still be favourites to pick one up. Bills, Raiders, Jaguars and Chargers still all in play for a wildcard and the runner up in the AFC North still has a chance too. A change of coach at the Cardinals gives the Bengals the edge in taking the AFC North's automatic playoff spot.

matthew8

Raiders beat the Bears so the Bills need to beat the Chargers to go back in the lead. Right now it looks like the only team I'll hold a tiebreaker against is the Chargers.

daflood

The plot thickens.....

Robs Bengals beat the Colts to keep the AFC North tight and it means that Colts and Broncos are both 11-3 and the playoff picture has gotten more difficult to figure.

Broncos have tough game against the Titans followed by an easy finish against the cpu Vikes (who have Mr Giselle though..)

Colts have to go to playoff hungry Bills in week 17.

Depending on who has the tiebreaker, this could go down to the wire.:pac::pac:

helimachoptor

@ daflood @ McG
I''ll be aiming to beat the broncos.. as if i lose i could potentially end up playing the Colts in the play offs again.. and getting beaten (badly) again!
The Titans will be well up for the Broncos game.

If i was to make a prediction it will be..
Jets
Colts
Broncos
Ravens
Titans
Bills

So the Titans and Ravens will have 2 consecutive games

BigBadRob83

helimachoptor wrote: »

@ daflood @ McG
I''ll be aiming to beat the broncos.. as if i lose i could potentially end up playing the Colts in the play offs again.. and getting beaten (badly) again!
The Titans will be well up for the Broncos game.

If i was to make a prediction it will be..
Jets
Colts
Broncos
Ravens
Titans
Bills

So the Titans and Ravens will have 2 consecutive games

Curious that you're predicting Ravens in the playoffs, considering you play in Week 17, when it will all be on the line.

Sounds very Serie A to me...

helimachoptor

BigBadRob83 wrote: »

Curious that you're predicting Ravens in the playoffs, considering you play in Week 17, when it will all be on the line.

Sounds very Serie A to me...

Hey.. its the AFC North.. I know i'll win
But I think you may have trouble with the Cards... but you'll beat the Steelers..

You'll both end up 8-8 (i predicted that a division winner would be 8-8 )

Actually I just realised the Bengals hold a better divisional record (I thought it was the ravens sorry its early and I've had an easter egg!)

But you're right a lot is going come down to week 17.

A loss to the Broncos, will leave me needing to beat the Ravens to ensure a play off place.

helimachoptor

With the Titans narrow loss, things get interesting.

McG

AFC East
Jets 15-0 (Divisional Champions)
Bills 8-6

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AFC North
Ravens 8-7
Bengals 7-7

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AFC South
Colts 11-3 (Divisional Champions)
Titans 9-6
Jaguars 7-8

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AFC West
Broncos 12-3 (Divisional Champions)
Raiders 8-6
Chargers 6-8



We have a great battle going on for the 2 wildcard spots.

Titans 9-6 (Ravens)
Bills 8-6 (Giants, Colts)
Raiders 8-6 (Chargers, Packers)
Ravens 8-7 (Titans)
Bengals 7-7 (Cardinals, Steelers)
Jaguars 7-8 (Texans)
Chargers 6-8 (Raiders, Chiefs)


WILDCARDS

I expect that the Bengals will win out the season against 2 CPU teams and take the AFC North making the week 17 clash between the Titans and Ravens a HUGE game. These teams could take both wildcard spots depending on results elsewhere but both will go into it feeling it's a must win. A Ravens win would see them match the Titan's record and take the tiebreaker! That would get them in the door unless the Bills and Raiders both win out. A Titans win should see them into the playoffs but I'm not sure how the tiebreakers would shake out if the Bills and Raiders both won their final two games.

The Bills have 2 tough games against human opposition but still have a good chance. If the Colts lose against the Texans this week they'll have lost the #2 seed and may decide to rest a large number of the team for the week 17 game against the Bills.

For the Raiders, 2 wins to finish the season and they're probably going to the playoffs (it's so tight that we can't be certain that will be enough, at the same time one win might be enough!).

The Texans will not let the Jaguars go to the playoffs.

The Chargers are still in it, they have to beat the Raiders in week 16 to keep themselves in contention (albeit at very long odds).


SEEDING

Jets are #1
If the Colts can win their games at the Texans and Bills they'll probably finish on the same record as the Broncos. Not sure who has the tiebreaker but it's no sure thing the Colts picking up those 2 wins so I'll give the Broncos the edge here.
#4 will likely go to the Bengals but the Ravens will step in if the Bengals slip up at all in their final two games.

#5 and #6......... who knows?!

daflood

I think the tiebreaker between myself and Colts is Divisional record and mine is one better as they have 3 div losses and I have two (I lost to Ben's Packers)

That means I just have to beat the CPU Vikes to take it.

I have my fingers majorly crossed for no connection issues!!!

helimachoptor

McG wrote: »

We have a great battle going on for the 2 wildcard spots.

Titans 9-6 (Ravens)
Bills 8-6 (Giants, Colts)
Raiders 8-6 (Chargers, Packers)
Ravens 8-7 (Titans)
Bengals 7-7 (Cardinals, Steelers)
Jaguars 7-8 (Texans)
Chargers 6-8 (Raiders, Chiefs)


WILDCARDS

I expect that the Bengals will win out the season against 2 CPU teams and take the AFC North making the week 17 clash between the Titans and Ravens a HUGE game. These teams could take both wildcard spots depending on results elsewhere but both will go into it feeling it's a must win. A Ravens win would see them match the Titan's record and take the tiebreaker! That would get them in the door unless the Bills and Raiders both win out. A Titans win should see them into the playoffs but I'm not sure how the tiebreakers would shake out if the Bills and Raiders both won their final two games.

The Bills have 2 tough games against human opposition but still have a good chance. If the Colts lose against the Texans this week they'll have lost the #2 seed and may decide to rest a large number of the team for the week 17 game against the Bills.

For the Raiders, 2 wins to finish the season and they're probably going to the playoffs (it's so tight that we can't be certain that will be enough, at the same time one win might be enough!).

The Texans will not let the Jaguars go to the playoffs.

The Chargers are still in it, they have to beat the Raiders in week 16 to keep themselves in contention (albeit at very long odds).


SEEDING

The Raiders and Bills both have very tough games, so... i'm going to say they'll both win 1 and lose 1 putting them on 9-7.

A titans loss will put them on 9-7 and and leave them with 7 conference wins from 12
LM is acting odd so I cant check the Raiders/Bills conference records

helimachoptor

[QUOTE=McG;78043966

WILDCARDS

I expect that the Bengals will win out the season against 2 CPU teams and take the AFC North making the week 17 clash between the Titans and Ravens a HUGE game. These teams could take both wildcard spots depending on results elsewhere but both will go into it feeling it's a must win. A Ravens win would see them match the Titan's record and take the tiebreaker! That would get them in the door unless the Bills and Raiders both win out. A Titans win should see them into the playoffs but I'm not sure how the tiebreakers would shake out if the Bills and Raiders both won their final two games.[/QUOTE]

McG Shane C is back for the Cardinals and the Bengals play the Cards this game week.... adds more complexity to the mix..

McG

daflood wrote: »

I think the tiebreaker between myself and Colts is Divisional record and mine is one better as they have 3 div losses and I have two (I lost to Ben's Packers)

That means I just have to beat the CPU Vikes to take it.

I have my fingers majorly crossed for no connection issues!!!

yeah, conference record should do it for you. I fully expect you to win final game so have to consider resting players for my last 2 games. I can't drop to #4 so looks like I'm set at #3.

McFadden is due back this week after 2 weeks out.... might be better off saving him for playoffs.

helimachoptor

Actually if anyone is near their xbox could they check how long Best is out for??

McG

helimachoptor wrote: »

McG Shane C is back for the Cardinals and the Bengals play the Cards this game week.... adds more complexity to the mix..

Bengals can still lose to the Cardinals and win the division if the Titans win in week 17. All very exciting. Once this gameweek is complete we can go through all the possibilities again.

McG

helimachoptor wrote: »

Actually if anyone is near their xbox could they check how long Best is out for??

According to EA site, Lito Sheppard is out with dehydration. That's the only injury concern for the Titans

helimachoptor

McG wrote: »

According to EA site, Lito Sheppard is out with dehydration. That's the only injury concern for the Titans

Well at least Best will be back for the key Ravens game... though he has struggled in recent games

etloveslsd

McG wrote: »

According to EA site, Lito Sheppard is out with dehydration. That's the only injury concern for the Titans

I had that with Rober Meecham earlier in the season, it's broken ribs

McG

AFC East
Jets 15-0 (Divisional Champions)
Bills 8-6

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AFC North
Bengals 8-7
Ravens 8-7

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AFC South
Colts 12-3 (Divisional Champions)
Titans 9-6

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AFC West
Broncos 12-3 (Divisional Champions)
Raiders 9-6




Titans 9-6 (Ravens)
Raiders 9-6 (Packers)
Bills 8-6 (Giants, Colts)
Bengals 8-7 (Steelers)
Ravens 8-7 (Titans)


The Bengals win over the CPU Cardinals have left them a win from securing the AFC North and the playoff spot that goes along with it. A loss against the Steelers might even be enough if the Titans beat the Ravens in week 17.

Bills v Giants is the last game left to play this week that affect playoffs.

My guess:
#1: Jets
#2: Broncos
#3: Colts
#4: Bengals
#5: Titans (close call this, but I think Titans edge Ravens)
#6: Bills (by virtue of tiebreaker over Raiders)

McG

There's a reasonable chance that all these teams end up 9-7 which would have the Bengals win their division but I'm not sure how the wildcards would shake out at all.

Titans 9-6 (Ravens)
Raiders 9-6 (Packers)
Bills 8-6 (Giants, Colts)
Bengals 8-7 (Steelers)
Ravens 8-7 (Titans)

helimachoptor

McG wrote: »

There's a reasonable chance that all these teams end up 9-7 which would have the Bengals win their division but I'm not sure how the wildcards would shake out at all.

Titans 9-6 (Ravens)
Raiders 9-6 (Packers)
Bills 8-6 (Giants, Colts)
Bengals 8-7 (Steelers)
Ravens 8-7 (Titans)

Titans will have a better conference record than the Raiders, but a worse record than the Bills. Titans/Ravens are currently tied with 7 conference wins each!!


My prediction will be Bills will take one wild card, Raiders will be beaten by the Packers.

The Titans/Ravens game is going to be a monster clash!
Both teams know that winner takes all and loser gets nothing but ridicule!
Both GMs will know that a turn over could kill them, so i expect this game to be a very much run and punt affair!

mikemac1

McG wrote: »

Titans 9-6 (Ravens)
Raiders 9-6 (Packers)
Bills 8-6 (Giants, Colts)
Bengals 8-7 (Steelers)
Ravens 8-7 (Titans)

Bengals will beat the Steelers and win the AFC North

Then

Ravens beat Titans
Packers beat raiders

Bills and Colts is not relevant to the Ravens

Then Raiders, Ravens and Titans are all equal on 9-7

Ravens have beaten the Titans and also Ravens beat the Raiders way back in week three

So Ravens take a wildcard

Is that right or am I all wrong?
I'm hoping it's right

mikemac1

looking at the Titans post above it seems to be the case

helimachoptor

No youre right mike.
The raiders are out of it IMO
If i win, I go to 10-6 and even if they do aswell I have a better division record.
If you win and they do you beat them H2H.