1st weekend, 2nd week of March - changes coming

Gonzo

I think it's time to move on and forget about the past 14 months, winter is over in 90 minutes, without a doubt i cant remember a winter as bad as this one in terms of relentless mild, cloudy, windy, drizzely muck. The winters from 2002-2007 were truly dire for cold lovers but this winter takes the biscuit altogether.Will be interesting to see just how mild this winter has been when the data comes out. I reckon the majority of February has seen double figure temperatues in at least one location on our island most days of February. Will records be broken in terms of mild and lack of sunshine?

mike65

Sure most Irish winters are Atlantic "muck" this year is far less wet/cloudy/windy than many in the early to mid "naughties" when gale force frontal troughs crashed across every 24-36 hours for weeks at a time.

pistolpetes11

Wild Bill wrote: »

Everyone says we are heading for almost average temps and even (:eek:) a few wintery showers and maybe some frost by the week-end!

Time for Darkman to start a thread????

What

He already did?

Play the ball and not the man please

Deep Easterly

One thing February 2012 will be noted for is the extremely high mean sea level pressure values that were consistent throughout the month.

The IMT (or IMP) mean sea level pressure value is likely to finish at 1029 hPa, which is way above average. Chart below shows the IMT MSLP for the month of February over the last 4 years. Red line represents the 4 year average.


Source: Ogimet (based on daily means taken at 0:00 UTC)

A month of anticyclonic gloom I think Feb 2012 will be famous for in historic chronicles.

Edit: Just looking at the MSLP means for each month of February since 1950 at Claremorris, it is looking like Feb 2012 will finish with the 3rd highest mean MSLP values on record at this station at least. Highest mean monthly value of 1033.2 hPa was recorded in Feb 1965, with the lowest mean monthly value occurring in the following February (1966) when it averaged out at just 994.7 hPa. 2012 mean value at Claremorris likely to finish around the 1028 hPa mark, much higher than its 61-90 average of 1011.8 hPa.
Data C/O European Climate Assessment & Database

Gonzo wrote: »

I think it's time to move on and forget about the past 14 months, winter is over

I think you are right. Winter's holy grail was not found this time around. Time to lay the very weary winter of 2011/2012 to rest.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcfNpfaGejA

pauldry

surprisingly enough the Winter is not the mildest on record according to Met Eireann. They said it was 1 to 2c above average. Outer West saw mildest Winter since 1989. Other parts just a mild winter and the driest since 2006.

BORING!

Now for the most entertaining March on record!

Blizzards, Snow, Cold and the Highest March temperature ever. Yes Highest.:pac:

Sorry Ive just woken up.;)

Joe Public

Gonzo wrote: »

I think it's time to move on and forget about the past 14 months, winter is over in 90 minutes, without a doubt i cant remember a winter as bad as this one in terms of relentless mild, cloudy, windy, drizzely muck.

Why forget it? It's all weather and as interesting as any spell of weather. It may not excite the extremists but it had all the ingredients that make our weather exciting and never fails to surprise.

Harps

Well, if the GFS gets its way then things are going to cool down quite significantly next week with a slack easterly bringing back a late and long overdue taste of winter. Still slim pickings for anything interesting but at least it might be a change from the constant grey boredom

Oscar Bravo

Things without doubt are a tad boring so a heres little link from Boards only a few months ago which was my favourite of the winter,it was sooooo windy around 3am www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056497602

Sponge Bob

Joe Public wrote: »

Why forget it? It's all weather and as interesting as any spell of weather. It may not excite the extremists but it had all the ingredients that make our weather exciting and never fails to surprise.

We probably outperformed the entire northern hemisphere above 50 degrees latitude in February 2012.

Despicable how nobody ever starts a thread when we are top of the temperature pile for once.....eh.!!

Redsunset

As already mentioned if this continues to remain on this track then certainly very interesting.

Min

Quite a horrible forecast for Saturday night and Sunday for parts of Leinster, Munster and Ulster.

From Met Eireann - www.met.ie

There'll be some further showers on Saturday night and they'll become increasingly wintry as temperatures drop close to freezing. There's a risk of some heavy rain and sleet overnight in east Ulster, Leinster and much of Munster, with a risk of snow in places, especially on high ground.

Sunday will be very cold with rain, sleet and possibly snow in eastern parts of Ulster, Leinster and Munster. It will be brighter further west with just a few showers. All areas will become mostly dry by nightfall.

No, no no do not want snow , rain or sleet, the cows will not be impressed, no days out...
The good news is Met Eireann says it will then turn milder, breezy with low amounts of rainfall.

Calibos

Min wrote: »

Quite a horrible forecast for Saturday night and Sunday for parts of Leinster, Munster and Ulster.

From Met Eireann - www.met.ie



No, no no do not want snow , rain or sleet, the cows will not be impressed, no days out...
The good news is Met Eireann says it will then turn milder, breezy with low amounts of rainfall.

Theres no pleasing some people. You got your wish Min. The mildest most farmer friendly Winter in yonks and you're still moaning about 2 or 3 days with a slight risk of snow where the cows might need to stay indoors for a day or two.

ZX7R

There will defently be some snow this weekend, mark vogan does'nt think there will:rolleyes:, its bound to happen so;)

average_runner

Met Eireann says only rain now for the week. Good auld irish weather

arctictree

GFS showing that storm for Sunday:



But ECM seems to have downgraded it.

Min

All is looking good, as John Eagleton said this morning that Spring is 4 to 5 weeks ahead of schedule.
The coming week with have good temperatures and mostly dry, much like the past week

Discodog

When Spring is this early it is critical that we don't get a severe cold snap. The cost to wildlife would be huge as insect supplies would disappear at the time when they are most needed. Agriculture would also be damaged as blossoms fail leading to poor fruit yields etc.

In a time of severe recession this Winter has been a great blessing. People have saved a fortune in heating costs. Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

DOCARCH

Discodog wrote: »

Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

Hopefully not!

We do need some cold to complete the natural yearly cycle and kill off bugs, germs, etc.

Sponge Bob

Min wrote: »

All is looking good, as John Eagleton said this morning that Spring is 4 to 5 weeks ahead of schedule.

You might want a late 2 week cold snap to zap the midges all the same ....otherwise you might find yourself quarantined and boning up urgently on the Schmallenberg Virus!!!!

Macy0161

Discodog wrote: »

When Spring is this early it is critical that we don't get a severe cold snap. The cost to wildlife would be huge as insect supplies would disappear at the time when they are most needed. Agriculture would also be damaged as blossoms fail leading to poor fruit yields etc.

In a time of severe recession this Winter has been a great blessing. People have saved a fortune in heating costs. Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

What'll be the cost to agriculture if more and more "pests" survive winters? And their potential to spread disease and virus' that normally wouldn't make it that far?

Musicman2000

Discodog wrote: »

When Spring is this early it is critical that we don't get a severe cold snap. The cost to wildlife would be huge as insect supplies would disappear at the time when they are most needed. Agriculture would also be damaged as blossoms fail leading to poor fruit yields etc.

In a time of severe recession this Winter has been a great blessing. People have saved a fortune in heating costs. Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

The problem is there is a very cold vortex, when that eventually dose warm up, it could split towards us which could give a very cold end to March and early april and the worst case is a cool wet summer like last year.

kenmc

DOCARCH wrote: »

Hopefully not!

We do need some cold to complete the natural yearly cycle and kill off bugs, germs, etc.

Definitely. Doctors are run off their feet this february because of the amounts of flu and colds going around. By comparison last february it was the quietest they'd seen in years.

cold is GOOD!

darkman2

In relation to Sunday's potential there is a real split as to the track of the shortwave. It's not nailed to miss us just yet. The ECM/UKMO could be wrong putting it so far south. If it it tracks further north there is a snow risk inland.

DOCARCH

darkman2 wrote: »

In relation to Sunday's potential there is a real split as to the track of the shortwave. It's not nailed to miss us just yet. The ECM/UKMO could be wrong putting it so far south. If it it tracks further north there is a snow risk inland.

Yeah - just goes to show. 48 hrs out and no model agreement. Story of the winter carries into spring!

GFS going for a cold rain to snow (for some) event Sunday afternoon for the midlands, south and east.

ECM (and Met E).....nada!

Discodog

Macy0161 wrote: »

What'll be the cost to agriculture if more and more "pests" survive winters? And their potential to spread disease and virus' that normally wouldn't make it that far?

You are missing the point. A cold snap in Winter is fine but it does a lot of damage if it comes after an early spring because buds are on the trees & fledglings need feeding.

This Winter has saved a fortune on feed costs alone.

average_runner

In fairness this year ECM has been dead on, so I go with that and stop praying

austerity2012

Before I get accused of trolling can I just say I am a huge snow/cold/frost fan...however after being out for a run this evening it really feels good that Spring is in the air. Birds singing, cherry blossoms out, kids playing outside, lawns getting first cut... so I not really looking for a cold blast at this stage... however.. we only at the beginning of March and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that a cold blast could hit later in month or indeed April... severe cold is fine between Nov and Feb but its dangerous to wildlife in March onwards

Birdnuts

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The problem is there is a very cold vortex, when that eventually dose warm up, it could split towards us which could give a very cold end to March and early april and the worst case is a cool wet summer like last year.

THats my big fear:( - this astonishing mildness even on the law of probablities has to come to an end at some stage!!, and tonights ECM keeps it going right out to 240hrs.

Wild Bill

Birdnuts wrote: »

THats my big fear:( - this astonishing mildness even on the law of probablities has to come to an end at some stage!!, and tonights ECM keeps it going right out to 240hrs.

Not necessarily. This mild winter was no record breaker - except for the paucity of air frosts - and I expect March/April to compensate for that a bit.

Deep Easterly

Half decent looking front making its way over the SW of the country now. Some heavy showery rain could occur anywhere overnight and first thing tomorrow as it moves up over the rest of the country.



Lovely night here in Co. Galway. Dry with a stiff but warm southerly wind.