1st weekend, 2nd week of March - changes coming

darkman2

Hi all!

It's pretty quiet in here atm understandably nothing tremendously exciting having occured this last week. And nothing exciting is going to occur this coming week either. It's more of the same for much of the coming week but turning more unsettled next weekend. Relatively mild throughout particularly up to Wednesday when temperatures will still be reaching the dizzy heights of 12 or 13c. Gradually cooler thereafter.


It's early days but signs are big changes are evolving in the weather for next weekend onward although timing is skewed across the models. There is reasonable agreement that a much colder Northwesterly flow should initially become established bringing a period of polar maritime conditions and wintry showers, return of night time frosts.

Here the track diverges on what happens next. ATM a continuation of polar maritime regime seems more likely however there is also a lower chance of Northeasterlies becoming established aswell as pressure builds to the Northeast. Watch this space. There is some confidence across the models right now. And no matter what happens we may well see this place light up like a Christmas tree again toward the end of the week!

pauldry

you mean mr weather is going to come back from his season vacation?? :eek:

To Alcohol

Your like a "Terminator" Darman2. You just wont go away. Hope your right though.

Joe Public

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all!
And no matter what happens we may well see this place light up like a Christmas tree again toward the end of the week!

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

sparrowcar

Love it Darkman, good stuff.

I look forward to you starting a thread at the end of July...."Possible cold snap early August"

Now for all the gloom merchants to spoil it.....

cherryghost

Had a look at this development a few days ago but sheesh its so far out it may as well be classed as FI

Nabber

Tis is a long way out.

I'm hoping it stays mild. Days are getting longer. Shorts are coming back into fashion and Northerly flow may just mean we will be cold and wet.

ZX7R

I have been reading the charts also darkman,its a bit out in fi,but deffently worth keeping an eye on.also i said in a past post that we could have a white easter and i still think we will... many of the older folk from around where i live now and where i use to live up near wicklow mountains keep saying to me it will be a snowy easter...

Harps

No real specifics yet but looks like we might actually get a bit of active weather again from next weekend. I'd take anything at this stage really, as long as its a break from this misty drizzle we've had almost constantly for the entire month in the north west

Musicman2000

The trend has being for a colder start to spring in the models over the last 2 weeks, well in FI, But they are starting to show a NE flow if it keeps going with this trend for the next few days, who knows what could happen maybe winter could be making up for lost time:)

odyboody

Ah now lads and lasses, We all know in our hearts and souls it will swivel and any cold will head for the balkans and Greece:rolleyes:

tylercollins

I don't think my heart could cope with the charts going back and forward! I'm all for the weather to move onto the next season now

mickger844posts

For weather fans who most of the visitors in here are its been such a boring 12 months of weather. The seasons have more or less disappeared with very little variations. Something has to give at some stage. Maybe this cold spell will happen but i fear the weather will continue as is. We need some sort of weather event to restore interest.

Gonzo

at this stage i'd rather the mild continue and keep building into a warm and sunny summer saving the proper cold stuff for next winter.

Musicman2000

Gonzo wrote: »

at this stage i'd rather the mild continue and keep building into a warm and sunny summer saving the proper cold stuff for next winter.

I wished it worked that way Gonzo but its Ireland we live in, who knows what the summer will bring, but im sure most of us would love a decent cold blast in the next few weeks to make up for the rubbish winter and this non weather we are stuck in the last few weeks.

Wild Bill

Joe Public wrote: »

I like that so much I just have to re-post it. Bittersweet

Min

mickger844posts wrote: »

For weather fans who most of the visitors in here are its been such a boring 12 months of weather. The seasons have more or less disappeared with very little variations. Something has to give at some stage. Maybe this cold spell will happen but i fear the weather will continue as is. We need some sort of weather event to restore interest.

Debatable from a farming viewpoint, it has been a great 12 months of weather.

We need a heatwave for the interest. I think the cold will just cause depression at this stage with most people looking forward to a decent spring and nice weather.
Snow and ice = not nice

Senna

At this stage i really want to be banned and not allowed to view this forum:(

Nabber

Cold weather gone of the GFS run? Far to early to call it on or off anyways.

This low was undercutting Ireland. Now it swings north over Scotland. We get a weak north westerly after that.

Madpaddy79

The best thing the weather forum has done this winter season is, it has highlighted the fact that weather CANNOT BE FORECAST beyond 3 days.

ednwireland

if i remember my o level geography right we are a temperate climate
i.e. having a climate intermediate between tropical and polar; moderate or mild in temperature;)

mike65

Snow for Paddy's Day?

average_runner

Double figures in temp for the weekend according to MET

Musicman2000

Very nice GFS 12Z run for the cold lovers:)

mickger844posts

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Very nice GFS 12Z run for the cold lovers:)

GEFS 12z similar. Something to watch for the next few days anyway.

pauldry

March certainly will be less boring than February.

But thats not hard after this years FeBOREy

Rebelbrowser

pauldry wrote: »

March certainly will be less boring than February.

But thats not hard after this years FeBOREy

On the basis of this morning's charts there is no sign of any real cold for the foreseeable (inc FI) future. -6's @ 850 make a very brief flirtation once or twice in the next few weeks but that's it.

sunbabe08

oh god noooooooooo:eek: don't think i can another turn of will it won't it game:( it's not fun

Deep Easterly

Just for fun, the ECM 12z run this evening is showing the potential for an occlusion to bring snowfall (esp for high ground) in the southeast of the country as an developing wave depression passes to the south of Ireland sometime early Sunday morning.


Image Source: Vedur.is

Cold air being being drawn into an occlusion as it swings up over the country. 99% chance that it won't happen of course but the actual wave depression itself might be something to watch over the weekend even if that ends up missing us as well (as usual).

EDIT: GFS 12z dosen't really develop the wave feature at all but still on the cool side with just the usual mix of weak wintry type showers that serve no real purpose but to annoy:



Slop!

Wild Bill

Everyone says we are heading for almost average temps and even (:eek:) a few wintery showers and maybe some frost by the week-end!

Time for Darkman to start a thread????

What

He already did?

Deep Easterly

Wild Bill wrote: »

Time for Darkman to start a thread????

What

He already did?

We have to take the scraps where we can find them. But I agree, we are reaching new lows in the search for something interesting in the weather. 2012 continuing the trend of 2011 in spectacular fashion in this regard it would seem.

Gonzo

I think it's time to move on and forget about the past 14 months, winter is over in 90 minutes, without a doubt i cant remember a winter as bad as this one in terms of relentless mild, cloudy, windy, drizzely muck. The winters from 2002-2007 were truly dire for cold lovers but this winter takes the biscuit altogether.Will be interesting to see just how mild this winter has been when the data comes out. I reckon the majority of February has seen double figure temperatues in at least one location on our island most days of February. Will records be broken in terms of mild and lack of sunshine?

mike65

Sure most Irish winters are Atlantic "muck" this year is far less wet/cloudy/windy than many in the early to mid "naughties" when gale force frontal troughs crashed across every 24-36 hours for weeks at a time.

pistolpetes11

Wild Bill wrote: »

Everyone says we are heading for almost average temps and even (:eek:) a few wintery showers and maybe some frost by the week-end!

Time for Darkman to start a thread????

What

He already did?

Play the ball and not the man please

Deep Easterly

One thing February 2012 will be noted for is the extremely high mean sea level pressure values that were consistent throughout the month.

The IMT (or IMP) mean sea level pressure value is likely to finish at 1029 hPa, which is way above average. Chart below shows the IMT MSLP for the month of February over the last 4 years. Red line represents the 4 year average.


Source: Ogimet (based on daily means taken at 0:00 UTC)

A month of anticyclonic gloom I think Feb 2012 will be famous for in historic chronicles.

Edit: Just looking at the MSLP means for each month of February since 1950 at Claremorris, it is looking like Feb 2012 will finish with the 3rd highest mean MSLP values on record at this station at least. Highest mean monthly value of 1033.2 hPa was recorded in Feb 1965, with the lowest mean monthly value occurring in the following February (1966) when it averaged out at just 994.7 hPa. 2012 mean value at Claremorris likely to finish around the 1028 hPa mark, much higher than its 61-90 average of 1011.8 hPa.
Data C/O European Climate Assessment & Database

Gonzo wrote: »

I think it's time to move on and forget about the past 14 months, winter is over

I think you are right. Winter's holy grail was not found this time around. Time to lay the very weary winter of 2011/2012 to rest.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcfNpfaGejA

pauldry

surprisingly enough the Winter is not the mildest on record according to Met Eireann. They said it was 1 to 2c above average. Outer West saw mildest Winter since 1989. Other parts just a mild winter and the driest since 2006.

BORING!

Now for the most entertaining March on record!

Blizzards, Snow, Cold and the Highest March temperature ever. Yes Highest.:pac:

Sorry Ive just woken up.;)

Joe Public

Gonzo wrote: »

I think it's time to move on and forget about the past 14 months, winter is over in 90 minutes, without a doubt i cant remember a winter as bad as this one in terms of relentless mild, cloudy, windy, drizzely muck.

Why forget it? It's all weather and as interesting as any spell of weather. It may not excite the extremists but it had all the ingredients that make our weather exciting and never fails to surprise.

Harps

Well, if the GFS gets its way then things are going to cool down quite significantly next week with a slack easterly bringing back a late and long overdue taste of winter. Still slim pickings for anything interesting but at least it might be a change from the constant grey boredom

Oscar Bravo

Things without doubt are a tad boring so a heres little link from Boards only a few months ago which was my favourite of the winter,it was sooooo windy around 3am www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056497602

Sponge Bob

Joe Public wrote: »

Why forget it? It's all weather and as interesting as any spell of weather. It may not excite the extremists but it had all the ingredients that make our weather exciting and never fails to surprise.

We probably outperformed the entire northern hemisphere above 50 degrees latitude in February 2012.

Despicable how nobody ever starts a thread when we are top of the temperature pile for once.....eh.!!

Redsunset

As already mentioned if this continues to remain on this track then certainly very interesting.

Min

Quite a horrible forecast for Saturday night and Sunday for parts of Leinster, Munster and Ulster.

From Met Eireann - www.met.ie

There'll be some further showers on Saturday night and they'll become increasingly wintry as temperatures drop close to freezing. There's a risk of some heavy rain and sleet overnight in east Ulster, Leinster and much of Munster, with a risk of snow in places, especially on high ground.

Sunday will be very cold with rain, sleet and possibly snow in eastern parts of Ulster, Leinster and Munster. It will be brighter further west with just a few showers. All areas will become mostly dry by nightfall.

No, no no do not want snow , rain or sleet, the cows will not be impressed, no days out...
The good news is Met Eireann says it will then turn milder, breezy with low amounts of rainfall.

Calibos

Min wrote: »

Quite a horrible forecast for Saturday night and Sunday for parts of Leinster, Munster and Ulster.

From Met Eireann - www.met.ie



No, no no do not want snow , rain or sleet, the cows will not be impressed, no days out...
The good news is Met Eireann says it will then turn milder, breezy with low amounts of rainfall.

Theres no pleasing some people. You got your wish Min. The mildest most farmer friendly Winter in yonks and you're still moaning about 2 or 3 days with a slight risk of snow where the cows might need to stay indoors for a day or two.

ZX7R

There will defently be some snow this weekend, mark vogan does'nt think there will:rolleyes:, its bound to happen so;)

average_runner

Met Eireann says only rain now for the week. Good auld irish weather

arctictree

GFS showing that storm for Sunday:



But ECM seems to have downgraded it.

Min

All is looking good, as John Eagleton said this morning that Spring is 4 to 5 weeks ahead of schedule.
The coming week with have good temperatures and mostly dry, much like the past week

Discodog

When Spring is this early it is critical that we don't get a severe cold snap. The cost to wildlife would be huge as insect supplies would disappear at the time when they are most needed. Agriculture would also be damaged as blossoms fail leading to poor fruit yields etc.

In a time of severe recession this Winter has been a great blessing. People have saved a fortune in heating costs. Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

DOCARCH

Discodog wrote: »

Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

Hopefully not!

We do need some cold to complete the natural yearly cycle and kill off bugs, germs, etc.

Sponge Bob

Min wrote: »

All is looking good, as John Eagleton said this morning that Spring is 4 to 5 weeks ahead of schedule.

You might want a late 2 week cold snap to zap the midges all the same ....otherwise you might find yourself quarantined and boning up urgently on the Schmallenberg Virus!!!!

Macy0161

Discodog wrote: »

When Spring is this early it is critical that we don't get a severe cold snap. The cost to wildlife would be huge as insect supplies would disappear at the time when they are most needed. Agriculture would also be damaged as blossoms fail leading to poor fruit yields etc.

In a time of severe recession this Winter has been a great blessing. People have saved a fortune in heating costs. Hopefully it will herald a run of mild Winters.

What'll be the cost to agriculture if more and more "pests" survive winters? And their potential to spread disease and virus' that normally wouldn't make it that far?