This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

TheMilkyPirate

baraca wrote: »

Thursdays storm is still intact on the 18z as far as i can tell so far.

Also a lot weaker and much further south, Centre of low over clare at +96

Big big downgrade.

TheInquisitor

Close the thread....

rc28

A timely lesson for all not to trust weather models forecasting more than 3 days in advance!

km79

So Thursday storm gone. For now....
What the state of play with Tuesdays ?

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

18z downgrages the storm massively!

haha.

See ya in the morning folks!

... and there it is... it was inevitable folks!:rolleyes: still though could just be a hiccup

whiteandlight

Is this not still a pretty windy day for thursday? They still look like fairly substantial winds albeit not as bad as originally modelled? http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_123_windvector.png?dt=Sunday,December%2011,%2020112158:23

corkman123

haha yet again... disappointment... maybe we shouldnt start all this hype till 2 days before each weather system.. starting threads 8/9 days prior to 'serious storms' is ridiculous and inaccurate

M.T. Cranium

I think some here miss the point of a model discussion thread, perhaps it should be an opening line of each post, but the point of it has always been to discuss model output and the weather that could be expected, with a reasonable amount of discussion of certainty. Nobody ever said the models would verify, they simply said, look at these scenarios.

Second point, the 18z GFS is not a massive downgrade. There is still a moderately intense storm rapidly deepening as it tracks northeast across Ireland. Strong winds would likely develop in the south with that scenario.

In other words, the 18z GFS has gone about halfway to where the 12z ECM went. The 18z GEM regional has the same amount of development of the low at 48h as previously on its longer global run.

This is probably nowhere near a closed deal. The changes are related to a longer duration of the first low which continues to look quite strong through Tuesday into Wednesday. What we might want to watch for is an even slower evolution where the first low hangs around and picks up the second low. Then the intensity might return to the eventual scenario.

But anyway, it's all about scenarios, not certainty. Everyone here knows that, we don't need to be lectured by once-a-year visitors to the weather forum. Thanks anyway.

Speak Now

corkman123 wrote: »

haha yet again... disappointment... maybe we shouldnt start all this hype till 2 days before each weather system.. starting threads 8/9 days prior to 'serious storms' is ridiculous and inaccurate

Almost as ridiculous as taking Sunday evening pub run as gospel

Anyway i hope it is downgraded, dont like the idea of what damage such a storm might do just a week before the holidays.

pauldry

ha ha well said MT

windstorms are notoriously fickle beasts and sometimes change course over a day never mind a couple of days before

didnt think the storms could be possibly as severe as models put out but it still will be a pretty wild week

prob branches all over the roads lots of rain and some slates blown off in exposed parts

also there will be power cuts and some beach erosion so a downgrade yes but with the sustained winds of a few days in a row stuff will be thrown all over the place.

aurora 527

corkman123 wrote: »

haha yet again... disappointment... maybe we shouldnt start all this hype till 2 days before each weather system.. starting threads 8/9 days prior to 'serious storms' is ridiculous and inaccurate

Funny i thought the title of this thread was..
This weeks storms forecast, model discussion.
Discussion being the operative word and discussing possible outcomes, i don't think could be classed as hype.

John.Icy

Gotta love the people who probably don't know half of what the major players here do, claiming a victory over people who have been discussing a charts.

I hope it re-develops (quite possible) in the morning and see what they have to say!

whataboutnow

I don't see what everyone is worrying about because of one model the GFS still shows a strong storm and netweather.tv have just released a warning

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerthome

could someone explain what they think is different about this as my knowledge of weather isn't the greatest...thanks

also i live in donegal,how bads it looking here?
cheers

nacho libre

I still think with a series of storm forecast over the last seven- 10 days, it would be very unusual if one doesn't eventually deliver. The Tuesday system seems to have echos of the storm from 1991, in that it could become slow moving. The secondary low could then be the one, as min says, that leads to a surprise. Anyway as as been said if we just stuck to talking about what happens on a given day, this place could get boring. People like WolfeIRE, Paddy1, Weathercheck, Darkman2, Su Campu, Enderman and Maquiladora and others enjoy studying charts and speculating about what may happen. They never claim what they're discussing is definitely going to happen; it's about a possible outcome.

John.Icy

Peferctly put nacho.

El_Dangeroso

As a complete lurker who only half-understands what people are talking about I had a complete understanding this was just discussion and speculation.

It has been a really entertaining few days guys, glued to the updates on this thread. Thanks to all for sharing your thoughts and keeping all the interested updated!

Su Campu

Is that it? You all give up just like that? Jeez if everyone gave up after every bump in the model road then it would be like this....




As I showed earlier, even inside 24 hours the best of the models can miss out on things that can have a big impact later on. Let's just wait and see how things go over the next few runs before joumping off a bridge...

Sponge Bob

aurora 527 wrote: »

Funny i thought the title of this thread was..
This weeks storms forecast, model discussion.

That would be the third title ( look at the edit times in the first post) , previous titles were a tad more prescriptive. :cool:

Mountainsandh

Ah sure never mind the title, we're all adults here, and can use our own judgement regardless. And my respect for the forecasters wouldn't go down one bit were the title to say : "biggest storm in decades" which turned out the biggest flop. That's what this forum's about, forecasting, and getting it wrong is part of it.
This poster said it better than I, and I'm the same, not a clue, but enjoying the excitement ... and the disappointments.:cool:

El_Dangeroso wrote: »

As a complete lurker who only half-understands what people are talking about I had a complete understanding this was just discussion and speculation.

It has been a really entertaining few days guys, glued to the updates on this thread. Thanks to all for sharing your thoughts and keeping all the interested updated!

Sponge Bob

Here is the best model run of the day :cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPFXW58dwnw

whataboutnow

Su Campu wrote: »

Is that it? You all give up just like that? Jeez if everyone gave up after every bump in the model road then it would be like this....




As I showed earlier, even inside 24 hours the best of the models can miss out on things that can have a big impact later on. Let's just wait and see how things go over the next few runs before joumping off a bridge...

I agree,This site is accurate and non farcical they don't over hype and they just released this..
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerts;reg=2;sess=

maquiladora

Got to love these people that 99 days out of 100 dont bother their arse posting or contributing anything beyond "im right, youre wrong lol" to the great discussions we have on here that suddenly lord it over the thread to take pleasure in some kind of oneupmanship over people that post here every day and have a genuine interest in interesting, rare weather.

I genuinely believe that a certain type of folk take a negative immature pleasure from seeing disappointment in others. Its kinda sad, but I find it quite funny myself.

Back on topic, the 0z runs will be very interesting tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing how the UKMO and other models react to these changes.

As anyone who follows these type if threads knows, half the fun of all this is the twists and turns of the unexpected.

The Westerner

Su Campu wrote: »

Let's just wait and see how things go over the next few runs before joumping off a bridge...

Wise words from Su. To others, careful now..........

Ahorseofaman

What time will the 0z's start coming out

WolfeIRE

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

What time will the 0z's start coming out

3:30am

Ahorseofaman

WolfeIRE wrote: »

3:30am

probably wait til morning then

Oscar Bravo

Its coming up to 2355 so lets head over to Met Eireann for the latest.Radio 1.

The Westerner

WolfeIRE wrote: »

3:30am

Thats the GFS isn't it? When would the 0z UKMO and ECMWF be out?

Here's the 18Z HIRLAM for 1600 on Tuesday. Significant event still on for Tuesday maybe?

cherryghost

On a lighter note, the Dew Point and air temps have dropped even further on this run, showing snow may be possible at lower levels Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The latest run has a more north-westerly airflow rather than a strong westerly, so interesting times ahead. Tomorrow morning's 06Z will be interesting though. Only time will tell!

Irish Steve

Just caught the latest sky forecast, and they are still giving warnings of significant weather events on both Tuesday and Thursday.

OK, maybe their models have not caught up yet, but I would have expected them to be softening their tone if it was looking as significantly downgraded as some are suggesting.

BBC farming earlier in the evening were quite specific, and mentioned the yellow alert that is at present in place, with the clear indication that events are not yet certain, and could be upgraded to a higher status nearer the time.

That doesn't sound to me like it's gone away, I wonder if maybe some of the models have been looking at what was being predicted, and effectively saying something along the lines of "It doesn't get that bad, we have to tone this down a bit to avoid being caught out, if we stick with something this extreme, no one will believe us".

Either way, I'm still going to try and get my own station back on line before it arrives, the rain guage reed switch packed up, and it was mounted on a pole on the chimney, so not a quick and dirty fix, and I want to put some extra height into the wind equipment, we're ina dormer bungalow, and it wasn't high enough above the roof to get out of the swirl from some directions, which was distorting some of the direction and strength readings.

If the models are having this much trouble getting it right, with all the power of supercomputers and readings from all over that they are working with, it's small wonder that the (NO Insult intended here at all) enthusiatic amateurs are having trouble with it.

I've been impressed with the level of accuracy and commitment I see here from the regulars, and I have to admit that I tend to look here rather than to ME for accurate reporting of what's going on, apart from actuals and the rainfall radar reports, the ME forecasts are just too vague in terms of the specifics for an area. One or 2 wind arrows and a couple of temperature stickers for the whole country just doesn't hack it for me, I know from experience that there can be 3 or 4 degrees of a change in temperature between here and the airport, and a couple more then between the airport and the coast, and not all of that is elevation related.

Anyway, that's getting away from the discussions about the winds that will, or will not, hit the country later in the week. The snow ( YES SNOW) might be a factor too

It's going to be interesting either way. If the models are right, then we will all have learnt something, if they're wrong, then the model writers will have some work to do.

Steve