The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

Blatter

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Meh, I disagree, Stoke have been in the top flight 4 years now and have always lost their final game of the season, and if history is to repeat itself it was Wigan who guaranteed their safety with their last game of the season at Stoke last year.

I don't like going back that length of time when analysing a bet tbh. I personally just don't think 2/1 is ever a great bet for Bolton away from home in the PL, unless the opposition was Wolves.

Formation wrote: »

qpr have to try to attack... City counter attack lightening fast when qpr leave gaps at the back, its close but I would prefer to be on the other side but will keep the gunpowder dry.

QPR only need a point to virtually guarantee survival, they will park the bus for sure. They did it at OT and only lost the game 2-0, despite being down to 10 men for 80 minutes and a dubious penalty given against them.

You can actually get 40/1 on Sky Bet for a 0-0 in that game. I don't think it'll happen but there's definitely value in it considering what QPR's tactics will be and how well they did at OT with them.

manual_man

Formation wrote: »

De Dannan wrote: »

What do ye think about the asian handicap on Man City v QPR
close to evens on QPR +2.0, 2.5
City just want to win this match for the title. they wont care about goals, can see them shut up shop if they take the lead, maybe 2
cant see them covering the spread of 2.5 ?

qpr have to try to attack... City counter attack lightening fast when qpr leave gaps at the back, its close but I would prefer to be on the other side but will keep the gunpowder dry.

quite the contrary really. qpr need only a draw. City have to win. Sparky will be parkin the bus. I still fancy City to win, but if they're not careful they could be hit with a sucker punch. Fascinating contest alot will depend on the first half hour or so

sboyle01

Man City have won all but one of their home games with a +42 goal difference and QPR have drawn 2 and lost 10 of last 12 away games with -16 gd. QPR have an awful away record but rarely get beaten easily, but I think some people have been underestimating how good this City team is. Just last week a lot of people tipped them to drop point and they came through comfortably. I'd take City on the -2 handicap.

Headshot

Malmo v Helsingborg - Total Goals U/O 2.5 Over 2.5
BK Hacken v Gefle IF - Half Time/Full Time Bk Hacken - Bk Hacken 20/23


Total Stake: € 10.00
Estimated return: € 37.39

kryogen

The whole forum is on Hacken then yes?

I may have to do a cover shot

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

The odds on Olimpia Balti (Moldovan league) have dropped from 2.10 to 1.65...

I have a large single on them and a treble with them, over 2.5 in Vorskla v Metalist and Evian to score a goal @ 3.47

0-0 in the Olimpia game :(:(

Shane St.

Man City are going to go for it.... They are hardly gonna settle on a one goal lead.... It would become unbearably tense if they were only a goal up with 15mins late. City will run up a nice score... can see them winning by 3 or 4

De Dannan

Hacken v Geffe
Hacken like to score looking at their stats
over 2.5 goals 5/6

grohlisagod

All depends on whether City get an early goal. If they do they will win easily but if they don't it could get very tense and I'd fancy a 1-0 win. Could be one to watch in play.

inforfun

6 fold on the Dutch play off matches tonight
Works out @23

1 Goal (both teams to score) RKC v FC Twente
(Goal / No Goal) 10/05/2012 None 1.61 To Run
Can see a 2-1 for either one here.

2 Under 2.5 NEC v Vitesse
(Total Goals) 10/05/2012 None 2.00 To Run
Explained this earlier in this thread. Match finished 1-0 for the away teams during the regular season. Local derby, it will be tight.

3 Under 2.5 Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven
(Total Goals) 10/05/2012 None 2.05 To Run
Same reasoning as with NEC - Vitesse, reg season 1-0/0-0)

4 VVV Cambuur Leeuwarden v VVV
(Draw No Bet) 10/05/2012 None 2.00 To Run
Might do another 4fold and leave this one out. VVV were bad away this season but have the pace up front to score a few

5 Willem II Willem II v Sparta Rotterdam
(Draw No Bet) 10/05/2012 None 1.53 To Run
Both unpredictable during regular season. Sparta have a history of fail in play offs
6 Goal (both teams to score) FC Den Bosch v De Graafschap
(Goal / No Goal) 10/05/2012 None 1.61 To Run
Cant really put any logic to this one, just think they ll both score

Formation

looked at the league table and thought hacken should win this easily.

did a bit of stat work on each teams 7 games so far and I dont think it will be as straight forward as the league table suggests.

definitely not worth the 1.33 pp are offering.

grohlisagod

I got on board the Hacken express. Here's hoping!

buckfasterer

Formation wrote: »

looked at the league table and thought hacken should win this easily.

did a bit of stat work on each teams 7 games so far and I dont think it will be as straight forward as the league table suggests.

definitely not worth the 1.33 pp are offering.

What do you suggest then? Are there any bets that u might take a punt on?

Formation

buckfasterer wrote: »

What do you suggest then? Are there any bets that u might take a punt on?

wouldn't be a game I would punt on. There is no real consistency in either team so far this season.

For example Hacken lost to Kalmar by 2 goals yet Gelfe beat Kalmar.

A new team promoted this season ÅTVIDABERGS has a 8 goal swing in favour of Hacken.

Formation

Hacken are on the scoresheet. Good Luck lads.

Cheeky_gal

Germany U17 v France U17

Germany Draw no Bet @5/6

Will be a close one. Fingers crossed

Formation

Karanka wants to help Ronaldo finish as top scorer

http://www.soccerway.com/videos/spain/primera-division/zvxnvct7a7gd1xovjckenk0uo/

playing Mallorca

yesno1234

yesno1234 wrote: »

Hacken v Gefle - Sweden
Hacken have been leading at half time in 4 of their last 5. Gefle have been losing at half time in 4 of last 5. 1.99 on 188 bet. Hacken 4th in table won 2 of their 3 home games so far, Gefle 2nd last lost 1 of their 3 home, drew 1 won 1. Ht/Ft is only 2.10 so more value in the ht imo.

Hacken have been leading at ht in 5 of their 7 league games this year, might be a bet worth looking at in future.

3-0 Half time, usually bets I post up don't win but, makes for a change, seems I put half the forum onto it:D

Formation wrote: »

its a good analysis but there are very few teams you want to bet on in the ht market. The dynamics differ so much from game to game what happened in the previous 5 games is almost irrevelant. Its not a market I touch anymore.

Not really, some teams tend to be a 1st half team, some a 2nd half team. Just look at Liverpool, tend to come out of the blocks very quickly at home, hit the post sevral times and by the second half match is much more even. Just as some teams are a second half team, i.e. United (at there best have always been a 2nd half team) where by they tend to kill the match off in the 2nd half or clinch it in the case of a close match.
Hacken very clearly tend to be a 1st half team. Wouldn't be surprised if the match finishes 3-1 now or stays at 3-0.

Formation

on the subject of swedish football the overs in the Djurgården v Åtvidaberg game looks nailed on this weekend.

Formation

yesno1234 wrote: »

Hacken very clearly tend to be a 1st half team. Wouldn't be surprised if the match finishes 3-1 now or stays at 3-0.

True but they had 3 shots on target in the first half - Gelfe had 2 (from Flashscore.com).

They had a huge conversion rate when the best teams in the world have a conversion rate of about 20% Hacken had one of 66% in the first half not including the penalty.

I have done a lot of statistical analysis on first half markets and imo they are definitely best avoided.

You can get similar odds on a team -1 as you can on them winning HT/FT and if you run the stats for a full season you will almost certainly have a bigger ROI with the handicap.

Headshot

City v QPR

Im liking the bet that more goals in the 2nd half than the first @ 1/1. First off iirc city like to score their goals in the 2nd half. I can see QPR defending like beavers to get their point and city might be nervous. If city do score in the 1st half, QPR will have to go for the attack which leaves them open to the counter attack, which results in more goals in the 2nd half

I do really like this bet. I hope to go for it tomorrow

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Malmo v Helsingborg - Total Goals U/O 2.5 Over 2.5
BK Hacken v Gefle IF - Half Time/Full Time Bk Hacken - Bk Hacken 20/23


Total Stake: € 10.00
Estimated return: € 37.39

Every little helps

Formation

Headshot wrote: »

City v QPR

Im liking the bet that more goals in the 2nd half than the first @ 1/1. First off iirc city like to score their goals in the 2nd half. I can see QPR defending like beavers to get their point and city might be nervous. If city do score in the 1st half, QPR will have to go for the attack which leaves them open to the counter attack, which results in more goals in the 2nd half

I do really like this bet. I hope to go for it tomorrow

City
30 PL goals in first half
60 PL goals in second half

QPR
32 PL goals conceded in first half
30 Pl goals conceded in second half

Source: ESPN




I like it.

2.1 currently best price.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-qpr/highest-scoring-half

Cheeky_gal

Germany 3-0 France so far !

yesno1234

Formation wrote: »

True but they had 3 shots on target in the first half - Gelfe had 2 (from Flashscore.com).

They had a huge conversion rate when the best teams in the world have a conversion rate of about 20% Hacken had one of 66% in the first half not including the penalty.

I have done a lot of statistical analysis on first half markets and imo they are definitely best avoided.

You can get similar odds on a team -1 as you can on them winning HT/FT and if you run the stats for a full season you will almost certainly have a bigger ROI with the handicap.

They're two bets are completely subjective, certain teams are worth backing ht/ft, certain teams worth backing -1, it completely depends on the team in question.

Nuri Sahin

-Ade- wrote: »

Malmo DNB and Salzburg -1 @ Evens

Salzburg -2 @ 17/10 and -3 @ 4/1

Valsui @ Evens

Gonna stick with the pretty much no write up route, superstitious Stakes vary from 10 euro (-3) to 30 euro. I'll more than likely go for Evian to pick up the home win against Lyon too, nice odds on the home team @ 21/10

Bit of greed when it came to Salzburg but I'm well in profit so happy with that. Valsui, great bunch of lads!

kryogen

I have a double with Hacken and Valur Reykavic (sp?) in it, as you all know Hackem is no issue, but an update in case anybody is also betting on the Iceland league, Valur have shifted out hugely in the odds, from almost 1/2 to 10/11.

I have got my cover bet on anyway, it is a huge shift, not sure why or if it will have any bearing

Nuri Sahin

Evian 21/10

Only tenner stake for interest.

buckfasterer

-Ade- wrote: »

Evian 21/10

Only tenner stake for interest.

Took Lyon myself at 5/4......solely on the fact they still have 4th place to play for.

De Dannan

11/5 for a red card in the Helmond v FC Eindhoven game
five yellows on the pitch