Throw Germany out of Euro

positron

It's a crazy thought - but surely if the Germans have so much of a problem with their fear of inflation, and if that is the primary reason that is holding back euro devaluations and market correction that is needed for rest of Europe, may be the PIIGS and other should come together and suggest Germany leave the Euro currency, and EU can then start the 'quantitative easing' of Euro to suit rest of the countries, and let Germany benefit from (or suffer from low exports) their own decision?

Salmon

Often thought this myself to be honest! Maybe there is a glaring reason why it hasnt been suggested, but it would solve a lot of our problems!!

Scofflaw

The reason the whole crisis revolves around Germany's actions is that Germany (and to a slightly lesser extent France) is the country with the economic strength to guarantee other people's debts - but quite reasonably it's not keen on doing so, because by doing so it makes itself liable for them.

If you "throw Germany out of the euro" then the ECB and the euro loses a huge chunk of firepower and credibility. The bond rates for all the euro countries would surge, and there would be nobody with the economic strength to guarantee them, bail them out, or buy their bonds.

In short, Germany is the keystone of the euro, and taking it out would be tantamount to dissolving the euro.

cordially,
Scofflaw

swordofislam

Scofflaw wrote: »

In short, Germany is the keystone of the euro, and taking it out would be tantamount to dissolving the euro.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Precisely.
Our debt is euro denominated. If we get the Germans out of the Euro our outstanding debt will be eaten up by inflation.
No one can be thrown out of the Euro but the PIIGS and all the non Euro countries with alot of Euro denominated debt should be working to create a situation where the Greeks are the last man standing in the Euro and our Euros really will be EYPΩΣ!:)

positron

swordofislam wrote: »

..our outstanding debt will be eaten up by inflation.[/B]

... which is the standard solution for this sort of economic crysis. Short period of pain, but it would work out better eventually with equal impact on the majority - rather than creating 'too big to fail' entities that are supported by squeezing 'too small to protest' ordinary Joe.

cyberhog

You have as much chance of throwing Germany out of the Euro as a hedgehog has of making it across the M50.

n_i_n_a

Oh you have no idea how much most Germans actually wish to get out of the Euro! Can't blame them really - the average German is struggling, every sixth child is affected by poverty - and here they are paying for lazy Greeks, and useless european goverments.

Is it not pure irony that the European Union was founded with the thought and vision of a united Europe and look at the mess now...Anger, racism and ignorance is rising all over Europe.

meglome

n_i_n_a wrote: »

Oh you have no idea how much most Germans actually wish to get out of the Euro! Can't blame them really - the average German is struggling, every sixth child is affected by poverty - and here they are paying for lazy Greeks, and useless european goverments.

Is it not pure irony that the European Union was founded with the thought and vision of a united Europe and look at the mess now...Anger, racism and ignorance is rising all over Europe.

I suppose you'll be proving that now, will you?

n_i_n_a

n_i_n_a wrote: »

Oh you have no idea how much most Germans actually wish to get out of the Euro! Can't blame them really - the average German is struggling, every sixth child is affected by poverty - and here they are paying for lazy Greeks, and useless european goverments.

Is it not pure irony that the European Union was founded with the thought and vision of a united Europe and look at the mess now...Anger, racism and ignorance is rising all over Europe.

Then most Germans don't have a clue about economics. Their economy has flourished under a ridiculously under priced currency in relation to them and their exports have grown hugely because of this creating employment and wealth. If they left the Euro the German economy would shrink huge levels within a year.

Their wealth is an illusion created by having weak economies like Greece keeping the Euro at an artificially weak level allowing Germany to compete on an unfair footing regards exports.

The Euro was never created as a united Europe, it was a Germanic Franco idea of modern day colonialism via currency, that was motivated by purely selfish reasons and thus it has come to pass.

Empire o de Sun

Clay Squeaking Historian wrote: »

Their wealth is an illusion created by having weak economies like Greece keeping the Euro at an artificially weak level allowing Germany to compete on an unfair footing regards exports

Working hard, economic dicipline, population, and geography and many other things have made Germany successful.

If Germany grows then europe as a whole can grow. A successful economy in Germany is key for Ireland.

Compete on an unfair footing?


Anyway all wealth is an illusion, but that is getting into philisophy.

Fratton Fred

How can you throw Germany out of the euro? Scratch the surface of any euro coin and it has Deutschmark written underneath.

VoidStarNull

Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to debtors. In other words, it's just another way of forcing someone else to pay your debts. Creditors include pension funds, and traditionally pensioners and anyone else on a fixed income have been the big losers during inflations.

If creditor nations such as Germany leave the euro until only the debtors are left, then by definition the debtors will be owing money in foreign currency, not euros. So de-valuing the euro would make the debt harder, not easier, to repay.

BTW - I'm not necessarily against inflation. The trick is to keep the creditors in while you do it. And naturally - they are reliuctant to agree!

thebman

VoidStarNull wrote: »

Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to debtors. In other words, it's just another way of forcing someone else to pay your debts. Creditors include pension funds, and traditionally pensioners and anyone else on a fixed income have been the big losers during inflations.

If creditor nations such as Germany leave the euro until only the debtors are left, then by definition the debtors will be owing money in foreign currency, not euros. So de-valuing the euro would make the debt harder, not easier, to repay.

BTW - I'm not necessarily against inflation. The trick is to keep the creditors in while you do it. And naturally - they are reliuctant to agree!

Germany isn't quite as debt free as the media makes them out to be though, it is just less of a problem there, it is still a problem.

Otherwise they'd probably have left already

Wurzelbert

anyone seriously suggesting throwing germany out of the euro obviously does not understand the euro or the eu itself and probably has no concept of european history beyond the “official” version (as written by those who won the last two european wars)…

without germany, the eu and the euro would and could not exist:
the eu, in its root idea, is really nothing else than the treaty of versailles all over again in a more refined and less aggressive form (after the original had lead to another war)…
and as for the euro: since the french and english were not strong enough to prevent german reunification back in 1990 (and they did try), the euro - an older idea nobody ever really wanted - was pulled out of the drawer and helmut kohl’s government basically had to agree to its introduction so france and england would give up their resistance and let the german people reunite…the purpose of the euro has always been to take control of its own currency and economy (thus its own destiny) away from the german nation in an attempt to weaken and control an enlarged (as compared to the post-war era) germany for the foreseeable future…
the whole eu and euro system can only work as long as the germans pay the bills…and the eu needs germany more than germany needs the eu…

charlemont

n_i_n_a wrote: »

Oh you have no idea how much most Germans actually wish to get out of the Euro! Can't blame them really - the average German is struggling, every sixth child is affected by poverty - and here they are paying for lazy Greeks, and useless european goverments.

Is it not pure irony that the European Union was founded with the thought and vision of a united Europe and look at the mess now...Anger, racism and ignorance is rising all over Europe.

Its a shame, That's what it is..

Lantus

Germany may well decide that getting out first is a better idea!

Inflation is a big cheat of monetary policy that allows all our work and goods to be worth less just becasue the banks continually print more money to provide more loans.

The fact that we are all 'wishing' for QE is a total reliance on a broken system. It will never make things better in the long run. All we are doing is selling what is left of our souls to a banking system that was designed from day 1 to be flawed so we would all fail.

BettyM

Lantus wrote: »

Germany may well decide that getting out first is a better idea!

Inflation is a big cheat of monetary policy that allows all our work and goods to be worth less just becasue the banks continually print more money to provide more loans.

The fact that we are all 'wishing' for QE is a total reliance on a broken system. It will never make things better in the long run. All we are doing is selling what is left of our souls to a banking system that was designed from day 1 to be flawed so we would all fail.

Many things are a big cheat. Borrowing billions ( ie incresing taxation tomorrow to pay the interest and capital back) to pay today's current account bills, for example.

We are in this mess because we voted for politicians who were of poor quality. And we continue to vote for rotten politicians, and so the mess continues, as our politicians are now merely actors, playing out a part, and they no longer have the will, or the ability, to lead anywhere, their only priority seeming to be to get themselves reelected.

In 1979 the UK voted in a Tory government led by Mrs Thatcher. She faced a similar situation Ireland now faces, with bloated government spending and budgets and debts out of control. She identified the problem ( too much borrowing too much spending too much debt) and her solution led to the UK, in a few short years, moving from being the "sick man of Europe" to being the 4th largest economy in the World.

Ireland's politicians, those who the irish have voted for, have concluded that the country is up to is oxters in debt, the debt being so big it is threatening to sink the island, and their solution is to.....borrow more money.

Worse still, they also are actually lobbying to hand over control of the countries finances, in perpetuity, to unelected faceless bureaucrats outside the Island, and to finally take away democratic accountability on how the irish are taxed. When the full implications of this are realised, should it come about, then who knows where that will lead.

Wurzelbert

and to add to my previous post: you could not „throw germany out of euro“ as that would mean the immediate end of the euro and the eu as we know it. also i don’t think there even is a provision in the treaty for throwing out any country…that’s why greece, spain, italy and portugal cannot simply be kicked out…

meglome

BettyM wrote: »

Worse still, they also are actually lobbying to hand over control of the countries finances, in perpetuity, to unelected faceless bureaucrats outside the Island, and to finally take away democratic accountability on how the irish are taxed. When the full implications of this are realised, should it come about, then who knows where that will lead.

Thankfully that's not what's actually happening. Firstly we are the EU as much as anyone is, this isn't about 'faceless bureaucrats', the EU has always worked on unanimity. We decide what taxes are levied and the new body that oversees our spending is an Irish one created in Irish law.

BettyM

Wurzelbert wrote: »

and to add to my previous post: you could not „throw germany out of euro“ as that would mean the immediate end of the euro and the eu as we know it. also i don’t think there even is a provision in the treaty for throwing out any country…that’s why greece, spain, italy and portugal cannot simply be kicked out…

I know I couldn't throw anyone out of the Euro.

The Euro has proved to be a complete and utter disaster for the people of the EU, akin to a doomesday machine and a massive destroyer of jobs and wealth.

It is a cancer which has spread its tentacles throughout the EU destroying joba and wealth, just as was predicted before it was launched, and the EU diagnosis seems to be that you save the cancer and ignore the patient.

I can't do anything, but events will. A year ago I was laughed at for saying that it was only a matter of time before Greece left the Euro, and was told the EU would save Greece and would never let it leave the Euro, that there was no "mechanism" for them to leave the Euro and so on.

The EU has long been telling us all that the Euro would be the saviour of Europe, a currency to rival the USD, and would herald a new dawn across Europe. Even when the flaws were pointed out and that the Euro was more likely to prove a disaster for the people of Europe, the grand project would not be stopped.

The Euro is doomed and the EU still doesn't get it. doesn't get that they can't manipulate and bully and beat the world markets into submission. Facts are facts, and not just what we would like them to be, and it's a disgrace that so many of us still believe that the Euro is the answer to our problems, rather than the cancer which is causing many of the current problems.

Scofflaw

BettyM wrote: »

I know I couldn't throw anyone out of the Euro.

The Euro has proved to be a complete and utter disaster for the people of the EU, akin to a doomesday machine and a massive destroyer of jobs and wealth.

It is a cancer which has spread its tentacles throughout the EU destroying joba and wealth, just as was predicted before it was launched, and the EU diagnosis seems to be that you save the cancer and ignore the patient.

I can't do anything, but events will. A year ago I was laughed at for saying that it was only a matter of time before Greece left the Euro, and was told the EU would save Greece and would never let it leave the Euro, that there was no "mechanism" for them to leave the Euro and so on.

The EU has long been telling us all that the Euro would be the saviour of Europe, a currency to rival the USD, and would herald a new dawn across Europe. Even when the flaws were pointed out and that the Euro was more likely to prove a disaster for the people of Europe, the grand project would not be stopped.

The Euro is doomed and the EU still doesn't get it. doesn't get that they can't manipulate and bully and beat the world markets into submission. Facts are facts, and not just what we would like them to be, and it's a disgrace that so many of us still believe that the Euro is the answer to our problems, rather than the cancer which is causing many of the current problems.

It would be nice if you actually proved your claims, rather than just repeatedly stating that they're "facts". Politics is rife with "facts" that "everyone knows", which turn out almost immediately to be rubbish the moment you choose to research them.

cordially,
Scofflaw

BettyM

Scofflaw wrote: »

It would be nice if you actually proved your claims, rather than just repeatedly stating that they're "facts". Politics is rife with "facts" that "everyone knows", which turn out almost immediately to be rubbish the moment you choose to research them.

cordially,
Scofflaw

To me the Euro has proved to be a disaster. If you judge the Euro has been a great success, bringing wealth and properity to Ireland and Greece and Spain, than we disagree, which is a perfectly legitimate and happy place for us both to be in.

It may well be that you don't think Greece will leave the Euro, followed by other countries and followed by the inevitable collapse of the Euro as we know it. It may even be that you wil be proved right if thats what you do, indeed, judge. If I were a betting man I'd offer you a bet, but I am not.

Wurzelbert

Clay Squeaking Historian wrote: »

Then most Germans don't have a clue about economics. Their economy has flourished under a ridiculously under priced currency in relation to them and their exports have grown hugely because of this creating employment and wealth. If they left the Euro the German economy would shrink huge levels within a year.

Their wealth is an illusion created by having weak economies like Greece keeping the Euro at an artificially weak level allowing Germany to compete on an unfair footing regards exports.

The Euro was never created as a united Europe, it was a Germanic Franco idea of modern day colonialism via currency, that was motivated by purely selfish reasons and thus it has come to pass.

you forget that germany’s economy flourished long before and without the euro and that germany has been among the top three exporting nations worldwide for many decades (and we’re only talking post-war here)…so to say germany needs the euro is simply nonsense and a political lie…and to say the euro was a “germanic franco idea of modern day colonialism via currency” is also not really accurate, while the colonialism part is surely true as far as france is concerned…
and as for germany’s wealth being an illusion…well, i think you might have to readjust your perspective a little…everything else i have said in post # 14.

Scofflaw

BettyM wrote: »

To me the Euro has proved to be a disaster. If you judge the Euro has been a great success, bringing wealth and properity to Ireland and Greece and Spain, than we disagree, which is a perfectly legitimate and happy place for us both to be in.

On that basis we would neither agree nor disagree, though. What I'm asking is for you to show that the euro is responsible for the problems, rather than reiterating that there are problems in certain countries which use the euro.

Because, you see, there are plenty of similar problems in countries which don't have the euro, and plenty of countries which use the euro and don't have the problems.

Please don't just repeat yourself, and try telling me how the euro caused the problems in question.

BettyM wrote: »

It may well be that you don't think Greece will leave the Euro, followed by other countries and followed by the inevitable collapse of the Euro as we know it. It may even be that you wil be proved right if thats what you do, indeed, judge. If I were a betting man I'd offer you a bet, but I am not.

Er, personally I'd say it's an even bet, were I a betting man, which I'm not. If they don't leave the euro, it won't be for lack of messing about on their part, and will come down to the willingness of others to keep them in.

Again, though, that's Greece, not the euro. I'm not sure what property of the euro required a country to overspend and cook its books.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm not sure what property of the euro required a country to overspend and cook its books.

cordially,
Scofflaw

If you change the word "required" to "enabled" in your statement above, you have a far more useful line of thought which highlights a lot of the structural weaknesses in the entire experiment.

beeftotheheels

BettyM wrote: »

To me the Euro has proved to be a disaster. If you judge the Euro has been a great success, bringing wealth and properity to Ireland and Greece and Spain, than we disagree, which is a perfectly legitimate and happy place for us both to be in.

Except that the facts tend to only support one side of the argument.

We, the Greek and the Spanish people are richer now that we were when we introduced the euro, even after all the "austerity".


http://product.datastream.com/dscharting/gateway.aspx?guid=4a59aad1-c706-40d5-b216-b9a198ddd6cd&action=REFRESH

darkhorse

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Except that the facts tend to only support one side of the argument.

We, the Greek and the Spanish people are richer now that we were when we introduced the euro, even after all the "austerity".


http://product.datastream.com/dscharting/gateway.aspx?guid=4a59aad1-c706-40d5-b216-b9a198ddd6cd&action=REFRESH

The "we" that you refer to in your post, I have to be honest with you, does not include the majority in the country ie working class, minimum earners, welfare receipients and maybe there might be more out there like me and some of my peers. just struggling all through life to try and pay bills. I know you are just showing us official gov data, but in reality the graphs do not mean anything to ordinary man, woman and child. Hands up those who agree, hands up those who dont,

beeftotheheels

jbyrne10 wrote: »

The "we" that you refer to in your post, I have to be honest with you, does not include the majority in the country ie working class, minimum earners, welfare receipients and maybe there might be more out there like me and some of my peers. just struggling all through life to try and pay bills. I know you are just showing us official gov data, but in reality the graphs do not mean anything to ordinary man, woman and child. Hands up those who agree, hands up those who dont,

But it does. If ever body earned the same income/ drew the same benefits as they did in 2000 our books would be completely balanced and we'd have no need of a bailout.

But wages went up, benefits went up, and with them spending and more importantly expectations went up.

I remember learning what my starting salary was to be in 1999 and thinking I'd be rich (given my expectations were those of an impoverished student).

If I was offered that same salary today I wouldn't know how to live on it.

But when I was a student going to Tesco looking to see which of the foods that were almost out of date had been reduced the most, the notion of buying a fresh chicken breast not approaching its sell by date would have struck me a luxury.

Now, the idea of not buying an organic free range chicken breast strikes me as cruel. I've developed principles along with my wages inflating, because I've become able to afford them.

I'm not suggesting that everyone out there has had the same wage inflation I've had, or that they have developed "posh" notions like eating organic meat. But every body will have seen changes to their expectations, changes they can rationalize (like me thinking farmed chicken is cruel and therefor buying organic free range).

It is much easier to not give someone a pay rise, than to give them one and then try to take it back later because of this.

The cold hard numbers suggest, that even with the present austerity, we are still the country which has benefited the most from Euro Membership. We shouldn't allow our recent pain cloud that. Yes we're worse off than we were in 2008. But we're still way better off than we were in 2000.

AVN_1

positron wrote: »

It's a crazy thought - but surely if the Germans have so much of a problem with their fear of inflation, and if that is the primary reason that is holding back euro devaluations and market correction that is needed for rest of Europe, may be the PIIGS and other should come together and suggest Germany leave the Euro currency, and EU can then start the 'quantitative easing' of Euro to suit rest of the countries, and let Germany benefit from (or suffer from low exports) their own decision?

I agree with you that either Germany has to leave the Euro Zone or the other 5-8 countries should leave. As of now Germany is the main beneficiary of the Euro Zone and the most difficult "partner" to deal with in any Euro Zone related negotiations.

AVN_1

n_i_n_a wrote: »

Oh you have no idea how much most Germans actually wish to get out of the Euro! Can't blame them really - the average German is struggling, every sixth child is affected by poverty - and here they are paying for lazy Greeks, and useless european goverments.

Euro Zone is not about "lazy Greeks", Euro Zone is about German crooks, who manipulated the currency in their favor and stole hundreds of billions Euro from the pockets of the countries with previously weaker currencies.

AVN_1

Empire o de Sun wrote: »

Working hard, economic dicipline, population, and geography and many other things have made Germany successful.

If Germany grows then europe as a whole can grow. A successful economy in Germany is key for Ireland.

Compete on an unfair footing?


Anyway all wealth is an illusion, but that is getting into philisophy.

You are probably too young to remember that before creation of the Euro Zone Germany was in stagnation for 15 years, while Ireland was growing 7-15% a year. Since we were manipulated to join the Euro Zone, we lost our economic strength.

AVN_1

Wurzelbert wrote: »

and the eu needs germany more than germany needs the eu…

No, the other way around, Germany cannot succeed without stealing wealth from the countries with weaker currencies.

AVN_1

BettyM wrote: »

I know I couldn't throw anyone out of the Euro.

The Euro has proved to be a complete and utter disaster for the people of the EU, akin to a doomesday machine and a massive destroyer of jobs and wealth.

It is a cancer which has spread its tentacles throughout the EU destroying joba and wealth, just as was predicted before it was launched, and the EU diagnosis seems to be that you save the cancer and ignore the patient.

I can't do anything, but events will. A year ago I was laughed at for saying that it was only a matter of time before Greece left the Euro, and was told the EU would save Greece and would never let it leave the Euro, that there was no "mechanism" for them to leave the Euro and so on.

The EU has long been telling us all that the Euro would be the saviour of Europe, a currency to rival the USD, and would herald a new dawn across Europe. Even when the flaws were pointed out and that the Euro was more likely to prove a disaster for the people of Europe, the grand project would not be stopped.

The Euro is doomed and the EU still doesn't get it. doesn't get that they can't manipulate and bully and beat the world markets into submission. Facts are facts, and not just what we would like them to be, and it's a disgrace that so many of us still believe that the Euro is the answer to our problems, rather than the cancer which is causing many of the current problems.

+1, Fully agree with you, the Euro is our main problem, until we leave the Euro Zone there will be no light at the end of the tunnel.

AVN_1

Wurzelbert wrote: »

you forget that germany’s economy flourished long before and without the euro and that germany has been among the top three exporting nations worldwide for many decades (and we’re only talking post-war here)

1) Oeah, Germany was paralyzed in stagnation for 15 years and without creation of this filthy Euro Zone it still would be there.

2) On a per capita basis, Ireland has exports almost 3 times higher than Germany

AVN_1

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Except that the facts tend to only support one side of the argument.

We, the Greek and the Spanish people are richer now that we were when we introduced the euro, even after all the "austerity".


http://product.datastream.com/dscharting/gateway.aspx?guid=4a59aad1-c706-40d5-b216-b9a198ddd6cd&action=REFRESH

But we would be much richer should we not join the Euro Zone

AVN_1

beeftotheheels wrote: »

The cold hard numbers suggest, that even with the present austerity, we are still the country which has benefited the most from Euro Membership.

:eek::D You are wrong, we are among the main losers.

K-9

The button to the right of the quote button can be used to multi quote posts rather than post 8 posts in a row basically saying the same thing.

beeftotheheels

AVN_1 wrote: »

But we would be much richer should we not join the Euro Zone

Evidence for this (and have you patented your quantum leap machine)?

AVN_1 wrote: »

:eek::D You are wrong, we are among the main losers.

Evidence? I posted mine, where is your evidence to refute it (and your "thoughts" don't constitute evidence)?

AVN_1

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Evidence for this (and have you patented your quantum leap machine)?

Evidence? I posted mine, where is your evidence to refute it (and your "thoughts" don't constitute evidence)?

Look at the growth we used to have before joining the Euro Zone and compare it with the current.

beeftotheheels

AVN_1 wrote: »

Look at the growth we used to have before joining the Euro Zone and compare it with the current.

I posted data, from a reputable source being Thompson Reuters, demonstrating that we have benefited the most from EZ Membership.

Either post hard data which disproves this, or stop offering your "thoughts" as fact.

AVN_1

beeftotheheels wrote: »

I posted data, from a reputable source being Thompson Reuters, demonstrating that we have benefited the most from EZ Membership.

Either post hard data which disproves this, or stop offering your "thoughts" as fact.

OK. My source - IMF:

Ireland

1) Annual figures (GDP Growth, constant prices):

1991 = 1.64%
1992 = 3.58%
1993 = 2.31%
1994 = 5.89% (Celtic Tiger born)
1995 = 8.88%
1996 = 7.60%
1997 = 10.92%
1998 = 7.80%
1999 = 9.92%
2000 = 9.30%
2001 = 4.79% (9/11 and dotcom bubble bust)
2002 = 5.87% (We join the Euro Zone)
2003 = 4.16%
2004 = 4.51%
2005 = 5.34%
2006 = 5.31%
2007 = 5.18%
2008 = - 2.97%
2009 = - 7.00%
2010 = - 0.43%
2011 = 0.71%

In the current prices the difference would be even bigger.


2) Gross domestic product, constant prices, local currency:

10 years prior the Euro Zone:

End of 1991 – 66.87 billion
End of 2001 – 132.34

Growth over the period 97.9%

10 Euro Zone years:

End 2001 – 132.34
End of 2011 – 161.03

Growth over the period 21.7%

3) Gross domestic product, current prices, local currency:

10 years prior the Euro Zone:

End of 1991 – 38.05 billion
End of 2001 – 118.12

Growth over the period 210.4%

10 Euro Zone years:

End 2001 – 118.12
End of 2011 – 156.44

Growth over the period 32.4%


4) Gross domestic product per capita, constant prices, local currency:

10 years prior the Euro Zone:

End of 1991 – 18,966.4
End of 2001 – 34,398.5

Growth over the period 81.4%

10 Euro Zone years:

End 2001 – 34,398.5
End of 2011 – 35,150.5

Growth over the period 2.2%

5) Gross domestic product per capita, current prices, local currency:

10 years prior the Euro Zone:

End of 1991 – 10,793.4
End of 2001 – 30,703.4

Growth over the period 184.5%

10 Euro Zone years:

End 2001 – 30,703.4
End of 2011 – 34,147.3

Growth over the period 11.2%



…..Now the same indicators, but in the US dollars:


6) Gross domestic product, current prices, U.S. dollars:

10 years prior the Euro Zone:

End of 1991 – 48.42 billion
End of 2001 – 105.79

Growth over the period 118.5%

10 Euro Zone years:

End 2001 – 105.79
End of 2011 – 217.67

Growth over the period 105.8%

7) Gross domestic product per capita, current prices, U.S. dollars:

10 years prior the Euro Zone:

End of 1991 – 13,732.9
End of 2001 – 27,498.7

Growth over the period 100.2%

10 Euro Zone years:

End 2001 – 27,498.7
End of 2011 – 47,512.8

Growth over the period 72.8%

So, we can easily notice that if we exclude dollar to Euro devaluation effect the economic growth during the Euro Zone period was minimal, whereas during the Punt epoch we significantly benefited from the economic growth both in absolute values and on a per capita basis.

We could also have a look at the enormous negative changes in our unemployment, current account, public debt, and budget since we joined the Euro Zone; however I believe it is already clear for everyone that joining the Euro Zone was a mistake, an enormous mistake for Ireland.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=1980&ey=2012&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=178&s=NGDP_R,NGDP_RPCH,NGDP,NGDPD,NGDP_D,NGDPRPC,NGDPPC,NGDPDPC,TM_RPCH,TX_RPCH,LUR,GGR,GGR_NGDP,GGX,GGX_NGDP,GGXCNL,GGXCNL_NGDP,GGSB,GGSB_NPGDP,GGXONLB,GGXONLB_NGDP,GGXWDN,GGXWDN_NGDP,GGXWDG,GGXWDG_NGDP,NGDP_FY,BCA,BCA_NGDPD&grp=0&a=&pr.x=60&pr.y=10

beeftotheheels

AVN_1 wrote: »

OK. My source - IMF:....

Okay, you've proven that you can post a lot of data. You've also proven that you cannot answer the question asked.

I stated that we had benefited the most from the Eurozone. You denied this.

The only relevant data here is growth during Eurozone Membership (per the chart that I posted). Growth prior to EZ membership does not in any way disprove my statement that we had benefited the most from Membership of the Eurozone.

Leaving that aside, our growth rate prior to accession to the Eurozone can in no way, shape or form, be used to extrapolate that we'd have continued to have had similar growth rates outside the zone, especially given our growth within the zone was excessive and led to a property bubble, the collapsing of which still leaves us significantly better off than we were prior to joining the single currency.

Do you really think we could have had an even bubblier (and yet sustainable) bubble outside the zone?

AVN_1

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Okay, you've proven that you can post a lot of data. You've also proven that you cannot answer the question asked.

You've proven that you cannot work with the data and read the posts. The data which proves that we would be even richer should we not join the Euro Zone.

AVN_1

beeftotheheels wrote: »

especially given our growth within the zone was excessive and led to a property bubble, the collapsing of which still leaves us significantly better off than we were prior to joining the single currency.

Do you really think we could have had an even bubblier (and yet sustainable) bubble outside the zone?

Our property bubble is another negative by-product of our Euro Zone membership. German and some other European banks flooded us with cheap Euro loans, inflating the prices, and then German-controlled ECB has burst the bubble, forcing us transfer the private bank debt into the public one. Should we stay outside the Euro Zone we wouldn't have the same problem.

darkhorse

beeftotheheels wrote: »

But it does. If ever body earned the same income/ drew the same benefits as they did in 2000 our books would be completely balanced and we'd have no need of a bailout.

But wages went up, benefits went up, and with them spending and more importantly expectations went up.

I remember learning what my starting salary was to be in 1999 and thinking I'd be rich (given my expectations were those of an impoverished student).

If I was offered that same salary today I wouldn't know how to live on it.

But when I was a student going to Tesco looking to see which of the foods that were almost out of date had been reduced the most, the notion of buying a fresh chicken breast not approaching its sell by date would have struck me a luxury.

Now, the idea of not buying an organic free range chicken breast strikes me as cruel. I've developed principles along with my wages inflating, because I've become able to afford them.

I'm not suggesting that everyone out there has had the same wage inflation I've had, or that they have developed "posh" notions like eating organic meat. But every body will have seen changes to their expectations, changes they can rationalize (like me thinking farmed chicken is cruel and therefor buying organic free range).

It is much easier to not give someone a pay rise, than to give them one and then try to take it back later because of this.

The cold hard numbers suggest, that even with the present austerity, we are still the country which has benefited the most from Euro Membership. We shouldn't allow our recent pain cloud that. Yes we're worse off than we were in 2008. But we're still way better off than we were in 2000.

Hi BOTH,

There is no point in me typing a half dozen paragraphs. Read the subsequent posts. I rest my case.
John

View

AVN_1 wrote: »

OK. My source - IMF:

Ireland

1) Annual figures (GDP Growth, constant prices):

1991 = 1.64%
1992 = 3.58%
1993 = 2.31%
1994 = 5.89% (Celtic Tiger born)
1995 = 8.88%
1996 = 7.60%
1997 = 10.92%
1998 = 7.80%
1999 = 9.92%
2000 = 9.30%
2001 = 4.79% (9/11 and dotcom bubble bust)
2002 = 5.87% (We join the Euro Zone)
2003 = 4.16%
2004 = 4.51%
2005 = 5.34%
2006 = 5.31%
2007 = 5.18%
2008 = - 2.97%
2009 = - 7.00%
2010 = - 0.43%
2011 = 0.71%

In the current prices the difference would be even bigger.
[

Ammm, we "joined the Eurozone" on the same day as its other "founder members" - January 1st 1999 - not 2002 as you seem to believe.

If you note our highest GDP growth occurred in the years immediately after and before (when our interest rates/associated cost of servicing our debts were dropping rapidly in anticipation of Ireland joining the Euro) we joined it.

Being 3 years out on when we joined the Eurozone is a serious oversight.

AVN_1

View wrote: »

Ammm, we "joined the Eurozone" on the same day as its other "founder members" - January 1st 1999 - not 2002 as you seem to believe.

If you note our highest GDP growth occurred in the years immediately after and before (when our interest rates/associated cost of servicing our debts were dropping rapidly in anticipation of Ireland joining the Euro) we joined it.

Being 3 years out on when we joined the Eurozone is a serious oversight.

80-90% of the negative impact from the Euro Zone came when the actual Euro currency was introduced, 01/01/2002, so why I assess it this way.

View

AVN_1 wrote: »

80-90% of the negative impact from the Euro Zone came when the actual Euro currency was introduced, 01/01/2002, so why I assess it this way.

Using 3 year's worth of data related to us being in the Euro Zone (and that ignores the pre-Euro "anticipation" effect) to bolster your case for us not being in the Euro Zone is a serious error. Hence, your analysis is based on a flawed premise at best.

Starting with a conclusion and working your way backwards to "prove" a point is nonsense.

AVN_1

View wrote: »

1) Using 3 year's worth of data related to us being in the Euro Zone (and that ignores the pre-Euro "anticipation" effect) to bolster your case for us not being in the Euro Zone is a serious error. Hence, your analysis is based on a flawed premise at best.

2) Starting with a conclusion and working your way backwards to "prove" a point is nonsense.

1) Main effect from the Euro on our economy came only after introduction of the actual Euro currency in 2002, that's the fact, beforehand we even didn't notice it.

2) I did my calculations and found out the highly negative impact from the Euro on our economy a long time ago, but as some people wanted the proof I had to provide it here.

3) If you don't have any serious arguments on the numbers, better don't get involved and don't drag the discussion away from the main topic.

View

AVN_1 wrote: »

1) Main effect from the Euro on our economy came only after introduction of the actual Euro currency in 2002, that's the fact, beforehand we even didn't notice it.

Events that happened 3 full years or more after we joined the Euro zone!

The fact that you didn't notice we had joined the Euro zone doesn't mean it didn't effect us - an effect you ignore by wrongly attributing it to our "pre-joining the Euro zone" period in your calculations.

AVN_1 wrote: »

2) I did my calculations and found out the highly negative impact from the Euro on our economy a long time ago, but as some people wanted the proof I had to provide it here.

Well, as shown already your calculations are based on a serious error hence as "proof" are meaningless.

AVN_1 wrote: »

3) If you don't have any serious arguments on the numbers, better don't get involved and don't drag the discussion away from the main topic.

An argument that you are using a false data point when you are calculating the numbers is a very "serious" argument particularly as it undermines the basis for your discussion and conclusion.

Wurzelbert

AVN_1 wrote: »

No, the other way around, Germany cannot succeed without stealing wealth from the countries with weaker currencies.

if you understood some basics like, for example, that you cannot compare a country the size of a big city (population-wise) to a country with about 20 times the population that is (and has been since the late 19th century, not to mention the middle ages) a major player on the global stage (economic and other), and if you had a clue of things like the development of the german economy in the decades before the euro or the impact of reunification on germany and its economy in the 90s, and if you had an understanding of germany’s overall role in europe in the last 1200 years, then you wouldn’t be writing half-truths and plain nonsense like in some of your posts here…

and btw, where else would ireland go (economically) after joining the eu in 1973? even further down into poverty?

i do agree with you though in that the euro should never have been introduced…it was the price germany had to pay for reunification and it can only work as long as germany pays the bills (as is the case with the eu as a whole)…like it or not…