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Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    Interesting timing for the US Department of Defence to hold an EMP attack drill...

    http://pix11.com/2017/11/01/will-the-department-of-defense-emp-drill-shut-down-power-grid-no/


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,091 ✭✭✭ aaakev


    Madness! Anyone else think trump will fire the first shot??


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,091 ✭✭✭ aaakev


    my3cents wrote: »
    Tabnabs wrote: »
    North Korea now has a ICBM capable of hitting anywhere in the mainland USA and, potentially even more devastating, an EMP capable device that would paralyse a significant portion of the USA for years. US preppers upping their stocks and getting ready for the worst case scenario.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42162462

    Good old EMP, its been dissed before as being a very unlikely scenario but the more we become reliant on electronics for everything the more likely it becomes.

    You won't be controlling you home from your phone after an EMP attack.

    I wonder how badly banks would be affected?
    Never thought about the banks, that would make the whole thing worse if you couldn't get your cash out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,769 ✭✭✭ my3cents


    aaakev wrote: »
    Never thought about the banks, that would make the whole thing worse if you couldn't get your cash out.

    All the stuff I read (long ago) was related to phone lines with relay type switching. Now with everything chip powered I think that chances of damage would be much worse.

    Why target a defense base or center of population when you can do air bursts over likely locations of data farms?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,091 ✭✭✭ aaakev


    Yeah makes sense alright, back to the stone age they go then


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    (CNN)It's hard to predict when war will break out, but Sweden wants to make sure that it's populace is always prepared for the worst.
    The Swedish government is reissuing an instructional war pamphlet to all 4.8 million households in the country, informing them for the first time in more than 30 years on the perils of war.

    The brochure, titled "Om krisen eller kriget kommer (If crisis or war comes)," was compiled by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) and instructs civilians on what to do if "their everyday life was turned upside down."

    The brochure provides information on everything from how to identify fake news and prepare against extreme weather conditions to what to do in the event of terror attacks and military conflicts.

    The 20-page pamphlet, featuring illustrations of soldiers in the field, people fleeing disaster zones and cybersecurity teams at their computers, is an update on a version first produced during the Second World War and last released in the 1980s.

    "We all have a responsibility for our country's safety and preparedness, so it's important for everyone to also have knowledge on how we can contribute if something serious occurs," MSB General Director Dan Eliasson said in a statement, according to the Swedish website The Local.

    Sweden remained a neutral country during the World War II and has not been at war for 200 years. But the pamphlet warns the populace not to become complacent.

    The pamphlet is prompted partly by the "security situation in our neighborhood," meaning the Baltic area, a Civil Contingencies Agency spokesman told CNN in January 2018.

    The pamphlet's republication comes as the security debate on whether Sweden will join NATO has intensified following alleged Russian violations of Swedish airspace and territorial waters. Sweden is not a member of NATO, but it has contributed to NATO-led operations and enjoys bilateral ties with the alliance through the Partnership for Peace and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.

    Sweden has been investing heavily in its defense strategy across the country, reintroducing conscription and also positioning troops on the strategically important island of Gotland.

    The country suspended conscription in 2010 and instead adopted a recruitment system which relied on volunteers.

    But it changed tack in March 2017, announcing conscription would return in 2018.

    The decision to boost defense spending by $720 million over five years was taken in February 2015 -- but Sweden is lacking suitable numbers for its defense forces.

    According to government figures provided in March, the armed forces were 1,000 troops short in terms of full-time squad leaders, solders and sailors.
    The plan aims to ensure there are 6,000 full-time members serving with 10,000 available on a part-time basis.

    In May 2017 Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist told CNN: "The Russian regime has showed they are ready to use military powers to fulfill political goals."

    The pamphlets will be distributed in 13 different languages between May 28 and June 2 during Sweden's Emergency Preparedness Week.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/22/europe/sweden-security-war-brochure-russia-intl/index.html

    And a link to the pamphlet in English: https://www.msb.se/Upload/Forebyggande/Krisberedskap/Krisberedskapsveckan/Fakta%20om%20broschyren%20Om%20krisen%20eller%20Kriget%20kommer/If%20crises%20or%20war%20comes.pdf


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    As well as the mention of x3 cheese formats, the Swedes have a named a specific soup in their booklet, which sounds more like a light squash that a regular hearty stew:

    ilPnpTX.png

    No mention of iodine anywhere, but hummus does feature.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,769 ✭✭✭ my3cents


    As well as the mention of x3 cheese formats, the Swedes have a named a specific soup in their booklet, which sounds more like a light squash that a regular hearty stew:

    ilPnpTX.png

    No mention of iodine anywhere, but hummus does feature.

    Those lists are never going to be perfect but 10 out of 10 for effort.

    wtf are salmon balls? I didn't think Salmon had balls but then again I don't think the translation takes regional differences into account.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    Salmon balls are meatballs with salmon instead. Yeah, Swedes...

    My personal highlight from the pampllet was the paragraph entitled "If Sweden is attacked, resistance is required" with
    If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,769 ✭✭✭ my3cents


    Off topic but re: "meatballs" https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/174377/could-the-vorlons-be-responsible-for-every-race-having-invented-swedish-meatball?rq=1 .

    Edit> From the pamphlet it was interesting to note that the Swedes have shelters for everyone, my first thought was how large a brown envelope you'd need to even find out where one if they exist at all is here.


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭ touts


    I particularly liked the line

    "Your municipality is responsible for ensuring that services including care of the elderly, the water supply, the fire and rescure service and schools continue to function, even in the event of a societal emergency. "

    As I read it I couldn't help think our government will probably claim in the next election that their failure on all of those is actually a cunning plan to harden the Irish people up so we are ready in the event of wartime conditions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭ touts


    my3cents wrote: »
    Off topic but re: "meatballs" https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/174377/could-the-vorlons-be-responsible-for-every-race-having-invented-swedish-meatball?rq=1 .

    Edit> From the pamphlet it was interesting to note that the Swedes have shelters for everyone, my first thought was how large a brown envelope you'd need to even find out where one if they exist at all is here.

    Apparently there's a bunker under Government buildings for everyone who counts and one in Athlone in case they are filling potholes and chasing coffins when the balloon goes up. The rest of us? Well that's why we're on this forum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 37 Le Loup


    SNAKEDOC wrote: »
    if the world went tits up tomoro the first place i would go is a garden centre and get as many seeds trees and such as i could. i'd get supplies for farming and simply go self sufficient. then i'd stop off at the nearest gunsmith and look into getting a rifle not to go killing foke but to hunt with. there is my food supply restored straight away. fruit veg and meat. plenty of water about. time to get planting. there was a time when most people in this country survived on nothing but potatoes so id say we could do it again
    If tshtf tomorrow, it may be too late for you to do anything in your favour, many other people will be doing the same thing. If you are serious about survival, & the possibility of a TEOTWAWKI situation, then you need to be preparing now. Having your own place is a very good start, but that place needs to be up & running now, off grid & self sufficient. On top of this you need to be ready to leave if you are unable to protect what you have. This means having a bag ready to go, the right sustainable equipment, & the right primitive skills.
    Keith.


  • Registered Users Posts: 535 ✭✭✭ morebabies


    Le Loup wrote: »
    If tshtf tomorrow, it may be too late for you to do anything in your favour, many other people will be doing the same thing. If you are serious about survival, & the possibility of a TEOTWAWKI situation, then you need to be preparing now. Having your own place is a very good start, but that place needs to be up & running now, off grid & self sufficient. On top of this you need to be ready to leave if you are unable to protect what you have. This means having a bag ready to go, the right sustainable equipment, & the right primitive skills.
    Keith.

    Would there even be a point in having a vegetable garden up and running, as surely others would come and raid it, unless your home defense system was secure. Any ideas?

    Also, does anyone think Brexit could be a trigger for chaos? The media is talking a lot about Doomsday scenarios but I can't tell if they're sensationalising or is a hard Brexit going to genuinely cause major disruption.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    morebabies wrote: »
    Would there even be a point in having a vegetable garden up and running, as surely others would come and raid it, unless your home defense system was secure. Any ideas?

    Also, does anyone think Brexit could be a trigger for chaos? The media is talking a lot about Doomsday scenarios but I can't tell if they're sensationalising or is a hard Brexit going to genuinely cause major disruption.

    Both largely irrelevant, to any proper SHTF event.

    Brexitous is simply an economic inconvenience (aside from a possibilie new influx of uncontrolled mass migration). Goods import/export may not even be affected, just services (TBC).

    Veg gardens would only suit a full proper economic collapse (when shops have zero stock), or for general everyday money saving. In a WW3 it would quickly become useless due to fallout/contamination.

    So too would the 'fancy idea of Jets' https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057874718. In WW3 the immediate concern here would be mass 'invasion' from both i) refugees (including from very near neighbours), and/or from ii) a cold front axis in the very unlikely event they defeat Nato.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭ touts


    morebabies wrote: »
    Also, does anyone think Brexit could be a trigger for chaos? The media is talking a lot about Doomsday scenarios but I can't tell if they're sensationalising or is a hard Brexit going to genuinely cause major disruption.

    A hard brexit will have a similar economic impact as the recession 10 years ago. I certainly wouldn't be buying a house right now. If it was worth 80k 7 years ago then it's likely to be close to that in 2 years time even if the asking price is 400k now. Prepping for that is don't buy a house.

    If you work in Agrifood you're basically ****ed. You'll be priced out of the UK market with tariffs and the cost of shipping will increase so much you'll be priced out of the continental market. Prepping for that is start looking for another job in another sector now. Most people I know who work in Agrifood are doing that.

    Lots of things we buy online from websites that end in .co.uk will no longer be available to us. If you buy something on sites like amazon.co.uk it'll cost a lot more and take weeks to get through customs so they will just stop shipping to Ireland. The likes of Amazon.de or .fr won't want to be bothered with shipping stuff to that little sparsely popluated island hundreds of miles away. So prepping for that is stock up on anything you buy online.

    And even in the bricks and mortar shops things will become much more expensive if they are available at all. For most companies we are part of a market called "UK and Ireland" and they just send stuff over to us in the same way that they ship to Liverpool or Brighton or Glasgow. Well that ceases to exist from March 2019 and we become our own market which is too small and far away to be bothered with. Things will literally disappear from the shelves. And even if they do decide to stick with us then it will be because they have hiked the price so much it will be worth the hassle. Tariffs and Hassle factor will send inflation through the roof here. How do you prepare for that? Start to get really on top of your monthly/werkly budget process.

    Travel to and from the UK will become more difficult. Customs points, passport checks, maybe even visas as it is unlikely the EU will want Irish people having more rights than Germans when it comes to entering and leaving the UK. Prepping for that? Make sure your passport is in date and do that Game of thrones tour you are interested in or go see your favourite premiership team one last time before March.

    A hard border in the north won't impact on most people but if you happen to live close to it and travel over and back frequently you're ****ed even more than the Agrifood sector. Roads will be blocked and patrolled. Queues at access points will be something akin to the checkpoints at the US Mexico border. Long and slow. Prepping for that. Pick a side and live/work there. The handful of people who have a farm that stretches on both sides of the border will basically be forced to give it up. There is little prepping for that.

    I could go on but you get the picture. That's a hard brexit. A few months ago I'd have said it's not likely. Now I'd say it's 50/50. We are basically in the hands of squabbling children.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    Economic inconvience isn't 'Survivalism'. Goods to/from the UK may still be readily available under the 'common rule book' on goods export/import, bar some slight excess in fees.
    Travel to NI (UK) will be largely unaffected (border backstop), and even to London won't be darastically different.

    If Labour call a snap election and win, Brexit will be watered down further to a very weak tea.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,947 ✭✭✭ touts


    Economic inconvience isn't 'Survivalism'. Goods to/from the UK may still be readily available under the 'common rule book' on goods export/import, bar some slight excess in fees.
    Travel to NI (UK) will be largely unaffected (border backstop), and even to London won't be darastically different.

    If Labour call a snap election and win, Brexit will be watered down further to a very weak tea.

    A SHTF situation isn't only about aliens invading or a commet hitting. For many people losing their job because Boris Johnson is a twat IS the end of the world as they know it and is a SHTF situation. The philosophy of prepping is about being prepared for all events even the likely ones. Prepping for the unlikely ones is just a fun hobby. Prepping for the likely ones is a smart lifestyle.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    touts wrote: »
    A SHTF situation isn't only about aliens invading or a commet hitting. For many people losing their job because Boris Johnson is a twat IS the end of the world as they know it and is a SHTF situation. The philosophy of prepping is about being prepared for all events even the likely ones. Prepping for the unlikely ones is just a fun hobby. Prepping for the likely ones is a smart lifestyle.

    Perhaps, maybe the phrase 'Survivalism & Self Sufficiency' is too wide-ranging or has implied leaning towards actual SHTF.

    Boris Johnson is now a redundant figure, and irrelevant to any point here.

    A veg garden is a useful hobby, and a good idea of your are in Brexit, not the rest of the EU.

    In life you can't prepare for 'all possible' scenarios, and with brexit in particular know one actually knows what will happen. Some of the fear based comments above (based beyond the worse-case scenarios), are fanciful at best.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    Actually on second thoughts the amount of press coverage in the last days regarding a 'hard-on Brexit' could well indicate a (slight) 'Brexit Armageddon’ hit the fan scenario.

    There's increasing talk of a no deal, so for 11pm GMT March 29 2019 it could get messy (perhaps more so for the UK).

    From today's press
    Some supermarkets could run out of food within a couple of days. Nearly a third of food in UK supermarkets comes from the EU and reaches shelves in two days.
    Some estimates say food prices could go up by 20 per cent. The British Retail Consortium says the average tariff on EU food imports would be 22 per cent.

    A spokesman for the Wine and Spirit Trade Association said: ‘There must be mechanisms to allow cross-border trade of wine and spirits the moment we leave the EU.’ If not, wine and spirits may ‘not get on to the shelves’

    UK's Food exports to mainland-EU will only be allowed to go via Le Havre and Dunkirk, which can't handle that capacity. They'll either close the farms or longhaul it all off to China.

    New tariffs could increase the cost of imported cars to the UK by £1,500 on average.

    Ports: trucks will each face delays of 2/3mins per vehicle. (Roads blocked with tailbacks).

    The flights bloackage thing is very highly unlikely, and not in anyones interest anyway.

    Needless to say, if in the EU or the UK, stock up on your fav bread/sauce/wine/beer/beef/holiday/car... next March.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,769 ✭✭✭ my3cents


    morebabies wrote: »
    Would there even be a point in having a vegetable garden up and running, as surely others would come and raid it, unless your home defense system was secure. Any ideas?

    ....

    If you don't have a vegetable garden up and running then I at least hope you keep a few seeds and seed potatoes just in case you do need to start one.

    My point being if you don't plan to grow your own initially where do you think you will get the seeds later on?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,091 ✭✭✭ aaakev


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    Been doing this since i got my new car. My brother in law had his car broken into a while back like that, they didnt take the car though


  • Registered Users Posts: 535 ✭✭✭ morebabies


    my3cents wrote: »
    If you don't have a vegetable garden up and running then I at least hope you keep a few seeds and seed potatoes just in case you do need to start one.

    My point being if you don't plan to grow your own initially where do you think you will get the seeds later on?

    I would like to have one up and running, but you'd need it under 24 hour guard I'm guessing as other people would be desperate.

    Article in yesterday's Guardian about stockpiling food for a no-deal Brexit scenario:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2018/jul/12/a-no-deal-brexit-survival-guide-what-food-to-stockpile?CMP=share_btn_fb


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,769 ✭✭✭ my3cents


    morebabies wrote: »
    I would like to have one up and running, but you'd need it under 24 hour guard I'm guessing as other people would be desperate.

    Article in yesterday's Guardian about stockpiling food for a no-deal Brexit scenario:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2018/jul/12/a-no-deal-brexit-survival-guide-what-food-to-stockpile?CMP=share_btn_fb

    Interesting point to ponder? How much of our food comes through the UK from Europe and how will it be affected by Brexit?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,554 ✭✭✭ Pat Mustard


    my3cents wrote: »
    if you don't plan to grow your own initially where do you think you will get the seeds later on?

    Might be a good time for a thread on seeds. They may have been done before but maybe time for another one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    my3cents wrote: »
    Interesting point to ponder? How much of our food comes through the UK from Europe and how will it be affected by Brexit?

    If you're in Ire, you might have a surplus of foodstuffs and thus even lower prices due to over-supply. 28% of all exports (to) the UK are food and live animals.

    If you're in the UK (exc NI) you might start planting a veg garden - and this is only if there is a hard-on brexit (not a soft one, that allows for free trade of goods, and only excludes services).

    The actual main items imported from the UK to Ire are:
    1). Fuels inc. Oil
    2). Machinery
    3). Electronic Eq

    Foodstuff value from there come in at numebr 8/9 (after perfumes/cosmetics).
    If it's from EU, then it just needs re-routing to come from their ports directly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 518 ✭✭✭ imokyrok


    my3cents wrote: »
    Interesting point to ponder? How much of our food comes through the UK from Europe and how will it be affected by Brexit?
    I'm starting to get concerned about this. We are actually more exposed on imports that we are on exports. From what I've been reading a hard Brexit is going to cause pandemonium in the supply chains for Britain and given much of our supplies come through Britain......

    I'm concerned about food and medicines for the months of will take to sort it all out. I hope to christ the government has contingency plans in place.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sam Dazzling Numerology


    imokyrok wrote: »
    I'm starting to get concerned about this. We are actually more exposed on imports that we are on exports. From what I've been reading a hard Brexit is going to cause pandemonium in the supply chains for Britain and given much of our supplies come through Britain......

    I'm concerned about food and medicines for the months of will take to sort it all out. I hope to christ the government has contingency plans in place.

    If Ireland? Sure more food and medicines/pharma are sent out to the UK, (and elsewhere) than are brought in.

    They have a population x14 times bigger to feed, but landmass (with max farming availabilty) maybe only x2.8 greater.

    One thing that can forsee going up in price for Ire is fuel. Also machinery and tech/electronic/niche products as they're the main imports.


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