Sonnkys Horse Racing Tips

sonnky

Okay lads, with the National Hunt season getting into full gear I'm going to keep a log of all my bets. They will mainly be on Saturday racing and the top class racing. As I am still a schoolboy I won't have much midweek.

I'll start with a 100 points balance.

sonnky

Newcastle
2.10 [StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)]

Only five go to post for this Grade one hurdle over two miles. It is a top class renewal though with Overturn, Celestial Halo and Binocular the contenders. These 3 are rated well clear of the other two runners in the field who are really just making up the numbers.

Binocular is going to go off an odds on shot, and although the pace will be suiting him I just don't fancy him to win. He has been beaten on his seasonal debut in the past two renewals of this and is too short for me.

Overturn is a front runner who runs all year round. He has improved rapidly in the last year and a half. Since a win in March last year he has gone up 64 pounds. But this may be a step too far.

The best priced of the three is Celestial Halo and I am going to take a speculative punt on him today. He impressively won at Wincanton three weeks ago, although Grandouets fall made life easier. He is a better stayer than Binocular and Overturn and could run them into the ground. He could be held up though like in the Aintree hurdle 2 years ago when he fell when about to challenge. The only thing that could go against him though is his pace but I fancy him too win this.

Celestial Halo 2 Points win @ 7/2

sonnky

Uttoxeter
2.40[Oddschecker.com Handicap Chase]
North Stack 5 points win @ 2/1(Bet365)
No time for reasoning, but a good bet I think.

sonnky

1.25[MAJORDOMO HOSPITALITY HANDICAP CHASE]
Knockara Beau 1pts e/w @ 11/2
Should go close

sonnky

Wolverhampton 17.20
A 5 runner nursery doesn't usually bring much interest but this evening it is with Flying Trader being the selection.

The race will have plenty of pace with the front running trio of Ocean Tempest, Chelsea Mick and the favourite Titus star. It will be difficult for Titus Star returning after two days though.

Flying Trader stayed on well over a mile at Lingfield last time and should go close here.

1.5 points e/w @ 7/4

P.S Sorry for the lateness but the race hasn't started yet.

sonnky

Sorry for the late notice but a first winner for this thread.

Total Bet: 12 Points
Winnings: 8.66
Profit/Loss: -3.34

Total Bets: 4
Wins: 1
Places:1

Win%: 25%

sonnky

Wolverhampton 6.50

A competitive handicap here with quite a few in with a good chance. The one with the best chance in my opinion is Master Of The Song. The four year old won at Southwell on the all weather in October off a mark of 51. He ran off 63 on the next occasion 2 weeks ago here.

That race was over a mile and a furlong, whereas his win was over today's trip of one mile and four. He stayed on in the nine furlong race and the winner has since gone on to win. If he can get into the lead here he might prove hard to catch as was during that victory. He is one from one for his runs over the distance. He might be allowed a bit of a run here as many of these are held up.

Master Of The Song 1.5 points e/w @ 8/1

sonnky

Master Of The Song weakened after being very keen early on. If he manages to settle he can pick up a handicap somewhere. An impressive performance from Spartan King in fourth and he is one to watch after a poor start, he made up a lot of ground but weakened late on.

-3.00 points for that race.

sonnky

Ascot 3.35

A very competitive handicap hurdle here over two miles on soft ground. One that I fancy here is Act Of Kalanisi. A 16/1 shot who carries 10-1 although his riders seven pound claim will also be utilised.

On his only run here he won. That was in a very competitive handicap hurdle over two miles and four and that was on soft ground. On that occasion he had a mark of 130 and David Bass was claiming five pounds. Today he will just carry two pounds more, with the talented Brendan Powell claiming 7 pounds.

He is only having a sixth start over hurdles and is still quite unexposed. He was running a good race on his comeback behind Celestial Halo but eventually he weakened to finish third.

There will be a lot of horses held up here but this one likes too be near the pace. Marsh Warbler could prove too be a front running danger aswel as the Ruby Walsh ridden Prospect wells. An outsider to look out for is Alarazi last years Imperial Cup winner. But I think that act of Kalanisi is best handicapped here and if running too form he should go close.

Act Of Kalanisi 2 points e/w @ 16/1

sonnky

Ascot 2.30

Big Bucks continues to dominate staying hurdles at the highest level and has 13 wins in a row. Dynaste is a main challeneger but the one that intersts me is Sparky May.

This mare won four times over hurdles before finishing second behind the brilliant Quevega at Cheltenham. She was beaten at Aintree when favorite and only fourth on her reappearance at Newbury three weeks ago. However her most impressive performance came here back in January when she beat Carole's Legacy by four lengths over today's distance(1 furlong shorter). On that day she traveled smoothly before staying on really well. The soft ground will be too her liking here and she has a real chance of a place. It will be difficult to win though.

Sparky May 1 point e/w @ 20/1
Sparky May 1 point win @ 7/1 w/o Big Bucks

sonnky

-7.00 points on a poor day.

Sparky May never really settled behind Big Bucks and weakened towards the end although Timmy Murphy didn't give her an awfully hard time.

Act Of Kalanisi meanwhile helped too make the pace and was fighting for the lead around the home turn, outpaced after that he finished a creditable fifth behind the each way fancy of the race Raya Star. I think Act Of Kalanisi will be better over farther, his win here over two miles four back in February.

Kempton 3.15 Rock Canyon 1pt e/w @ 14/1(Ladbrokes)

6 go to post for this Class 5 nursery and a speculative punt is taken on outsider Rock Canyon. Still a maiden after 5 starts, he has shown some glimpses of ability. Very disappointing in his last race, he has been given a bit of a break and is now fitted with cheek-pieces, as he often fails to settle.

Jim Crowley is an interesting jockey booking as-well. I'd fancy him too nick a place though.

sonnky

Navan 3.05(Rescheduled for tomorrow)
Moville 1pt e/w @ 6/1(Ladbrokes)
Tiernans Terror .5pts e/w @ 25/1(General)

A handicap chase with not much form on offer, Ill take a chance on Moville, A JP McManus horse. Two runs at Navan and two wins for him. He has ran over today's trip three times finishing third on one occasion and out of the frame on the other. He wheres first time Tongue-tie which should improve although his mark might be a little stiff he looks one of the likelier winners. His main opposition could be Leggy Lad, but he has top weight. Tiernans Terror could be one to watch at 25/1. Ill have little punt on him as-well.

sonnky

Bangor 12.40 Canal Bank 2pts @ 11/4

Canal Bank has a good chance tomorrow of recording his second victory in a row. Successful over 3 weeks ago at Market Rasen over three miles and five furlongs, he has been raised just five pounds for that victory.

AP McCoy has gone for the top weight here, Afistfullofpebbles but he is returning from almost a year off. Richie McLernon rides this one.

The only worry for this one is the Heavy ground, on which he has never really run on. Should he handle it though he can win. A challenger could be Phardessa in first time Tongue-tie.

sonnky

Bangor 12.40 Canal Bank 2pts @ 11/4

Canal Bank has a good chance tomorrow of recording his second victory in a row. Successful over 3 weeks ago at Market Rasen over three miles and five furlongs, he has been raised just five pounds for that victory.

AP McCoy has gone for the top weight here, Afistfullofpebbles but he is returning from almost a year off. Richie McLernon rides this one.

The only worry for this one is the Heavy ground, on which he has never really run on. Should he handle it though he can win. A challenger could be Phardessa in first time Tongue-tie.

sonnky

Kempton 1.25 Trafalgar Bay 2pts @ 7/1

The second race on St Stephens’s day at Kempton is a fairly competitive looking 13 runner novice’s handicap chase. Many of these inexperienced chasers are in with a chance of winning this; none more so than Charlie Longsdons Trafalgar Bay.

Trafalgar Bay made a return over hurdles in November after almost two years off the track. He travelled well before weakening which is excusable and in the end he was only beaten by over 6 lengths in eight place. Then at Sandown three weeks ago he made his debut over fences and despite not jumping well he stayed on to repel the challenge of Loch Ba, who re-opposes. That win came on good to soft ground, and that will be the going at Kempton.

That was also the going when he turned in perhaps his best performance, back in 09 in a listed hurdle at Newbury over 2miles. On that occasion he stayed on well and was closest near the finish so Monday’s trip should suit him better. That day he ran off a mark of 126, so he should be able to run nicely off Monday’s 125, 6 pounds higher than his win three weeks ago.

If anything is to stop him winning it could be his jumping, which wasn’t the best first time out over fences but is sure to have improved. Loch Ba who is now getting one pound more than the Sandown race could be of interest. But the only reason he got so close the last day is probably because of Trafalgar Bay’s jumping. That’lldoboy for Paul Nicholls may be too high in the handicap but looks the next best.

sonnky

Kempton 2.35 Overturn 3pts@ 5/2
The Christmas Hurdle is shaping up to be a really good affair, with last year’s first and second re-opposing as well as one of the top novices from last season. Sanctuaire was a decent novice handicapper and could nick a place but my pick is Overturn. Last year he finished in second behind Binocular here but has improved immensely and beat Binocular in the fighting fifth to claim a first Grade One victory.

He has had a few nice runs on the flat during the summer to keep him going. He then won at Perth off top weight in August. This was the first of three consecutive wins. He then won a Grade Two at Ascot over two miles, although Oscar Whiskey fell at the last, it looked as though Overturn would take his scalp. He then won the fighting fifth with a fine front running performance, before he didn’t quite get up the hill at Cheltenham last time out.

In last year’s Christmas hurdle Overturn had previously been off the track for 150 days. Almost a marathon time for him. This may not have suited him as he usually runs all year round. His main threat could prove to be Rock On Ruby. Rock On Ruby is likely to prefer farther but the entry of Sanctuaire could be to utilise him as a pacemaker for Rock On Ruby to turn it into a staying contest. I find it hard to see Binocular winning although he is unpredictable. Overturn still looks the safe option.

sonnky

Leopardstown 12.25
Knockalayde Euro .5pts e/w 16/1
Glam Gerry 2pts win @ 9/2

A competitive chase here for conditional jockeys and it should go the way of the inexperienced Glam Gerry. Thrived when switched to handicap hurdles, today's trip should suit and the ground will be of no worries. He jumps his fences well and has had three starts finishing outside the places, altough this may have been to get a nice handicap mark.

Knockalayde Euro has an each way shout in this, looked liked winning at Down Royal when crashing two out. He was subsequently pulled up last time out and now runs off the same mark as the Down Royal race. He had some decent form as a novice and was favorite for a big novice handicap at Punchestown, he could go close.

sonnky

Newbury 2.35
Rey Nacardo 2pts @ 5/2
Den Of Iniquity 1pt e/w @ 9/1

This 3m 2f event at Newbury looks too me a three horse race, between Quito De Poctans, Den Of Iniquity and Rey Nacardo.

I think Rey Nacardo will probably win this. He stays the trip well and the ground will be no problem. Its really hard to see him not winning this as its not that competitive. For a horse that has been placed in all his starts over fences he has a lenient mark here. A big race is expected here.

The other selection Den Of Iniquity is less straight forward. This trip will suit him and he'll love the ground. His form this sesson hasn't been great but the were in better class races. Ferdy Murphy is good at training lomg distance horses and with Paddy Brennan up he should get a place. If he gets into a jumping rhythm he could even win.

sonnky

So over my last two races, I have got 2 winners. +5 points from Rey Nacarado's win although it was seven, barring Den Of Iniquity.
Rey Nacarado was the only one who really traveled although he didn't stay as well as I thought and was tired at the end. Den Of Iniquity didn't jump very well but he stayed in it for a long way before quickly fading.

Glam Gerry +11 points was well backed and was always going well eventually scoring well by an easy eight lengths. Knockalayde Euro was not so good and got out paced, but is still one to watch. -1 pt on him

Total Bet: 41 Points
Winnings: 23.66
Profit/Loss: -17.34

Total Bets: 18
Wins: 3
Places: 2

Win%: 16.66%

Not going well so far but a few nice wins and am starting too get back up after a really poor run of picks. Onwards and upwards, will have some picks for tomorrow later.

sonnky

Cheltenham 1.35 Richards Sundance 2pts win @ 6/1

Richards Sundance was a good second in this event last year off a seven pound higher mark. Since then his form has not been great, not finishing the three times after that race and fourth both starts this term. January has always brought him some good places and wins so I'm hoping that is lucky for him. His January record over jumps is 2-3-1-2-P. He was pulled up in a 3m 5f event on heavy ground so that can be passed over.

Victor Dartnall's horses are running well at the moment and Denis O Regan is in good form of late and two out of two from his last two rides. He has a live chance if finding form.

sonnky

Cheltenham 2.10 Cape Tribulation 1pt e/w @ 14/1

A tricky grade 3 handicap here at Cheltenham and I have plumped for the quirky but talented Cape Tribulation. Although he has only won 3 times in his career he has finished high up in good races. His course record reads 5-2-0. He was fifth in a 3mile grade 1 and second behind Zaynar over todays trip. He was 13th in a world hurdle here as well.

This season he was 5th in the fixed brush at Haydock, before being pulled up early on there. He made a mistake at the 4th and was pulled up two fences later.

He was top weight that day and the ground was very testing. Paddy Brennan may have saved him by pulling up that day. He has a nice weight today. The ground will suit and the problem could be the trip as it may be too short. I'd be hoping for a good run here.

sonnky

Southwell 3.00 Dancing Freddy 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1

Not much time,but his previous form is better than his price says. A sneaky 1.

sonnky

Huntingdon 2.30 Brushford 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1

Not the most obvious choice in this 2m 5f, Class 5 handicap chase, going by recent form, but I honestly think he has a great chance here.

He hasn't completed in any of his last four starts, falling once and pulling up the other three times. Those trips were all over three miles or more, so he has excuses. His last win was almost two years ago, On soft ground at Fontwell over todays trip. On that occasion he was 11 pounds higher than he will be today. He has also got a good claimer on board and he takes five pounds off.

If he returns to that sort of form he should win this as it's not the strongest in terms of quality. The ground is a major factor here as many of todays runners haven't fared well on it. I'd expect Brushford too come close if running near form with the main opposition being Chord,if he handles the ground and Beau Colonel.

sonnky

Just two for today. Yesterday was a disaster and I will update the stats later on.

Lingfield 1.50 Morar 1pt e/w @ 25/1

In most peoples book Ashbrittle will win this 2mile maiden hurdle easily today, but I think that Morar at 25/1 could have a real shout.

A winner over 110yards shorter here on the flat so the trip should be no bother although in the future he will stay farther. The ground was soft on that occasion and he has always run well in bad underfoot conditions so today's heavy ground should be no bother. If Colm Bolger can get a good tune out of him, jumping wise, he has a realistic chance of winning and definite place claims.

sonnky

Sedgefield 2.10 Soul bid 1.5pts e/w @ 22/1(Stan James)

An interesting handicap hurdle and the nod is given to handicap debutante Soul Bid who is 22-1 with Stan James. On his three hurdle runs he hasn't shown much, although he think he may have been running to get a Handicap mark.

Second last time out, albeit by 20 lengths and fourth before that behind the decent Hazy Tom he has shown some sparks of ability and looks like a bit of an improver. The trip and course are no problems nor is the ground, so I'd be hoping for a good run here.

The only problem could be that he is a bit to high in the handicap, but definetly in for a good run.If he doesn't run well here, I will definetly stick him in the tracker as he is one to watch.

sonnky

And so another poor few days, Richards Sundance fell at the sixth at Cheltenham and so didn't give us much of a run. -2.00 pts.

Cape Tribulation ran a fantastic race, doing his best work at the finish, eventually finishing a close up fifth. He has a definite chance in a 3 mile handicap at the festival. -2.00pts

Dancing Freddy then finished third after being backed into 6/1 at the off returning a nice sum of +6.75pts

Brushford was pulled up again and is best watched for the next while. -3.00pts

Morar ran impressively but was no match for the front two who were 21 lengths clear. He just finished out of the placings and will be much shorter on his next run. -2.00pts

Soul Bid turned out to be a silly bet and finished last of seven. A less competitive race would be up his street, off a lower mark. -3.00pts

Total Bet: 56 Points
Winnings: 30.41
Profit/Loss: -25.59

Total Bets: 24
Wins: 3
Places: 3

Win%: 12.5%

sonnky

Bangor 2.00 Sacco D'oro 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1

I've gone for a risky one here in the 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Bangor. It's not a particularly strong renewal of the race with only three or four in with a shout. I think that at a nice price Sacco D'oro could go well.

Altough winless since last January when she won a two mile handicap hurdle at Southwell on good to soft ground. I think she will handle the forecast soft ground as she has run okay on it in the past.

She has also run well in defeat the last few runs, nearly always finishing in the top five. She has run decent races off her current mark and has a five pound claimer on her back to reduce her weight.

I think she is capable of running a big race here and is one of the main rivals to the worthy favourite and likely winner Baggsy's Bridge.Sacco D'oro has definite place chances though.

sonnky

Wolverhampton 5.45 Caldercruix 2pts @ 9/1

I'll probably do a write up tomorrow.

sonnky

So Sacco D'oro finished in 3rd place and went off at twenty-five to one- slightly sickening. She was only about 4 lengths behind at the line and a race of this nature looks within her reach. +6.75pts

Caldercruix ran well and led at the furlong pole but was nailed and finished fourth, it could have been the extra 216 yards that got him in the end. A five furlong prize of this nature is within his reach. -2.00pts

So +4.75pts on a rare successful day for this thread. Hopefully they will become more common.

sonnky

Sandown 1.35 Colebrooke 1pt e/w @ 8/1(Coral)

Colebrooke has proved to be inconsistent over hurdles to say the least. Twice he has finished fourth, once third, second twice and has won one race. It is his winning race that is what has brought him into contention here. On that occasion at Fontwell over 2miles 3furlongs he finished forty one lengths in front of the second placed horse(Hi Note).

No horse fell when in contention, Colebrooke absolutely destroyed them. That race was run on soft ground, next time out though he was outpaced in the same conditions so he may find it difficult here over the shorter trip but if this turns into a bit of a staying race he can win it.

Colebrookes recent inconsistencies may be down to the fact that he has had 3 different jockeys in his last three starts and will have Brendan Powell on board today(a fourth different jockey). Powell is a very good young rider and his seven pound claim will put him on level weights with the favourite. If any horse outside the two favourites are going to win, I think it has got to be Colebrooke.


Sandown 2.05 Daves Dream 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1(Coral)

An ultra competitive class two handicap chase here with plenty of horses in with a chance, including former Imperial Cup winner Daves Dream, who is one from one here at this course. He was well fancied in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham where he failed to stay the trip. Off a similar mark today he could go close.


Sandown 3.10 Neptune Collonges 2pts e/w @ 9/1

The pick of the runners here, a classy grade one winner a few years back but has mainly been used to keep the handicap down for Nicholls runners this season. Ruby Walsh has chosen him and he should win if he returns to his form of old. The main rivals will be Master Of The Hall and the progressive Hold On Julio.

Good Luck, sorry about the last two write ups there a little short.

sonnky

A great day for the thread.

The day got off too a great start as Colebrooke under the brilliant seven pound claimer Brendan Powell. He slightly interfered with Soliwery but he stayed on well at the end to show he certainly will stay farther. But it was an excellent battling performance nonetheless. +12.00pts the biggest priced winner for this thread.


Daves Dream never really traveled in his race and looks as though he may be too high in the handicap at the moment. He nearly ran out at the first bend aswel. Despite jumping fairly well he struggled to get going. He will certainly be one to watch when a bit lower or towards the bottom of the weights. -3.00pts

Neptune Collonges ran a mighty race getting up for second at the end behind the progressive Hold On Julio, who is one to watch, although at this stage I think he is being overrated as he was only carrying ten stone getting almost two stone from the runner up. But time will certainly tell. +6.50pts for good old Neptune who jumped really well and was doing his best work at the finish.

So +15.50pts on a really good day, plenty more like it please.:cool: