Cam's American Football Tips

Peyton Manning

As I said in my last thread, I'm finishing up betting over the Christmas period so rather than track profit/loss anymore, I'm just going to track wins and losses. This also means abandoning the doubles system I used, it's just straight up tips that I fancy. So, for this weekend...

NCAA

UCLA @ USC (-14)
Houston (-3) @ Tulsa

NFL

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

I'll put up write ups on Friday as I'm posting from my phone now, but that's what I like this week.

stingerro

Not sure if you will be able to reply before games start, but would be thankful for opinions on these games:

UCLA at USC (-16) - you had it (-14), -16 makes it complicated, right?
Penn State at Wisconsin (-14.5)
Virginia Tech (-5.5) at Virginia
Alabama (-21) at Auburn
Michigan State (-6) at Northwestern

Just need a short note what looks decent. Thanks.

This is my last week of gambling. I have put all my balance on Panthers to beat Colts BY 3.5. So it's either banking nothing or 158 pounds. Cheers for the tips throughout the season Cam.

Peyton Manning

stingerro wrote: »

Not sure if you will be able to reply before games start, but would be thankful for opinions on these games:

UCLA at USC (-16)
Penn State at Wisconsin (-14.5)
Virginia Tech (-5.5) at Virginia
Alabama (-21) at Auburn
Michigan State (-6) at Northwestern

The ones in green would be what I would lean towards. The ones in red are road favourites in rivalry games which is always worth being weary of (I think Bama being 21 point favourites is a bit mad considering it's the Iron Bowl). Obviously the -14 is much more favourable in the USC game, but there's a good chance this is Kalil and Barkley's last game for them, so they'll give everything they have. Plus, Barkley is a serious Heisman contender now.

stingerro

Thanks for info on yesterday NCAAF matches. Cashed on Wisconsin and USC.

Peyton Manning

Nice one man, although looks like I talked you out of 2 winners too, sorry!

tipperaryman

The Giants +7.5 tonight, sounds good Cam?

Peyton Manning

Not a game I'd advise betting on, but if I was to choose then yes the Giants at anything above +7.5 would be preferred. They travel well and Jacobs should do well against a poor Saints run defence. Wouldn't go near anything less than a TD spread though.

Peyton Manning

Cam Newton wrote: »

NCAA

UCLA @ USC (-14)
Houston (-3) @ Tulsa

NFL

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Week One: 4-1

Week Two:

NCAA
Georgia vs LSU (-13.5)
Texas @ Baylor (-2.5)

NFL
Indiniapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-20.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

stingerro

Nice week. Maybe it's a time of the season when you once again will be killing bookies in NFL .

Onecoolcookie

Any opinions on Oregon to beat the spread tonight? UCLA were terrible against USC last week and I think Oregon's high powered offence should be able to put up huge points against them.

Peyton Manning

They should score a heap, and UCLA do suck but there's a couple of spots keeping me away from it. First, Oregon only have to win, they have very little else to play for with no chance of making it to the national championship. Second, LaMichael James isn't 100% (I haven't read up on the team news, but I know he injured himself again last week after a scary injury earlier in the year). And third, it's UCLA's coaches last game in charge, you'd imagine his troops will put in a bit more effort given it's his send off and a Pac 12 title game. 31.5 is a big spread to cover given the above, I'd be happier avoiding it tbh but all the same - if Oregon want to, then they can cover. Depends how up they are for it.

kryogen

Thinking of going big on the handicap for Wisconsin to beat Michigan State, any thoughts??

Peyton Manning

Go ahead, it's not one I'd have any advice on!

You'd think (and I think) Wisconsin should win easily, with the revenge factor and Montee Ball being on fire, but look what Michigan State did to them earlier in the year. And it wasn't just a fluke despite the hail mary, Wisconsin were behind for the majority of that game, and the Spartans have looked really good the past few weeks. Wisconsin have also been less than impressive on their travels, and even though this is a neutral venue, it's still not a home game for them.

Not one I'd go huge on, but if I was forced I'd still put a small bet on Wisconsin despite the above, too hard to bet against Wilson and Ball. Don't let me talk you out of it though, if you have a good feeling about it then go for it. Sorry I couldn't be of more (decisive) help!

kryogen

I have a good feeling alright but maybe Ill look for something to double them with rather then going huge

Juwwi

Hi just wondering do you have any opinion on the Oklahoma v Oklahoma State game later on tonight.
I think they are both teams you have backed alot this year.

Peyton Manning

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi just wondering do you have any opinion on the Oklahoma v Oklahoma State game later on tonight.
I think they are both teams you have backed alot this year.

Having a few internet problems here, can't check the spread - what is it at the moment?

Juwwi

Cam Newton wrote: »

Having a few internet problems here, can't check the spread - what is it at the moment?

Oklahoma State are -3.5 favs 10/11.

Peyton Manning

I'd probably side with Oklahoma +3.5 in that case. Hard to turn down a team with the quality of Oklahoma getting points. Oklahoma State haven't played since their title hopes were dashed - they've had a whole 2 weeks of stewing on what could have been - and won't put up as much points as they usually do given that the Sooners are the best defence they'll face all year. Plus, Landry Jones against what's really a terrible Oklahoma State defence has to be fancied. Wouldn't go big on it though - rivalry, road team etc. - but I would favour the Sooners in this one for a small to medium sized bet (i.e. if your typical stake is 50, maybe throw on 20/25). Money line could be worth a sneaky bet, but the odds probably wouldn't be much better given the low spread so better off taking the points.

Juwwi

Win or lose much appreciated thanks.

Irish94

Packers at -6.0 isn't bad at 10/11?

Peyton Manning

Irish94 wrote: »

Packers at -6.0 isn't bad at 10/11?

It's not, and betting on the Packers this year would have made you a fortune if you did it from the start of the year, but this is the one week I would not be too confident betting on them. Travelling to New York, it would be so typical of Eli Manning to be the man to knock them off, and they're linebackers are decimated by absentees this weekend. Any other week against any other team and you'd fancy them no matter what the spread, I just think there's safer bets elsewhere this weekend! By all means though, go with it if you're confident - at the end of the day it could come down to Aaron Rodgers just being too good for a simple -6 spread.

Irish94

I am gonna go with them, I've been betting on them since week 7 and they haven't let me down. Plus Rodgers is carrying my fantasy team at the moment so he better do well or else I will be very sad! haha

Le King

Cam Newton wrote: »

It's not, and betting on the Packers this year would have made you a fortune if you did it from the start of the year, but this is the one week I would not be too confident betting on them. Travelling to New York, it would be so typical of Eli Manning to be the man to knock them off, and they're linebackers are decimated by absentees this weekend. Any other week against any other team and you'd fancy them no matter what the spread, I just think there's safer bets elsewhere this weekend! By all means though, go with it if you're confident - at the end of the day it could come down to Aaron Rodgers just being too good for a simple -6 spread.

No way would I bet on the Packers this week. Too many variables. One being DJ Smith will be calling, another being Desmond Bishop (GB most effective LB) is out etc.

If everything goes the way it should the Packers should win by 10. But we are liable to come out and stop the Packers at times like these.

Sorry for hijacking the thread. Don't want to have a long winded out response as I had on the Giants forums but I honestly wouldn't touch this.

El Horseboxo

The Packers line opened at -7. 74% of the public bets in Vegas are on the Packers ATS but yet the line moves the opposite way. That's a sign some huge money is coming in on the Giants. Most likely taken at +7. Not a huge shift but the sharps like some angle on it. The fact it only moved a point would lead me to believe Packers win by a FG. That's just a guess.

slookie

Any other tips for todays games?

kryogen

I like the cowboys to cover the spread against Arizona, normally a very good team in december, they tend to peak and -4 is well within their grasp

Could of course be another bad Romo night but Im happy with the spread

I also like the Falcons to cover against the Texans but wouldnt go nuts on it, same goes for the Jets....due to the shockingly bad opponents

Chargers are due a win and can get one at the Jags who have been poor anyway and now the head coach got the bullet.

kryogen

In the early games Jets got the job done but the Falcons really shot themselves in the foot but still came very close to pulling it out of the bag.....

Headshot

Any advice for the New Orleans Saints v Detroit Lions ?

onekillmagill

I strongly fancy the saints to beat the handicap. Suh is missing for the lions and as soon as he went off last week the lions defence fell apart (all be it against the packers) The saints offense was on fire last week and i think they can bring it again this wekk so Saints -8 for me tonight

kryogen

Hard to go against the Saints at home

But my night has been a mixed bag so far so I wont give any advice just to say, I have them on the handicap