MTC's Winter 2011-12 Forecast

ashblag

gilly2308 wrote: »

Up to last year I used to love snow, but I swore last December that I would be happy if I never saw snow again, and I still stand by that. There are many things that we do badly in this country and dealing with snow is one of them, I still can remember the four hour commutes home, the frozen pipes, struggling to keep the house warm, I can't believe there are people on here disappointed that you are not predicting as severe a winter as last year. Anyway M.T. thanks again for your constantly brilliant weather predictions, and I for one hope that you are right as regards this winter? While I would be happy to see no snow whatsoever, anything less than last year will be an improvement, now any chance of us ever having a good Summer again

I'm with you on this, and waiting for water at collection points!:rolleyes:
thanks MT
think we need a nice normal irish winter after the last two!:D

Min

derekon wrote: »

MT, thank you for the time and effort you put into the Ireland forecast for winter 2011-2012 and for sharing your thoughts with us.

For the life of me, I really cannot understand why some people are disappointed. If you want disappointing winters, go back to those experienced from 2003-2007. Then you will know what disappointment is!

What MT is forecasting is nothing like those snowless winters.

Ok, it does not look like we will have a re-run of last December - but lets be honest with ourselves, what were the odds of that happening two years in a row? Very long , I would suggest.

Instead, MT's forecast is suggesting a colder than average Irish winter with plenty of snow potential in late November, some during December and a very strong signal for snow in the second week of January 2012. He also mentioned in some later posts that temps in January 2012 could potentially fall as low as those of December 2010. Why is everyone seeing the glass half empty? :rolleyes:

I agree, the January prediction is giving loads of snow.

Some people want a boring winter of snow from October to April.

A bit of snow is alright, some wet and windy spells are good for water supplies and dry weather for February and a mild dry Spring can be simply glorious as we saw this year.

The best winter won't be dominated by any one single weather feature.

JJJJNR

Agreed, drove past the roundwood reservoir and its half full ....

Amtmann

As a snow hater, I'm happy that the coming winter won't be as bad as the previous two. I like short spells of clear, frosty weather, but snow is a complete pain. Who likes potentially fatal roads, dangerous footpaths, and frozen pipes? Not me.

Villain

Tremelo wrote: »

As a snow hater, I'm happy that the coming winter won't be as bad as the previous two. I like short spells of clear, frosty weather, but snow is a complete pain. Who likes potentially fatal roads, dangerous footpaths, and frozen pipes? Not me.

You (and others) do realise these long range forecasts have a very low level of accuracy?

I'm not saying Peter's forecast is not to be read or taken on board but I wouldn't base my approach to the winter ahead on one or many LRF's

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Villain wrote: »

You (and others) do realise these long range forecasts have a very low level of accuracy?

I'm not saying Peter's forecast is not to be read or taken on board but I wouldn't base my approach to the winter ahead on one or many LRF's

Very true. We have, and will continue to be, caught by surprise when it comes to the weather

M.T. Cranium

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

Redsunset

Well if you just look at the first paragraph in M.T's winter forecast for last year it is fairly bang on to what the actual was.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

Considering it was made early October that was excellent.Im not too worried bout the rest of the forecast as to even get up to the end of december fairly spotty dog was an achievement in it's own right.That is all:)

Conor30

Tremelo wrote: »

As a snow hater, I'm happy that the coming winter won't be as bad as the previous two. I like short spells of clear, frosty weather, but snow is a complete pain. Who likes potentially fatal roads, dangerous footpaths, and frozen pipes? Not me.

Fair enough, but it's frost and ice that is more of a pain (to drive and walk on) than actual snow is! Snow can often be ok enough to drive on...at least you get some grip. However, in the case of frosty and icy early mornings, there's nothing worse when trying to get to work and having to eyeball every bit of the road the whole way!

Conor30

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

I hope eastern Ireland is frequently finding itself in the battle zone (and on the right side if it!), resulting in lots of snow for our money's worth!

Villain

redsunset wrote: »

Well if you just look at the first paragraph in M.T's winter forecast for last year it is fairly bang on to what the actual was.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

Considering it was made early October that was excellent.Im not too worried bout the rest of the forecast as to even get up to the end of december fairly spotty dog was an achievement in it's own right.That is all:)

I'm not denying that MT has had success with LRF's, all I was saying is that anyone that reads a LRF and takes is as Gospel and bases decisions on it is playing a dangerous game.

M.T. Cranium

I fully agree with that, at this stage of development, the LRF should be taken as the first indicator and then take more timely updates as they appear. Just like any other time scale, a long-range forecast can and should be updated. I've never understood this philosophy that some have on weather forums that somebody must live or die by their long-range forecast. We don't apply that thinking to a five-day forecast, that gets updated regularly. So it makes no sense to think that the three month outlook can never be updated as time passes.

I have heard back from people (in particular farming interests in isolated regions of both Ireland and Scotland) that last winter's outlook saved them a lot of bother because they weren't scrambling at the last minute to find extra supplies. So that alone was gratifying. For most of the readers, the LRF is little more than an interesting diversion but for some, it could have a big impact on their planning. So I should add the caveat that it's probably best to assume a worst case scenario or close to it, as long as you don't spend money you can't afford to spend, and have a plan B in case you over-supply. Unless you're put out by the expense, there's no harm in having extra supplies around for later use anyway, and perhaps you'll save money that way regardless. If I were looking at the roads situation in Ireland or the UK for this winter, I would tend to assume harsh conditions might come early like last winter, even if it turns out more like I'm saying, you would still need those supplies within a few weeks so no harm done. This doesn't look like a year worth taking a chance on ordering a bare minimum and hoping for mild weather to prevail. But from what I've heard, they don't tend to get around to treating a lot of the side streets (same thing around here by the way) for many days, so if it did turn out reasonably open then they could use the surplus to impress the population with their thorough treatment (but I would be doing that late in the season just in case).

How are the natural signs looking this autumn?

bb1234567

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

thanks sooo much m.t youre giving me greater confidence in some decent snowy cold spells coming this winter with every post. your forecast seems like the perfect winter, verymixed but with some periods of very cold weather mixed in too, with some stormy and mild periods. suits everyone:D hope it turns out like you said, or maybe colder again;)

jimmy.d

bb1234567 wrote: »

thanks sooo much m.t youre giving me greater confidence in some decent snowy cold spells coming this winter with every post. your forecast seems like the perfect winter, verymixed but with some periods of very cold weather mixed in too, with some stormy and mild periods. suits everyone:D hope it turns out like you said, or maybe colder again;)

well why will james madden have the last laugh bb1234567 Add your comment Quote this entry and comment View user's recent posts to anyone wondering about brian gazes comment doylem was talking about ''Interesting. The 'hints' coming out of Exeter seem to be suggesting they are expecting a milder winter this year. On the specifics of recent press reports, I'm inclined to agree, and I've been thinking of holding back my initial winter thoughts which were due out next week.'' now doylem i dont think that was said in the most confident of manners, hes obviously not decided yet and hasnt even released his winter forecast yet. i wouldnt lay my cards out on the table yet, i think its you whos shot himself in the foot and it will be james madden who has the last laugh !

fr wishy washy

Natural Signs as in
I have not seen any small birds looking for food near the back door in weeks.

cafecreme

Not as many berries on my holly tree this year, I'd say about 30% less and they didn't appear til end of July-last year I noticed them in early July. Still a lot more than usual for it though.

bb1234567

jimmy.d wrote: »

well why will james madden have the last laugh [URL="bb1234567 Add your comment Quote this entry and comment View user's recent posts to anyone wondering about brian gazes comment doylem was talking about ''Interesting. The 'hints' coming out of Exeter seem to be suggesting they are expecting a milder winter this year. On the specifics of recent press reports, I'm inclined to agree, and I've been thinking of holding back my initial winter thoughts which were due out next week.'' now doylem i dont think that was said in the most confident of manners, hes obviously not decided yet and hasnt even released his winter forecast yet. i wouldnt lay my cards out on the table yet, i think its you whos shot himself in the foot and it will be james madden who has the last laugh !"

i say stuff to spite doylem as i hate him.hes just so cocky and annoying!! makes me so angry, id say anything even make up stuff to knock himoff his high horse :mad:

Amtmann

Conor30 wrote: »

Fair enough, but it's frost and ice that is more of a pain (to drive and walk on) than actual snow is! Snow can often be ok enough to drive on...at least you get some grip. However, in the case of frosty and icy early mornings, there's nothing worse when trying to get to work and having to eyeball every bit of the road the whole way!

Winter tyres

jimmy.d

bb1234567 wrote: »

jimmy.d wrote: »

well why will james madden have the last laugh [URL="bb1234567 Add your comment Quote this entry and comment View user's recent posts to anyone wondering about brian gazes comment doylem was talking about ''Interesting. The 'hints' coming out of Exeter seem to be suggesting they are expecting a milder winter this year. On the specifics of recent press reports, I'm inclined to agree, and I've been thinking of holding back my initial winter thoughts which were due out next week.'' now doylem i dont think that was said in the most confident of manners, hes obviously not decided yet and hasnt even released his winter forecast yet. i wouldnt lay my cards out on the table yet, i think its you whos shot himself in the foot and it will be james madden who has the last laugh !"

i say stuff to spite doylem as i hate him.hes just so cocky and annoying!! makes me so angry, id say anything even make up stuff to knock himoff his high horse :mad:

only messin with ya

bb1234567

jimmy.d wrote: »

bb1234567 wrote: »

only messin with ya

hah:p thought for a sec you were going to be one of these daily mail debaters that takes the weather much too seriously- some of them on daily mail really need to calm it down a bit:p

Lucreto

bb1234567 wrote: »

jimmy.d wrote: »

hah:p thought for a sec you were going to be one of these daily mail debaters that takes the weather much too seriously- some of them on daily mail really need to calm it down a bit:p

Ha Ha true jenko80 and danielsmith12 fighting can be a pain.

tzfrantic

does anybody have a idea will it snow heavy in november

bb1234567

Lucreto wrote: »

bb1234567 wrote: »

Ha Ha true jenko80 and danielsmith12 fighting can be a pain.

tell me about it the forum is getting so boring !

JanuarySnowstor

Tremelo wrote: »

Winter tyres

Had winter tyres on last year and they were useless in the ice.
There good for snow that's about it!

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

Folks, is anyone really listening to what MT is saying ? There is great potential for some very cold and snowy periods this winter. Read his comments above, some of which are underlined to emphasise that this winter will not be a "cakewalk" .

November, December and January are set to be very interesting months for the weather fans all over Ireland and the UK!

M.T. Cranium

Bingo. I think many are focusing on one narrow question -- will December be like last year? You can answer that "no" without tossing winter out of the pram (window?) and that's what Derekon has pointed out above.

bb1234567

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Bingo. I think many are focusing on one narrow question -- will December be like last year? You can answer that "no" without tossing winter out of the pram (window?) and that's what Derekon has pointed out above.

mt you said there could be 5-7 very cold spells or snow events over the course of the winter, could these be around 7 days long? 5-7 week long cold spells spread out over the winter would do it for me ,thatd be brilliant!! i'd prefer that to last year where all the cold was in 1 month then nothing for the rest of the winter

dsmythy

I think last December has warped people's view as to what an Irish winter is meant to be. A very cold spell could be a dump of snow one day and three days later it getting quickly thawed by a westerly. Not all that uncommon an event but for some it would be a disappointment somehow.

HellFireClub

In all seriousness folks, we live in probably one of the most variable places for weather on earth, if not the most variable position for all sorts of weather.

With the greatest of respect to MT and all other professionals on the forum, who I follow daily and weekly for forecasts, with a set up such as ours, I genuinely believe that there is just too much variation in our geograhical weather system than to be able to give any real commentary on may or may not happen with regard to cold spells and snow events more than a week or so into the future. The place could freeze over from Halloween until March or we could get a mild winter, or we could get loads of varying combinations that would be a mish mash of those two extremes, I just don't think we have a clue what weather we can expect more than 1 week into the future.

butt1

should be banned from this site,such rubbish,no real truth or basics