MTC's Winter 2011-12 Forecast

M.T. Cranium

Winter Forecast 2011-12 For Ireland

from M.T. Cranium (Peter O'Donnell)

Methodology

This seasonal forecast is based on Peter O'Donnell's research into natural variations in atmospheric patterns using an extensive data base on both monthly and daily time scales.

Peter's research began in North America around 1980 and was extended to Europe as part of global modelling efforts, with the major advance being a forecast and detailed research program that began in 2005. As a result, this is the seventh winter forecast that Peter has issued for the U.K. and Ireland, and the second one for Boards.ie as well as Irish Weather Online. Global patterns and solar activity are factored into the forecasts, but the primary basis remains a numerical model of temperature variations that can be connected to index values for pattern types.

The model considers various factors that theoretically link the complex solar system magnetic field (which could be described as "space weather" or the state of the solar wind compared to average at various points in time). Then, using a theory that links the solar system magnetic field to earth's upper atmosphere, the model derives a forecast of atmospheric variations from normal. A third and very significant step is to model in an independent set of variations based on lunar-atmospheric tidal effects.

The main point to keep in mind is that the forecast model is basically the sum of many small variations which, if they existed alone, would produce only slight variations in the weather day to day or year to year. But if there are twenty or more such variables all interacting, then the cumulative effects can become considerable. This particular seasonal forecast is fine tuned from "re-analysis" or a look back at recent seasonal forecast efforts and feedback into the research model from a study of timing or intensity errors.

Unlike some in the long-range forecasting business, we make no elaborate claims of high accuracy but we believe that over the past five years this method has produced some of the best results, for example, the severe cold spell of last December.


Overview for winter 2011-12

From a starting point in mid-October, we consider the five month period November to March, with "climatological winter" defined as being the months of December, January and February, whereas "meteorological winter" can, as we saw last year, fall in any of the five months in the Irish climate.

As is now becoming clearer on reliable time frame global forecast models, late October could be a lot colder than the past three weeks have been. That colder trend may fade out for part of early NOVEMBER with another mild spell, but colder weather with some snow may then return in the second half of November. In general this is not expected to be as dramatic as last year, and the severe cold is not expected to continue through most of DECEMBER; instead, there may be roughly equal spells of mild and cold weather with possibly a rather stormy theme and a wide variety of daily weather types that will include some strong winds, some heavy rainfalls and some snow or ice. The output for the Christmas to New Year period suggests a milder interval after some rather cold days about a week before Christmas.

JANUARY may be "the" month of the winter as our model forecast suggests some much colder than average weather through most of the month. The details may include a few brief milder turns which could involve snow to rain type breakdowns, but there are indications of cold spells with northeast or east winds that are often associated with snow in eastern counties, and in particular around Meath and Dublin. as well as Wicklow. The lunar components suggest that the week starting around 8th January could become stormy and cold enough for snow to be dominant by then, although the south could remain in more mixed precipitation. The greatest depth of cold, suggesting higher pressure building up from the east, should come a little after mid-January. More snow seems likely in the period that has delivered in some recent winters, around end of January and first few days of February.

The output then suggests a steady warming trend to produce a rather mild FEBRUARY once that early cold and snow comes and goes, and that scenario suggests some risk of flooding with the thaw and melt. Otherwise February may become a rather settled and almost early spring-like month with some of the model temperature output well above normal.

MARCH looks rather chilly especially towards the end, and could involve a minor return to winter or near winter conditions, so in terms of a seasonal "overview" the dominant theme might be variable but a colder winter than many in the "modern" period, perhaps a winter more typical of the colder climate periods of the past, but either not as extreme as last year, or if everything comes together just right (or wrong, depending on your point of view), a January that may remind us of the December of last winter, with some previews of that in mid-December. Wishing to remain a bit conservative, the monthly temperature forecasts relative to normal are set as:

NOV -1 deg (variable but trending cold)
DEC 0 deg (on balance normal but variable, stormy)
JAN -2 deg (cold, and potentially colder to -4 deg, depending on snow cover)
FEB +2 deg (after a cold start, mild to very mild)
MAR -1 deg (mild to start but becoming rather cool later)

Precipitation forecasting tends to be error-prone just because of greater regional complexity, but with so many changes in regime, it would be sensible to expect some intervals of heavy precipitation and also some two to three week dry spells. Over the research period, winter full and new moons tend to be more stormy than background in the eastern Atlantic, and we'll explore some of the research model details in that regard as we move through the season. The full moon around 10-11 December should produce a significant storm (probably the second of a set) likely moving northwest to southeast given the expected setup, so that could be a time for one of the winter's stronger wind events. The new moon around Christmas is embedded in a mild spell so we are expecting either a foggy inversion with the storm track well to the north, or possibly a mild storm running well north of Connacht around that time, and then there could be a northerly blast to follow around New Years, followed by a volatile period of strong west to northwest flow.

The January full moon energy peak 8th-10th coming around a time indicated to be turning much colder could be the trigger for the most significant weather event of the winter which could be a stormy period involving some heavy snowfalls. Later on, the new moon period seems more likely to drive the storm track well south towards Iberia. If there is a secondary track closer to Ireland this may become a time for snow or ice storms (20th-24th). There are secondary energy peaks that fall roughly five days before these main lunar energy peaks, which sets up an uneven modulation of five and nine or ten days in the likely pressure oscillation, that could show up in a tendency for one week to be settled, then the next week stormy, as a sort of background rhythm to the winter season. The settled weeks are likely to be also the coldest until February, but then the mildest as the flow becomes more southerly or southwesterly. And it appears from the numerical output that these settled periods will tend to fall around mid-months.


Conclusions and Updates

With this time scale, the details are bound to change to some extent and the main point of adding them to basic trends is to give the reader a sense of the range of weather types to be expected. To some extent, timing these exactly is not really the main point for those who want to plan their business ahead of time -- the more conventional forms of forecasting will lead into the active periods, but this overview may give you some idea what to expect in general and we would stress the menu being more important than the order of service. That might not work for a restaurant but the current "state of the art" in seasonal forecasting is frankly well short of being what we could call a fully developed science, no matter what various gurus say in their press releases. For this forecaster, the stimulus of trying to provide some details has a positive effect on the research, and gives us a foundation that is better than just a vague outlook as was and is the custom with large agency forecasts.

Winter 2011-12 looks like being quite an active winter and not lacking in wintry weather types, although not entirely dominated by them either. Readers in more isolated and upland locations might be well advised to have extra supplies on hand at a fairly early stage of the winter in case the early opportunities for cold dig in, but we think your main challenges will come in January this year. In any case, updates to a long range forecast make even more sense than updates to a shorter time scale and so we don't take a "live or die" approach to this early call, as patterns develop and interact, we may well have an adjusted outlook closer to the actual winter season. Not surprisingly, the outlook for the U.K. will tend to mirror this forecast for Ireland but a separate forecast for the U.K. will become available early next week.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Thanks MT !

How would this compare to your views of last winter if you had been looking at it on 13th October 2010 ?

Tazio

Some of the snowbies are going to be disappointed... But we get a stormy December....

Brilliant forecast .. thank you!

Strangegravy

I'm very happy with that.. going on the last couple of winters around the Limerick area, we tend to get better snow opportunities when it's a bit more variable, as last year that constant easterly was damn cold, but brought no snow.

Min

Thanks for your work you have done in producing that and for the warning for us who do get cut off in snow events.

Iancar29

Thanks MT.... for making me a sad sad person

haha , only messing, yeah i hope we still get a SNOW storm at least then in Jan.

IM definitely booking my trip to Norway now! , my craving for snow has to be fed! ha

andre2010

Well thats disappointing....

What i dont understand is can this forecast differ so much from every other long range forecast out there? its not just slightly different, its the complete other end of the spectrum.

Great detailed forecast though, thanks MT

NIALL D

andre2010 wrote: »

Well thats disappointing....

What i dont understand is can this forecast differ so much from every other long range forecast out there? its not just slightly different, its the complete other end of the spectrum.

Great detailed forecast though, thanks MT

true , but im sure they all use different techniques and models etc to forecast whats ahead !!!

doesnt look great for snow really , at least us on higher ground should get some decent snow anyway at some stage.

hopefully not to many storms and rain , how boring would that be !! its been miserable wet and damp since last january - we have had plenty of that at this stage. a proper freeze is whats needed !!!

ta mt...

YESROH

thanks MT. Bit of a mix bag there so that is good, lets hope the snow in January is plentiful. Not liking the sound of March so far but maybe that means the summer will be warmer.

delw

Thanks MT really appreciate your time & effort.
Seems to be a bit of everything in there for everyone,hope your right about the snow events especially January,sounds good,but just hope its not like January 2011 where everything seemed to get pushed back until we got nothing.

Rikand

yay! I might get some golf in this winter!

davidsr20

Thanks mt,I'm very disappointed tho,it's not looking like it's going to be like last year at all ;(

M.T. Cranium

Would stress that the December "difference" in this forecast (relative to last year or relative to any other forecast out there) is not the same as saying no potential for wintry weather ahead. I've mentioned some chances for it even in November and December as part of a variable pattern. But January looks more wintry than not, with predicted departures of 2 to 4 degrees, and so I would not wish to set up any expectation of a mild or open sort of winter on balance, just something different in timing from what others may be saying or from what happened last year. Who knows, it may turn out a lot better for snow in some regions if the cold is more delayed into January. And also, the range of January temperatures is lower than December's range, so you don't have to have the coldest January on record to equal last December. I think there have been ten or even fifteen months of January colder than the December extreme over three centuries. The same goes for February of course but here the forecast is saying early snow perhaps but quite mild later. That has become pretty standard in recent years anyway, perhaps 1947 used up all of February's blizzard potential.

Aiel

Thanks MT as always,its a labour of love im sure for you to do it but we do appreciate it!!
Sounds like i might get in some outdoor training runs in December,unlike last year which was a near total write off in that month:).
The sounds of stormy weather sounds good too,a good old fashioned Atlantic storm or 2 is always entertaining:).

pauldry

Great forecast MT.

Lots of detail and reasoning behind it.

I was thinking along the same lines myself that most of the snow would be in New Year.

Last year was a freak.

Still hope theres snow on Nov 28th for Contest!

Birdnuts

YESROH wrote: »

. Not liking the sound of March so far but maybe that means the summer will be warmer.

Yes - I'd be extremly wary of yet another good March/April in terms of the following summer based on recent efforts:(

M.T. Cranium

The chances of having two Decembers in a row like last December must be astronomically small. Even finding two severe Januaries in a row is difficult and there's more of those in the random deck.

One of the natural cycles that I've identified in research has a modulation of about 13 months rather than exactly one year. You can tell without doing any research that there aren't any 12-month cycles, because if there were, the annual temperature curve would reveal them. Well actually there are one or two small bumps and dips in the annual average temperature curve. These tend to have reasonable explanations in climatology rather than external energy sources. In eastern North America, there is a well-known temporary peak in mean temperature known as the "January thaw" that comes around the 20th to 25th. It's caused by the statistical probability that Siberian air masses will be rapidly expanding and pushing across the North Pacific region around then, which in turn causes the downstream flow to buckle and ridge over eastern North America. There is also a noticeable bulge in the temperature series in late December that I have theorized may be a response to the Sun crossing the galactic equator and inducing a slight energy wave.

That 13-month cycle runs along side a shorter than annual cycle of about 348 days that also has retrograde components. It seemed that last winter, the two cycles both hit their minimum together in December. This time around, those two are separated out now and the retrograde cold signal will come in November while the larger slightly progressive (northerly blocking at least) cold signal will be delayed into January. But they won't reinforce each other so it makes me think that December's extreme case may not be repeated. However, January can get pretty extreme when there's snow cover because at that point, solar radiation is negligible for Ireland and surrounding oceans are colder than in December. With snow cover, there's nothing much to prevent temperatures from falling to near extreme values even if the uppers are not as severe as last December.

leahyl

Thanks MT! i still hold out hope (I have to!) that we will get a good bit of snow but having said that I like your mention of wind storms - I love a good storm too - the wind howling and the rain beating off the window, also perfect winter weather!:D

Musicman2000

I don’t understand why some people are disappointed, there wasn’t a hope of a repeat of last December, I think a few of us were reading the rags to much, Mini Ice age, Extreme winter etc.

When you think about it Winter was short lived last year gone by January even if it was extreme, Reading MT’s winter forecast it doesn’t look bad at all and more spread out than last year its not like past winters mild south westerly non stop for 3 months so I don’t really know why some people are disappointed, and who knows winter could be very cold again nobody knows not even MT

eskimocat

The long anticipated day has arrived! Thank you MT for such a detailed yet user friendly forecast.

It seems to be a nice mix in there for boardies of all persuasions.. Snow lovers/haters, storm chasers/haters, ice sculpters/ defrosters... etc

Winter 2010/11 would have been hard to match but one can always dream, and to be honest I really thought that lots of things were lined up to make this epic No.2 but statistics statistics...

Considering the forecast from my location, I think that I will be able to enjoy Lamp watching for a little while this winter . Also the references to cold and low temps I think I will be placing my order for yaktraks early this year.

Thanks again MT:)

loup

Thanks MT a great forecast as usual. A definite mixed bag which is great

Iancar29

I dunno how im gonna break the "bad" news to him>>>>>>>>>>

glossy

Thank you very much for your time and input M T (Peter)

damino

Tanx M T. Just one question. Are the chances of another white Christmas gone or are the odds still quite good?

Blizzard 2010

I wont be holding my breath. Its still early days yet. I must say it is a good safe winter forecast

Gonzo

id tend to agree with this forecast over the artic conditions that the newspapers/tabloids are going along with and at this stage i'd rather a decent summer next year over an artic winter, we are so overdue a semi-decent summer at this stage.

derekon

MT, thank you for the time and effort you put into the Ireland forecast for winter 2011-2012 and for sharing your thoughts with us.

For the life of me, I really cannot understand why some people are disappointed. If you want disappointing winters, go back to those experienced from 2003-2007. Then you will know what disappointment is!

What MT is forecasting is nothing like those snowless winters.

Ok, it does not look like we will have a re-run of last December - but lets be honest with ourselves, what were the odds of that happening two years in a row? Very long , I would suggest.

Instead, MT's forecast is suggesting a colder than average Irish winter with plenty of snow potential in late November, some during December and a very strong signal for snow in the second week of January 2012. He also mentioned in some later posts that temps in January 2012 could potentially fall as low as those of December 2010. Why is everyone seeing the glass half empty? :rolleyes:

Wine Goddess

Lamp watchers unite! Looks like we'll have at least a few nights crooking our necks then rushing to post our observations....as a complete novice in forecasting SNOOOOOW is the only time I get to add useful info!
Thanks MT for a great interesting and excellent forecast...dying to use my Yaktraks which helpfully arrived after the SNOOOOOW last year........:(

gilly0512

Up to last year I used to love snow, but I swore last December that I would be happy if I never saw snow again, and I still stand by that. There are many things that we do badly in this country and dealing with snow is one of them, I still can remember the four hour commutes home, the frozen pipes, struggling to keep the house warm, I can't believe there are people on here disappointed that you are not predicting as severe a winter as last year. Anyway M.T. thanks again for your constantly brilliant weather predictions, and I for one hope that you are right as regards this winter? While I would be happy to see no snow whatsoever, anything less than last year will be an improvement, now any chance of us ever having a good Summer again

Morrisseeee

Cheers MT for a very detailed forecast. If it's even half true, I definitely moving my house away from the dredded..........SOUTH !! We've had no Summer and now we'll probably get rain/sleet while the East gets belted with snow, aghhhhhhhhhh :pac:

dbyrne

Thanks MT for putting in all the time and effort that you put into doing forcasts and answering peoples questions.

I cant put in words what I hope happens so I though a picture would do.

ashblag

gilly2308 wrote: »

Up to last year I used to love snow, but I swore last December that I would be happy if I never saw snow again, and I still stand by that. There are many things that we do badly in this country and dealing with snow is one of them, I still can remember the four hour commutes home, the frozen pipes, struggling to keep the house warm, I can't believe there are people on here disappointed that you are not predicting as severe a winter as last year. Anyway M.T. thanks again for your constantly brilliant weather predictions, and I for one hope that you are right as regards this winter? While I would be happy to see no snow whatsoever, anything less than last year will be an improvement, now any chance of us ever having a good Summer again

I'm with you on this, and waiting for water at collection points!:rolleyes:
thanks MT
think we need a nice normal irish winter after the last two!:D

Min

derekon wrote: »

MT, thank you for the time and effort you put into the Ireland forecast for winter 2011-2012 and for sharing your thoughts with us.

For the life of me, I really cannot understand why some people are disappointed. If you want disappointing winters, go back to those experienced from 2003-2007. Then you will know what disappointment is!

What MT is forecasting is nothing like those snowless winters.

Ok, it does not look like we will have a re-run of last December - but lets be honest with ourselves, what were the odds of that happening two years in a row? Very long , I would suggest.

Instead, MT's forecast is suggesting a colder than average Irish winter with plenty of snow potential in late November, some during December and a very strong signal for snow in the second week of January 2012. He also mentioned in some later posts that temps in January 2012 could potentially fall as low as those of December 2010. Why is everyone seeing the glass half empty? :rolleyes:

I agree, the January prediction is giving loads of snow.

Some people want a boring winter of snow from October to April.

A bit of snow is alright, some wet and windy spells are good for water supplies and dry weather for February and a mild dry Spring can be simply glorious as we saw this year.

The best winter won't be dominated by any one single weather feature.

JJJJNR

Agreed, drove past the roundwood reservoir and its half full ....

Amtmann

As a snow hater, I'm happy that the coming winter won't be as bad as the previous two. I like short spells of clear, frosty weather, but snow is a complete pain. Who likes potentially fatal roads, dangerous footpaths, and frozen pipes? Not me.

Villain

Tremelo wrote: »

As a snow hater, I'm happy that the coming winter won't be as bad as the previous two. I like short spells of clear, frosty weather, but snow is a complete pain. Who likes potentially fatal roads, dangerous footpaths, and frozen pipes? Not me.

You (and others) do realise these long range forecasts have a very low level of accuracy?

I'm not saying Peter's forecast is not to be read or taken on board but I wouldn't base my approach to the winter ahead on one or many LRF's

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Villain wrote: »

You (and others) do realise these long range forecasts have a very low level of accuracy?

I'm not saying Peter's forecast is not to be read or taken on board but I wouldn't base my approach to the winter ahead on one or many LRF's

Very true. We have, and will continue to be, caught by surprise when it comes to the weather

M.T. Cranium

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

Redsunset

Well if you just look at the first paragraph in M.T's winter forecast for last year it is fairly bang on to what the actual was.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

Considering it was made early October that was excellent.Im not too worried bout the rest of the forecast as to even get up to the end of december fairly spotty dog was an achievement in it's own right.That is all:)

Conor30

Tremelo wrote: »

As a snow hater, I'm happy that the coming winter won't be as bad as the previous two. I like short spells of clear, frosty weather, but snow is a complete pain. Who likes potentially fatal roads, dangerous footpaths, and frozen pipes? Not me.

Fair enough, but it's frost and ice that is more of a pain (to drive and walk on) than actual snow is! Snow can often be ok enough to drive on...at least you get some grip. However, in the case of frosty and icy early mornings, there's nothing worse when trying to get to work and having to eyeball every bit of the road the whole way!

Conor30

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

I hope eastern Ireland is frequently finding itself in the battle zone (and on the right side if it!), resulting in lots of snow for our money's worth!

Villain

redsunset wrote: »

Well if you just look at the first paragraph in M.T's winter forecast for last year it is fairly bang on to what the actual was.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

Considering it was made early October that was excellent.Im not too worried bout the rest of the forecast as to even get up to the end of december fairly spotty dog was an achievement in it's own right.That is all:)

I'm not denying that MT has had success with LRF's, all I was saying is that anyone that reads a LRF and takes is as Gospel and bases decisions on it is playing a dangerous game.

M.T. Cranium

I fully agree with that, at this stage of development, the LRF should be taken as the first indicator and then take more timely updates as they appear. Just like any other time scale, a long-range forecast can and should be updated. I've never understood this philosophy that some have on weather forums that somebody must live or die by their long-range forecast. We don't apply that thinking to a five-day forecast, that gets updated regularly. So it makes no sense to think that the three month outlook can never be updated as time passes.

I have heard back from people (in particular farming interests in isolated regions of both Ireland and Scotland) that last winter's outlook saved them a lot of bother because they weren't scrambling at the last minute to find extra supplies. So that alone was gratifying. For most of the readers, the LRF is little more than an interesting diversion but for some, it could have a big impact on their planning. So I should add the caveat that it's probably best to assume a worst case scenario or close to it, as long as you don't spend money you can't afford to spend, and have a plan B in case you over-supply. Unless you're put out by the expense, there's no harm in having extra supplies around for later use anyway, and perhaps you'll save money that way regardless. If I were looking at the roads situation in Ireland or the UK for this winter, I would tend to assume harsh conditions might come early like last winter, even if it turns out more like I'm saying, you would still need those supplies within a few weeks so no harm done. This doesn't look like a year worth taking a chance on ordering a bare minimum and hoping for mild weather to prevail. But from what I've heard, they don't tend to get around to treating a lot of the side streets (same thing around here by the way) for many days, so if it did turn out reasonably open then they could use the surplus to impress the population with their thorough treatment (but I would be doing that late in the season just in case).

How are the natural signs looking this autumn?

bb1234567

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would you say then that the cold and snow in late November and December came as a total surprise? Like others in this developing field, I am trying to develop at least some early warning of real weather impacts and raise it above just a random noise level. So in this case the advance warning (alert?) is that another fairly severe winter may lie ahead with the main action to be expected in January this time. But I wouldn't just call Nov-Dec a cakewalk either, we're talking about cold spells at times with snow potential within them, so if this maxed out there could be three to five snow events and possibly more in total for some regions than last winter. People in Limerick and Clare would find that rather easy to imagine as they saw no snow in places. I doubt that higher parts of Dublin are going to see more snow than last December but I wouldn't rule out nearly equal amounts at least spread out over more time.

I should draw attention to a phenomenon that has been noticed in other years, that which I call "time telescoping" where, the further out something is predicted, the less immediate or real it seems to the reader, and it's partly because time intervals that far off seem smaller. One reads about a cold week in January (not saying this is verbatim from the forecast) and thinks, oh that's just a few days way off in the future. When you get closer to the time, a week seems like a longer time interval. Then you get into it and have to deal with the actual weather, and it drags on for a long time.

Take this recent warm spell which has lasted about three weeks now. It probably seems like longer, right? But when it's over, it will seem like a rather distant memory soon afterwards.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to this winter season, I also think a lot of variety would be interesting and good for the forum, and I do predict more than the usual variability as I sense from the numerical output that the ridge-trough amplitude will tend to be fairly large. In fact I think we may hear the phrase "from one extreme to the other" popping up in conversation and reportage this winter.

thanks sooo much m.t youre giving me greater confidence in some decent snowy cold spells coming this winter with every post. your forecast seems like the perfect winter, verymixed but with some periods of very cold weather mixed in too, with some stormy and mild periods. suits everyone:D hope it turns out like you said, or maybe colder again;)

jimmy.d

bb1234567 wrote: »

thanks sooo much m.t youre giving me greater confidence in some decent snowy cold spells coming this winter with every post. your forecast seems like the perfect winter, verymixed but with some periods of very cold weather mixed in too, with some stormy and mild periods. suits everyone:D hope it turns out like you said, or maybe colder again;)

well why will james madden have the last laugh bb1234567 Add your comment Quote this entry and comment View user's recent posts to anyone wondering about brian gazes comment doylem was talking about ''Interesting. The 'hints' coming out of Exeter seem to be suggesting they are expecting a milder winter this year. On the specifics of recent press reports, I'm inclined to agree, and I've been thinking of holding back my initial winter thoughts which were due out next week.'' now doylem i dont think that was said in the most confident of manners, hes obviously not decided yet and hasnt even released his winter forecast yet. i wouldnt lay my cards out on the table yet, i think its you whos shot himself in the foot and it will be james madden who has the last laugh !

fr wishy washy

Natural Signs as in
I have not seen any small birds looking for food near the back door in weeks.

cafecreme

Not as many berries on my holly tree this year, I'd say about 30% less and they didn't appear til end of July-last year I noticed them in early July. Still a lot more than usual for it though.

bb1234567

jimmy.d wrote: »

well why will james madden have the last laugh [URL="bb1234567 Add your comment Quote this entry and comment View user's recent posts to anyone wondering about brian gazes comment doylem was talking about ''Interesting. The 'hints' coming out of Exeter seem to be suggesting they are expecting a milder winter this year. On the specifics of recent press reports, I'm inclined to agree, and I've been thinking of holding back my initial winter thoughts which were due out next week.'' now doylem i dont think that was said in the most confident of manners, hes obviously not decided yet and hasnt even released his winter forecast yet. i wouldnt lay my cards out on the table yet, i think its you whos shot himself in the foot and it will be james madden who has the last laugh !"

i say stuff to spite doylem as i hate him.hes just so cocky and annoying!! makes me so angry, id say anything even make up stuff to knock himoff his high horse :mad:

Amtmann

Conor30 wrote: »

Fair enough, but it's frost and ice that is more of a pain (to drive and walk on) than actual snow is! Snow can often be ok enough to drive on...at least you get some grip. However, in the case of frosty and icy early mornings, there's nothing worse when trying to get to work and having to eyeball every bit of the road the whole way!

Winter tyres

jimmy.d

bb1234567 wrote: »

jimmy.d wrote: »

well why will james madden have the last laugh [URL="bb1234567 Add your comment Quote this entry and comment View user's recent posts to anyone wondering about brian gazes comment doylem was talking about ''Interesting. The 'hints' coming out of Exeter seem to be suggesting they are expecting a milder winter this year. On the specifics of recent press reports, I'm inclined to agree, and I've been thinking of holding back my initial winter thoughts which were due out next week.'' now doylem i dont think that was said in the most confident of manners, hes obviously not decided yet and hasnt even released his winter forecast yet. i wouldnt lay my cards out on the table yet, i think its you whos shot himself in the foot and it will be james madden who has the last laugh !"

i say stuff to spite doylem as i hate him.hes just so cocky and annoying!! makes me so angry, id say anything even make up stuff to knock himoff his high horse :mad:

only messin with ya

bb1234567

jimmy.d wrote: »

bb1234567 wrote: »

only messin with ya

hah:p thought for a sec you were going to be one of these daily mail debaters that takes the weather much too seriously- some of them on daily mail really need to calm it down a bit:p