Should Ireland Leave the EU?

easychair

djpbarry wrote: »

Are they?

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/09/14/00105.asp

You’ve got a whole lot of figures in the above tables that are not mentioned by the Minister?

You asked what was the source of the table showing Ireland's Governmet, private corporate and household debt. I gave you the source, and your own quoting of what the Minister says confirms that the figures are accurate.

The other figures come from The real effects of debt" by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli (05 August 2011) , where they discuss the overall effects of debt overhang - across public, private corporate and household debts - on the real economy.

They conclude that for government debt, anything over the threshold is in the range of 80 to 100% of GDP will have a detrimental effect on an economy, for corporate debt 90% of GDP, and for household debt 85% of GDP.

djpbarry

easychair wrote: »

You asked what was the source of the table showing Ireland's Governmet, private corporate and household debt. I gave you the source...

Can you just tell us where exactly the tables were taken from please?

easychair

Another big problem for Ireland is unemployment. Ever after all those who have left and emigrated so far have gone, unemployment, and especially in teh younger age groups, has increased very dramatically.



Ireland's enormous debts were said to be eating the future of Ireland's young, and now it is being said that they are eating the present and future of Irelands young.

oscarBravo

easychair wrote: »

Another big problem for Ireland is unemployment. Ever after all those who have left and emigrated so far have gone, unemployment, and especially in teh younger age groups, has increased very dramatically.

[...]

Ireland's enormous debts were said to be eating the future of Ireland's young, and now it is being said that they are eating the present and future of Irelands young.

...which has what, exactly, to do with whether we should leave the EU?

easychair

Nothing, obviously. The last few pages seem to have veered away from that into the general situation rather than whether Ireland should leave the EU. Which in itself is not an question as there is no mechanism for Ireland to leave the EU.

meglome

easychair wrote: »

Nothing, obviously. The last few pages seem to have veered away from that into the general situation rather than whether Ireland should leave the EU. Which in itself is not an question as there is no mechanism for Ireland to leave the EU.

I thought the Lisbon treaty introduced a way?

oscarBravo

meglome wrote: »

I thought the Lisbon treaty introduced a way?

It did.

easychair

meglome wrote: »

I thought the Lisbon treaty introduced a way?

Apologies, I was thinking of the Euro as opposed to the EU.

View

easychair wrote: »

Apologies, I was thinking of the Euro as opposed to the EU.

Even so this is incorrect.

Leave the EU and you are perfectly free to leave the Euro at anytime.

FreudianSlippers

View wrote: »

Even so this is incorrect.

Leave the EU and you are perfectly free to leave the Euro at anytime.

Correct.

Interestingly in 2009 the ECB gave a non-binding opinion stating that although EU withdrawal would be legal under Article 50 of the Treaty for the Functioning of the EU, any unilateral withdrawal from the EMU and Euro without a negotiated agreement with the rest of the EU institutions without withdrawing from the EU at the same time would be illegal.
Interestingly, they also stated that there is no provision in EU law that provides for the expulsion of EU members from the EMU or the EU in general.

easychair

The position of the EU has, for more than twenty years, been portrayed in the UK as a few Tory eurosceptics versus everyone else. That has changed nowadays to no one, not even the Lib Dems, being in favour of joining the Euro, and the old political left right divide on Europe has evaporated, with two out of three voters now favouring withdrawal from the EU.

In the UK the EU is more and more seen as ineffective, profligate, and run by an anti democratic elite. And the same sentiments can be seen right across Europe, with dissatisfaction with the EU growing amongst the citizens.

It may be temporary, or we may be seeing a shift in attitudes towards the EU which is increasingly embedded in the voters minds. Only time will tell, and what is sure is that the coming months and years will be interesting.

One gets a string sense that the same is happening in Ireland, and the Irish voters seem to becoming more and more vocal in their distrust of the EU and its leaders.

McDave

easychair wrote: »

The position of the EU has, for more than twenty years, been portrayed in the UK as a few Tory eurosceptics versus everyone else. That has changed nowadays to no one, not even the Lib Dems, being in favour of joining the Euro, and the old political left right divide on Europe has evaporated, with two out of three voters now favouring withdrawal from the EU.

In the UK the EU is more and more seen as ineffective, profligate, and run by an anti democratic elite. And the same sentiments can be seen right across Europe, with dissatisfaction with the EU growing amongst the citizens.

It may be temporary, or we may be seeing a shift in attitudes towards the EU which is increasingly embedded in the voters minds. Only time will tell, and what is sure is that the coming months and years will be interesting.

One gets a string sense that the same is happening in Ireland, and the Irish voters seem to becoming more and more vocal in their distrust of the EU and its leaders.

Time will tell indeed.

However, the way I see it the more people care to investigate the way the EU is run, the more they'll come to the conclusion that it's run by the member states (and moreso by some than others) who are very jealous of their position and profoundly unwilling to let the so-called Brussels 'elites' play a decisive role. Witness the declining role of the Commission and the limited role of the Parliament, compared to the power of the Council of Ministers.

That's not to say there aren't elites on all levels of European politics, and that some would love there to be a federal EU. But ball rests firmly with the nations. Sovereignty is conditionally loaned to the institutions of the EU under strictly limited conditions with the express intention of improving the lot of European countries where they choose to cooperate. Of course the benefits are asymmetric. But if there's nothing in it for a country, they can always leave. And that's a reality that IMO keeps manners on the EU overall.

spartacus 109

I'm really wondering what is going to happen if the people of Ireland say no to economic governance from the European Union. I mean as I see it, it is only a matter of time before a referendum is held. I believe Eamon Gilmore is actually already hinting at one.

The Corinthian

easychair wrote: »

In the UK the EU is more and more seen as ineffective, profligate, and run by an anti democratic elite. And the same sentiments can be seen right across Europe, with dissatisfaction with the EU growing amongst the citizens.

This is unfortunately a direct consequence of the great compromise that is the EU. By that I mean that that the EU was built around conflicting national and federal interests, leading to a compromise that satisfies no one.

For example, consider the so-called anti democratic elite. Democratic institutions in the EU are essentially limited to the European parliament, which has few powers, because had it more it would mean a transfer of national sovereignty from national parliaments to a European one. And so instead, national parliaments, via their governments, appoint the commission, which has de facto executive power, which in turn results in a technocratic oligarchy - the aforementioned anti democratic elite - due to the distance between it and any democratic accountability.

Ultimately, if you want to have a democratic EU, then you need to make it (more) directly accountable to the electorate, but as this would mean sacrificing sovereignty, it would likely be opposed by the same Eurosceptics who whinge about it not being democratic in the first place.

Personally, I've long believed that the EU is presently very similar to the Old Swiss Confederacy - essentially a loose association of independent, sovereign states, each maintaining their own foreign, fiscal and (often) monetary policies and sticking together only as long as it is convenient. Such a loose union can appear stable for a long time, but only because it faces no serious crisis; when it does, competing interests soon bring the whole thing crashing down.

That's what happened to the Old Swiss Confederacy thanks to Napoleon and what may be happening to the EU thanks to the Euro crisis. Indeed, even the recent Franco-German calls to harmonize corporation tax are more about national (i.e. French) than anything that would benefit the Euro; the US dollar and Swiss Franc don't need it to survive, after all. Ultimately what may bring down the Euro and the EU is not federalism, but lack thereof.

But should Ireland leave the EU? I shudder at the thought. I have little nostalgia for the days when Ireland, a low-density, unindustrialised, peripheral island nation, followed a path of economic independence. It worked as a system only as long as you accepted permanent poverty - we couldn't even manage to have an independent currency until 1979.

And suggesting that Ireland could be like Norway or Switzerland is utterly farcical. Ireland has neither the oil or banking industries of either of these nations - indeed, Ireland is still only lightly industrialized in comparison. If one wanted to look at a more likely example of what Ireland could be, it would probably be Iceland, and that frankly is a far less attractive proposition.

Bagenal

Might I ask if you folks think that the EU should be more democratic? Take for example the likes of the Lisbon Treaty, shouldn't every citizen of the EU had a vote on the matter rather that just those nations whose constitution required a referendum?

meglome

Bagenal wrote: »

Might I ask if you folks think that the EU should be more democratic? Take for example the likes of the Lisbon Treaty, shouldn't every citizen of the EU had a vote on the matter rather that just those nations whose constitution required a referendum?

The EU is more democratic than our own Dail. Take a read of Scofflaws post here

There is no one rule for democracy, different countries do things differently. Who says our system is better? Honestly every referendum I live through here the less I like having them. Every liar and crackpot crawls out of the woodwork, worse the liars and crackpots from other countries get involved. And of course our government run the campaign with their usual 'skill'.

oscarBravo

Bagenal wrote: »

Might I ask if you folks think that the EU should be more democratic? Take for example the likes of the Lisbon Treaty, shouldn't every citizen of the EU had a vote on the matter rather that just those nations whose constitution required a referendum?

No. The EU isn't an organisation that consists of its citizens, but one that consists of its member states. It doesn't have a single demos, and the idea that it might ever have one is one that is vigorously resisted by nationalists to the extent that it's unlikely ever to happen.

It's interesting to note that it tends to be the same nationalists who argue for a single Europe-wide plebiscite on such matters, though. They don't seem to be capable of seeing the irony in such a position.

RandomName2

oscarBravo wrote: »

It's interesting to note that it tends to be the same nationalists who argue for a single Europe-wide plebiscite on such matters, though. They don't seem to be capable of seeing the irony in such a position.

In that case it should either be one thing or the other. It cannot indefinitely pretend to be both. Nor does it intend to; perpetually closer states of union is supposed to reduce us, by degrees, to that of a single demos.

Not that this will happen, as you have correctly asserted. Although somewhat staggered by the extant political infrastructure, (that is not inherently against the idea, but concerned, rather, with the maintenance of local authority and individual careerism); it will not be this that proves the bar to a hegemonical whole.

But this whole edifice whereby local politics are traded in international relations and screens are thrown up to prevent the consequences that the dictatorship of the majority would bear upon the ethical standing and harmony of this disparate group, shackled together by mutual currency and bureaucratic bond, is a compromise which, imo stinks.

FreudianSlippers

Bagenal wrote: »

Might I ask if you folks think that the EU should be more democratic? Take for example the likes of the Lisbon Treaty, shouldn't every citizen of the EU had a vote on the matter rather that just those nations whose constitution required a referendum?

No. What makes our democracy any better than their democracy?

The Corinthian

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

No. What makes our democracy any better than their democracy?

It's not, it's simply different and has limitations just like every other democracy. For example we don't vote directly on every single piece of legislation; we elect representatives who list out their general position on issues and then expect them to vote on our behalf on individual bills based upon those stated positions. The same applies in most European countries where it comes to the EU; politicians state their position on increased, or decreased, involvement and if elected they do as they say they would.

Ireland is unusual because of a legal challenge which forced us to put what are essentially international treaties to referenda, something that is arguably a bad idea - do you actually understand the text of the Lisbon treaty and if not how can you hope to make an informed opinion on it?

Democracy, more correctly Western representative democracy, has limits that balance out between practical and democratic considerations. In this regard Ireland is more 'democratic' on issues regarding EU policy, yet less 'democratic' when it comes to regional ones - we have a centralized government system, which differs greatly to the more federalized systems of countries such as Germany, Spain and Italy that give regions far more autonomy.

oscarBravo

RandomName2 wrote: »

In that case it should either be one thing or the other.

Are you campaigning for the abolition of the European Parliament?

easychair

oscarBravo wrote: »

Are you campaigning for the abolition of the European Parliament?

The EU is in a great state of flux, and there are few signs that the underlying problems with the Euro are going to be resolved. An economic project is still trying to be solved with a mixture of political might and political solutions.

It is a brave and probably foolish man who will predict what is going to happen, and it might be observed that the future isn't what it used to be. Ireland has hitched its star to the Euro, and the EU, and if the political might is not enough to resolve the inherent problems with the Euro, Ireland might be forced to paddle its own canoe, as will the other countries which have hitched their stars to the Euro.

Lets hope it is not a lesson of the triumph of hope over experience.

djpbarry

easychair wrote: »

...it might be observed that the future isn't what it used to be.

What?

davekel

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Norway is also a horrible comparison to almost any European country: Norway is probably the biggest exporter of oil not in OPEC, the 5th biggest exporter of oil in the world and the 3rd biggest exporter of natural gas. Norway is rich.

Hold on a second, how much GAS and Oil does Ireland have off its coast ??
According to the Department of Communications , Energy and Natural Resources estimates of gas and oil are probably the equivalent of about 10 billion barrels of oil in Irish waters. At $100 per barrel, that’s $1 trillion dollars!

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Ireland is a small country on Western Europe with no money, no utilised resources.

So Lets utilise our many natural resources and start to create our own litte tiger economy like japan or china . Lets use our many natural resources to kick start our own Industrial revolution that would be the envy of europe.

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

We NEED the EU, we NEED the Eurozone, we NEED to pull our heads out of our asses and stop blaming the Euro for the ineptitudes of the people running this country and the vast majority of the people in it.

As from above we dont need the EU and nobody is blaming the euro , the euro is only a currency , they are blaming the people who gave us the euro , the people who keep telling us everything will be ok once we further integrate , just pass this treaty and the light will shine, then when it doesn't oh well this treaty should do it, just pass this one also and so on.

davekel

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

No. What makes our democracy any better than their democracy?

In our Democracy our people get have a say on european integration , in theirs they don't ... simple

I was listening to the Director of the european movement international (pat Cox) on morning Ireland this morning and he says we dont need a referendum on a new treaty , we only need to put the new budget rules in our constitution !!

so its very good for us that our democracy allows the people directly to say yes or no to a treaty otherwise who knows what else would be going into our constitution without our say or knowledge. (well i mean theoretically it would be good if you were allowed to say no which is obviously not the case 2xlisbon 2xnice)

FreudianSlippers

davekel wrote: »

Hold on a second, how much GAS and Oil does Ireland have off its coast ??
According to the Department of Communications , Energy and Natural Resources estimates of gas and oil are probably the equivalent of about 10 billion barrels of oil in Irish waters. At $100 per barrel, that’s $1 trillion dollars!

Source?

Even if this were true we don't have the infrastructure available to exploit this. Plus your figures are skewed because NG is not as expensive as Oil.
Plus this figure would be drawn out over many many years.
Which leads to the next point...

So Lets utilise our many natural resources and start to create our own litte tiger economy like japan or china . Lets use our many natural resources to kick start our own Industrial revolution that would be the envy of europe.

Lets! I totally agree, but it seems our government doesn't with huge slashes to infrastructure to keep our social welfare class happy.

With that said, even if we started building now, we wouldn't see any commercial viability for 10 years at the least. I'm not saying that means we shouldn't do it, but it certainly isn't going to help us now and it's a drop in the bucket compared to what Norway and other OPEC countries have under their land.

As from above we dont need the EU and nobody is blaming the euro , the euro is only a currency , they are blaming the people who gave us the euro , the people who keep telling us everything will be ok once we further integrate , just pass this treaty and the light will shine, then when it doesn't oh well this treaty should do it, just pass this one also and so on.

I would disagree on so many levels. It's not just about us selling a minuscule amount of oil in 10-15 years. It's about fiscal cooperation, free movement of goods and workers, inwards investment in Europe and all of the other positives that the EU and Eurozone afford to us.

The problem is that the UK is the thorn in Europe's side... the Eurozone needs to be more closely integrated with the EU and the UK is standing in our way.

FreudianSlippers

davekel wrote: »

In our Democracy our people get have a say on european integration , in theirs they don't ... simple

I was listening to the Director of the european movement international (pat Cox) on morning Ireland this morning and he says we dont need a referendum on a new treaty , we only need to put the new budget rules in our constitution !!

so its very good for us that our democracy allows the people directly to say yes or no to a treaty otherwise who knows what else would be going into our constitution without our say or knowledge. (well i mean theoretically it would be good if you were allowed to say no which is obviously not the case 2xlisbon 2xnice)

That makes no sense. Germany is just as democratic as we are, they just do not require a referendum on the matter as they have been taken to have voted already.

As for the Lisbon thing, I think if I have to explain that again I might explode. Do a search, it has been explained why we voted twice (in line with OUR constitution) about a million times over the past few years.

davekel

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Source?
Lets! I totally agree, but it seems our government doesn't with huge slashes to infrastructure to keep our social welfare class happy.

to keep the social welfare class happy ?? come on do i need to mention NAMA property developer Joe O Reilly who owes the state 3 billion and is living it up in a 10million euro mansion being paid over 200 grand of tax payers money a year and all the other NAMA developers !... (you mean to keep the rich happy)

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

It's about fiscal cooperation, free movement of goods and workers, inwards investment in Europe and all of the other positives that the EU and Eurozone afford to us.

free movement of workers into ireland is leading to huge unemployment among native irish people stuggling to find employment because of the increased competition for jobs(especially low skilled jobs) , it only benefits the wealthy because it drives down labour costs.

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The problem is that the UK is the thorn in Europe's side... the Eurozone needs to be more closely integrated with the EU and the UK is standing in our way.

The UK is standing in my way , it may be standing in the way of a hardcore federalist movement within europe , but to me they have done europe a big favour.

The Corinthian

davekel wrote: »

Hold on a second, how much GAS and Oil does Ireland have off its coast ??
According to the Department of Communications , Energy and Natural Resources estimates of gas and oil are probably the equivalent of about 10 billion barrels of oil in Irish waters. At $100 per barrel, that’s $1 trillion dollars!

Ireland has no proven oil reserves and just under 10 bn cubic metres of proven natural gas reserves.

The current market rate for natural gas is around US$3.25 per MMBtu (approx. 28.317 cubic meters). This would give us a total gross revenue from all our proven reserves of US$1.14 billion. That should give us the Tiger economy you seek for a few months.

davekel wrote: »

In our Democracy our people get have a say on european integration , in theirs they don't ... simple

As I pointed out earlier, in many respects our democracy is less democratic than others in Europe - we have very little democratic autonomy on a local or regional level, unlike Spain, Italy or Germany.

so its very good for us that our democracy allows the people directly to say yes or no to a treaty otherwise who knows what else would be going into our constitution without our say or knowledge. (well i mean theoretically it would be good if you were allowed to say no which is obviously not the case 2xlisbon 2xnice)

Personally I'm all in favour of direct informed consent by the people. I'm not so crazy on uninformed consent that cites imaginary natural resources though.

davekel

The Corinthian wrote: »

Ireland has no proven oil reserves and just under 10 bn cubic metres of proven natural gas reserves.

Yes because we only know of 5% , the rest is waiting to be discovered .