Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

PhatPiggins

Deleted User wrote: »

Shippppppop

Super call once again emmet. What price was the +24

PhatPiggins

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Super call once again emmet. What price was the +24

10/11.

Lost the full weekend's profits on Leinster HC though

duckysauce

Deleted User wrote: »

10/11.

Lost the full weekend's profits on Leinster HC though

jesus hate when that happens , had leinster in a accum the rest had won aggggghhh.

PhatPiggins

Deleted User wrote: »

10/11.

Lost the full weekend's profits on Leinster HC though

Thought Connacht were plus 27/28 at the off ?

Bad luck on Leinster

PhatPiggins

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Thought Connacht were plus 27/28 at the off ?

Bad luck on Leinster

yup, got on the HC too early, had another bite at 27 too.

Fancied the market to swing down to 19-22 points for the game, so was happy with the 24, was even happier with the 27 too.

Juwwi

Anyone want to guess what the Connacht handicap will be this week against Harlequins ?

Would +12 be around the mark ?

+16 imo

profitius

+10 or lower I'd say since they're at home.

porterbelly

Under +10 I'd say, closer to +6 I'd imagine

We've played them 3 times in the last year and there's been nothing much between us. Even given our poor run, it will be a tight game

PhatPiggins

Deleted User wrote: »

+16 imo

Sorry don't you work in for a bookie

I'd be delighted with +16 myself

Gracelessly Tom

Deleted User wrote: »

+16 imo

I really hope you're right! Lump on at +16.

antogz1979

I work in that sort of thing. It looks like + 8 or +9, still a few factors to take in, but should be around that.

Gracelessly Tom

antogz1979 wrote: »

I work in that sort of thing. It looks like + 8 or +9, still a few factors to take in, but should be around that.

Work harder!! Stretch it out to +12!

antogz1979

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Work harder!! Stretch it out to +12!

Wish I could. I'd say + 10 will be available. Ulster look to be at + 8 or 9 as well, but still factors to be take into that as well.

Gracelessly Tom

antogz1979 wrote: »

Wish I could. I'd say + 10 will be available. Ulster look to be at + 8 or 9 as well, but still factors to be take into that as well.

I'd take +10, not many teams win comfortably down in Galway.

The Ulster one I'd steer clear of, while I think Clermont will win and not allow Ulster the LBP it's not a fully convinced argument.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deleted User wrote: »

+16 imo

I'd bite your hand off for that

CoDy1

CoDy1 wrote: »

On the alternative Hc's on PP, Munster -13 & Leinster -5 is a little over evens.

You could throw Toulouse -18 and get 2/1

wp_rathead

Prices on PP at the moment:
Connacht +9 v Quins
Gloucester +5 v Toulouse
Ulster + 12 v Clermont
Munster +5 v Northampton

Connacht +9 & Toulouse -5 look decent. Connacht have only lost -9 on two occasions (Toulouse and Ospreys) at home.
Harlequins away:
Sat 03/09/11 AP London Irish 24 - 29 Harlequins (5 win)
Sat 24/09/11 AP Worcester Warriors 15 - 17 Harlequins (2 win)
Sat 08/10/11 AP Leicester Tigers 18 - 27 Harlequins (9 win)
Fri 21/10/11 AWC Sale Sharks 25 - 37 Harlequins (12 win)
Sat 05/11/11 AP Bath Rugby 13 - 26 Harlequins (13 win)
Sat 19/11/11 ERC Gloucester Rugby 9 - 28 Harlequins (19 win)
Sun 04/12/11 AP London Wasps 16 - 22 Harlequins (6 win)
Sun 18/12/11 ERC Stade Toulousain 24 - 31 Harlequins (7 win)
Sat 31/12/11 AP Exeter Chiefs 9 - 11 Harlequins (2 win)
Fri 06/01/12 AP Northampton Saints 24 - 3 Harlequins (21 loss)

Quins have not won by 9 or more points in 6/10 of their away games

CatFromHue

Also Connacht "only" lost to Harlequins in The Sportsground last season 9-15.

PhatPiggins

wprathead wrote: »

Prices on PP at the moment:
Connacht +9 v Quins
Gloucester +5 v Toulouse
Ulster + 12 v Clermont
Munster +5 v Northampton

Connacht +9 & Toulouse -5 look decent. Connacht have only lost -9 on two occasions (Toulouse and Ospreys) at home.
Harlequins away:
Sat 03/09/11 AP London Irish 24 - 29 Harlequins (5 win)
Sat 24/09/11 AP Worcester Warriors 15 - 17 Harlequins (2 win)
Sat 08/10/11 AP Leicester Tigers 18 - 27 Harlequins (9 win)
Fri 21/10/11 AWC Sale Sharks 25 - 37 Harlequins (12 win)
Sat 05/11/11 AP Bath Rugby 13 - 26 Harlequins (13 win)
Sat 19/11/11 ERC Gloucester Rugby 9 - 28 Harlequins (19 win)
Sun 04/12/11 AP London Wasps 16 - 22 Harlequins (6 win)
Sun 18/12/11 ERC Stade Toulousain 24 - 31 Harlequins (7 win)
Sat 31/12/11 AP Exeter Chiefs 9 - 11 Harlequins (2 win)
Fri 06/01/12 AP Northampton Saints 24 - 3 Harlequins (21 loss)

Quins have not won by 9 or more points in 6/10 of their away games

Said it before but I love your attention to detail

Plus 10

antogz1979 wrote: »

I work in that sort of thing. It looks like + 8 or +9, still a few factors to take in, but should be around that.

Do you work in PP?? Right on their mark - fair play to PP for pricing it ahead of everyone else. I had Connaught at +13 and I would definetely be on them at that - might wait and see if a +10/+11 comes from one of the UK players

wp_rathead

Just looking at Toulouse -4 away to Gloucester

Gloucester at home this season:
Sat 10/09/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 29 - 8 Worcester Warriors (21 win)
Sat 24/09/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 23 - 6 Bath Rugby (17 win)
Sat 01/10/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 33 - 30 London Irish (3 win)
Sat 29/10/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 17 - 19 Saracens (2 loss)
Sat 19/11/11 ERC Gloucester Rugby 9 - 28 Harlequins (19 loss)
Sat 26/11/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 14 - 19 Leicester Tigers (5 loss)
Sat 17/12/11 ERC Gloucester Rugby 23 - 19 Connacht (4 win)
Mon 26/12/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 39 - 10 London Wasps (29 win)

Lost 2/8 games at home by 4 or more points- Quins and Tigers

Toulouse away this season:
Fri 26/08/11 T1 Bayonne 18 - 13 Stade Toulousain (5 loss)
Sun 04/09/11 T1 Lyon OU 9 - 19 Stade Toulousain (10 win)
Fri 23/09/11 T1 SU Agen 23 - 24 Stade Toulousain (1 win)
Fri 14/10/11 T1 Castres Olympique 24 - 3 Stade Toulousain (21 loss)
Sat 19/11/11 ERC Connacht 10 - 36 Stade Toulousain (26 win)
Sat 26/11/11 T1 Brive 9 - 9 Stade Toulousain (0)
Fri 09/12/11 ERC Harlequins 10 - 21 Stade Toulousain (11 win)
Fri 23/12/11 T1 Montpellier 25 - 45 Stade Toulousain (20 win)

Toulouse won -4 on 4/8 away games - against Lyon, Connacht, Quins and Montpellier

6/16 the handicap was bet- 37.5%

gonna pass

Podge_irl

I like the look of Treviso +10. The only time Saracens have won by 10 points or more on the road all season was away to Leicester during the world cup.

4PP

wprathead wrote: »

Just looking at Toulouse -4 away to Gloucester

Gloucester at home this season:
Sat 10/09/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 29 - 8 Worcester Warriors (21 win)
Sat 24/09/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 23 - 6 Bath Rugby (17 win)
Sat 01/10/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 33 - 30 London Irish (3 win)
Sat 29/10/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 17 - 19 Saracens (2 loss)
Sat 19/11/11 ERC Gloucester Rugby 9 - 28 Harlequins (19 loss)
Sat 26/11/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 14 - 19 Leicester Tigers (5 loss)
Sat 17/12/11 ERC Gloucester Rugby 23 - 19 Connacht (4 win)
Mon 26/12/11 AP Gloucester Rugby 39 - 10 London Wasps (29 win)

Lost 2/8 games at home by 4 or more points- Quins and Tigers

Toulouse away this season:
Fri 26/08/11 T1 Bayonne 18 - 13 Stade Toulousain (5 loss)
Sun 04/09/11 T1 Lyon OU 9 - 19 Stade Toulousain (10 win)
Fri 23/09/11 T1 SU Agen 23 - 24 Stade Toulousain (1 win)
Fri 14/10/11 T1 Castres Olympique 24 - 3 Stade Toulousain (21 loss)
Sat 19/11/11 ERC Connacht 10 - 36 Stade Toulousain (26 win)
Sat 26/11/11 T1 Brive 9 - 9 Stade Toulousain (0)
Fri 09/12/11 ERC Harlequins 10 - 21 Stade Toulousain (11 win)
Fri 23/12/11 T1 Montpellier 25 - 45 Stade Toulousain (20 win)

Toulouse won -4 on 4/8 away games - against Lyon, Connacht, Quins and Montpellier

6/16 the handicap was bet- 37.5%

gonna pass

Whats that saying? "there are lies, lies & then statistics"? or something like that..........

At best the last four games (Stade) have some relevance to this weekends match, but not enough to make a huge difference.
Results are of little relevance without factoring in the team fielded.

Stade are beginning to warm up for the important part of the season. Probably running at about 70-80% of their potential at the 'mo.

Weather & 'ref will play a big part but from where I'm sitting -4 looks very good.

wp_rathead

4PP wrote: »

Whats that saying? "there are lies, lies & then statistics"? or something like that..........

At best the last four games (Stade) have some relevance to this weekends match, but not enough to make a huge difference.
Results are of little relevance without factoring in the team fielded.

Stade are beginning to warm up for the important part of the season. Probably running at about 70-80% of their potential at the 'mo.

Weather & 'ref will play a big part but from where I'm sitting -4 looks very good.

"Lies, damned lies and statistics";)

yes there are other variables to take into account but this formula has been working for me lately- I thought -4 @ 10/11 was amazing value for Toulouse but im still gonna pass on it. GL if you go for it:)

4PP

wprathead wrote: »

"Lies, damned lies and statistics";)

yes there are other variables to take into account but this formula has been working for me lately- I thought -4 @ 10/11 was amazing value for Toulouse but im still gonna pass on it. GL if you go for it:)

If it works for you run with it The most important thing is to take more from the books than you put down

As for going for it, the -4, would you be surprised if I said I was waiting for the teamsheet?

wp_rathead

4PP wrote: »

If it works for you run with it The most important thing is to take more from the books than you put down

As for going for it, the -4, would you be surprised if I said I was waiting for the teamsheet?

I still think -4 for Toulouse is a good looking bet but last time I went against what stats said it bit me in my ass:

myself wrote:

Toulouse -12 HT @ 10/11
Did bit of research there cuase there is feck all on TV
Toulouse average score at HT at home is: 13.2 - 9.4 (win by 3.8)
11 home games HT score: 25-16; 3-0; 15-3; 11-6; 10-9; 12-10; 8-10; 13-12; 10-15; 15-12; 23-10
Only bet the -12 HT Handicap once (vs Lyon on 7th Jan, last Saturday)

Connacht average score at HT away is: 10.9 - 7.4 (loss by 3.5)
9 away games HT score: 3-8; 6-0; 17-10; 8-20; 8-3; 19-10; 10-13; 18-3; 9-0
Only lost +12 HT Handicap once (vs Munster on St. Stephens Day)

I still think Toulouse will beat the -12, but it is food for thought

HT score was 10-3:o

liking Podge's Treviso +10- they have decent record at home

profitius

The difference between those stats and this game is its the HEC and Toulouse will want a home quarter final. I might back them myself because I feel they could win by 20pts if they wanted to.

Treviso +10pts doesn't look bad either.

Toulouse at 4/9 is an absolute steal.

Ignore the handicap. That's a 45% almost guaranteed return.

profitius

Deleted User wrote: »

Toulouse at 4/9 is an absolute steal.

Ignore the handicap. That's a 45% almost guaranteed return.

You're right. The handicap is a bit dodgy but its extremely unlikely they'll lose this match.