Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

duckysauce

ulster now -1 with pp, bit of cash must have gone on them

PhatPiggins

Deleted User wrote: »

I can see Tolouse getting a cricket score in the first half, perhaps leading by 15-20 by half time. Whereupon, they should realise that Connacht pose no threat to them. So from their perspective, there's no problem in allowing Connacht back into the game/ aim to earn their bonus point. The team will be fragmented by substitutions and to be honest, a lack of interest in seeing out the end of the game. The problem would be if Connacht actually manage to put up a good fight in the first half, forcing Tolouse to keep their team and strategy together, where they'd have the opportunity to pull away at the end if haven't earned their BP at that stage.

Leinster v Bath 2011, or France v Ireland RWC 2007 would be a comparable gameflow imo.

My main concern for your bet is that tries for could come into play in determining the last home QF spot. Leinster,Munster and Sarries (imo) have 3 of the home quarters as good a secured. That leaves Toulouse (or Quins) in a straight shoot out with Edinburgh/Cardiff for the last spot. All have similar points and tries totals. Toulouse have Glaws away for their last game which is tricky by most standards. I think they'll see this game as the ideal opportunity to not only get the 5 points but to boost their tries for total as well.

Just my opinion mind.

Gracelessly Tom

Been looking at the h/c's for the weekend, thinking of:

Ulster -2 @10/11 (Ulster to win comfortably enough)
Cardiff @ evens (LI are out and Cardiff should be up for this)
Gloucester +9 @10/11 (hosed Quins last week, albeit in Kingsholm)
Leinster -8 @10/11 (Seem to be really motoring now)
Sarries -7 @10/11 (Biarritz are a shambles this season)
Scarlets @4/5 (Saints are out of Europe, Scarlets still in with a shout)

returns €47.82 for each €1 "invested"

Judgement Day

Thanks for the reminder about Saracens vs Biarritz! The latter have been awful of late and -7 should be easy money.

Ulster now -2 with Paddy Power and still look great value.

Tonight Bordeaux vs Bayonne - any thoughts? Bordeaux beat Bayonne on the road and I can't see why they won't repeat it tonight but PP have Bayonne as the favourites - am I missing something?

Gracelessly Tom

Judgement Day wrote: »

Thanks for the reminder about Saracens vs Biarritz! The latter have been awful of late and -7 should be easy money.

Ulster now -2 with Paddy Power and still look great value.

Tonight Bordeaux vs Bayonne - any thoughts? Bordeaux beat Bayonne on the road and I can't see why they won't repeat it tonight but PP have Bayonne as the favourites - am I missing something?

Can't say I'm an expert on Bordeaux rugby but it looks like they have a weakened team out tonight, certainly different from the team that won the Top 14 game and they lost the away amlin game easily. Out of the comp and Bayonne only a point behind Wasps so will be well up for this one.

Having said all that, who knows with French clubs what will happen!!

Judgement Day

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Can't say I'm an expert on Bordeaux rugby but it looks like they have a weakened team out tonight, certainly different from the team that won the Top 14 game and they lost the away amlin game easily. Out of the comp and Bayonne only a point behind Wasps so will be well up for this one.

Having said all that, who knows with French clubs what will happen!!

Spot on - (teams below from previous game with Bayonne and tonight's lineup) but I didn't know enough about Bordeaux to work out which was the weaker team. Might steer clear.

DeDoc

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Been looking at the h/c's for the weekend, thinking of:

Ulster -2 @10/11 (Ulster to win comfortably enough)
Cardiff @ evens (LI are out and Cardiff should be up for this)
Gloucester +9 @10/11 (hosed Quins last week, albeit in Kingsholm)
Leinster -8 @10/11 (Seem to be really motoring now)
Sarries -7 @10/11 (Biarritz are a shambles this season)
Scarlets @4/5 (Saints are out of Europe, Scarlets still in with a shout)

returns €47.82 for each €1 "invested"

Yep on Ulster.
No on Cardiff - LI are far from out. Only 6 points from the top to bottom of the group, and the top two teams play away this weekend and then home in the last weekend against the same opposition. Quite possible that the last round of games will have 4 teams with only 2 points covering them.
Gloucester. Generally like the bet, but a concern is the differing incentives for the teams. I'll certainly be watching the team news and camp quotes before getting stuck in.
Leinster. I'm a little cautious. Leinster haven't been kicking ass away from home, in general, and Glasgow have plenty to play for. We're a much better side, but I'm not 100% confident of beating the cap
Sarries. Again, I'm cautious here. Biarritz have been a little better recently, and Sarries still don't totally convince me. On balance yes, but a few signs that Biarritz are actually taking this seriously. They've won (well) away before in both Wasps and Leicester, so it isn't like they can't do it. Mind you the infuriating feckers have also lost at home to Italian sides etc!
Scarlets: I fancy Saints for this actually. Scarlets really aren't that good a side IMO, and Saints are in better form now. Scarlets did well (obviously) in the first game, but they did get the rub of the green. I think Saints will want some revenge.

DeDoc

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Been looking at the h/c's for the weekend, thinking of:

Ulster -2 @10/11 (Ulster to win comfortably enough)
Cardiff @ evens (LI are out and Cardiff should be up for this)
Gloucester +9 @10/11 (hosed Quins last week, albeit in Kingsholm)
Leinster -8 @10/11 (Seem to be really motoring now)
Sarries -7 @10/11 (Biarritz are a shambles this season)
Scarlets @4/5 (Saints are out of Europe, Scarlets still in with a shout)

returns €47.82 for each €1 "invested"

Yep on Ulster.
No on Cardiff - LI are far from out. Only 6 points from the top to bottom of the group, and the top two teams play away this weekend and then home in the last weekend against the same opposition. Quite possible that the last round of games will have 4 teams with only 2 points covering them.
Gloucester. Generally like the bet, but a concern is the differing incentives for the teams. I'll certainly be watching the team news and camp quotes before getting stuck in.
Leinster. I'm a little cautious. Leinster haven't been kicking ass away from home, in general, and Glasgow have plenty to play for. We're a much better side, but I'm not 100% confident of beating the cap
Sarries. Again, I'm cautious here. Biarritz have been a little better recently, and Sarries still don't totally convince me. On balance yes, but a few signs that Biarritz are actually taking this seriously. They've won (well) away before in both Wasps and Leicester, so it isn't like they can't do it. Mind you the infuriating feckers have also lost at home to Italian sides etc!
Scarlets: I fancy Saints for this actually. Scarlets really aren't that good a side IMO, and Saints are in better form now. Scarlets did well (obviously) in the first game, but they did get the rub of the green. I think Saints will want some revenge.

wp_rathead

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Been looking at the h/c's for the weekend, thinking of:

Ulster -2 @10/11 (Ulster to win comfortably enough)
Sarries -7 @10/11 (Biarritz are a shambles this season)
Scarlets @4/5 (Saints are out of Europe, Scarlets still in with a shout)

returns €6.56 return for each €1 "invested"

Could juice it up with a couple of France Pro D2 match coupons:
Auch 1/10
Grenoible 1/33
La Rouchell 1/14

Comes to 6.73/1

Judgement Day

Final score 6 - 12 to Bayonne. Glad I stayed away now.

Gracelessly Tom

DeDoc wrote: »

Yep on Ulster.
No on Cardiff - LI are far from out. Only 6 points from the top to bottom of the group, and the top two teams play away this weekend and then home in the last weekend against the same opposition. Quite possible that the last round of games will have 4 teams with only 2 points covering them.
Gloucester. Generally like the bet, but a concern is the differing incentives for the teams. I'll certainly be watching the team news and camp quotes before getting stuck in.
Leinster. I'm a little cautious. Leinster haven't been kicking ass away from home, in general, and Glasgow have plenty to play for. We're a much better side, but I'm not 100% confident of beating the cap
Sarries. Again, I'm cautious here. Biarritz have been a little better recently, and Sarries still don't totally convince me. On balance yes, but a few signs that Biarritz are actually taking this seriously. They've won (well) away before in both Wasps and Leicester, so it isn't like they can't do it. Mind you the infuriating feckers have also lost at home to Italian sides etc!
Scarlets: I fancy Saints for this actually. Scarlets really aren't that good a side IMO, and Saints are in better form now. Scarlets did well (obviously) in the first game, but they did get the rub of the green. I think Saints will want some revenge.

I see your point regarding LI but I still think Cardiff are going to be too good for them this weekend. LI are no great shakes imo.

Quins - wheels seem to be coming off them and if Evans is still out or not fully fit they may struggle to put away Gloucester. Only doubt is history, Gloucester have an awful record in the Stoop.

The more I think about it the more I think you could be right about Saints, they are hitting some form and could easily win this. Home advantage still just about swinging it for me.

Leinster will cut loose.....blue tinted glasses on here!!:D

Gracelessly Tom

Judgement Day wrote: »

Final score 6 - 12 to Bayonne. Glad I stayed away now.

Saw that, must have been a cracker!

PhatPiggins

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Saw that, must have been a cracker!

The tv clock and score board were the only thing you could see. Absolute pea souper thick fog. Phillips pretty much won it for Bayonne with his defence.

wp_rathead

Toulouse -12 at HT @10/11 in Connacht game looks good. Connacht always seems to start slowly and the home side will want to make amends for the Quins performance..

EDIT: Did bit of research there cuase there is feck all on TV
Toulouse average score at HT at home is: 13.2 - 9.4 (win by 3.8)
11 home games HT score: 25-16; 3-0; 15-3; 11-6; 10-9; 12-10; 8-10; 13-12; 10-15; 15-12; 23-10
Only bet the -12 HT Handicap once (vs Lyon on 7th Jan, last Saturday)

Connacht average score at HT away is: 10.9 - 7.4 (loss by 3.5)
9 away games HT score: 3-8; 6-0; 17-10; 8-20; 8-3; 19-10; 10-13; 18-3; 9-0
Only lost +12 HT Handicap once (vs Munster on St. Stephens Day)

I still think Toulouse will beat the -12, but it is food for thought

CatFromHue

Treviso are +17 away to the Ospreys but the Opsreys are missing Ryan Jones( calf), James King (ear), Richard Fussell (ankle), Alun Wyn Jones (foot), Nikki Walker (ACL), and George Stowers who is banned. They've been a bit of a tricky team for Ospreys as they drew with them in Italy in the HEC and only beat them by 4 in the Pro12, which was also in Italy.

Considering the Ospreys are out of the HEC and are struggling to make the Amlin it's hard to know what their motivation tonight will be.

seanhynes

Racing metro are ****ing ****e:mad:

thomond2006

SUFTUM!!!

LFC5Times

Well in Ulster

I think a few off here also backed Ulster earlier in the week :pac:

PhatPiggins

LFC5Times wrote: »

Well in Ulster

I think a few off here also backed Ulster earlier in the week :pac:

Ulster went from 10/11 to 4/6. Bookies took a hammering on that one, my heart bleeds

duckysauce

there is a tear in my eye at the moment for the bookies



Best of luck for the rest of the weekend started off v well

duckysauce

profitius wrote: »

Ulster are 10/11 against Leicester at the weekend. I think they'll win. They're in form, its in Ravebhill on a friday night. A perfect setting for Ulster. They've almost a full strength squad and it was close against Leicester in Leicester.

cheers for getting the ball rolling

CoDy1

On the alternative Hc's on PP, Munster -13 & Leinster -5 is a little over evens.

You could throw Toulouse -18 and get 2/1

CatFromHue

I had Ulster
to win at 10/11
-7@ 2/1
-13@ 4/1
-23@ 9/1
Yep 4 bets on the same game, I just staggered the amounts I bet as the handicap went up.

I also had Edinburgh +7 @1-/11 so not too bad a night for me.

All I need to do is start laying bets bigger than a tenner from now on!

Podge_irl

While I think Leinster will win on Sunday, are Warriors not slightly overpriced at 3/1? They haven't lost at home since their RWC players came back. In fact they've only lost two games since then - away to Scarlets by 2 points and away to Leinster (by a lot admittedly).

its_phil

anyone else like the look of stade francais -22 vs Bucharest

profitius

Northampton are evens to beat Llanelli. I've a small bet on them.

They'll want revenge and have picked their best team. I think they'll be up for this and play no fancy rugby but use their pack to grind Llanelli down.

antogz1979

Totesport have a mistake on their site. Northampton can be got at + 4 13/10. Just saw it now myself.

wp_rathead

I wish gambling was always as straight forward that Ulster game last night :P
some night

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Tolouse to race to 4 tries, but to take the foot off the pedal.

I'm deep in Connacht +24 and Ulster scratch

Shippppppop

profitius

antogz1979 wrote: »

Totesport have a mistake on their site. Northampton can be got at + 4 13/10. Just saw it now myself.

Were you able to get it? Knowing bookmakers they'd have little problem saying its a mistake and paying you back less.