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Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

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    #362
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    11091200_2_1000.gif


    Looking like a glancing blow this time.


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    #363
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The winds/gusts that people are talking about happening at the moment are from a seperate low pressure system.

    Katia is still on the far side of the Atlantic.


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    #364
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    nacho libre wrote: »
    just be careful if you do go outside that your toupee isn't blown away:p

    Thats long gone with the last storm :pac:


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    #365
    anoble66
    Registered Users Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭anoble66


    will be interesting to see what max gusts the M4 and M6 databuoys pickup on Monday morning

    http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/observations.htm#M6

    http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/observations.htm#M4

    wind meter at shannonbridge is already picking up 66km/h gusts..

    http://www.wopweather.net/


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    #366
    saywhatyousee
    Registered Users Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭saywhatyousee


    I am about 3 miles north-west of sligo town by the coast very windy,showers earlier,and its very very warm and humid


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    #367
    djrichard
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 360 ✭✭djrichard


    Is this the start of it? Im in Malahide and the power just went 20 mins ago. Phoned ESB and they report a serious power failure in Airside, expected to be repaired by 18:15. Bangs goes my shopping plans for the day. House alarms are going off all aroumd me and the trees are flexing badly, I predict the end, make your peace with the Lord my children! We are done for....

    Was looking forward to XFactor too, no way my mobile battery will last until then.


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    #368
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Hot off the presses of the National Hurricane Center...

    ...KATIA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE BRITISH ISLES AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY...

    11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 10
    Location: 44.7°N 47.7°W
    Max sustained: 80 mph
    Moving: ENE at 53 mph
    Min pressure: 954 mb


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    #369
    anoble66
    Registered Users Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭anoble66


    See there is a silver lining, no x-factor :D





    djrichard wrote: »
    Is this the start of it? Im in Malahide and the power just went 20 mins ago. Phoned ESB and they report a serious power failure in Airside, expected to be repaired by 18:15. Bangs goes my shopping plans for the day. House alarms are going off all aroumd me and the trees are flexing badly, I predict the end, make your peace with the Lord my children! We are done for....

    Was looking forward to XFactor too, no way my mobile battery will last until then.


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    #370
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    djrichard wrote: »
    Is this the start of it? Im in Malahide and the power just went 20 mins ago. Phoned ESB and they report a serious power failure in Airside, expected to be repaired by 18:15. Bangs goes my shopping plans for the day. House alarms are going off all aroumd me and the trees are flexing badly, I predict the end, make your peace with the Lord my children! We are done for....

    Was looking forward to XFactor too, no way my mobile battery will last until then.

    No pal, this is just another weaker low passing by.
    MAd to hear about the power outage! , hopefully no serious problems in the resulting area.


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    #371
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    NHC track has shifted about 30 miles closer Ireland. No major change there, let's see what the 12Z models bring.


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    #372
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    djrichard wrote: »
    Is this the start of it? Im in Malahide and the power just went 20 mins ago. Phoned ESB and they report a serious power failure in Airside, expected to be repaired by 18:15. Bangs goes my shopping plans for the day. House alarms are going off all aroumd me and the trees are flexing badly, I predict the end, make your peace with the Lord my children! We are done for....

    Was looking forward to XFactor too, no way my mobile battery will last until then.

    Ah feck, I live in Seaburythere too but I'm in work - better be back when I get home at 7!


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    #373
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    From the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    WIND...GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
    THE BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY...AND COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND
    DISRUPT TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES. INTERESTS IN
    AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE AT
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.

    SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT U.S.
    NEW ENGLAND AREAS...ATLANTIC CANADA...AND BERMUDA TODAY....AND
    SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE BRITISH ISLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE
    SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
    CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
    OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 100 MILLIMETERS...
    2 TO 4 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF SCOTLAND
    THROUGH MONDAY.


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    #374
    Discodog
    Registered Users Posts: 15,857 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    zenno wrote: »
    track tropical storm katia http://www.stormpulse.com/


    Click "on" in the forecast models box (top right) - one track has it hitting Poland !. The one with the loop over England would be scary.


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    #375
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    redsunset wrote: »
    Just in case Ex KATIA does decide to play silly games,here is the 6pm BBC news showing the damage of 1987.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umow5DSrP6E

    I remember it well, was only 13 at the time and was living in Kent. The howling winds woke the whole house and then about an hour later the power went, I vividly remember looking out the window as the power went down and the darkness was eerie...that's when next doors shed did a triple somersault into our garden and landed on it's base as though it was meant to be there. It didn't stay there long needless to say. School was closed for the day and we all went down to the woods to play amongst the fallen trees (health and safety nightmare in retrospect) there were a few lives lost in the south east but to be honest I'm really surprised there weren't more. Was scary and exciting in equal measure. Hopefully Katia will live up to expectations and not turn into a moist octopus - without the fatalities obviously.


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    #376
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    Interesting that the system on our west coast now isn't even anything to do with ex-Katia...been fairly windy here in the NE all day, with some strong gusts.

    Image of katia coming over the horizon on eumetsat with current low and katia outlined

    >

    173929.jpg


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    #377
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Discodog wrote: »
    Click "on" in the forecast models box (top right) - one track has it hitting Poland !. The one with the loop over England would be scary.

    The one hitting Poland is a model designed to forecast tropical cyclones in tropical waters, it's not designed to handle storms in this part of the world & the one doing the loop is a climatology model. I'd just ignore them for this situation.


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    #378
    Bigcheeze
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,858 ✭✭✭Bigcheeze


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    No pal, this is just another weaker low passing by.
    MAd to hear about the power outage! , hopefully no serious problems in the resulting area.

    Wouldn't read too much into it. Someone farts in Malahide and the power goes out.


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    #379
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    So the latest from the NHC is that Katia is 954mb right now.

    The 06Z GFS has it between 973mb and 969mb between 12pm and 6pm today from what I can see.

    :confused:


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    #380
    Discodog
    Registered Users Posts: 15,857 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The one hitting Poland is a model designed to forecast tropical cyclones in tropical waters, it's not designed to handle storms in this part of the world & the one doing the loop is a climatology model. I'd just ignore them for this situation.

    Nah I am sending them to the Sunday Tabloids "Hurricane to circle UK :eek:"

    Katia is probably a common name in Poland - she's just going home :D


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    #381
    anoble66
    Registered Users Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭anoble66


    oh man, do it :D

    Discodog wrote: »
    Nah I am sending them to the Sunday Tabloids "Hurricane to circle UK :eek:"

    Katia is probably a common name in Poland - she's just going home :D


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    #382
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    12Z rolling out now, let's see if it delivers


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    #383
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cherryghost wrote: »
    12Z rolling out now, let's see if it delivers

    Seems to have initialised Katia too weakly based on the latest from the NHC?

    12Z has it at 969 at 6pm today but the NHC have the pressure down to 954 already.


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    #384
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    UKMO severe weather warning for Monday, NI region.
    The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of wet and very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt of the winds,

    2011-9-12


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    #385
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    At 18 hours its already further north and west than its position on the previous run. Looking like a downgrade on this run, but we'll see.


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    #386
    skelliser
    Registered Users Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭skelliser


    redsunset wrote: »
    Just in case Ex KATIA does decide to play silly games,here is the 6pm BBC news showing the damage of 1987.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umow5DSrP6E

    the night before!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE


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    #387
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Yep, its a 970 from what I can gather

    EDIT: And its more northerly already :/


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    #388
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    At 24 hours its further northwest and weaker than the last GFS run showed. But since it initialised Katia as a weaker system than what the NHC says maybe this whole run is questionable.


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    #389
    Winger_PL
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    Discodog wrote: »
    Katia is probably a common name in Poland - she's just going home :D

    Just for the record - Katia is not a Polish name (there's Katarzyna / Kasia).
    Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what the next charts paint.


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    #390
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    ..... :( * TEAR*


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    #391
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A considerable difference in position at only 36 hours between the 12Z and 06Z GFS.


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