LightningBolt's NFL, Soccer and Rugby Picks

LightningBolt

rodeo1985 wrote: »

hey lightningbolt, what do you think of tonga -6 v canada on wednesday? would have thought it was a decent bet considering the performance they put in v NZ...

To be honest the line is about right. I'd have them at -7 but the quick turnaround doesn't do them many favours to be honest. Canadians will be targeting this as a game to win so will go all out for the 80 minutes. I'd advise to stay away personally as I can't see them running a score up.

Really like the Georgia bet if you're looking for value. At +22 it's a great line. I'm currently mulling over Namibia +31 on Powers. Quick turnaround does Namibia a disservice again but their gameplan seems to be pick and go within 35 yards of goal and take a pop at the drop goal. Samoa should take a lead into the second half where they'll definitely look to ease off seeing as they play Wales four days later.

rodeo1985

LightningBolt wrote: »

To be honest the line is about right. I'd have them at -7 but the quick turnaround doesn't do them many favours to be honest. Canadians will be targeting this as a game to win so will go all out for the 80 minutes. I'd advise to stay away personally as I can't see them running a score up.

Really like the Georgia bet if you're looking for value. At +22 it's a great line. I'm currently mulling over Namibia +31 on Powers. Quick turnaround does Namibia a disservice again but their gameplan seems to be pick and go within 35 yards of goal and take a pop at the drop goal. Samoa should take a lead into the second half where they'll definitely look to ease off seeing as they play Wales four days later.

cheers dude!

LightningBolt

Argentina/Romania RWC - Romania +22

Romania showed they've got a bruising pack when playing Scotland and more than capable of getting a couple of scores. Argentina are hurting after that English game. They're down a couple of bodies and they'll be wary not to have any more injuries as they face Scotland in a must win game eight days later. Personally think the Argies will win out by two to three scores. I put the handicap at 18-20. I missed out on the +25, if that was the line I'd be throwing a fair few points on it.

2.32pts @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Running Bank: 80pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Samoa/Namibia RWC - Namibia +33

Samoa send out a decent side who'll look to run up an early score. Short turn around goes against a Namibian team who are all professional. May be slightly tired. However, Samoa should ease up 50 minutes in seeing as they've to play Wales in a really important game. Namibia should be able to pull a score or two back. Expect Namibia to keep the scoreboard ticking over with dropkicks too. I make the line about 30 so I've staked only a small punt on this, it was at 30/31 a couple of days but the small increase makes me slightly more confident about this.

2pts @ Evens (Bet365)

Running Bank: 78pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Tonga/Canada RWC - Canada +7

I'll advise, I based my call above on Tonga being on the side they had playing New Zealand. They've made 11 changes to the team so I'm not fully sure if they'll play as well as they did at times against the ABs. Canadian team isn't spectacular by any means but it will be solid enough defensively. Their best players in my opinion would be Cudamore, Aaron Carpenter and Pritchard at full back. They'll be physically able to match the Tongans and this should be a close one. I actually like this line and think Canada should only be given 4 pts. Will be watching this with interest.

3pts @ Evens (Bet365)

Running Bank: 75pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Georgia/Scotland RWC - Georgia +22

11pts @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

Georgia to win outright 10/1 (Paddy Power)

Handicap - Win +10pts

Outright - Lost

LightningBolt wrote: »

Tonga/Canada RWC - Canada +7

3pts @ Evens (Bet365)

Win + 3pts

Samoa/Namibia RWC - Namibia +33

2pts @ Evens (Bet365)

Lost

In hindsight I shouldn't have taken on the Namibian bet. You'll see that I was mulling over the bet for a couple of days and in the end only staked a small amount. Thought the line at 33 was enough but Samoa were just too good for them punishing schoolboy errors to win by 37.

Felt really good about Georgia hence the largish stake (roughly 9% of bank) and it came through, must admit that I'm slightly disappointed that they couldn't sneak a win. At the odds they were at they were great value though and I'd have been mad not to have a small stake.

Canadians came through well, they're a solid side enough side for non six/tri nations teams. In the end they won outright by 5 beating the handicap pretty easy.

Total Staked: 69.32 pts Returned: 94.65pts
Running Bank: 102pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Russia/USA RWC - Russia +9pts

Russia will play their first game of the World Cup against a U.S side who will be tired after their efforts against the Irish. Tonga and Namibia games have shown that it's difficult to overcome a short turnround. I like the line at 9 points and think Russia should have just enough to beat it. Think the US will win outright but not by more than a score.

4pts @ Evens (Will Hill)

Running Bank: 98pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Russia/USA RWC - Russia +9pts

4pts @ Evens (Will Hill)

Win

Total Staked: 73.32 pts Returned: 102.65pts

Running Bank: 106pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

South Africa - Fiji RWC - Fiji +22

think this could be a two score game depending on how it plays out.

6pts @ Evens (PP)

Running Bank: 100pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Samoa/Wales RWC - Samoa +9

Pisi the Samoan 10 has been named in the starting 15 for the game. This is going to be a great game to watch. Sorry for the short reasoning as to why I'm picking, getting distracted at the moment.

5pts @ Evens (Bet 365)

Running Bank: 95pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Argentina/Romania RWC - Romania +22

2.32pts @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Lost

LightningBolt wrote: »

South Africa - Fiji RWC - Fiji +22
.
6pts @ Evens (PP)

Lost

Samoa/Wales RWC - Samoa +9

5pts @ Evens (Bet 365)

Win

Couldn't have been more wrong on the Fiji and Romania bets. Ah well.

Total Staked: 86.64 pts Returned: 112.65pts

Running Bank: 105pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

NFL Bets

Ravens -5.5
Falcons +2.5
Saints -6.5

2 pt singles and 1 pt treble with PP. Singles @10/11 Treble @7/1

Running Bank: 98pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

RWC Winner - France

1.51pts @ 14/1 (Boyles)

Running Bank: 67pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

Lost

Unfortunately I was away for pretty much the last five weeks or so in South America meaning I had feck all internet. The places I got to use internet were pretty dodgy so wasn't comfortable using betting logins. Had I have been I'd have laid this one off for a nice little profit.

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

NFL Bets

Ravens -5.5 Lost
Falcons +2.5 Won +3.82
Saints -6.5 Won +3.82

2 pt singles and 1 pt treble with PP. Singles @10/11 Treble @7/1

Total Staked: 93.64 pts Returned: 120.29pts

Running Bank: 105.64pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Saints -3 @ 5/6 PP
49ers - 4 @ 10/11 PP

5 points on each