LightningBolt's NFL, Soccer and Rugby Picks

LightningBolt

Going to keep a blog off picks I have for the coming season. Log closes after the Champions League final in May.

For soccer bets I'll look to primarily bet on unders/overs on goals along with outright wins and handicaps.

In rugby I'll be betting on handicaps and total points unders/overs.

When it comes to NFL I tend to bet on QuarterBack rushing yards, running back rushing yards and the odd bet on total points unders/overs.

I'll be going ante post in the next while on a couple of bets also.

Starting bank will be 100pts just so it's easy to keep a track of how I do.

Ante Post Selection

Rugby: 5pts on Ulster to win the RaboDirect League @10/1

(Boyles)

Match Selection

Spanish U-19s -1 to beat Irish U-19s

2pts @ 10/11 Powers

Man City/Airtricity XI over 3.5 goals

2 pts @ 6/4 Powers


Running Bank: 91 pts
Ante Post Bank: 5 pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Match Selection

Spanish U-19s -1 to beat Irish U-19s

2pts @ 10/11 Powers

Win.

Staked 2 pts Return 3.82 pts

Running Bank: 94.82 pts
Ante Post Bank: 5 pts

LightningBolt

Man City HT/FT

3pts @ 4/6 (Bet 365)

With the players City are bringing over I think they should be able to grab at least a goal in the first half. I've backed over 3.5 goals in this game too. I don't think it's going to be quite the drubbing many people are backing though I wouldn't be surprised to see it City score four or five with the Airtricity League scoring too.

All Blacks -20 versus South Africa

South Africa travel to Wellington with a squad that's not exactly up to test standard. They got beat well by Australia in their last game although Australia took their foot off the gas in the final 20, the scoreline could and should have been bigger. I don't expect New Zealand to do the same, they'll dominate in every area in this game. Their line out options of Williams, Whitelock, Kaino and McCaw will guarantee them unrivalled possesion and a good chance to disrupt South Africa's, at scrum time I expect the New Zealand scrum to stamp it's authority if the Super 15 games are anything to go by. I won't go on too much about the backline but Carter will get New Zealand moving with Nonu and Smith in centres supported by a dangerous back three of Guilford, Jane and Muliaina. I've thought about taking -17.5 @8/13 but feel New Zealand should be good for a three score win. Weather in Wellington is expected to be dry and cool.

3pt @evens (Bet365)


Running Bank: 88.82 pts
Ante Post Bank: 5 pts

UrbanSea

Nice start.

LightningBolt

UrbanSea wrote: »

Nice start.

Thanks man. Let's hope I can call a few more!

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

All Blacks -20 versus South Africa

3pt @evens (Bet365)

Win +3pts

All Blacks as predicted were simply far too strong for a second string South African side comfortably beating the handicap by 13 points.

Total Staked: 5 pts Returned: 9.82pts
Running Bank: 94.82 pts
Ante Post Bank: 5 pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Man City/Airtricity XI over 3.5 goals

2 pts @ 6/4 Powers

Lost 2pts

LightningBolt wrote: »

Man City HT/FT

3pts @ 4/6 (Bet 365)

Lost 3pts

Needless to say I've learnt a lesson. Don't back the favourite in a 2 day tournament when they're playing a game against far better opposition the following day! Joke of a side City put out but my fault for staking before seeing the line-ups.

Total Staked: 10 pts Returned: 9.82pts
Running Bank: 94.82 pts
Ante Post Bank: 5 pts

LightningBolt

Pats +1 versus Karpaty in the Europa League on Thursday.

Karpaty delayed in Ukraine, only arrived last couple of hours. Game is over in their minds, draw does them fine. Pat's haven't had a smooth build up but I firmly believe the players are being pushed into this public dispute by PFAI.

We're not playing in Richmond though so we lose that advantage we get from playing on a small pitch. Karpaty technically superior but as I've said poor preparation pre game and the fact they've won makes me view the +1 favourably.

4pts @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Running Bank: 90.82pts
Ante Post bank: 5pts

mooonpie

That Pats game ain't looking too good at the moment

Pat's players drop Europa bombshell (rte.ie)

The statement read: "Following receipt of a fax from the owners of St Patrick's Athletic Football Club early this morning, we have considered its contents carefully.

"The faxed offer is the same offer that we rejected last night in our meeting with the club. Having discussed it at length, we are unanimous that the offer does not meet our minimum requirements.

"The club will receive many multiples of the amounts we are seeking in prize money so payment to us would still leave the club in profit following our European campaign.

"However, we have made it very clear to the board that our very modest requests would have to be agreed prior to tonight's match; this issue has been ongoing for the past month.

"It is, therefore, with huge regret that we must inform you that we will not be participating in the fixture this evening. This is a unanimous decision of all the players and has not been reached lightly.

"We realise this is a devastating blow for the fans and the league. It is equally so for us as players but we cannot continue to be treated with disrespect by the club."

Never mind, seems to be all sorted

St Pat's players agree to play European clash (rte.ie)

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Pats +1 versus Karpaty in the Europa League on Thursday.

Karpaty delayed in Ukraine, only arrived last couple of hours. Game is over in their minds, draw does them fine. Pat's haven't had a smooth build up but I firmly believe the players are being pushed into this public dispute by PFAI.

We're not playing in Richmond though so we lose that advantage we get from playing on a small pitch. Karpaty technically superior but as I've said poor preparation pre game and the fact they've won makes me view the +1 favourably.

4pts @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Running Bank: 90.82pts
Ante Post bank: 5pts

LOSE

Pats were never at the races. Big pitch favoured them and they were never in trouble. Wouldn't have placed this had I known the players said they wouldn't play at one stage.

Anyway.

Ireland v Scotland - Scotland to win by 1-12pts

Average Irish side travel to Scotland for a world cup warm up game. Scottish team reasonably strong.

3.82 pts @ 7/4


Total Staked: 14 pts Returned: 9.82pts
Running Bank: 83pts
Ante Post bank: 5pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Ireland v Scotland - Scotland to win by 1-12pts

Average Irish side travel to Scotland for a world cup warm up game. Scottish team reasonably strong.

3.82 pts @ 7/4

Win +6.69 pts

That was a close one, Scotland scored thanks to a great try worked from a lineout on the Irish 40 all the way across to the opposite side for Ansboro to break free and get the winning score to push them four points ahead with two minutes to play.

Total Staked: 17.82 pts Returned: 20.33pts
Running Bank: 93.51pts
Ante Post bank: 5pts

LightningBolt

Time for another couple of ante post bets:

Ulster to win the RaboDirect Pro12 League

I think Ulster are priced very poorly by the bookmakers for the season ahead. Ulster will retain a large selection of their starting squad for the opening league fixtures in the league. They'll be pretty strong compared to most other sides when you consider that the Welsh, Italian and Scottish sides will be badly hit with key players lost to the World Cup. Irish squad should include the likes of Ferris, Court, Wallace, Trimble and Best from Ulster but I genuinely can't see any of their rising young stars in the extended Irish squad making the plane to New Zealand.

They've also unfortunately been drawn in an incredibly tough Heineken Cup group and I see very little chance of them getting through meaning they won't have to worry about keeping players fresh in late March/April.

The six nations will also mean the further weakening of teams in the league meaning that Ulster will again be in my mind stronger for February/early March league games allowing them to distance themselves from the pack. I'm going to go for the outright win here. Thought about each way but I really like this bet hence me putting 10pts on it, may lay a bit of toward the end of the season depending on team form and injuries but sure we'll see.

10pts @10/1 (Boylesports)


Ray Rice - Most Rushing Yards @ 20/1

This is a bet I've been doing a bit of mulling over. I had picked out Rice but wasn't too sure if I should go for the outright win or just take him each way. Thanks to Tom_Brady and his write up here I've decided to go out and back him to be the leagues top rusher. His analysis is pretty much on the money and I've nothing to add/disagree with.

5pts @20/1 (Bet365)

Running Bank: 78.51pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

I won't get much chance to do many ante posts before September due to exams so any bets I'll place the next while will tend to be rugby related as opposed to soccer or NFL.

France v Ireland - France (-11)

This is a very strong French team being put out. They've got a nice solid look to them and most of the combo's that they have starting bar our back three will not be up to the test. If this were a regular season game the line would be bigger in my mind.

Playing in the south of France, the heart of French rugby will see a big French performance. I've even thought about spread betting on this one but instead will stick 5pts down on the French to do our boys in.


5pts @ evens (VC)

Running Bank: 73.51pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

France v Ireland - France (-11)

5pts @ evens (VC)

Running Bank: 73.51pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

Lost

Have to say, at half time this bet was well on. French dominated up until that point. They were pretty impressive at times. Second half we somehow came back into it and O'Gara managed to keep us close kicking points. French were a different side when they came back out. Error strewn and no real cohesion in their play.

Total Staked: 22.82 pts Returned: 20.33pts
Running Bank: 73.51pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Just realised I've staked on Ulster twice... Oh well.

LightningBolt

USA/Ire RWC - HT Result USA +17

Quite fancy the USA to come out all guns blazing for the first half given the day that's in it. Eddie O'Sullivan will have watched our warm up games with interest and should have a gameplan to frustrate us in the opening 50 minutes or so. Weather is not looking great at the moment which plays into the USAs hands and we've had trouble scoring tries too during our build up. The spread was 18points but I missed out on that unfortunately.

6pts @5/6 (Boyles)

Running Bank: 68.51pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

RWC Winner - France

1.51pts @ 14/1 (Boyles)

Running Bank: 67pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Jap/Fra RWC - Jap +43

3.5pts @ evens (Boyles)

Running Bank: 63.5pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Arg/Eng RWC - Arg +14

3.5pts @ evens (Bet365)

Running Bank: 60pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Jap/Fra RWC - Jap +43

3.5pts @ evens (Boyles)

Running Bank: 63.5pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

Win

Total Staked: 26.32 pts Returned: 27.33pts
Running Bank: 70.5pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Arg/Eng RWC - Arg +14

3.5pts @ evens (Bet365)

Win

Total Staked: 29.82 pts Returned: 34.33pts
Running Bank: 77.5pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Aus/Ita RWC - Aus -28

Can't see Italy showing up to this game. They have two games they'll look to win following this to build up some momentum before they play us (Ireland) in the last game. The Aussies will look to lay a marker down in my opinion seeing as they have an easy game following this and then the group decider against us. Aussies to beat the spread by a couple of points (Other bookies have priced the spread at 30, personally wouldn't touch that spread).

5pts @ evens (Boyles)

Running Bank: 72.5pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Colts/Texans NFL - Texans (-8.5)

Colts have been dealt a huge blow with Manning out for at least 12 weeks. They've got a poor quarter back in Kerry Collins who will struggle to move the offence like Manning has year on year. The Colts game is based on Manning being able to read defences and make adjustments to plays as he goes along, Collins just can't do that. Additionally, their defence isn't the greatest either - their job has always been to keep the score close enough so that Manning could win the game. They come up against a Texans team who have one of the best rushers in the league in Arian Foster although he's lost his blocker to the Ravens so it will be interesting to see how he gets on. In Matt Schaub Texans have a qb who can easily throw 300+ and 3tds a game. They've improved on defense too and should limit Indy to fieldgoals. Think Texans could win this by about 14-17.

7.5pts @ 10/11 (Boyles)

Running Bank: 65pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

UrbanSea

Good start with the rugby

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

USA/Ire RWC - HT Result USA +17

6pts @5/6 (Boyles)

Win

Total Staked: 35.82 pts Returned: 45.33pts
Running Bank: 77.5pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Aus/Ita RWC - Aus -28

5pts @ evens (Boyles)

Lost

Bit annoyed at this one, Italians made it hard the first half for Australia who I reckoned would have gone in with a 8-10pt lead. Turns out it was level and the Aussies pulled away in the second half as I thought they would. They won by 26 in the end but unfortunately wasn't enough.

Total Staked: 40.82 pts Returned: 45.33pts
Running Bank: 76pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

South Africa/Wales RWC - Wales + 13

Wales strong enough outside of ten. Only fear is that South Africa can boss the Welsh around up front. Think South Africa should win by 8-11 by the end.

4pts @ Evens (Bet365)

Running Bank: 72pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

South Africa/Wales RWC - Wales + 13

Wales strong enough outside of ten. Only fear is that South Africa can boss the Welsh around up front. Think South Africa should win by 8-11 by the end.

4pts @ Evens (Bet365)

Win

Total Staked: 44.82 pts Returned: 53.33pts
Running Bank: 80pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

Georgia/Scotland RWC - Georgia +22

Scotland aren't great in my mind. Decent set of forward who love to slug it out. Backs aren't up to much. They'll come up against a Georgia team playing their first game and looking to cause an upset. They've got a bruising pack who'll look to wear the Scottish down. Cheeky one point bet on them to win too. If there's an upset this World Cup this is the game.

11pts @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

Georgia to win outright 10/1 (Paddy Power)

Running Bank: 68pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

LightningBolt

LightningBolt wrote: »

Colts/Texans NFL - Texans (-8.5)

7.5pts @ 10/11 (Boyles)

Win

The game was over at half time. Texans ran up 34 pts by half time and completely took the foot off the gas in the second half. Wish I had the taken the Texans on sporting index. Would have made a serious profit. Ah well!

Total Staked: 52.32 pts Returned: 67.65pts
Running Bank: 82.32pts
Ante Post bank: 20pts

rodeo1985

hey lightningbolt, what do you think of tonga -6 v canada on wednesday? would have thought it was a decent bet considering the performance they put in v NZ...