Predictions, Predictions

Yillan

Last year the cutoffs were available from the CAO website from 2am on the 5th of August which was a Thursday.

If you want to keep refreshing a page, let me recommend this one:
http://www.cao.ie/index.php?page=points&p=2011

jtsuited

and what date did they say they were going to release them last year?

ULbound

Yillan wrote: »

Last year the cutoffs were available from the CAO website from 2am on the 5th of August which was a Thursday.

If you want to keep refreshing a page, let me recommend this one:
http://www.cao.ie/index.php?page=points&p=2011

cheers wouldnt have thought about that page (think this waitin game is makin me stupid!)

Yillan

Here is Tazzle talking about how he found the cut off points:

Tazzle wrote: »

Same as others, I just changed the link from last year to 2010. It was actually up yesterday.

So last year the cutoffs were available on the Wednesday. I wonder what time. Exciting and terrifying in equal measure. Well maybe 1:2

Yillan

jtsuited wrote: »

and what date did they say they were going to release them last year?

There was no suggestion that the offers or cut offs would be released before Thursday morning.

jtsuited

ah ok, well feck that then. off to bed.

hurdygurdy85

Anyone else getting ridiculously nervous as time goes by? :eek:

jtsuited

yup. at least tomorrow, the most painful waiting game I've ever experienced might be over (although perhaps only for a while).

Yillan

My dream last night about RCSI jumping to 69 and UCD to 64 was not fun. I reckon they'll publish that cut-off page just as the office closes this evening at 5pm. I've been revising my predictions upwards. Some bargaining too.

I only have to hope that the spike in cut-offs from more people doing the exam in the UK has levelled off by now.

hurdygurdy85

You gonna take whatever comes up jt? Im so sick of it now id study medicine in a cardboard box if necessary..... location is handy but not the be all and end all....

jtsuited

yup taking wherever I get, whether that be UCD or UCC. Don't feel like hanging around for a year. Gettin too old.

hurdygurdy85

I really really hope it's not gonna be a 61* score situation. Can't handle anymore uncertainty......

heybert

Yillan wrote: »

Last year the cutoffs were available from the CAO website from 2am on the 5th of August which was a Thursday.

If you want to keep refreshing a page, let me recommend this one:
http://www.cao.ie/index.php?page=points&p=2011

Not to confuse things, but looking back at the thread from last year I think that the above page (for 2010) was not updated until 6am however the pdf file itself was available from 1am if you linked directly to it. Therefore the link may be:

http://www2.cao.ie/points/GraduateMedicine2011-Round-0.pdf

At the moment it says that the file doesn't exist but hopefully that will change later tonight.

Best of luck all!

heybert

hurdygurdy85 wrote: »

I really really hope it's not gonna be a 61* score situation. Can't handle anymore uncertainty......

The dreaded *.

I'm in south east asia and hoping to god that I get a solid answer one way or another tomorrow!

frigate gumption

i reckon, for round 0

UCD....61
RCSI...63
UCC....60
UL......58

Question- when people are talking about the UK gamsat candidates pushing the cutoff scores up, are they taking into account the fact that all these applicants, UK and elsewhere, have to come through the CAO and are included in the figure of 670, the total number of candidates, irish and international, who are on the cao's books now waiting to hear tomorrow?
Or is that those UK candidates waiting to get their offers could have higher scores than the irish contingent, having a different percentile chart than the one we irish got?

imported_guy

frigate gumption wrote: »

i reckon, for round 0

UCD....61
RCSI...63
UCC....60
UL......58

Question- when people are talking about the UK gamsat candidates pushing the cutoff scores up, are they taking into account the fact that all these applicants, UK and elsewhere, have to come through the CAO and are included in the figure of 670, the total number of candidates, irish and international, who are on the cao's books now waiting to hear tomorrow?
Or is that those UK candidates waiting to get their offers could have higher scores than the irish contingent, having a different percentile chart than the one we irish got?

well the UK have a different percentile chart but are included in the figure that the CAO usually quotes (670 or otherwise...)

but the thing is most people with less than say... 56 dont even bother applying to CAO so sometimes thats the reason why you dont see points go down far enough (and yes that would mean not ALL spaces in universities are filled), and usually rounds 3,4,5 etc etc arent even posted online, as someone said someone with a 54 got in last year, for all we know there could be someone with 53, 52 etc etc, actually there are people in australia studying with those kinds of scores, mainly because they make themselves competitive by having a higher GPA than the average students etc.

Wilhelmet

frigate gumption wrote: »

i reckon, for round 0

UCD....61
RCSI...63
UCC....60
UL......58

Question- when people are talking about the UK gamsat candidates pushing the cutoff scores up, are they taking into account the fact that all these applicants, UK and elsewhere, have to come through the CAO and are included in the figure of 670, the total number of candidates, irish and international, who are on the cao's books now waiting to hear tomorrow?
Or is that those UK candidates waiting to get their offers could have higher scores than the irish contingent, having a different percentile chart than the one we irish got?

It's hard to know exactly. The main point people seem to make when they mention people with UK/previous scores (to 2011), is that their scores are not included in the percentile curve for the 2011 Irish Gamsat. Ie: If their/previous scores weren't included in the 670 applicants for this year, and the 2011 Irish percentile curve was a complete representation of all those applying to Irish GEMs this year, you could make a pretty accurate cut-off score prediction. But even that would be assuming that everyone above a certain score accepted their place.....which doesn't really happen, as a lot of people don't get where they wanted, and decide to re-take, therefore lowering the cut-off.

So, the number of scores that are being used, outside of the 2011 curve, is never fully known. But it's pointless to even try predict, as there were probably just as many people who took the 2011 gamsat (who are therefore included in the 2011 curve) who are not going to be using it for this cycle also (like those who are using their scores from a precious date), meaning it's an endless cycle....that fluctuates, but probably pretty much negates its own effect.

Sorry, hope that wasn't too long-winded?! From my own amateur viewpoint, I think this year's situation is about as good as anyone could hope for. Applicant numbers are down by almost 100 from 760, that's more than a 10% drop. Place numbers have increased....20 more in UCD, 25 more in UL, and apparently an extra 20 in UCC I saw on another forum (can anyone confirm this)? When taking the drop in applicants and increase in places, those are significant number changes from last year no matter what way you look at it.

So based on that, my predictions for Round 0 are:

RCSI : 62*
UCD : 59*
UCC : 59
UL : 56


Purely guesswork I'm afraid, but guess we'll find out soon enough. Good luck all.

frigate gumption

imported_guy wrote: »

well the UK have a different percentile chart but are included in the figure that the CAO usually quotes (670 or otherwise...)

but the thing is most people with less than say... 56 dont even bother applying to CAO so sometimes thats the reason why you dont see points go down far enough (and yes that would mean not ALL spaces in universities are filled), and usually rounds 3,4,5 etc etc arent even posted online, as someone said someone with a 54 got in last year, for all we know there could be someone with 53, 52 etc etc, actually there are people in australia studying with those kinds of scores, mainly because they make themselves competitive by having a higher GPA than the average students etc.

The majority of candidates apply through CAO before they know their gamsat scores so I can't see how that affects anything. I just don't understand why people are talking about a 'spike' in the cutoffs because of UK applicants to ireland. We know exactly how many candidates we are competing with for places and the fact that some of them are from the UK doesn't mean that there will be any noticeable impact on the irish cutoffs. unless, again, I'm missing something.

Edit:

Wilhelmet wrote: »

It's hard to know exactly. The main point people seem to make when they mention people with UK/previous scores (to 2011), is that their scores are not included in the percentile curve for the 2011 Irish Gamsat. Ie: If their/previous scores weren't included in the 670 applicants for this year, and the 2011 Irish percentile curve was a complete representation of all those applying to Irish GEMs this year, you could make a pretty accurate cut-off score prediction. But even that would be assuming that everyone above a certain score accepted their place.....which doesn't really happen, as a lot of people don't get where they wanted, and decide to re-take, therefore lowering the cut-off.

got it. nice one doc. yeah i don't think those outliers make much of a difference to the scores. i mean.. there's no evidence but it is scientific fact.

imported_guy

frigate gumption wrote: »

The majority of candidates apply through CAO before they know their gamsat scores so I can't see how that affects anything.

not true i'm saving my score for next year from last year's UK gamsat lol, i'm sure there are plenty others like me, the score is valid for two years, only the people who took the gamsat this year in march wont know when applying everyone else will.

frigate gumption

fffuuckk i am so buzzed

imported_guy

frigate gumption wrote: »

fffuuckk i am so buzzed

I might use my statistics skills from my degree later on which i've never done before with regards to GAMSAT, using some wild assumptions but unless CAO release more data we cant really do anything... even if they just tell us the % of people using previous scores will be enough.... I've a feeling that amounts to a higher number than people are expecting... I've just always had a feeling that everyone who applies to UCAS or CAO believes they have a competitive score, otherwise they dont bother (i.e. 56+) but you're right there is the odd one who doesnt know their score is competitive and applied before they even know their score

then there are those final year students who apply to CAO, find out they got a score of 55 and then they dont bother sending in their transcripts in june/july w/e so their application is automatically void.

but good luck! hope you have a competitive score, you'll get on fine dont worry too much on the last day

frigate gumption

imported_guy wrote: »

I might use my statistics skills from my degree later on which i've never done before with regards to GAMSAT, using some wild assumptions but unless CAO release more data we cant really do anything... )

Keep those skills holstered partner.

:pac:

Wilhelmet

imported_guy wrote: »

I might use my statistics skills from my degree later on which i've never done before with regards to GAMSAT, using some wild assumptions but unless CAO release more data we cant really do anything... even if they just tell us the % of people using previous scores will be enough.... I've a feeling that amounts to a higher number than people are expecting... I've just always had a feeling that everyone who applies to UCAS or CAO believes they have a competitive score, otherwise they dont bother (i.e. 56+) but you're right there is the odd one who doesnt know their score is competitive and applied before they even know their score

then there are those final year students who apply to CAO, find out they got a score of 55 and then they dont bother sending in their transcripts in june/july w/e so their application is automatically void.

but good luck! hope you have a competitive score, you'll get on fine dont worry too much on the last day

True, it all depends. But just to add my (hopefully last!) 2 cents, if you aren't currently finishing your uni degree the same year as entering med, you need to have already applied to CAO and handed in all your documents before you find out your gamsat score. A huge number of people who apply to med will be in such a situation (ie, have already applied to CAO and supplied all the documentation and completed their applications, before finding out their gamsat score), meaning that no matter what score they got, they will be still be included in the final applicant number of 670 or what have you. It's only those that are finishing their degree's this very year that won't have completed their applications before finding out their gamsat scores.

Hope that makes sense. My point was, as always.....it's just a big burry blob of a number, with most not really knowing how they did in gamsat before having completed their applications.....therefore the 670 number is just as likely to still have lower scores included as higher scores.

Ugh. Apologies for rambling again....

Best of luck all (again!)

BonzoBonzo

imported_guy wrote: »

I might use my statistics skills from my degree later on which i've never done before with regards to GAMSAT, using some wild assumptions but unless CAO release more data we cant really do anything... even if they just tell us the % of people using previous scores will be enough.... I've a feeling that amounts to a higher number than people are expecting... I've just always had a feeling that everyone who applies to UCAS or CAO believes they have a competitive score, otherwise they dont bother (i.e. 56+) but you're right there is the odd one who doesnt know their score is competitive and applied before they even know their score

Easy pilgrim.

ULbound

okay just over 11 hours left. gettin very anxious now. debatin about goin to the cinema to pass some time but dont know if ill even be able to concentrate on the film!

spagboll

best of luck to all of you

win or lose your willing to but the effort in to get this far, which is something in itself

Yillan

I'm very excited. Going for a pint and a bit of food in a while. Then back for some mindnumbing gaming. All the while autorefreshing both this forum and the pdf (currently 404) page. How will everyone else be spending the next 10 hours?

drspock

A bit of mindnumbing gaming is always good haha! About 18hrs straight of black ops always takes the edge off of any major changes haha. On a serious note best of luck everybody wishing you all the best

Yillan wrote: »

I'm very excited. Going for a pint and a bit of food in a while. Then back for some mindnumbing gaming. All the while autorefreshing both this forum and the pdf (currently 404) page. How will everyone else be spending the next 10 hours?

drspock

Sorry I'm confused, what did that prank have to do with me and my state of mind? Maybe you're mixing me up with someone else mate? Think I'm the only guy on here with 65 going for UCC?

Yillan wrote: »

I'm very excited. Going for a pint and a bit of food in a while. Then back for some mindnumbing gaming. All the while autorefreshing both this forum and the pdf (currently 404) page. How will everyone else be spending the next 10 hours?

"It wasn't the cleverest joke in fairness, but I was hoping it would drop out of the first page rather than get more attention.

A guy on 65 going for UCC isn't quite in the same frame of mind as those on lesser results and hoping for Dublin"

Yillan

drspock wrote: »

Sorry I'm confused, what did that prank have to do with me and my state of mind? Maybe you're mixing me up with someone else mate? Think I'm the only guy on here with 65 going for UCC?

Yeah I am mixing you up mate... It's the orange avatars. My humblest of apologies.

Now for that pint