Winter 2011/2012

pistolpetes11 · 01-12-2011 4:54pm

Still looks to be heading negative

mcriot29 · 01-12-2011 5:09pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Still looks to be heading negative

It far from neg record highs at the moment

pistolpetes11 · 01-12-2011 5:15pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

It far from neg record highs at the moment

Is it not forecasting to head negative ??? , didnt say it was negative

mcriot29 · 01-12-2011 5:28pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

It far from neg record highs at the moment

Is it not forecasting to head negative ??? , didnt say it was negative

Where 14 days out it around plus 3 it not neg at all ?
But iv been looking around the way it is now is very like dec 1984
In jan 85 ireland and uk had lots of snow
Basterdi has just said about dec 85 and now on his twitter too i think we could see a flip to a neg nao and ao soon
Vogans forecast seems to be on track

WolfeIRE · 01-12-2011 5:29pm

Here is what Bastardi said on Twitter:
l to r,top to bottom:day16 GFS(ridge nrn siberia) then 10 day increments dec 10,84 to jan 30,85 ( Reagin outbreak)

pistolpetes11 · 01-12-2011 5:34pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

Where 14 days out it around plus 3 it not neg at all ?
But iv been looking around the way it is now is very like dec 1984
In jan 85 ireland and uk had lots of snow
Basterdi has just said about dec 85 and now on his twitter too i think we could see a flip to a neg nao and ao soon
Vogans forecast seems to be on track

I should of said it was trending in a lower direction than heading negative , my bad ,

The trend is there for a flip I hope it happens .

WolfeIRE · 01-12-2011 5:57pm

I feel better now knowing the alps also are snowless!

The normal storm of skiers who hit the French Alps are delayed this winter, as the region faces its highest temperatures in 50 years.
In Chamrousse, a tourist destination in south-eastern France, there was still no snow on slopes on Wednesday (November 30), though they had been covered by the beginning of December in past years

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=no_snow_no_ski_warmest_wea_011211?ref=ccbox_homepage_category2

mcriot29 · 01-12-2011 6:44pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Where 14 days out it around plus 3 it not neg at all ?
But iv been looking around the way it is now is very like dec 1984
In jan 85 ireland and uk had lots of snow
Basterdi has just said about dec 85 and now on his twitter too i think we could see a flip to a neg nao and ao soon
Vogans forecast seems to be on track

I should of said it was trending in a lower direction than heading negative , my bad ,

The trend is there for a flip I hope it happens .

We need it to flip so its down at least -2 for the cold air to move south i hope - 4 like last dec

h57xiucj2z946q · 01-12-2011 7:33pm

Freezing fog or something in athlone. Just got outside and car frosted over and very foggy outside.

h57xiucj2z946q · 01-12-2011 7:37pm

But its only about 2 degrees, so how is that possible?

DOCARCH · 01-12-2011 7:44pm

Eugene Scary Meteorite wrote: »

But its only about 2 degrees, so how is that possible?

Radiation my friend.

Surfaces (especially cars) can be at a lower temperature than the air due to radiation.

Su Campu · 01-12-2011 7:47pm

Casement was reporting frost on horizontal surfaces at 6 p.m. Temperatures at both Casement and Dublin Airport were 1.6 C, and both had a max today of 6.1 C.

mcriot29 · 01-12-2011 7:52pm

looks like some cold days ahead for next 2 weeks shows really how much cold there is up at pole to be getting any sort of cold with a ao index so high shows if it went neg we would see worse cold then last year

maw368 · 01-12-2011 8:14pm

I dont know much about weather but I do love cold and snow. being an outdoors man it is my favourite time of year. I check Piers Corbyns website often as he seems to be better that the Met. He was predicting exceptional cold for December but he has admitted an issue with his initial forecast due a change to a Stratospheric Circulation rathet than Lunar. I appreciate his effort but my problem is I have no idea what that means and what to expect for December as a result. Can anyone tell me what this means and what Piers new update is expecting.

I think it is a possibility of warming in the stratosphere that could cause the northern blocking that we need for cold??

pistolpetes11 · 01-12-2011 8:29pm

maw368 wrote: »

I dont know much about weather but I do love cold and snow. being an outdoors man it is my favourite time of year. I check Piers Corbyns website often as he seems to be better that the Met. He was predicting exceptional cold for December but he has admitted an issue with his initial forecast due a change to a Stratospheric Circulation rathet than Lunar. I appreciate his effort but my problem is I have no idea what that means and what to expect for December as a result. Can anyone tell me what this means and what Piers new update is expecting.

I think it is a possibility of warming in the stratosphere that could cause the northern blocking that we need for cold??

Firstly Piers is not held in great esteem around these parts , he is a constant goal post mover and when ever something slighty comes off that he has forecasted he screams it from the roof tops , personally I think he is a chancer , You will find a lot better info in here , Listening to the likes of

Nacho,Maq,Su Campu,MT Cranium,Musicman,Mcriot,Deep Easterly,Beasterly,Kipure,Wolfe

I am prob missing a few of the good ones there , but not only are they good on the charts and how they read , they post up and discuss opinions on Long Range forecasters and there blogs.

Its so cold up North at the moment that some of it is already starting to leak down , We do need Stratosphere warming and a negative AO for Northern blocking,

Even if the Ao turns negative fairly lively there is about a 2 week lag for its effects to take hold .

Keep an eye on this forum and you wont go to far wrong ,

Enjoy the ups and downs of every Chart/Model run !

Kippure · 01-12-2011 8:38pm

James Madden Update

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

1st December 2011

As we officially begin the meteorological winter today, I thought it would be a good opportunity to review the colourful headlines that have been floating around in the media over the past few months.

1.Many of you have sent this one to my inbox and asked for my opinion. No new Big Freeze, says Met Office (24th November 2011)

These headlines bear no relation to the kind of weather that I am currently expecting, as I will explain below.

2.Another headline that probably caught most peoples attention

The headline read: BRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE, SNOW ON THE WAY NEXT MONTH SAY FORECASTERS (20th September 2011)

The quote used from the Exacta Weather website within the article said: “I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in CERTAIN parts of the UK.”

As I explained in the update on the 30th October 2011 below, we did see some moderate to heavy snow in CERTAIN parts of the UK in October (Scotland and Northern Ireland – see pics below). It is certainly not unusual to see heavy snow in the Cairngorms in October, and this is why I included this within my autumn forecast. It is however unusual to see snow in Northern Ireland in October, as they recorded their earliest snowfall in nearly 50 years.

No mention of WIDESPREAD heavy snow in October. (Please feel free to check any of my forecasts that are freely available within the archives section of Exacta Weather)

3.Another headline that also probably caught peoples attention

The headline read: Big Siberian Freeze to hit Britain, it will be here in weeks (2nd November 2011)

The quote used from the Exacta Weather website within the article said: James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned the theme of this winter would be “very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK”. He said there would be “frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures”.

No mention of SIBERIAN temperatures in weeks. (Please feel free to check any of my forecasts that are freely available to view within the archives section of Exacta Weather).

Although we have not experienced the below-average temperatures and the snowfall has not been extensively widespread for November, I did explain in a prompt update on the 8th November 2011 that there was a delay in some of these pattern changes, until the final third of November and much of December. My long term forecast for the winter in meteorological terms runs from 1st December 2011 until the last day of February 2012, just as my correct summer forecast run from the 1st June until the last day of August 2011, as this is the meteorological summer. (Both summer and winter forecasts were issued at the same time by myself earlier this year).

December

The recent newspaper headlines bear no relation to the kind of weather that I am currently expecting this winter, although it is important to remember that last December was the coldest in 100 years and one of the coldest months ever recorded in the UK. As in my last update on the 24th November, I fully expect December as a whole to feature below-average temperatures, with some widespread and deep snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. As in many of my updates since earlier this year, the regions I expect to be worst hit throughout this winter and December are many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland. This does not mean that the south will not see any snowfall, as I have stated that I do expect widespread and heavy snowfalls across many parts of the UK at times throughout this winter, which does include December. I have also stated that there will also be some periods of moderation at times, and any areas further south are most likely to see the best of these conditions.

This Weekend/Next Week

Many parts of Scotland will see snow become more heavy and widespread as we progress into this weekend and next week. Parts of Northern England and Ireland are also likely to experience some moderate to heavy snow showers as we head into the latter part of the weekend and next week, with the increasing possibility of some snow to other parts of the country too.

Here is what I originally forecast on the 8th November 2011

“This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK”

Here is what I originally forecast on the 24th November 2011

“Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December”

Any further updates will be posted accordingly, along with my outlook for January at a later date.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 1st December 2011 (17:29) GMT
Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

TheMilkyPirate · 01-12-2011 8:58pm

^^ "This is what i said, but this is what i really meant..."

"It will snow in some parts.. it will snow in scotland and northern areas." My 2 year old son could give that forecast. I know it's hard but come on.

Su Campu · 01-12-2011 9:33pm

It's pretty clear now that the likes of Exacta and PWS are not actually weather agencies, but are in reality media companies, releasing content that will always appeal to the masses and hence generate revenue. Also like the media, they will shift and shimmy this content as required in an attempt to save face and maintain that following. Weather is purely a topic they have chosen because it is enormously popular and hence profitable.

For example, when it comes to winter forecasts, despite all the signs to the contrary, they will always focus on trying to get the big COLD AND SNOW headline across, using cleverly choreographed language that can later be used to either prove or disprove whatever it is they said/meant, such as shown above. The problem is, the fact that they got this period wrong will soon be forgotten when the snow does come, and they will claim that somewhere in their forecast, they had forecasted it down to a tee.....and people WILL believe them!

So I'm going to start up a media comp....weather forecasting service, and I urge you to buy my One Size Fits All Weather Outcomes forecasts, not because you need it, but because you're afraid that if you don't, you'll find yourself ill-prepared for that Siberian blast just around the corner......that HUUUUGE corner that you can never get around!

Roll up, roll up.....take out your wallets.....

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS1nebb_Lm2lcIknSsMMHL1OLGJJ-6edFCGz3ronczSszCn1Z6V1Q

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS1nebb_Lm2lcIknSsMMHL1OLGJJ-6edFCGz3ronczSszCn1Z6V1Q

blackius · 01-12-2011 9:41pm

Do you give discounts for prepaid mastercard

mcriot29 · 01-12-2011 10:12pm

Below is a link to what a plus AO and NAO can cause this is what caused the winter of 84-85 to be cold in ireland and uk could it happen again
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1985_Arctic_outbreak

tzfrantic · 01-12-2011 11:45pm

of coarse anything is possible what is the outlook for snow for ireland cavan

BEASTERLY · 01-12-2011 11:57pm

The 12z GFS and ECM were disappointing today for the long term! The Icelandic low and that high drifting around in the Azores! Then the GFS went for the old enemy, the Euro high!:mad: The 18z GFS is much better!(EDIT: The 18z goes for the Euro high at the end of the run

Ah well it's FI so will never happen anyway :P)

The climate and prediction centre have predicted the AO and NAO going neutral trending negative in the 14 day time frame. Maybe we were right to think that the mild southerlies of November were pumping energy into the higher latitudes would help promote high pressure there? Hopefully this will become evident on the models soon enough.

AO
6034073

NAO

01-12-2011 11:59pm

Eugene Scary Meteorite wrote: »

Freezing fog or something in athlone. Just got outside and car frosted over and very foggy outside.

Yes, and it happened very quickly at 17:40 there was a heavy dew on the car, ten minutes later it was frozen hard!

I had gone out the check the car before getting the kids ready to go out.

Musicman2000 · 02-12-2011 12:03am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The 12z GFS and ECM were disappointing today for the long term! The Icelandic low and that high drifting around in the Azores! Then the GFS went for the old enemy, the Euro high!:mad: The 18z GFS is much better!(EDIT: The 18z goes for the Euro high at the end of the run Ah well it's FI so will never happen anyway :P)

The climate and prediction centre have predicted the AO and NAO going neutral trending negative in the 14 day time frame. Maybe we were right to think that the mild southerlies of November were pumping energy into the higher latitudes would help promote high pressure there? Hopefully this will become evident on the models soon enough.

AO

NAO

My bets are on a scandi High:)

BEASTERLY · 02-12-2011 12:05am

Musicman2000 wrote: »

My bets are on a scandi High:)

OH please Jebus let it be so!

eyesquirm · 02-12-2011 12:07am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The 12z GFS and ECM were disappointing today for the long term! The Icelandic low and that high drifting around in the Azores! Then the GFS went for the old enemy, the Euro high!:mad: The 18z GFS is much better!(EDIT: The 18z goes for the Euro high at the end of the run Ah well it's FI so will never happen anyway :P)

The climate and prediction centre have predicted the AO and NAO going neutral trending negative in the 14 day time frame. Maybe we were right to think that the mild southerlies of November were pumping energy into the higher latitudes would help promote high pressure there? Hopefully this will become evident on the models soon enough.

AO

NAO

Forgive my ignorance but what on earth does that mean? Where do I look to find out?