Any weather predictions for this summer please?

Birdnuts

This May is turning out to be a real stinker - constant breezy, cold muck from the NW is all that is on offer for next week, sooner this month is over the better:(

maxer68

BBC Monthly forecast issued this morning suggests a long period of mainly dry warm weather from 6th June.

Monday 30 May 2011 to Sunday 5 June 2011
A tale of two halves

The rather unsettled weather will continue into the beginning of next week but high pressure to the south of the UK will once again make inroads into southern counties.
This will lead to a warming trend as well as a fairly dry outlook here, but further north and west there's more wet, windy and cool weather in prospect.


Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 19 June 2011
Sunshine in store

Warm, sunny weather looks likely to take hold across the UK for the middle of June. Perhaps this will be rather welcome in the north and west but for anyone hoping for rain, the totals look likely to be around or below the amounts we would normally expect at this time of year.

Duiske

Have been watching the 18z GFS for the past week or so, and the latter parts of the runs were suggesting high pressure building from the south bringing warm, settled conditions. Its sticking to its guns on this, and has the high moving in from next wednesday, with potentially very warm sunny weather for the bank hoiday weekend. Of course, I realise that it is so far out that the word "potential" may even be pushing it, but its something to keep an eye on.

joe199

fingers crossed it comes off

Harps

Problem is it keep getting pushed out, nothing but more stormy weather for the rest of this month now. The Bank Holiday weekend in June is looking much better on the gfs so it'd be nice if this comes off

mike65

I agree, a bit of summer type weather is on the way, looks like it'll start to take effect from next Thursday.

Birdnuts

Will be glad to see the back of this wretched month - its been consistantly unpleasent in every possible way:(

pauldry

The models do tend to be agreeing with a June start for a warm spell. Dont under estimate the Northwesterly though as it can stay locked in a long time. I am expecting a very warm Summer this year and see no reason to think that we wont have one but just need the Northwesterly to shift and on Wednesday the High may have a bloody good go.

Do your damndest High. No temperatures over 20c in May at all a disgrace. Plus the windiest May in manys a long time in the West. Our beaches are destroyed even if the warm weather comes

Birdnuts

pauldry wrote: »

Do your damndest High. No temperatures over 20c in May at all a disgrace. Plus the windiest May in manys a long time in the West. Our beaches are destroyed even if the warm weather comes

Indeed - this May must be what its like spending the summer in the Shetlands!!:(

Coeurdepirate

My friend told me that it said in some newspaper that it's supposed to go up to 32.5 degrees.

Any truth in this do ye think?

maxer68

Coeurdepirate wrote: »

My friend told me that it said in some newspaper that it's supposed to go up to 32.5 degrees.

Any truth in this do ye think?

Newpapers contact about 20 so called amateur forecasters, some forecast based on how the sheep are pointing, some by the moon and some by other weird means.

Once they get one that gives them the answer they are looking for, they run the story.

Once in a lifetime, these forecaters get it right and they then live off this freak correctness for the rest of their lives.

It is impossible to predict Irish Weather more than 7 days in advance and even that is difficult. You can look at trends and give the most likeliest of scenarios based on patterns and past experience, but anyone saying 32 degrees is purely having a shot in the dark

dsmythy

Coeurdepirate wrote: »

My friend told me that it said in some newspaper that it's supposed to go up to 32.5 degrees.

Any truth in this do ye think?

I saw The Mirror with a story talking about an all-summer scorcher with temps up to 34C. Someone from netweather the source. I think i'll stick with MT's more realistic outlook.

ednwireland

the amount of trees and bushes with dryed out leaves from windburn up here in the northwest, seen whole sections of hedgrow with brown leaves on them.

pauldry

32 -34c is not going to happen in Ireland

We might hit 30c if we get a prolonged warm spell in late June or July

UK can make 34 easily

As for the warm spell on way. Its been downgraded somewhat to a couple of warm days for Thursday Friday and Saturday and then some dry cooler days after this. Sure well be all sunburnt anyways and wishing for rain :mad:(sunburnt and wishing for rain face)

Harps

ednwireland wrote: »

the amount of trees and bushes with dryed out leaves from windburn up here in the northwest, seen whole sections of hedgrow with brown leaves on them.

Yeah I've never seen anything like it, looks like late Autumn around here with all the dead leaves. The wildlife around here has been destroyed over the past 6 months between the frost, wildfires and now the storm

ednwireland

Harps wrote: »

Yeah I've never seen anything like it, looks like late Autumn around here with all the dead leaves. The wildlife around here has been destroyed over the past 6 months between the frost, wildfires and now the storm

not sure its just the storm its months of pretty much non stop winds even half my spuds never came up (yet)

Birdnuts

Awfull 12Z ECM tonight for next week - looks like constant cold muck from the N/NE:(

je55ie

Birdnuts wrote: »

Awfull 12Z ECM tonight for next week - looks like constant cold muck from the N/NE:(

big thumps down :(:(

Danno

Have never done a Summer LRF before, but here goes...

PATTERN: High pressure dominant for most of the summer, however low pressure will dominate for the end of June and middle two or three weeks of July.

HEAT: June generally, especially towards the end, July towards the second half of the month, and start of August.

WIND: Second week of July and mid-August will see the windiest periods, though nothing too strong (barring a tornado in June!)

THUNDER: End of June, last week of July and first week of August.

RAINFALL: Rather dry overall, frontal rain in mid July and mid August, after that it's thunderstorms that will provide it - see above.

COLD: Early to mid June and Mid July a tad cool, August will cool off after the first week and rather cold at the end of August.

SUNSHINE: Above average, perhaps some records, especially at southern coastal stations.

...nothing too technical about my method... Gut Feeling!