Any weather predictions for this summer please?

ilovesleep

I dont think I can handle another washout

delw

MT's summer forcast

Summer outlook -- In general, expect a reasonably warm and dry to near normal summer (this would apply to the months June to September, and also to "astronomical summer" 21 June to 21 Sept). There will be intervals of very warm, dry weather at times, separated by periods that are close to normal in temperature with more frequent rainfall. It is not expected to become oppressively warm or hot for long periods, but there could be a few hot days. The trend from June to August is likely to be a drying trend. Now, as the current conditions are quite dry in the north especially, what this means is that May will bring somewhat more normal rainfalls and so will June, so this current drought should ease although not likely totally erased. Then a somewhat drier trend will return, and this applies to north and south. This dry trend is likely to continue into September.

For those who would like numbers more than words, this prediction would expect June to be about 0.5 to 1.0 C deg above average with near normal rainfall; July about zero to 0.5 C deg above average with 80-100% of normal rainfall, and August about 0.7 to 1.4 C deg above average with 60-80% of normal rainfall. This August trend should be continued in September.

This appears likely to be another rather active tropical storm season in the North Atlantic so there is likely a higher than random chance of a brush with one remnant storm system most likely in September or October.

While these comments are meant to be quite general, local storms can always develop within this pattern and be quite notable for small areas. The pattern I foresee for this summer is not particularly "potent" for severe storm development but a long-range forecast really cannot hope to predict that sort of detail months in advance.

Although I don't expect a major heat wave like that experienced in August 2003 or July 2006, this summer does show a little higher than average on a heat wave index from analogues, so I would not want to rule out that chance, but would rate it as about one in five (random might be more like one in ten).

I will probably post this summer outlook in a separate thread later today, so would ask if people might address comments or questions to that thread rather than to this daily forecast thread. Thanks. I may try to give some details in that thread not mentioned in this outlook forecast, from my research.

edit:also http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056256567

youngblood

Rain and sunshine

Birdnuts

No sign of summer for the next 10 days at least looking at the latest outputs:(

pauldry

Generally a wet May aint a bad sign. Cud mean heat in July or August.

Duiske

pauldry wrote: »

Generally a wet May aint a bad sign. Cud mean heat in July or August.

Hopefully there is something in that. For the past 3/4 years we have had good April/May weather, then fairly bad summers, though i guess last summer was fairly average rather than bad.

the varg

ilovesleep wrote: »

I dont think I can handle another washout

Not looking good right now..thunderstorm in ranelagh.:(

up for anything

I read a post over the weekend where someone asserted that a heatwave is on the way from the middle of this week for four weeks. Can't remember where I saw the post, probably AH. Is there any foundation for this?

Mr Benevolent

up for anything wrote: »

I read a post over the weekend where someone asserted that a heatwave is on the way from the middle of this week for four weeks. Can't remember where I saw the post, probably AH. Is there any foundation for this?

From Met.ie:

OUTLOOK: Rather unsettled and breezy, with showers, mainly affecting the western half of the country. TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and breezy, with outbreaks of rain moving down southwards across the country. Lowest temperatures 8 to 11 degrees, with fresh and gusty westerly winds. WEDNESDAY: A cool, blustery day, with a mix of sunshine and widespread showers. Some of the showers will be heavy and possibly thundery across Connacht, Ulster and west Munster, though parts of the southeast will stay largely dry. Highest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees, in a fresh to strong and gusty westerly wind, moderating later in the evening. THURSDAY: Not quite as breezy, but nonetheless winds will increase fresh southwesterly. The day will bring a mix of sunny spells and showers, mainly affecting the western half of the country, with some eastern counties escaping dry. Again afternoon maxima will reach no more than 12 to 14 or possibly 15 degrees, highest in the east. FRIDAY: Rather cloudy and breezy, with rain or drizzle from time to time, occasionally turning heavy in the northwest. Not quite as cool, with temperatures rising to between 12 and 17 degrees, mildest over south Munster and south Leinster, where there will be some sunny breaks.

TL;DR: No.

bc dub

Has anyone any for the June Bank holiday weekend? I missed the last two due to illness. sniff ..

up for anything

Confab wrote: »

No.

:(:(

pauldry

June Bank Holiday signals some thundery actvity to the south and west but also some dry sunny weather so uncertain until closer to the event

Rabidlamb

UK - Daily Mail
Two-week heatwave on its way as forecasters predict hottest May in 350 years

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1387492/UK-weather-2-week-heatwave-forecasters-predict-hottest-May-350-years.html

BBQ summer indeed......

Strasser

Some good news here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess=

She Devil

My grandad predicts the weather correctly every single year, he is usually spot on a few weeks in advance but sadly he passed away last September!
I am getting married this summer, and would only love for him to have put me straight on the weather, I don't want to have to rely on stupid met eireann!
Every day is the same, Rain with possible dry spells, or the opposite! :mad::mad::mad:
HOPEFULLY, we will have a dry summer, I'd take that even!

fizzycyst

She Devil wrote: »

My grandad predicts the weather correctly every single year, he is usually spot on a few weeks in advance but sadly he passed away last September!
I am getting married this summer, and would only love for him to have put me straight on the weather, I don't want to have to rely on stupid met eireann!
Every day is the same, Rain with possible dry spells, or the opposite! :mad::mad::mad:
HOPEFULLY, we will have a dry summer, I'd take that even!

It's not met eireann's fault if the weather doesn't suit you, in fairness.

Tabnabs

Here's how Yr.no are calling it

http://translate.google.ie/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=no&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yr.no%2Fnyheter%2F1.7637674&act=url

pauldry

Yeah fear that warm Summer here will be becoz of drizzly nights. I know MT is the word but I dont see any good dry hot weather till mid June now. theres a High planted in the Atlantic pulling Northewestlies over us for the next month but it stops at Europe so theyr gettin heat

Birdnuts

Its turning out to be a pretty poor May with near wall to wall blustery cool weather and the outlook is not much better - indeed the early days of next week look like something out of late-autumn with gales and heavy rain for most:(

lord lucan

Birdnuts wrote: »

Its turning out to be a pretty poor May with near wall to wall blustery cool weather and the outlook is not much better - indeed the early days of next week look like something out of late-autumn with gales and heavy rain for most:(

It's pretty depressing. Not even getting the benefit of the longer evenings as it's overcast most of the time.:(

df1985

Vey depressing, Im completely fed up with it!

dirtyghettokid

another depressing morning in north county dublin...... i really hope it changes soon, but i'm outta here for three weeks on tuesday anyway. hopefully it will be more summer-like when i return!
feels wrong to be wearing jumpers & jackets so close to june. the air was so damp yesterday evening, it felt like winter!

weisses

It's Ireland ffs .... If you want a proper summer move to central Spain

And when it comes to all the summer predictions ..... Predicting 3 days ahead seems difficult enough .... MT is putting his "warmer" spell forward every morning ... and yeah at a certain point he would be right

And then with ME incompetence to provide a good forecast and keep it updated regularly instead of twice a day ( people having to go to UK and Norwegian websites to get at least some decent info) or figure it out themselves.

rant over :rolleyes:

mike65

Its actually chilly! The bad news is that there is no improvement in sight - great fecking high pressure to the left and to the right but we're stuck with the jet-stream bringing crap.

delw

weisses wrote: »

It's Ireland ffs .... If you want a proper summer move to central Spain

And when it comes to all the summer predictions ..... Predicting 3 days ahead seems difficult enough .... MT is putting his "warmer" spell forward every morning ... and yeah at a certain point he would be right

And then with ME incompetence to provide a good forecast and keep it updated regularly instead of twice a day ( people having to go to UK and Norwegian websites to get at least some decent info) or figure it out themselves.

rant over :rolleyes:

why dont you tell us how you really feel

old hippy

18 degrees here in London, heading towards 23 by Tuesday. Sweet.

weisses

delw wrote: »

why dont you tell us how you really feel

Not appropriate for the weather forum

ilovesleep

mike65 wrote: »

Its actually chilly! The bad news is that there is no improvement in sight - great fecking high pressure to the left and to the right but we're stuck with the jet-stream bringing crap.

I went back this week to wearing a wolly scarf. I was frozen

nacho libre

foolish humans with your whimsical nature:p

some of you a few months back during the snow were loving the idea of the jet stream dominating our weather, now you have the opposite view.

mike65

The fecking thing is the wrong way round! Bring on +NAO!

lord lucan

nacho libre wrote: »

foolish humans with your whimsical nature:p

some of you a few months back during the snow were loving the idea of the jet stream dominating our weather, now you have the opposite view.

My idea is,loads of sunshine,no wind and the odd shower(at night when we're all asleep). Perfect.:D

Birdnuts

This May is turning out to be a real stinker - constant breezy, cold muck from the NW is all that is on offer for next week, sooner this month is over the better:(

maxer68

BBC Monthly forecast issued this morning suggests a long period of mainly dry warm weather from 6th June.

Monday 30 May 2011 to Sunday 5 June 2011
A tale of two halves

The rather unsettled weather will continue into the beginning of next week but high pressure to the south of the UK will once again make inroads into southern counties.
This will lead to a warming trend as well as a fairly dry outlook here, but further north and west there's more wet, windy and cool weather in prospect.


Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 19 June 2011
Sunshine in store

Warm, sunny weather looks likely to take hold across the UK for the middle of June. Perhaps this will be rather welcome in the north and west but for anyone hoping for rain, the totals look likely to be around or below the amounts we would normally expect at this time of year.

Duiske

Have been watching the 18z GFS for the past week or so, and the latter parts of the runs were suggesting high pressure building from the south bringing warm, settled conditions. Its sticking to its guns on this, and has the high moving in from next wednesday, with potentially very warm sunny weather for the bank hoiday weekend. Of course, I realise that it is so far out that the word "potential" may even be pushing it, but its something to keep an eye on.

joe199

fingers crossed it comes off

Harps

Problem is it keep getting pushed out, nothing but more stormy weather for the rest of this month now. The Bank Holiday weekend in June is looking much better on the gfs so it'd be nice if this comes off

mike65

I agree, a bit of summer type weather is on the way, looks like it'll start to take effect from next Thursday.

Birdnuts

Will be glad to see the back of this wretched month - its been consistantly unpleasent in every possible way:(

pauldry

The models do tend to be agreeing with a June start for a warm spell. Dont under estimate the Northwesterly though as it can stay locked in a long time. I am expecting a very warm Summer this year and see no reason to think that we wont have one but just need the Northwesterly to shift and on Wednesday the High may have a bloody good go.

Do your damndest High. No temperatures over 20c in May at all a disgrace. Plus the windiest May in manys a long time in the West. Our beaches are destroyed even if the warm weather comes

Birdnuts

pauldry wrote: »

Do your damndest High. No temperatures over 20c in May at all a disgrace. Plus the windiest May in manys a long time in the West. Our beaches are destroyed even if the warm weather comes

Indeed - this May must be what its like spending the summer in the Shetlands!!:(

Coeurdepirate

My friend told me that it said in some newspaper that it's supposed to go up to 32.5 degrees.

Any truth in this do ye think?

maxer68

Coeurdepirate wrote: »

My friend told me that it said in some newspaper that it's supposed to go up to 32.5 degrees.

Any truth in this do ye think?

Newpapers contact about 20 so called amateur forecasters, some forecast based on how the sheep are pointing, some by the moon and some by other weird means.

Once they get one that gives them the answer they are looking for, they run the story.

Once in a lifetime, these forecaters get it right and they then live off this freak correctness for the rest of their lives.

It is impossible to predict Irish Weather more than 7 days in advance and even that is difficult. You can look at trends and give the most likeliest of scenarios based on patterns and past experience, but anyone saying 32 degrees is purely having a shot in the dark

dsmythy

Coeurdepirate wrote: »

My friend told me that it said in some newspaper that it's supposed to go up to 32.5 degrees.

Any truth in this do ye think?

I saw The Mirror with a story talking about an all-summer scorcher with temps up to 34C. Someone from netweather the source. I think i'll stick with MT's more realistic outlook.

ednwireland

the amount of trees and bushes with dryed out leaves from windburn up here in the northwest, seen whole sections of hedgrow with brown leaves on them.

pauldry

32 -34c is not going to happen in Ireland

We might hit 30c if we get a prolonged warm spell in late June or July

UK can make 34 easily

As for the warm spell on way. Its been downgraded somewhat to a couple of warm days for Thursday Friday and Saturday and then some dry cooler days after this. Sure well be all sunburnt anyways and wishing for rain :mad:(sunburnt and wishing for rain face)

Harps

ednwireland wrote: »

the amount of trees and bushes with dryed out leaves from windburn up here in the northwest, seen whole sections of hedgrow with brown leaves on them.

Yeah I've never seen anything like it, looks like late Autumn around here with all the dead leaves. The wildlife around here has been destroyed over the past 6 months between the frost, wildfires and now the storm

ednwireland

Harps wrote: »

Yeah I've never seen anything like it, looks like late Autumn around here with all the dead leaves. The wildlife around here has been destroyed over the past 6 months between the frost, wildfires and now the storm

not sure its just the storm its months of pretty much non stop winds even half my spuds never came up (yet)

Birdnuts

Awfull 12Z ECM tonight for next week - looks like constant cold muck from the N/NE:(

je55ie

Birdnuts wrote: »

Awfull 12Z ECM tonight for next week - looks like constant cold muck from the N/NE:(

big thumps down :(:(

Danno

Have never done a Summer LRF before, but here goes...

PATTERN: High pressure dominant for most of the summer, however low pressure will dominate for the end of June and middle two or three weeks of July.

HEAT: June generally, especially towards the end, July towards the second half of the month, and start of August.

WIND: Second week of July and mid-August will see the windiest periods, though nothing too strong (barring a tornado in June!)

THUNDER: End of June, last week of July and first week of August.

RAINFALL: Rather dry overall, frontal rain in mid July and mid August, after that it's thunderstorms that will provide it - see above.

COLD: Early to mid June and Mid July a tad cool, August will cool off after the first week and rather cold at the end of August.

SUNSHINE: Above average, perhaps some records, especially at southern coastal stations.

...nothing too technical about my method... Gut Feeling!