The D'Alembert way

stingerro

It will be a hectic day, with plenty of bets and also plenty of stuff to do in my work. So my picks will be published quite late (next around 3.30pm, 6pm and 8.30 pm). I also for 1 PLN created an accumulator, maybe I will publish specifics in a free moment.

stingerro

Pick nr 15 (stage 4th):
(Bundesliga) Hannover - Borussia M (Pick: Home win)
(Sedunda Division) Salamanca - Elche (Pick: Home win or Draw)
Total Odds=2,44, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=61 PLN

Previous bet is not over, but it looks like I will have all money back (2xDNB), or I will win part-time. So I decided to use the same amount of money for next bet.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 14 (stage 4th):
(2. Bundesliga) Ingolstadt-Aue (Pick: Home win DNB)
(Romanian Football) Sportul - TG Mures (Pick: Home win DNB)
Total Odds=2,31, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=58 PLN

Ingolstadt-Aue (Final Result - 0:0)
Sportul - TG Mures (Final Result: 1:2)
Bank Balance=89 PLN (-39 PLN since beginning)

Great :mad:. Sportul conceded 2 games in last 15 minutes and I even didn't get a refund. What a poor start.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 15 (stage 4th):
(Bundesliga) Hannover - Borussia M (Pick: Home win)
(Sedunda Division) Salamanca - Elche (Pick: Home win or Draw)
Total Odds=2,44, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=61 PLN

Hannover - Borussia M (0:1):mad:
Salamanca - Elche (5:4)
Bank Balance=63 PLN (-65 PLN)

stingerro

Pick nr 16 (stage 5th):
(Segunda Division) Betis Sevilla - Numancia (Pick: Home win)
(Croatia Football) Istra 1961 - Varazdin (Pick: Home Win)
Total Odds=2,24, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=67 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 16 (stage 5th):
(Segunda Division) Betis Sevilla - Numancia (Pick: Home win)
(Croatia Football) Istra 1961 - Varazdin (Pick: Home Win)
Total Odds=2,24, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=67 PLN

Betis Sevilla - Numancia (Final result: 4:1)
Istra 1961 - Varazdin (Final result: 2:0)
Bank Balance=100 PLN (-28 PLN)

Once again I somehow survived going down, really disappointed with Hannover 96 result, they let me down big time.

stingerro

Pick nr 17 (stage 4th):
(MLS) Red Bull - Kansas City (Pick: Over 3 goals)
Total Odds=2,30, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=57 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 17 (stage 4th):
(MLS) Red Bull - Kansas City (Pick: Over 3 goals)
Total Odds=2,30, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=57 PLN

Red Bull - Kansas City (Final Result: 1:0) :mad:
Bank Balance=75 PLN (-53 PLN)

stingerro

Bet365 server went down just when I was making a pick for games starting at 3pm :mad:

stingerro

Pick nr 18 (stage 5th):
(Premier League) Arsenal - Manchester United (Pick: MU or Draw)
(Serie A) Sampdoria - Brescia (Pick: Under 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=2,16, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=65 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 18 (stage 5th):
(Premier League) Arsenal - Manchester United (Pick: MU or Draw)
(Serie A) Sampdoria - Brescia (Pick: Under 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=2,16, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=65 PLN

Arsenal - Manchester United (Final result: 1:0) :mad:
Sampdoria - Brescia (Final result: 3:3) :mad:
Bank Balance=45 PLN (- 83 PLN)

Misery continues, one more wrong bet and I'm out.

stingerro

Pick nr 19 (stage 6th):
(MLB) Cleveland Indians - Detroit Tigers (Pick: Cleveland)
(Serie A) Steaua Bucarest - Gloria Bistrita (Pick: Steaua)
Total Odds=2,33, Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=81 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 19 (stage 6th):
(MLB) Cleveland Indians - Detroit Tigers (Pick: Cleveland)
(Serie A) Steaua Bucarest - Gloria Bistrita (Pick: Steaua)
Total Odds=2,33, Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=81 PLN

Cleveland Indians - Detroit Tigers (Final result: 5:4)
Steaua Bucarest - Gloria Bistrita (Final result: 3:1)
Bank Balance=91 PLN (- 37 PLN)

Ufff, that was close. But I still am in the game and on top of that maybe I finally found a decent MLB tipster. Hopefully he won't cool off anytime soon.

alscrxangels

That was close. That's the worst thing about following systems. You follow them to the letter of the law but when you get a bad run it seriously hurts.

By the way are you doing two of them at the same time....or even more?

stingerro

alscrxangels wrote: »

That was close. That's the worst thing about following systems. You follow them to the letter of the law but when you get a bad run it seriously hurts.

By the way are you doing two of them at the same time....or even more?

Hah, 2nd outside post in my log . I know about possible negatives of this system (as well as others), but I somehow like it doing this way. Even if results aren't supporting my feelings...yet

It has also to be mentioned that I should have money in my bank to be ready for around 10 stages and I have only for 6, so its even more risky. But if I won't improve with my picks selection no amount of money will help me.

Sorry, but don't understand your 2nd paragraph, two of what?

alscrxangels

Sorry that wasn't the clearist now was it. I looked back on all the threads from the beginning and I see that I had not read them right. Got confused with the overlaps.

So when a bet comes off you only go back down to the previous stage instead of going back to stage one. Understand the principle of it alright. Done something like that before and I found it pretty crap sort of feeling when betting. you needed to be pretty good with the bets but one bad run would end it all. That's what got me in the end as well was the fact that I was doing something with half the Bank or what I was suppose to be using.

But it is whatever suits you. Some people just keep backing flat and never recoop the losses and do fine where as other people, usually with a good bank and patience can build up the profit slowly over time. I tend to do an even lighter version of your system. Works for me but it can be hard to keep the dicipline when chasing losses.

Will keep an eye on you to see how you get on with. Best of Luck.

stingerro

alscrxangels wrote: »

Will keep an eye on you to see how you get on with. Best of Luck.

Thanks, appreciate it. Especially when I can be bankrupt when you will be reading my reply .

I know my posts are very late, so decided to change it a little bit and make a short preview of games I plan to bet on (if I won't go into red earlier of course...):

Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Cardiff win HT/FT) - I've checked results from this season and when Cardiff won a game, they were leading at HT 13 out of 19 matches. Good enough for me.

Angelholm - Qviding (Angelhorm win HT/FT or their win with a handicap)

Waiting for play on today's 2.Bundesliga game (Energie Cottbus - Augsburg), not sure if it will happen though.

stingerro

Pick nr 20 (stage 5th):
(nPower Championship) Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Pick: Cardiff Win HT/FT)
Total Odds=1,95, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=59 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 20 (stage 5th):
(nPower Championship) Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Pick: Cardiff Win HT/FT)
Total Odds=1,95, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=59 PLN

Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Final result: 0:3) :mad:
Total Odds=1,95, Stake=30 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=61 PLN (- 67 PLN)

Wow, that was brutal. Terrible 1st half by Cardiff and they are down 0:3 against Boro. Hosts are playing 3rd goalkeeper today and he is not very good.

stingerro

Pick nr 21 (stage 6th):
(2. Bundesliga) Energie Cattbus - Augsburg (Pick: Cottbus +0,25)
Total Odds=1,83,Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=63 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 21 (stage 6th):
(2. Bundesliga) Energie Cottbus - Augsburg (Pick: Cottbus +0,25)
Total Odds=1,83,Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=63 PLN

Energie Cottbus - Augsburg (Final result: 1:1)
Total Odds=1,83, Stake=35 PLN, Return=49 PLN
Bank Balance=75 PLN (- 53 PLN)

I survived once again and made a small profit on the game, which makes my bank balance big enough to bet on 2 more games (in case 1st would be a loss).

stingerro

Not sure what it is - me being a poor punter or me being scared of going out of money with 2 more wrong picks and second thinking too much. Either way I've had a chance to take over 172,5 pts in Bulls-Hawks in play during 1st half and didn't go for it.

stingerro

Bulls - Hawks 95:103, looks like line of 173 or 178 didn't matter in the end. Still, should take advantage over a sloppy start :mad:

stingerro

Pick nr 22 (stage 6th):
(ATP Masters Madrid) Ivan Ljubicic - Giles Simon (Pick: Ljubicic)
Total Odds=2,25,Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=79 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 22 (stage 6th):
(ATP Masters Madrid) Ivan Ljubicic - Giles Simon (Pick: Ljubicic)
Total Odds=2,25,Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=79 PLN

Ivan Ljubicic - Giles Simon (Final result: 5:7, 6:7) :mad:
Total Odds=2,25, Stake=35 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=40 PLN (- 88 PLN)

And once again I am one lost bet from end of my short journey. Disappointed, as I had in plan to make a bet for a horse Pyro is going for, but I will have to look for a less risky bet.

stingerro

Pick nr 23 (stage 7th):
(Bulgaria) Beroe - Lokomotiv Plovdiv (Pick: Plovdiv win DNB)
(Baltic League) Siauliai - Ventspils (Pick: Ventspils win DNB)
Total Odds=2,25,Stake=40 PLN, Potential return=90 PLN

Sorry, but I was busy for last 2-3 hours and totally forgot about making a post with my pick. Pick which lost in the end...

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 23 (stage 7th):
(Bulgaria) Beroe - Lokomotiv Plovdiv (Pick: Plovdiv win DNB)
(Baltic League) Siauliai - Ventspils (Pick: Ventspils win DNB)
Total Odds=2,25,Stake=40 PLN, Potential return=90 PLN

Beroe - Lokomotiv Plovdiv (Final result: 1:0) :mad:
Siauliai - Ventspils (Final Result: 0:2)
Total Odds=2,25,Stake=40 PLN, Potential return=90 PLN
Bank Balance=0 PLN (- 128 PLN)

Game over :mad:. Will have to think how to go from that.

alscrxangels

Game over :mad:. Will have to think how to go from that.[/QUOTE]


. Sorry to hear about the last loss.

It's tough trying to follow something like that to the letter of the law.
You seem to bet on a great variety of sports which suprised me. I'm sure you know all about what you're betting on and that's the hardest part, admitting you got it wrong.

I'd bank up again and take a lighter version of what you're doing. Maybe dropping back 2 phases after a win or something like that.

I noticed you do a lot of doubles and I bet that if you seperated them and done them seperatly you would still be going I'd say. .

Hey it's easy to look at other people and say you would have done it different but I'd defo go for the longer term strategy.:rolleyes:

stingerro

alscrxangels - Thanks for showing some interest .

My betting is not an indication of various sports knowledge, as I feel comfortable only in european football plus polish basketball league (when I have plenty of inside sources as well) and NBA. I made a various bets because I did a big re-search looking for tipsters worthy tailing and I tried to take advantage of that. Probably I need to limit tipsters worthy following to 4-5. I also should take an advantage of a fact that because of my work I know journalists covering various sports, they sometimes have interesting betting ideas, from tennis, cricket, snooker and other sports.

Regarding D'Alembert system and me using singles/doubles - I tried to find a best possible bet and I don't like to do exceptions of system used. Not sure what I will do now - maybe I will keep going after transferring more money, or maybe I will do something using virtual money. We'll see.

This is the topic which made me interested in using this system, too bad "honor88" was much better in making a right bets than myself - http://www.bettingexpert.com/pl/forum/showthread.php?t=1381 (it's in polish unfortunately, but you can clearly see how well he was doing and that this system makes sense, when you have a decent % of successful bets).