The D'Alembert way

stingerro

Okay, hopefully it won't be the shortest lived log ever here, but you never know with me :cool:. As english is not my native language, apologize for all grammar and spelling mistakes.

ElLocoAde introduced this board to me last year, as we both post on international football board he mentioned a few times. After a few weeks I've disappeared, but feeling now it's right time to come back.

I've decided to use a D'Alembert system (ligter than Martingale's progressive system), so I will be making bets for around 2.0 odds total, using singles, or doubles. It will be "recreational" betting for low money using bet365.com, unfortunately most of my bets will be published late, as usually I will have to wait before previous game will end to make sure what stake I should use.

I have a plan to keep playing this way until I would reach Stage 9th of incorrect bets. My bank balance is not enough big at the moment (have 128 PLN there, should have 220 PLN), but if it would be needed I will transfer extra 90 PLN to have enough money for all 8 stages (10+15+20+25+30+35+40+45).

Most of my bets will be "stolen" from other tipsters or sites I'm following, including some of tipsters which are posting here.

Pick nr 1 (stage 1. - game were played earlier today, I promise it will be only time I did like that):
(Romania Football) Unirea Urzicei - CFR Cluj 2
(Romania Football) FC Brasov - Victoria Branesti 1
Total Odds=2.26, Stake=9 PLN, Return=20 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 1 (stage 1. - game were played earlier today, I promise it will be only time I did like that):
(Romania Football) Unirea Urzicei - CFR Cluj 2
(Romania Football) FC Brasov - Victoria Branesti 1
Total Odds=2.26, Stake=9 PLN, Potential return=20 PLN

(Romania Football) Unirea Urzicei - CFR Cluj 2 (FT = 1:3)
(Romania Football) FC Brasov - Victoria Branesti 1 (FT = 1:0)
Total Odds=2.26, Stake=9 PLN, Return=20 PLN
Bank Balance=139 PLN (+11 PLN)

stingerro

Pick nr 2 (stage 1.):
(Champions League) Real Madrid - FC Barcelona (Asian Goals - Under 2 goals)
Total Odds=2.30, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=23 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 2 (stage 1.):
(Champions League) Real Madrid - FC Barcelona (Asian Goals - Under 2 goals)
Total Odds=2.30, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=23 PLN

(Champions League) Real Madrid - FC Barcelona (Asian Goals - Under 2 goals) , Final Result=0:2
Total Odds=2.30, Stake=10 PLN, Return=Draw No Bet
Bank Balance=139 PLN (+11 PLN since beginning)

Stupid Pepe, stupid ref and stupid Messi - it was going perfectly for under 2 goals and all three made it draw no bet. Of course stupid me as well, as I was too greedy to play under 2,5 goals, oh well. Will try to prepare something for the night, Copa Libertadores or MLB looks like the best possibility.

stingerro

Pick nr 3 (stage 1.):
(Copa Libertadores) Santos - Club America (both teams to score)
Total Odds=1.80, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=18 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 3 (stage 1.):
(Copa Libertadores) Santos - Club America (both teams to score)
Total Odds=1.80, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=18 PLN

(Copa Libertadores) Santos vs Club America - both teams to score (Final Result = 1:0) :mad:
Total Odds=1.80, Stake=10 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=129 PLN (+1 PLN since beginning)

stingerro

Pick nr 4 (stage 2.):
(Romania Football) Dinamo - Bistrita (Over 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=1.72, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=25 PLN

stingerro

It's time for my own pick, so it deserves some explanation why I am going for an underdog. I will definitely make this pick just before 6 pm, just don't know what stake I will put (as it depends on previous games results in D'Alembert system)

Turow Zgorzelec vs Trefl Sopot, Polish Basketball League, Game 5 of semifinals. 2.50 for guests win

It's 2-2 after 4 games in series when team needs 4 games to win and advance to the finals. Trefl is in theory an underdog here (being 3rd seeded, Turow 2nd) and playing on the road in difficult circumstances (long road and rowdy crowd). But they are widely considered to be a better team - they won game 1st (at road) and 3rd (home), both times losing 2 days later, allowing Turow to tie series twice. Trefl also won both games in regular season. In a league when you need to have 2 polish players all the time on the court it's big advantage for Trefl to have better local players than Turow's. One of them, Filip Dylewicz, is also the only one player in the series who has skills and experience to be a difference maker. Turow also doesn't have a back up point guard, which not only makes their starting PG tired in 4th quarters, but it also makes more difficult for them to have a bigger variety in the way they're playing.

I've also just spoke to Trefl's sports director (who is my good friend), he told me they had good week of practices (there was a break because of Easter) and all players are healthy. So at 2.50 it's IMO a decent opportunity to back Trefl. Good luck.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 4 (stage 2.):
(Romania Football) Dinamo - Bistrita (Over 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=1.72, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=25 PLN

(Romania Football) Dinamo vs Bistrita, Over 2,5 goals - Final Result: 3:0
Total Odds=1.72, Stake=15 PLN, Return=25 PLN
Bank Balance=139 PLN (+11 PLN since beginning)

stingerro

Pick nr 5 (stage 1.):
(Romania football) Otelul - Gaz Metan (Pick: Otelul Win)
(Woman Tennis) Sara Errani - Alberta Brianti (Pick: Errani win)
Total Odds=1.99, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=20 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 5 (stage 1.):
(Romania football) Otelul - Gaz Metan (Pick: Otelul Win)
(Woman Tennis) Sara Errani - Alberta Brianti (Pick: Errani win)
Total Odds=1.99, Stake=10 PLN, Potential return=20 PLN

Otelul - Gaz Metan 2:2 :mad:
Sara Errani - Alberta Brianti 6:2, 6:3
Total Odds=1.99, Stake=10 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=129 PLN (+1 PLN since beginning)

I am not sure about that, but it looks like Otelul didn't convert a penalty in additional time, oh well

stingerro

Pick nr 7 (stage 3.):
(Men's Tennis) Frederico Gil - Fernando Verdasco (Pick: Gil win)
Total Odds=2,20, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=44 PLN

Grrrrr, shouldn't bet when working, put 20 PLN instead of 15 on it. I will correct it with Turow vs Trefl match though.

stingerro

Pick nr 6 (stage 2.):
(Polish Basketball) PGE Turow Zgorzelec - Trefl Sopot (Pick: Trefl win)
Total Odds=2,35, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=35 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 7 (stage 3.):
(Men's Tennis) Frederico Gil - Fernando Verdasco (Pick: Gil win)
Total Odds=2,20, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=44 PLN

Frederico Gil - Fernando Verdasco 1:6, 6:7 :mad:
Total Odds=2.20, Stake=10 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=109 PLN (-19 PLN since beginning)

Not what I've expected especially when Trefl is trailing by 11 points at half time, playing some truly terrible basketball.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 6 (stage 2.):
(Polish Basketball) PGE Turow Zgorzelec - Trefl Sopot (Pick: Trefl win)
Total Odds=2,35, Stake=15 PLN, Potential return=35 PLN

PGE Turow Zgorzelec - Trefl Sopot (Final Result: 78:77)
Total Odds=2,35, Stake=15 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=94 PLN (-34 PLN since beginning)

Game was decided 2 seconds before the buzzer and Trefl still had a chance to win it, but one of their guards missed a simple lay up, after the ball was brought from the sidelines.

Hoping that maybe somebody tried a spread pick instead of going for a full glory.

Not a good day, but I was completely honest - it can be a short ride.

stingerro

Pick nr 8 (stage 4.):
(Europe League) FC Porto - Villarreal (Pick: Porto to win by more than 1 goal)
Total Odds=2,05, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 8 (stage 4.):
(Europe League) FC Porto - Villarreal (Pick: Porto to win by more than 1 goal)
Total Odds=2,05, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

FC Porto - Villarreal (Final Result: 5:1)
Total Odds=2,05, Stake=25 PLN, Return=52 PLN
Bank Balance=121 PLN (-7 PLN since beginning)

stingerro

Pick nr 9 (stage 3.):
(NBA) Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks (Pick: Blazers Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,58, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 9 (stage 3rd):
(NBA) Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks (Pick: Blazers Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,58, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=52 PLN

Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks (Final Result: 96:103) :mad:
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win) Total Odds=2,58, Stake=20 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=101 PLN (-27 PLN since beginning)

I still like my AFL pick, so I will use it later today in some combination once again; hopefully the other one will be a better than NBA's. Especially when once again it will be "stage 4" pick, so quite a dangerous territory for me and my tiny budget.

stingerro

Pick nr 10 (stage 4th):
(Men's Tennis) Kohlschreiber - Stepanek (Pick: Kohlschreiber Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,21, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=55 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 10 (stage 4th):
(Men's Tennis) Kohlschreiber - Stepanek (Pick: Kohlschreiber Win)
(Australian football) Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Pick: Sydney win)
Total Odds=2,21, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=55 PLN

Kohlschreiber - Stepanek (Final result: ?)
Sydney Swans - Carlton Blues (Final result: 71:87) :mad:
Total Odds=2,21, Stake=25 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=76 PLN (-52 PLN since beginning)

stingerro

Pick nr 11 (stage 5th):
(2nd Bundesliga) Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Monachium (Pick: TSV 1860 Munchen (+1)
Total Odds=2,15, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=64 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 11 (stage 5th):
(2nd Bundesliga) Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Monachium (Pick: TSV 1860 Munchen (+1)
Total Odds=2,15, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=64 PLN

Hertha Berlin - TSV 1860 Monachium (Final result: 1:2)
Total Odds=2,15, Stake=30 PLN, Return=64 PLN
Bank Balance=110 PLN (-18 PLN since beginning)

stingerro

Pick nr 12 (stage 4th):
(Belgium Football ) Standard Liege - Gent (Pick: Liege win)
(Netherland's Football) RKC Waalwijk - Roosendaal (Pick: Waalwijk win)
Total Odds=2,07, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=51 PLN

stingerro

I am not sure if anyone is following my log, but I have a question - one day after I realized that I should counter my pick for Trefl 2 minutes before end of the game. They were original an underdog at 2.50-2.35 and they were leading by 6 points 90 seconds before the end (71:77). Any guesses how high were the odds for losing opponents at that moment, which would allow me to counter my main bet? 4? 6? 8?

UrbanSea

Could have been higher,but that's a guess. Maybe 10,12?

stingerro

UrbanSea wrote: »

Could have been higher,but that's a guess. Maybe 10,12?

Okay, thanks. Need to remember about simple stuff like that next time, as it costs me money from time to time.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 12 (stage 4th):
(Belgium Football) Standard Liege - Gent (Pick: Liege win)
(Netherland's Football) RKC Waalwijk - Roosendaal (Pick: Waalwijk win)
Total Odds=2,07, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=51 PLN

Standard Liege - Gent (Final result: 1:0)
RKC Waalwijk - Roosendaal (Final result: 7:0)
Total Odds=2,07, Stake=25 PLN, Return=49 PLN (2 PLN were used for a counter bet in 80th minute)
Bank Balance=134 PLN (+6 PLN since beginning)


Nice to be again over the line. Last 10 minutes of Liege - Gent match were much more comfortable for me, after I made a tiny bet for a draw at 10.0 odds. Despite playing with one man down Gent was putting a solid pressure on hosts, so I felt it was necessary.

I think it's enough for today, hopefully tomorrow I will continue my mini-streak

stingerro

Pick nr 13 (stage 3rd):
(NASL/USL Pro) PR Islanders - Fort Lauderdale (Pick: Islanders AH -1,25)
Total Odds=2,00, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=40 PLN.

It's third time in row when I am looking for a win during the night, maybe it will happen against 13th pick. I've never heard of this league before, but reading about this match it sounds like a decent opportunity, hopefully

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 13 (stage 3rd):
(NASL/USL Pro) PR Islanders - Fort Lauderdale (Pick: Islanders AH -1,25)
Total Odds=2,00, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=40 PLN.

It's third time in row when I am looking for a win during the night, maybe it will happen against 13th pick. I've never heard of this league before, but reading about this match it sounds like a decent opportunity, hopefully

PR Islanders - Fort Lauderdale (Result: 2:2) :mad:
Total Odds=2,00, Stake=20 PLN, Potential return=40 PLN.
Bank Balance=114 PLN (-14 PLN since beginning)

Another lost bet during the night, I definitely should limit myself from betting after 10 pm Hosts were big favourites, but they were one man down and one goal down since 36th minute, so it was clear that bet was over for somebody like me who was playing AH -1.25. :mad:

stingerro

Pick nr 14 (stage 4th):
(2. Bundesliga) Ingolstadt-Aue (Pick: Home win DNB)
(Romanian Football) Sportul - TG Mures (Pick: Home win DNB)
Total Odds=2,31, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=58 PLN

stingerro

It will be a hectic day, with plenty of bets and also plenty of stuff to do in my work. So my picks will be published quite late (next around 3.30pm, 6pm and 8.30 pm). I also for 1 PLN created an accumulator, maybe I will publish specifics in a free moment.

stingerro

Pick nr 15 (stage 4th):
(Bundesliga) Hannover - Borussia M (Pick: Home win)
(Sedunda Division) Salamanca - Elche (Pick: Home win or Draw)
Total Odds=2,44, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=61 PLN

Previous bet is not over, but it looks like I will have all money back (2xDNB), or I will win part-time. So I decided to use the same amount of money for next bet.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 14 (stage 4th):
(2. Bundesliga) Ingolstadt-Aue (Pick: Home win DNB)
(Romanian Football) Sportul - TG Mures (Pick: Home win DNB)
Total Odds=2,31, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=58 PLN

Ingolstadt-Aue (Final Result - 0:0)
Sportul - TG Mures (Final Result: 1:2)
Bank Balance=89 PLN (-39 PLN since beginning)

Great :mad:. Sportul conceded 2 games in last 15 minutes and I even didn't get a refund. What a poor start.

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 15 (stage 4th):
(Bundesliga) Hannover - Borussia M (Pick: Home win)
(Sedunda Division) Salamanca - Elche (Pick: Home win or Draw)
Total Odds=2,44, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=61 PLN

Hannover - Borussia M (0:1):mad:
Salamanca - Elche (5:4)
Bank Balance=63 PLN (-65 PLN)

stingerro

Pick nr 16 (stage 5th):
(Segunda Division) Betis Sevilla - Numancia (Pick: Home win)
(Croatia Football) Istra 1961 - Varazdin (Pick: Home Win)
Total Odds=2,24, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=67 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 16 (stage 5th):
(Segunda Division) Betis Sevilla - Numancia (Pick: Home win)
(Croatia Football) Istra 1961 - Varazdin (Pick: Home Win)
Total Odds=2,24, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=67 PLN

Betis Sevilla - Numancia (Final result: 4:1)
Istra 1961 - Varazdin (Final result: 2:0)
Bank Balance=100 PLN (-28 PLN)

Once again I somehow survived going down, really disappointed with Hannover 96 result, they let me down big time.

stingerro

Pick nr 17 (stage 4th):
(MLS) Red Bull - Kansas City (Pick: Over 3 goals)
Total Odds=2,30, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=57 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 17 (stage 4th):
(MLS) Red Bull - Kansas City (Pick: Over 3 goals)
Total Odds=2,30, Stake=25 PLN, Potential return=57 PLN

Red Bull - Kansas City (Final Result: 1:0) :mad:
Bank Balance=75 PLN (-53 PLN)

stingerro

Bet365 server went down just when I was making a pick for games starting at 3pm :mad:

stingerro

Pick nr 18 (stage 5th):
(Premier League) Arsenal - Manchester United (Pick: MU or Draw)
(Serie A) Sampdoria - Brescia (Pick: Under 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=2,16, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=65 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 18 (stage 5th):
(Premier League) Arsenal - Manchester United (Pick: MU or Draw)
(Serie A) Sampdoria - Brescia (Pick: Under 2,5 goals)
Total Odds=2,16, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=65 PLN

Arsenal - Manchester United (Final result: 1:0) :mad:
Sampdoria - Brescia (Final result: 3:3) :mad:
Bank Balance=45 PLN (- 83 PLN)

Misery continues, one more wrong bet and I'm out.

stingerro

Pick nr 19 (stage 6th):
(MLB) Cleveland Indians - Detroit Tigers (Pick: Cleveland)
(Serie A) Steaua Bucarest - Gloria Bistrita (Pick: Steaua)
Total Odds=2,33, Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=81 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 19 (stage 6th):
(MLB) Cleveland Indians - Detroit Tigers (Pick: Cleveland)
(Serie A) Steaua Bucarest - Gloria Bistrita (Pick: Steaua)
Total Odds=2,33, Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=81 PLN

Cleveland Indians - Detroit Tigers (Final result: 5:4)
Steaua Bucarest - Gloria Bistrita (Final result: 3:1)
Bank Balance=91 PLN (- 37 PLN)

Ufff, that was close. But I still am in the game and on top of that maybe I finally found a decent MLB tipster. Hopefully he won't cool off anytime soon.

alscrxangels

That was close. That's the worst thing about following systems. You follow them to the letter of the law but when you get a bad run it seriously hurts.

By the way are you doing two of them at the same time....or even more?

stingerro

alscrxangels wrote: »

That was close. That's the worst thing about following systems. You follow them to the letter of the law but when you get a bad run it seriously hurts.

By the way are you doing two of them at the same time....or even more?

Hah, 2nd outside post in my log . I know about possible negatives of this system (as well as others), but I somehow like it doing this way. Even if results aren't supporting my feelings...yet

It has also to be mentioned that I should have money in my bank to be ready for around 10 stages and I have only for 6, so its even more risky. But if I won't improve with my picks selection no amount of money will help me.

Sorry, but don't understand your 2nd paragraph, two of what?

alscrxangels

Sorry that wasn't the clearist now was it. I looked back on all the threads from the beginning and I see that I had not read them right. Got confused with the overlaps.

So when a bet comes off you only go back down to the previous stage instead of going back to stage one. Understand the principle of it alright. Done something like that before and I found it pretty crap sort of feeling when betting. you needed to be pretty good with the bets but one bad run would end it all. That's what got me in the end as well was the fact that I was doing something with half the Bank or what I was suppose to be using.

But it is whatever suits you. Some people just keep backing flat and never recoop the losses and do fine where as other people, usually with a good bank and patience can build up the profit slowly over time. I tend to do an even lighter version of your system. Works for me but it can be hard to keep the dicipline when chasing losses.

Will keep an eye on you to see how you get on with. Best of Luck.

stingerro

alscrxangels wrote: »

Will keep an eye on you to see how you get on with. Best of Luck.

Thanks, appreciate it. Especially when I can be bankrupt when you will be reading my reply .

I know my posts are very late, so decided to change it a little bit and make a short preview of games I plan to bet on (if I won't go into red earlier of course...):

Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Cardiff win HT/FT) - I've checked results from this season and when Cardiff won a game, they were leading at HT 13 out of 19 matches. Good enough for me.

Angelholm - Qviding (Angelhorm win HT/FT or their win with a handicap)

Waiting for play on today's 2.Bundesliga game (Energie Cottbus - Augsburg), not sure if it will happen though.

stingerro

Pick nr 20 (stage 5th):
(nPower Championship) Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Pick: Cardiff Win HT/FT)
Total Odds=1,95, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=59 PLN

stingerro

stingerro wrote: »

Pick nr 20 (stage 5th):
(nPower Championship) Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Pick: Cardiff Win HT/FT)
Total Odds=1,95, Stake=30 PLN, Potential return=59 PLN

Cardiff - Middlesbrough (Final result: 0:3) :mad:
Total Odds=1,95, Stake=30 PLN, Return=0 PLN
Bank Balance=61 PLN (- 67 PLN)

Wow, that was brutal. Terrible 1st half by Cardiff and they are down 0:3 against Boro. Hosts are playing 3rd goalkeeper today and he is not very good.

stingerro

Pick nr 21 (stage 6th):
(2. Bundesliga) Energie Cattbus - Augsburg (Pick: Cottbus +0,25)
Total Odds=1,83,Stake=35 PLN, Potential return=63 PLN