April 2011 Boards forecast contest

mickger844posts

IMT 9.9 MAX 21.7 MIN 0.0 PRC 82 SUN 127 MUL 0.0mm

dasa29

IMT ...8.3 MAX ...20.5 MIN ..-2 PRC ..95% SUN ...115% MUL 4mm

Joe Public

11.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 0

Dust off the BBQ:)

Speak Now

9.8 ..... 22 ..... -3 ..... 125 ..... 95 ..... 7

John mac

an nuts , just read the forecast..

OUTLOOK ... Rest of the week very mild or warm, highs could reach 20 C in places

:D

jd

8.3 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.5 ..... 120 ..... 92 ..... 1.5

kindredspirit

8.9 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 100 ..... 120 ..... 0

thetonynator

Cutting it a bit finer than usual.:P

9.3 ..... 20.58..... -1.0 ..... 80 ..... 120 ..... 0

Danno

7.7 ..... 21.7 ..... -4.6 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... 4.7

waterways

8.6 ..... 22.3 ..... -2.3 ..... 92 ..... 120 ..... 5.0

Sponge Bob

8.3....22.7... -1.6....115..... 117.... 0.0mm

M.T. Cranium

Just a reminder, we have now reached the "late penalty" stage, entries are still accepted with the late penalty (see first post in thread).

M.T. Cranium

April forecasts
____________________

FORECASTER ..... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Mul.24
_______________________________________________________________

Joe Public ......... 11.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 0
M.T. Cranium .... 10.7 ..... 22.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 2.2
mickger844posts ..9.9 ..... 21.7 ...... 0.0 ..... 082 ..... 127 ..... 0.0
fizzycyst ........... 9.9 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.2 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 3
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 9.8 ..... 22.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 7
snowstreams ...... 9.6 ..... 21.0 ..... +2.0 ..... 094 ..... 120 ..... 0
dacogawa .......... 9.4 ..... 21.1 ..... -1.7 ..... 110 ..... 107 ..... 0
thetonynator ...... 9.3 ..... 20.6 ..... -1.0 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 0
nilhg ................. 9.3 ..... 22.5 ..... -3.2 ..... 090 ..... 131 ..... 0
MiNdGaM3 .......... 9.2 ..... 21.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 084 ..... 118 ..... 0.9
H2UMrsRobinson .. 9.2 ..... 20.2 ..... +3.2 ..... 113 ..... 089 ..... 10.6
BEASTERLY ........ 9.1 ..... 18.7 ..... -0.9 ..... 085 ..... 135 ..... 3.7
Deep Easterly ..... 9.0 ..... 20.9 ..... -2.6 ..... 108 ..... 112 ..... 2.3
Fionagus ........... 8.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.9 ..... 112 ..... 125 ..... 0.3
kindredspirit ....... 8.9 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 100 ..... 120 ..... 0
SeaFields .......... 8.9 ..... 22.2 ..... +1.5 ..... 125 ..... 090 ..... 3
Rebelbrowser ..... 8.8 ..... 19.1 ..... -2.1 ..... 097 ..... 128 ..... 0
John mac .......... 8.7 ..... 19.1 ..... -2.0 ..... 120 ..... 143 ..... 2.4
waterways ........ 8.6 ..... 22.3 ..... -2.3 ..... 092 ..... 120 ..... 5.0

Con Sensus ....... 8.6 ..... 21.1 ..... -1.6 ..... 100 ..... 115 ..... 1.2

TheInquisitor ..... 8.6 ..... 21.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 136 ..... 097 ..... 0
redsunset ......... 8.5 ..... 20.0 ..... +0.6 ..... 090 ..... 160 ..... 1.0
pauldry ............. 8.5 ..... 20.3 ..... -3.0 ..... 115 ..... 125 ..... 0.8
nacho libre ........ 8.5 ..... 21.4 ..... +0.7 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 5.0
talkabout .......... 8.4 ..... 21.9 ..... -4.2 ..... 123 ..... 095 ..... 1.2
Tae laidir ........... 8.4 ..... 19.9 ..... -1.8 ..... 139 ..... 092 ..... 0.4
rameire ............. 8.4 ..... 21.1 ..... -0.6 ..... 098 ..... 114 ..... 3
jd .................... 8.3 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.5 ..... 120 ..... 092 ..... 1.5
Sponge Bob ....... 8.3 ..... 22.7 ..... -1.6 ..... 115 ..... 117 ..... 0.0
dasa29 ............. 8.3 ..... 20.5 ..... -2.0 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... 4
homolumo .......... 8.3 ..... 20.9 ..... -1.5 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... 2.8
200motels ......... 8.3 ..... 22.5 ..... -1.6 ..... 080 ..... 129 ..... 4.5
Harps ............... 8.2 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 125 ..... 090 ..... 3
Strasser ............ 8.2 ..... 21.4 ..... -1.1 ..... 105 ..... 094 ..... 5
DOCARCH .......... 8.2 ..... 21.3 ..... -1.2 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 0.0
ch750536 .......... 8.1 ..... 21.6 ..... +0.5 ..... 086 ..... 106 ..... 0
Hellboy99 .......... 8.0 ..... 20.0 ..... -2.7 ..... 081 ..... 152 ..... 0
Danno .............. 7.7 ..... 21.7 ..... -4.6 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... 4.7

________________________________________________________

Note that late entries are still accepted and will be incorporated into the table subject to late penalties.

The bonus question (rainfall 24th Mullingar) had 13 zero rainfall entries and the consensus is the median value (as with all other consensus stats).

jambofc

7.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -1.6 ..... 110 ..... 125 ..... 1.2

late again

Su Campu

Shíte, I forgot to enter this before now..... :rolleyes:

8.3 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 105 ..... 95 ..... 0.0

4Sheets

8.0 ..... 18.0 ..... -3 ..... 95 ..... 105 ..... 0.0

Hope its not too late

M.T. Cranium

Three additional entries then ... marked " for potential late penalty.

April forecasts
____________________

FORECASTER ..... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Mul.24
_______________________________________________________________

Joe Public ......... 11.9 ..... 22.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 0
M.T. Cranium .... 10.7 ..... 22.0 ..... -0.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... 2.2
mickger844posts ..9.9 ..... 21.7 ...... 0.0 ..... 082 ..... 127 ..... 0.0
fizzycyst ........... 9.9 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.2 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 3
Jerry Seinfeld ..... 9.8 ..... 22.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 125 ..... 095 ..... 7
snowstreams ...... 9.6 ..... 21.0 ..... +2.0 ..... 094 ..... 120 ..... 0
dacogawa .......... 9.4 ..... 21.1 ..... -1.7 ..... 110 ..... 107 ..... 0
thetonynator ...... 9.3 ..... 20.6 ..... -1.0 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 0
nilhg ................. 9.3 ..... 22.5 ..... -3.2 ..... 090 ..... 131 ..... 0
MiNdGaM3 .......... 9.2 ..... 21.9 ..... -1.9 ..... 084 ..... 118 ..... 0.9
H2UMrsRobinson .. 9.2 ..... 20.2 ..... +3.2 ..... 113 ..... 089 ..... 10.6
BEASTERLY ........ 9.1 ..... 18.7 ..... -0.9 ..... 085 ..... 135 ..... 3.7
Deep Easterly ..... 9.0 ..... 20.9 ..... -2.6 ..... 108 ..... 112 ..... 2.3
Fionagus ........... 8.9 ..... 22.1 ..... -1.9 ..... 112 ..... 125 ..... 0.3
kindredspirit ....... 8.9 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 100 ..... 120 ..... 0
SeaFields .......... 8.9 ..... 22.2 ..... +1.5 ..... 125 ..... 090 ..... 3
Rebelbrowser ..... 8.8 ..... 19.1 ..... -2.1 ..... 097 ..... 128 ..... 0
John mac .......... 8.7 ..... 19.1 ..... -2.0 ..... 120 ..... 143 ..... 2.4
waterways ........ 8.6 ..... 22.3 ..... -2.3 ..... 092 ..... 120 ..... 5.0
TheInquisitor ..... 8.6 ..... 21.0 ..... -7.0 ..... 136 ..... 097 ..... 0
redsunset ......... 8.5 ..... 20.0 ..... +0.6 ..... 090 ..... 160 ..... 1.0
pauldry ............. 8.5 ..... 20.3 ..... -3.0 ..... 115 ..... 125 ..... 0.8

Con Sensus ....... 8.5 ..... 21.1 ..... -1.6 ..... 100 ..... 115 ..... 1.2

nacho libre ........ 8.5 ..... 21.4 ..... +0.7 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 5.0
talkabout .......... 8.4 ..... 21.9 ..... -4.2 ..... 123 ..... 095 ..... 1.2
Tae laidir ........... 8.4 ..... 19.9 ..... -1.8 ..... 139 ..... 092 ..... 0.4
rameire ............. 8.4 ..... 21.1 ..... -0.6 ..... 098 ..... 114 ..... 3
jd .................... 8.3 ..... 21.8 ..... -1.5 ..... 120 ..... 092 ..... 1.5
Sponge Bob ....... 8.3 ..... 22.7 ..... -1.6 ..... 115 ..... 117 ..... 0.0
dasa29 ............. 8.3 ..... 20.5 ..... -2.0 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... 4
homolumo .......... 8.3 ..... 20.9 ..... -1.5 ..... 115 ..... 105 ..... 2.8
200motels ......... 8.3 ..... 22.5 ..... -1.6 ..... 080 ..... 129 ..... 4.5
Su Campu* ....... 8.3 ..... 22.0 ..... -1.5 ..... 105 ..... 095 ..... 0.0
Harps ............... 8.2 ..... 19.8 ..... -1.9 ..... 125 ..... 090 ..... 3
Strasser ............ 8.2 ..... 21.4 ..... -1.1 ..... 105 ..... 094 ..... 5
DOCARCH .......... 8.2 ..... 21.3 ..... -1.2 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 0.0
ch750536 .......... 8.1 ..... 21.6 ..... +0.5 ..... 086 ..... 106 ..... 0
Hellboy99 .......... 8.0 ..... 20.0 ..... -2.7 ..... 081 ..... 152 ..... 0
4Sheets* .......... 8.0 ..... 18.0 ..... -3.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 0.0
jambofc* .......... 7.9 ..... 18.1 ..... -1.6 ..... 110 ..... 125 ..... 1.2
Danno .............. 7.7 ..... 21.7 ..... -4.6 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... 4.7

________________________________________________________

* subject to late penalty

With the three additional entries, there are slight changes to the Con Sensus entry.

Okay then, entries are closed unless we have a regular contest entrant who wants to cash in their one annual late-late entry today. This has to be somebody with 2/3 or more entries already this year. Not sure if we're missing anyone on that basis.

pauldry

IMT is currently at an impressive 9.7c and will continue to be high for the next 7 days possibly getting as high as 11c by midmonth.

There may be a slow fall in it after this

pauldry

Rainfall in Claremorris has past the 100% mark for the month after 5days! :eek:

M.T. Cranium

The first seven days of the month ...

IMT .... 11.1 C

rainfall ... 185% of normal

sunshine ... 88% of normal

Lumi

Valentia reported a max of 21C at 1500 & 1600hrs today




Source: Met Éireann

M.T. Cranium

I think we have new extreme highest and lowest temps on the same day, 21.2 at Valentia, and 0.4 at Mullingar.

The diurnal range at Mullingar was a whopping 18.5 degrees, which must be one of the higher values ever seen in Ireland, at a guess.

By the looks of the models, we had better squeeze a lot of warmth out of the weekend if we went high for the IMT, because the seven to ten day average after this weekend looks around 5-6 C.

There are some signs of warmer weather after the 19th or 20th again.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The diurnal range at Mullingar was a whopping 18.5 degrees, which must be one of the higher values ever seen in Ireland, at a guess.

Certainly is the highest daily diurnal range since 2009 at Mullingar at least M.T. Going just by my daily logs of daily data from the Met Eireann daily data source (of which I only collect for the 5 statons used in the IMT competition, that is: Claremorris/Mullingar/Oak Park/Shannon/Casement) Mullingar's diurnal range yesterday of 18.5c was the highest of any of the IMT stations since January 1st 2009.


A quick chart showing daily temperature diurnal range at Mullingar from 2009 up to 8th April 2011:


Data C/O:
Met Éireann

In 2010, the highest daily diurnal range of 17.7c occurred at Claremorris on the 20th June: Max 21.8c / Min 4.1c

in 2009, the highest daily diurnal range of 18.0c occurred at Oak Park on the 2nd June: Max 26.8c / Min 8.8.


I'd say that the in any one year, the average absolute highest diurnal range at any of the IMT stations is about 16c /17c, a range that is more likely to occur between April & June than at any other time of year.

Joe Public

71.0 hours of sunshine at Dublin Airport yesterday:cool:

M.T. Cranium

IMT at 11.2 C after eleven days. A slow drift down is now expected for the rest of this week. This could prove to be the high water mark so to speak, at least everyone but Joe hopes so at this point. :cool:

Joe Public

The rest are in denial.

dacogawa

Joe Public wrote: »

71.0 hours of sunshine at Dublin Airport yesterday:cool:

24 hours in a day ? sun also goes down ?

Only being mean because of your 11.9, cool it down now mother nature :cool:

pauldry

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Northern_Ireland.txt

Just looking at this. It may help everyone in future in the forecast contests.:)(watch out leaders!!) Was just seeing what this April has to beat to be the warmest.

Does anyone know if theres something like this for the Republic?

M.T. Cranium

Since we've been using this IMT value, I have noticed that it often falls within half a degree (C) of the "CET" or Central England Temperature that is used on Net-weather for their monthly forecast contest (where they just predict that one element, we have a much nicer one here).

For example, in that really cold December, the IMT was -0.4 C, the CET finished on -0.7 C. In January, if memory serves, the values were 3.3 and 3.7 while the past two months have also been fairly close. So if you want an overview of the range of CET values for a rough guide of what to expect, this can be found here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

So far this month, the CET is 11.6 C compared to 10.9 C for the same period for the IMT. There is a tendency for the daily posted running value of the CET to be adjusted down by 0.2 to 0.4 deg after review of a larger set of stations in rural areas after each month ends, so this comparison currently may be even closer than it appears.

The 2007 value of the CET was 11.2 C and so this month is running at a slightly higher value. To show how much a month can cool off despite a warm start, I found in the daily data this example: April 1778, the first 13 days averaged 10.9, the month ended at 8.2 C. That came from a 17-day average of only 6.2 C from 14th to 30th.

This month, I believe the running values of both IMT and CET will come down into the range of 9.5 to 10.5 at some point but they could rebound back towards the record values. I would leave it to DE to inform us as to the record value of the IMT from presumably 2007 (1949 also had a very warm April).

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This month, I believe the running values of both IMT and CET will come down into the range of 9.5 to 10.5 at some point but they could rebound back towards the record values. I would leave it to DE to inform us as to the record value of the IMT from presumably 2007 (1949 also had a very warm April).

Chart showing IMT for the period 1st-13th April both this year and in 2007:



This April is currently running at 1.1c above the IMT value for the same period in 2007. The finishing April IMT in 2007 was 10.95c but remains to be seen whether the current April will finish as warm as this. (just to note, data from Kilkenny is used for 2007 instead of Oak Park but unlikely to make much, if any, difference)


Map C/O IRI/LDEO




Regarding 1949, data from all of the IMT stations does not extend that far back (at least in the public domain), but just going by data from Valentia alone, the mean temperature for April 1949 was 10.0c at the station. April 1945 was warmer at 10.7c. In 1987, it reached 10.6c and the warmest April mean of all, 11.0c, occurred in both 1997 and 2007. Probably just a coincidence that warm April's mostly occur in the 7th (or is that the 8th) year of any partiuclar decade!




Data C/O: Met Eireann / Ogimet / KNMI