Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

FitzjamesHorse

Dan
I wish I was more optimistic about the 4x400 Relay.
Im really surprised that some big nations have not qualified or shown their hand.
Seemingly four countries have 3 qualifiers in the Individual event (Britain, Jamaica, Russia, USA) and another (Ukraine) has 2 qualifiers.
Italy and Germany just 1 qualifier.
Now Id be amazed if I saw just one Italian or German on the starting line.
And as far as I can gather traditionally strong nations like France, Cuba, Sweden, Nigeria, Canada and Australia dont have a qualifier at A standard.
I suspect our girls might get swept away in a rush of events over next threeweeks or so.
I hope I am totally wrong.

Dan man

FitzjamesHorse wrote: »

Dan
I wish I was more optimistic about the 4x400 Relay.
Im really surprised that some big nations have not qualified or shown their hand.
Seemingly four countries have 3 qualifiers in the Individual event (Britain, Jamaica, Russia, USA) and another (Ukraine) has 2 qualifiers.
Italy and Germany just 1 qualifier.
Now Id be amazed if I saw just one Italian or German on the starting line.
And as far as I can gather traditionally strong nations like France, Cuba, Sweden, Nigeria, Canada and Australia dont have a qualifier at A standard.
I suspect our girls might get swept away in a rush of events over next threeweeks or so.
I hope I am totally wrong.

You should be more optimistic, there is little chance they will drop 4 places in the rankings, those nations like Sweden and Australia are not going to surpass us and most of the other nations you mention like Cuba, Ukraine, Germany and Italy are already ranked ahead of the Irish team so they cannot overtake us. I'm extremely confident that they will qualify, trust me it looks really good.

Here are the latest standings:
http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/06/44/08/64408_PDF_English.pdf

Dodge

I think all the canoeing places have been dished out, meaning Egan misses out. Cycling too is nearly all set. She'd need Tripartite invitation and maybe her track medal will squeeze her in

Apart from invitation/technicalities we're really only looking at the Track and Field athletes being added now. Gillick has had 2 awful races (3 seconds off standard, 44 seconds off his best) so must be a doubt. Proper would need to jump an irish record just to get the B standard. Unlikely

I think Amy Foster could get in at 200m though. She's close enough to make a great effort if she gets the right conditions. Barr too is improving quickly. Huge PB already this year. Hopefully she gets the nod.

Rose-Anne galligan and Mary Cullen are both clss athletes. Hopefullt they can shake off their injury problems and get the standard.

FitzjamesHorse

I hope youre right Dan.
I suppose Im putting too much stock on a Nations "reputation" for being good. No big nation has a divine right to be there. And I think just being in the best 16 in the world is a huge achievement.
Not seen mention of Orla Drumm. Any chance?

Dan man

Dodge wrote: »

I think all the canoeing places have been dished out, meaning Egan misses out. Cycling too is nearly all set. She'd need Tripartite invitation and maybe her track medal will squeeze her in

Apart from invitation/technicalities we're really only looking at the Track and Field athletes being added now. Gillick has had 2 awful races (3 seconds off standard, 44 seconds off his best) so must be a doubt. Proper would need to jump an irish record just to get the B standard. Unlikely

I think Amy Foster could get in at 200m though. She's close enough to make a great effort if she gets the right conditions. Barr too is improving quickly. Huge PB already this year. Hopefully she gets the nod.

Rose-Anne galligan and Mary Cullen are both clss athletes. Hopefullt they can shake off their injury problems and get the standard.

Athletics won't be the only sport to yield more qualifiers, we are bound to pick up more places in eventing.
There are no tripartite positions in women's road race so I think Caroline Ryan has no chance of making London. I think you're right about the canoe sprint though.
Gillick almost certainly won't make London, and Kelly Proper is very unlikely to qualify also.

Dan man

FitzjamesHorse wrote: »

I hope youre right Dan.
I suppose Im putting too much stock on a Nations "reputation" for being good. No big nation has a divine right to be there. And I think just being in the best 16 in the world is a huge achievement.
Not seen mention of Orla Drumm. Any chance?

Orla Drumm has a chance over 1,500m, not likely but she has a chance. Those I listed have the best chances IMO.
And yea I think you are putting too much emphasis on reputation...I'm a huge follower of athletics and I can tell you that those countries like Nigeria, Cuba, Germany and Italy are not so strong anymore in terms of 400m. Besides, all of which are already ahead of the Irish team so they can't affect our qualification chances as it stands. Ukraine have 3 qualifiers too for the individual 400m and they too are ranked above us so can't overtake us.

Dodge

FitzjamesHorse wrote: »

And I think just being in the best 16 in the world is a huge achievement.

it is

I've gone throught the likely challengers at the top of this page

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056181796&page=64

Dodge

Dan man wrote: »

Athletics won't be the only sport to yield more qualifiers, we are bound to pick up more places in eventing.

yeah, sorry when I said more qualifiers, I meant apart from those we know about wating on invites/re-allocation (ie eventing, Chris Bryan, Joe Ward, maybe ven Arthur lanigan O'Keeffe (outsider))

Truman Burbank

Dan man wrote: »

Orla Drumm has a chance over 1,500m, not likely but she has a chance. Those I listed have the best chances IMO.
And yea I think you are putting too much emphasis on reputation...I'm a huge follower of athletics and I can tell you that those countries like Nigeria, Cuba, Germany and Italy are not so strong anymore in terms of 400m. Besides, all of which are already ahead of the Irish team so they can't affect our qualification chances as it stands. Ukraine have 3 qualifiers too for the individual 400m and they too are ranked above us so can't overtake us.

No way, I mean you can't be serious?
Have you thought about entering Mastermind? Like, seriously

Truman Burbank

FitzjamesHorse wrote: »

I hope youre right Dan.
I suppose Im putting too much stock on a Nations "reputation" for being good. No big nation has a divine right to be there. And I think just being in the best 16 in the world is a huge achievement.
Not seen mention of Orla Drumm. Any chance?

Following this thread, I've been amazed at the positivity all along for the women's relay team. It's incredible for all involved that it's come(ing) to fruition. I never quite understood either what happened to the big nations this time around. What went wrong for them? What went right for us? Is this a case of individual grassroots follow-thru, obviously with highly dedicated coaches, or did they set out (like Marathon Mission say) to create a relay team nurturing potential team mates along the way as an entity??

Dan man

Truman Burbank wrote: »

No way, I mean you can't be serious?
Have you thought about entering Mastermind? Like, seriously

Host: And for your specialist subject?
Dan: World Athletics 1992-present!!

Anything Olympic related and I'm interested...I'm sure most of you are the same.

Dan man

Truman Burbank wrote: »

Following this thread, I've been amazed at the positivity all along for the women's relay team. It's incredible for all involved that it's come(ing) to fruition. I never quite understood either what happened to the big nations this time around. What went wrong for them? What went right for us? Is this a case of individual grassroots follow-thru, obviously with highly dedicated coaches, or did they set out (like Marathon Mission say) to create a relay team nurturing potential team mates along the way as an entity??

Certainly not...the AAI aren't too great at organising these things, in fact they've been really poor in terms of attempting to get relay teams to London. When the women's team broke the National Record they decided to focus solely on that team instead of giving the other sprint teams a chance also....they probably would not have qualified but there's no chance if they don't race.
The reason our 4x400m relay team are in the top 16 is because other countries aren't so strong at the minute...only 5 countries have more than 1 qualifier for the Olympics so with Joanne qualified and a few other runners of a reasonable standard we always had a chance.

Dan man

By the way, Irish 400m runner Brian Gregan has set a new PB of 45.91secs today, just 0.01 secs of the B-standard time of 45.90secs. He's highly unlikely to get the really tough A-standard time of 45.30secs but this was his season opener so he should get quicker. I had thought I read he was injured so didn't include him in the list, but I guess he's in good shape. If he can get the B-time at least then he'll give himself a chance as no other Irish runners have the A standard. It would still rely on the OCI and AAI relenting on their policy of only sending A-standard athletes.

Truman Burbank

Dan man wrote: »

Host: And for your specialist subject?
Dan: World Athletics 1992-present!!

Anything Olympic related and I'm interested...I'm sure most of you are the same.

For the general knowledge rounds just answer 'Puccini' and 'A Flock of Seagulls' alternately, it's bound to be correct at some stage.

Truman Burbank

Dan man wrote: »

Certainly not...the AAI aren't too great at organising these things, in fact they've been really poor in terms of attempting to get relay teams to London. When the women's team broke the National Record they decided to focus solely on that team instead of giving the other sprint teams a chance also....they probably would not have qualified but there's no chance if they don't race.
The reason our 4x400m relay team are in the top 16 is because other countries aren't so strong at the minute...only 5 countries have more than 1 qualifier for the Olympics so with Joanne qualified and a few other runners of a reasonable standard we always had a chance.

Love your opening conviction there. I'd like to know, when the dust has settled on This Olympics, why The AAI weren't in the driving seat on this, it seems like the opportunity fell on their lap, and what their future plans for qualification (if any) are. And I'd also like to know why "other countries aren't so strong at the minute".

Dodge

In fairness I'm sure AI would love to do more for relays but funds aren't exactly abundant. To be fair they have funded the 4x400 a little too

Dan man

It's not so much that the other countries have suddenly become really weak...the current rankings of the Irish team would have also qualified them for the Beijing Olympics (as 14th best qualifier) and their National Record would have been enough to finish in the top 10 in those Games. I think it was a similar situation in Athens 2004. Before this, there were no entry times for the relays if I recall correctly.
The Irish deserve huge credit if they qualify and their ranking times are really decent. Nigeria and Germany used to be very strong but as I said they are ranked ahead of Ireland anyway so that's got nothing to do with why Ireland are in the top 16. Poland are not as fast as a few years ago, but these things tend to go in cycles.

Ireland's national record is much quicker than the Swedish record also so it's not strange that we're ahead of them. The Irish national record is strong and to date would have been enough to qualify for all Olympics since this ranking system was introduced.

K_1

Dan man wrote: »

Not sure if your crediting me with the list but just in case I should point out it was Dodge's list. Thanks anyway!

Oops i see a list and assume you wrote it, sorry dodge!

Great work both of ye anyway :P

feargale

For the general knowledge rounds just answer 'Puccini'
"Poitini" if the quiz is in Connemara.
'

knockcon

Our Olympic boxers look to be in reasonable touch at an international event in France. Some very strong performances including 2 wins from 2 for Joe ward. I'd say the lad is just itching to find out his fate. Michael conlin had three wins from three. JJ nevin did suffer a defeat though. Hopefully it's just the run out he needs pre-Olympics to dust off some cobwebs.

Dan man

knockcon wrote: »

Our Olympic boxers look to be in reasonable touch at an international event in France. Some very strong performances including 2 wins from 2 for Joe ward. I'd say the lad is just itching to find out his fate. Michael conlin had three wins from three. JJ nevin did suffer a defeat though. Hopefully it's just the run out he needs pre-Olympics to dust off some cobwebs.

John Joe Nevin actually lost 2 of his 3 fights, losing to both the German and French fighters. That's the worrying thing about Nevin, he's capable of beating anyone but he gets beaten too often. Having said that it's not a disaster or anything as it's only preparation for London and he was up against very good opposition in Schmidt and Azzedine but I'm sure he's disappointed with his performance.
Michael Conlan got another superb victory, beating the Olympic silver medallist Oubaali from France and on French turf....he also beat the French fighter at the Worlds in Baku to qualify for London. Three wins out of three, excellent stuff against decent opponents. I think he's a great shout for a medal in London.

Dodge

New RTE series; "London Calling"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG0n0NTlDa0&feature=youtu.be

Dan man

Joe Ward is more hopeful than optimistic over his chances of getting the invitation place for London:

http://www.westmeathindependent.ie/news/roundup/articles/2012/06/13/4010867-decision-imminent-on-wards-olympic-fatebr/

Skid

The Irish Times Sports Facebook page is reporting

Very disappointing news that the hopes of participating in the London Olympic Games in July are all but gone for Irish light-heavyweight champion Joe Ward.
Johnny Watterson has the story in The Irish Times today.

https://www.facebook.com/irishtimessport

No more detail, presumably the story will be in Thurday's Print edition.

A great shame for Joe Ward if this report is correct.

Dan man

Skid wrote: »

The Irish Times Sports Facebook page is reporting



https://www.facebook.com/irishtimessport

No more detail, presumably the story will be in Thurday's Print edition.

A great shame for Joe Ward if this report is correct.

That's very sad if it is the case. I presume they're right in what they are saying if they are ready to go out with the story.

Not a big shock but still gutting.

Dan man

Here's the report...there still seems to be a small glimmer of hope:

http://m.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0614/1224317876692.html?via=othersport

The following quote offers some sort of encouragement, however slim or misplaced it might prove to be in the end:

One glimmer of hope is the International Federation can also make a recommendation for inclusion. However indications are the heavily-politicised decision-making process may also end in disappointment. Apparently there are two unofficial lists in circulation in Lausanne from the IABA, one which has Ward’s name included and the other which does not. It was suggested by the source Ward’s expectations should not lean too heavily on being nominated by the governing body of the sport.

They mention IABA in that quote when they actually mean the AIBA. Also, it is worth remembering that the Tripartite Commission could never consider Ward for the wildcard place, the avenue he would benefit from would be if the AIBA offered him the invitation place that the Tripartite Commission cannot distribute to a so-called developing nation. Hopefully that is what the "two lists" remark is referring to, one list for Tripartite Commission places and the other list for the places that had to go back to the AIBA because the Tripartite Commission was unable to allocate the spot.

Hope we get total clarification soon, this fiasco has gone on far enough.

Dodge

https://twitter.com/openwatersource/status/213134922578268160

New Zealand officially refuse quota place

Dan man

Steven Colvert was within 2 hundredths of a second off qualifying for the Olympics as he ran 20.57secs for the 200m in Slovenia. The A-time of 20.55secs seems to be within his grasp now especially when you consider he was running into a slight headwind (-0.7m/s).

Cosmo Kramer

Great stuff from Colvert alright. You'd have to fancy him to finish off the job from there between now and the cut off.

Dan man

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Great stuff from Colvert alright. You'd have to fancy him to finish off the job from there between now and the cut off.

He's off to a meet in Sweden this weekend for another crack at it and he'll have a golden opportunity at the European Championships in Helsinki if needs be (depending on suitable weather conditions of course) so you'd have to give him a big shout of making the Olympic team.