Fresh Start Ante-Post

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I really should call it something other than bank....

Loss: 26pts

Haha I still have it'profit' even when losing,just with a minus sign :pac:

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Ground cost me dear today. Hopefully Albertas Run goes for the Ryanair tomorrow. Need that to save this thread.

Chuck a load of water on the track on Thursday night and Pandorama might stand a chance of even turning up.

Loss: 43pts

Should actually be

Loss:[/B] 44.5pts

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Ryanair Chase

Albertas Run 4 pts ew @ 10/1 Bet365 (1/4 Odds, 3 Places, NRNB)


I harbour doubts, however slight, that Albertas stil might turn up in the Ryanair and I've taken the NRNB concession at Bet365 which I always planned to. He is made for the race and showed that last year. His Cheltenham record is fantastic including the festival. Jonjo is coming out of the doldrums with 3 winners recently after a horrible run of things in January and February. As a past winner of the race he looks over priced even at 10/1 and now that I can get the stake back on him I'm steaming in again for what was my best bet of the festival last year and is again this year should he take up his destined engagement in the Ryanair. Kalahari King, Poquelin and Riverside Theatre will give him the most to do and its actually Riverside Theatre that I rate as the biggest danger but he's short enough now. Kalahari King will need to prove his stamina because its not easy for a 2m horse stepping up in the Ryanair, stamina is hugely important and Riverside Theatre has proven his in the King George.

My forecast would be:

1. Albertas Run
2. Riverside Theatre
3. Poquelin

Albertas Run Ryanair 4 ew @ 16/1 Stan James (1/4 Odds, 3 Places) [21/1/11]

Returns 50pts & 80pts

Lost 2pts on Kempes but I can let that slide

Profit: 83.5

x PyRo

Well done. Glad he went to the Ryanair eh?

Nulty

Pandorama should have been withdrawn. Disappointed about that.

Profit: 65.5

Nulty

Grand National

(All prices are NRNB, and 5 Places)


State Of Play has finished 3rd and 2nd in the race the last 2 years and while he is getting older its unlikely hes any worse than he was 12 months ago. The worry is hes not been seen since last years race but that is by design. He'll be fresh and ready for the race and gets in off 3lbs lower making him 9lbs better off with last years winner. Last year he had only 1 "race" between his Nationals and he was pulled up so a clear run will arguably in his favour rather than being primed for a race midseason he gets a long break and a steady build up to a race he excells in.

2pts ew @ 25/1 Victor Chandler


Chief Dan George is a proven stayer and one that comes into his best form at this time of the season. He's a Grade 1 Novice hurdle winner and 5th in the Scottish National over 4 miles 1/2 a furlong. Its usuaally a horse with a touch of class that wins the national and Chief Dan George has a touch of class. He knows how to win with 2 wins in each of his last two seasons though is without one this season. He was 8 lengths behind Ballabriggs in the Premier Chase aat Kelso in March giving him 2lbs and will be getting 2lbs from him in the National. The ground was not suitable for CDG that day though and there seems to be a big discrepancy in the prices between the two with Ballabriggs as short as 12/1. There is definite value to be had here and while maybe Ballabriggs should be a touch bigger price, CDG should certainly be short. The one caveat is CDGs fall at Cheltenham this year, I doubt he was 100% for that race with the National being his main target. I think he's a big enough price to warrant an eachway bet.

2pts ew @ 33/1 Bet365


Becauseicouldntsee is a pretty unexposed horse and has been improving over fences through his career. He's shown he stays over 4 miles when second in the National Hunt Chase at last years Cheltenham Festival. Connections are sure this further distance will suit him and he has a very capable partner in Davy Russell. He's finished in the first two in 5 of his 7 chase starts and as an 8 year old should still have more to give. His last run was very decent when chasing Majectic Concorde home over 3m in the Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas festival. There is obvious queries as to how he'll take too the National Fences but he is a pretty careful jumper at thee beginning of his races and improves as he warms to the task. His level of unexposure makes him hugely appealing and at around 25/1 he could easily improve again enough to go very close. Its arguable that if Becauseicouldntsee is on the shortlist then Majestic Concorde should also - the difference is 9lbs over 4m4f. Also there is no form in Majestic Concordes Pedigree over further than 3m and very little even at that. 4m 1/2 around Cheltanham would require stamina levels approaching the levels required in the National.

2pt ew @ 25/1 Bet365

UrbanSea

You going to have a bet in the Bowl Nulty?

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Khyber Kims was a blow out. Think thats him done at the top of the game.

Sparky May may never get to Quevegas level but ran a good race. Looking forward to seeing her run again.

Loss: 28.5

That should read 29.5

Nulty wrote: »

Wayward Prince would have been a nice winner for the log but McCoy got him up for a place +2

Somersby needed it softer and hopped one and hit another, probably because he was going too fast out of his comfort zone. -12

Master Minded landed on top of one fence when not going nearly well enough to beat the winner. -2

Loss: 38pts

Wayward Prince returned 4pts profit instead of 2.

I'm sure the balance is (not including bets in play):

Profit: 65pts

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

You going to have a bet in the Bowl Nulty?

I doubt it. Denman should really be winning but I hate getting burned at evens so I'll steer clear.

UrbanSea

I feel the same way. Can't back him though,gone for Punchestowns.

Nulty

Not a bad shout, just read your post there and Denmans 'quick' reappearance is something you can hope will have an effect. He was ok at Punchestown last year and would have smashed them if it was a left handed track. I still think he should be winning so I'm gonna shy away from it.

UrbanSea

Interesting,I thought he was quite poor last year. Ground will be too quick for him I think as well.

Nulty

State Of Play the only return. Needs 8 miles but would still finish 2nd/3rd.

Killyglen made it further than even I expected (27th fence) before tipping up leaving his legs behind.

Becauseicouldntsee went early and would have been very interesting. More experience would have been a massive help to him.

Chief Dan George never figured. Don't know what he did tbh.

The Midnight Club hit the 4th/5th and was "careful" thereafter. Not much doing

Profit: 57.5

Nulty

Spring Mile

Newbury Saturday

Bravo Echo 5pts ew @ 16/1 Ladbrokes ( ¼ Odds, 4 Places, NRNB )

I was keen to see him run in the Lincoln but he didn't make the cut. He's been gelded and looks a different horse since the cruelest cut was administered before two starts back. His form with Lowther is very solid with that one winning twice since and running well enough in the Lincoln. Bravo Echos mark is 4lbs below that winning mark on the polytrack and while theres a chance hes better on the all weather, he put in a career best last time and his form coincides with his operation. I think he is better than he ever was and on recent form is extremely well handicapped. He's officially 103 on the all weather and only 92 on turf. He shouldn't have any trouble with the ground at Newbury with a dry forecast ahead. He's drawn 9 which historically is no problem with centrally drawn horses doing well in this race.

Nulty

Scottish Grand National

Ayr 3.25 Saturday

Fair Along 2pts ew @ 20/1 Bet365 ( ¼ Odds, 5 Places, NRNB )

His run in the Aon where he kept on strongly after the last is really encourgaing in the context of this race. His next at Cheltenham was good too for a relatively exposed horse when he beat all but 3 home in the Spinal Research handicap chase carrying 11-7. Those races may have taken something out of him but hes very tough and the trip could just see that bit more improvement in him. A 163 rated hurdler at his best, hes yet to live up to that as a chaser but if there is any possibility of that happening it will be in the long distance discipline.

Blazing Bailey 1pt ew @ 20/1 VC ( ¼ Odds, 5 Places, NRNB )

He's been in great form this year and was given a very tough ask of competing in the Spinal Research Chase at the festival but he was really only there to keep the weights down for Bensalem IMO. Despite his unenviable task he ran a very creditable race and like Fair Along I think the horse has only one place left to go and thats further. He will need to find improvement over this longer distance if hes to progress and a race like this where another horse is taking the weight for him is ideal. Both my bets were slow in the Cheltenham race which was run at a good pace and that is one indication that the longer distance will help.

Nulty

Profit: 45.5

Chester Cup

Mamlook 1pt ew @ 14/1 Will Hill ( ¼ Odds, 4 Places )

Nulty

Punchestown World Hurdle

Rigour Back Bob 2pts ew @ 14/1 Bet365 ( ¼ Odds, 3 Places, NRNB )

Nulty

Duke Of York Stakes

Regal Parade 2pts @ 7/1 WH

Dalghar 1pt @ 6/1 WH

Nulty

Profit: 39.5

(not counting Duke Of York bets)

Nulty

Profit: 36.5

Kings Stand Stakes (Royal Ascot)

Markab 1pt @ 14/1 WH

Nulty

Royal Ascot

Wokingham Handicap

Our Jonathon 1.5pts ew @ 16/1 Bet365

Our Jonathon 2pts @ 16/1 Bet365

Nulty

Epsom Derby

Recital 1pt @ 7/1 PP

He's a very good horse and I'm pretty sure he's the best of the Ballydoyle lot. He has the pace to handle the 11/8 favorite and can use that to do what Seville couldn't on his reappearance. If he's 7/1 on Thursday (final decs) I'll go in again. Even if Fallon doesn't ride him it won't be as big a deal as if I was backing Native Khan and he didn't ride him. It's hard to say but I reckon Fallon has a lot of diplomacy and decisions to make. Something tells me he'll err on the side of caution and go with Dunlops horse but theres no telling what bridges Fallon will burn in order to win the Derby again.

UrbanSea

Fallon picks Recital it's confirmed today.

Nulty

Not bad news at all. It'd be around a 17pt return in new money if he were to win. I'm sure he best O'Brien horse. I'll be sick if something happens between now and then but...


Epsom Derby

Recital 2pts @ 7/1 PP



Thats 3.5pts in new money but only 3pts at 7/1 logged. 33.5pts return...you know its going bad when your counting chickens at this stage!


Watch the horse in the Derrinstown. The "head carriage" is fallon pulling with his right and tapping with his left - he teaching the horse pure and simple. The horse wasn't going to crash through the rails ffs! The race was won and Fallon was doing what he does best. The horse will be peach perfect com Saturday.

Nulty

Recital loses and Our Jonathan taken out of the Wokingham....I'll admit that I was sure the Wokingham was a 7f race when I made the bet. How dumb was that. The Buckinghamshire is the 7f race at Royal Ascot and Our Jonathan isn't even in that. Entered at Sandown on Saturday.

I'll be on big time come Saturday!

Nulty

Kings Stand

Prohibit 1pt @ 16/1 PP

Kingsgate Native 1pt @ 10/1 PP


I reckon both these were inconvenienced by the draw at Haydock and are relatively over priced to turn it around with Sole Power. Can't estimate what improvement Sole Power will find but Prohibit regularly runs good races at Ascot apart from the Wokingham last year and Kingsgate Native was given too much too do. He's won the Golden Jubilee and there'll be another furious gallop on Tuesday. Best bets in the race.

Nulty

Ascot Gold Cup

Blue Bajan 1pt ew @ 16/1 WH

Nulty

Royal Hunt Cup

Ascot Wednesday

Proponent 2pts ew @ 25/1 Bet365

Brick Red 1pt ew @ 33/1 Bet365

Axiom 1pt ew @ 50/1 Ladbrokes

Nulty

Kings Stand Stakes

Ascot tomorrow

Arctic 1pt ew @50/1 Ladbrokes (NRNB)

Nulty

Axiom not declared for Royaal Hunt Cup.