"Scarcity drives year-on-year rents up for the first time since 2007"

ronanlyons

Suzuki_TL1000R wrote: »

Sooooooooooooo...

Who was right

I had forgotten entirely about this thread, so thanks to Suzuki_TL1000R for bringing it back to life! I'm somewhat amused though at some of the contributions suggesting I fared worse out of this than TheBoinkmaster! Let's have a quick look at what I said:
(1) Rents in the cities to stabilise in 2011/2012 - rents outside the cities to fall into 2012
(2) House prices to fall 55%-60% from the peak
(3) Dublin house prices to level off by 2012
(4) House prices outside the main cities to continue to fall well past this (towards 55-60% from peak)

On (1), rents in Dublin stopped falling in mid-2011, whereas ex-cities, they only stopped falling in early 2013.
On (2), house prices fell 54.9% from peak to lowest point in mid-2013.
On (3), Dublin house prices bottomed out in mid-2012 before starting to rise.
On (4), house prices in Connacht-Ulster (to take an example) are still falling year-on-year as of mid-2014 and now 58% below peak.
(All figures from the Daft.ie Reports.)

Given that prediction is a mug's game, I think I'll take that as a win, particularly when compared to TheBoinkmaster's prediction. It's worth remembering, when I wrote this in 2011, the general feeling was, as Theboinkmaster put it:
"House prices to level off in Dublin in 2011 and 2012?!?! You're actually having a laugh mate. Please explain why you think house prices in this country will not continue to plummet."

Do I think I nailed it 100%? Absolutely not - what do I think I got wrong? As GavMan pointed out, the supply response has been very weak and thus the upswing in Dublin prices and rents has been far greater than I expected. In part, this is because I misjudged how few empty units there are in Dublin (the thread above was pre-Census and pre-Ghost Estate surveys, so we were operating in a black hole of data on empty units), but also in part this is because completions of new dwellings have been far lower than anyone expected (in large part due to Ireland's unusually restrictive planning and building regs regime).

I doubt I'll win over anyone who thinks I'm talking through my rear end regardless of what I say, but I found this exercise of revisiting a three-year-old thread very educating and (from the point of view of my predictions) encouraging. (Not sure I'll be making any more predictions, though - (a) it's not my job, I did it here to take full part in the conversation, and (b) quit while you're ahead!)

Eldarion

Glad you came in to defend yourself! I couldn't for the life of me see where this huge miss of the mark was coming from that warranted the "So who was right comment". Finding it a bit strange given the predictions were for a 2011/2012 timeframe and this thread was resurrected mid/late 2014...

Theboinkmaster

ronanlyons wrote: »

I had forgotten entirely about this thread, so thanks to Suzuki_TL1000R for bringing it back to life! I'm somewhat amused though at some of the contributions suggesting I fared worse out of this than TheBoinkmaster! Let's have a quick look at what I said:
(1) Rents in the cities to stabilise in 2011/2012 - rents outside the cities to fall into 2012
(2) House prices to fall 55%-60% from the peak
(3) Dublin house prices to level off by 2012
(4) House prices outside the main cities to continue to fall well past this (towards 55-60% from peak)

On (1), rents in Dublin stopped falling in mid-2011, whereas ex-cities, they only stopped falling in early 2013.
On (2), house prices fell 54.9% from peak to lowest point in mid-2013.
On (3), Dublin house prices bottomed out in mid-2012 before starting to rise.
On (4), house prices in Connacht-Ulster (to take an example) are still falling year-on-year as of mid-2014 and now 58% below peak.
(All figures from the Daft.ie Reports.)

Given that prediction is a mug's game, I think I'll take that as a win, particularly when compared to TheBoinkmaster's prediction. It's worth remembering, when I wrote this in 2011, the general feeling was, as Theboinkmaster put it:
"House prices to level off in Dublin in 2011 and 2012?!?! You're actually having a laugh mate. Please explain why you think house prices in this country will not continue to plummet."

Do I think I nailed it 100%? Absolutely not - what do I think I got wrong? As GavMan pointed out, the supply response has been very weak and thus the upswing in Dublin prices and rents has been far greater than I expected. In part, this is because I misjudged how few empty units there are in Dublin (the thread above was pre-Census and pre-Ghost Estate surveys, so we were operating in a black hole of data on empty units), but also in part this is because completions of new dwellings have been far lower than anyone expected (in large part due to Ireland's unusually restrictive planning and building regs regime).

I doubt I'll win over anyone who thinks I'm talking through my rear end regardless of what I say, but I found this exercise of revisiting a three-year-old thread very educating and (from the point of view of my predictions) encouraging. (Not sure I'll be making any more predictions, though - (a) it's not my job, I did it here to take full part in the conversation, and (b) quit while you're ahead!)

Touché Ronan i was proved entirely wrong! Fair play

ronanlyons

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Touché Ronan i was proved entirely wrong! Fair play

Who knew this would turn into a love-in?! Thanks Theboinkmeister!

BofaDeezNuhtz

Ohh yis are a touchy lot over in the Property section aren't yis lol :eek:

I've ZERO interest in the subject and was just passing thru while searching out some
old info when I read over the thread and bumped it for giggles.

It was a Pro Ronan bump btw who clearly came out ahead duh.

So what the 3 idiots who are bemoaning me for 'bad form' are on about I've no idea.
If you read the 2 comments above mine here it'll all become clear ok dummies!:rolleyes:


Ok move along now people nothing to see here, move along, that's it, single file.....:cool:


(P.S. Just looking at Ronan's profile now and the link to his website and the info about his
current position, insightful access to Daft hard data and his willingness to publicly state his views
under his own name on his website. I reckon he is about one of the most valuable resource
you lot might have let slip thru yer fingers since he hasn't posted here since 3 years ago.
It's like having a currently employed F1 mechanic posting info in the car racing section etc)

I'm out. Peace!