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"Scarcity drives year-on-year rents up for the first time since 2007"
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08-02-2011 4:11pm#1
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Cavehill Red wrote: »Analysis and interpretation. I'm not saying he's regularly wrong or right, but he talks his book.
I'll ask again for you to provide evidence of him "bullishly upselling the recovery". You simply can't make those assertions without backing them up.
Like you tried to label me a landlord.
Enough of the mudslinging please.Cavehill Red wrote: »
The truth on this one isn't difficult to discern. Property prices are crashing. BTL investors are screaming and going to the wall. There is an enormous overhang of property throughout the country and the city. Anyone, including Mr Lyons, who believes there is any form of property scarcity is either living in a cupboard or taking heavy medication.
I wouldn't deny that house prices have and are decreasing.
The PTSB ESRI index clearly points that out.
I'm merely trying to see how this next phase will play out.
Like mkdon05 said if people aren't buying (due to house prices falling) then maybe they're renting and pushing prices up?
The housing and rental markets aren't the same beast.Cavehill Red wrote: »
It's rather that you seem resistant to the idea that Mr Lyons is wrong. You came on asking for comments. You got some and they all said the same thing. You started junking them. This is known as confirmation bias.
Where did I 'junk' comments?
You might be referring to this "An in-depth analysis of the Daft Report by an economist vs observations by a casual punter taking a stroll around a few streets?". I'd hardly call that 'junking' someones comment.
If a doctor tells you that you need an operation and your mate who isn't a doctor says 'Ah you'll be grand' who do you trust?Cavehill Red wrote: »Oh, puhlease. The victim card? Really?
Well if you're playing the 'anyone who doesn't say house and rental prices are falling is wrong' card then we can all have a go!
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Could anyone help me out and list the artificial variables that are preventing the property market (sales and rental) operating freely?
So far I have minimum mortgages of 150k, rent allowance, ghost estates in Nama, new FTB stamp duty. i.e. Witholding supply, reducing demand, artifical bottoms etc
Are there other obvious intereferences I am leaving out?
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Ronan : good man for turning up on this site to try to defend your view.
Unfortunately the visual evidence suggests that the number of properties in the city centre of Dublin, both residential and commercial property, to let is very substantial.
In the suburbs, I would contend that the situation is worse.
If you get the chance take a drive along the Ballymount Road.
The number of boarded up/vacated properties is very apparent.
You see Ronan your access to the most comprehensive rental database in the country is no comparison to the anecdotal evidence of people walking down the road I'm afraid! 0 -
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You see Ronan your access to the most comprehensive rental database in the country is no comparison to the anecdotal evidence of people walking down the road I'm afraid!
You're becoming a tad fcuking tedious, mate.
Are there not "To let" signs littered throughout central and suburban Dublin?0 -
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ronanlyons wrote: »Wow, hang on a sec there. Who brought up my personal brand? You did. You have plenty of strong opinions about it - it's presumably only fair that I do too. I am an academic economist, hired to compile the most accurate report I can for daft, who want to be accurate with their reports because that's what they believe will reward them in the long-term. Market-denying is just not an option, because people will see through it.
I'm not sure what your blind spot is with market churn. I'm not doctoring figures, I'm making sure we're comparing like with like. Do you honestly believe that a stock of 15,000 properties on the market in the UK is the same as in Ireland? Because that's the logical implication of your line of reasoning: churn doesn't matter. That's simply not true. How 15,000 properties sitting on the rental market is interpreted will be completely different in a market that churns 100,000 a month than in a market that churns just 1,000. Ireland's rental market has moved from one that churns 7,000 to one that churns 15,000. That matters.
You mention some downside risks as if I haven't thought about those. Clearly, they matter - as do the factors I mentioned at the end of the blog post in question. Generally, though, I don't do predictions, certainly not in any sort of official capacity for Daft, as the report is about what happened, not what's about to happen.
For those who are interested in what I actually think will happen, here's a quick overview:- Rents in the cities to largely stabilise, with perhaps some further fall off in the 1-2 bed segment, when NAMA/ghost estate oversupply comes on to the market, coupled with weak demand from mid-20-somethings
- Rents outside the main cities to fall another 5% or so throughout 2011, and possibly into 2012 if active oversupply persists
- Yields on residential property (that's the rent-house price ratio) to slowly correct back up towards the 6% mark... this means house prices falling 55%-60% from the peak.
- Dublin prices are already about 50% off the peak, so house prices in the capital might level off as early as second half of 2011 or else in 2012
- House prices outside the main cities are down only perhaps 35% from the peak. That, plus significant oversupply generally in the non-city markets - coupled with weak demand due to weak jobs growth - to mean a more prolonged adjustment (perhaps as long as another seven years in some counties) but probably ultimately of the same scale, i.e. down 55-60% from the peak.
- (Other cities to be somewhere between Dublin and the non-city parts, probably closer to the Dublin scenario.)
Ronan
Unfortunately I find your posts full of nonsense. You work for DAFT therefore you are not impartial and are a vested interest. You want activity to return to the market so please stop pretending otherwise.
You keep talking about peak prices - this is completely irrelevant. House prices to level off in Dublin in 2011 and 2012?!?! You're actually having a laugh mate. Please explain why you think house prices in this country will not continue to plummet when:
A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody
Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2013
H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels, ie by 1.5%-2.5%
L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts
O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
P) The Croke Park aggreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
Q) Unemployment rises and
R) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
S) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
T) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to precrisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
U) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
V) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
W) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
X) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least0 -
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