Cork South Central

mirm

I think FG will get the three seats they want, FF 1 and labour 1. I wouldnt write off McGrath as alot of people saying they wont vote FF but will vote for McGrath

jank

mirm wrote: »

I think FG will get the three seats they want, FF 1 and labour 1. I wouldnt write off McGrath as alot of people saying they wont vote FF but will vote for McGrath

The current numbers wont add up. Labour could be in with a shout at two seats. SF running at 14% will be up there aswell. FG for 3 is pushing it but may happen on a very very good day for FG.

Anyone know if there is going to be a poll of this constituency? That would gage the real feeling on the ground.

Rebel1977

Who will be eliminated after first count ? between McCatrthy and Boyle I think

FoxT

hmmmm, hard to predict!

I think

FG - 2
Lab - 1 to 2
FF 1 to 2
Indies 0 - 1
Greens - 0
Sinn fein - 0



Coveney, clune, Martin, & 1 labour candidate are in. The remaining seat will be a tossup betwen FF #2, lab #2, and outside chance on an indo or shinner. And , CSC being the nice leafy suburb that it is, the indos & shinners have no chance, so it will be down toFF #2 or lab #2..

Eliot Rosewater

Has anyone seem Micheal McGrath's posters in the city? They say he's from "a new generation", and the posters conveniently omit the fact that he's a sitting TD. Ironic, really, because it's obviously an indictment of Fianna Fail's record. His posters give you a reason not to vote FF.

Rebel1977

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Has anyone seem Micheal McGrath's posters in the city? They say he's from "a new generation", and the posters conveniently omit the fact that he's a sitting TD. Ironic, really, because it's obviously an indictment of Fianna Fail's record. His posters give you a reason not to vote FF.

Maybe it's just me, but does it not look like the same poster from his last election ?

clerk

Lads/Lassies ye all seem to be writting off McCarthy but according to the poll he's in the running for a seat.

I doubt FF will get 2 seats to be honest.

Time for change.

mirm

No way are FF going to get 2 seats in Cork South Central, there is going to be a huge divided between FF votes so Martin no matter how sure he is will not be elected on the first count. I think its either Labour or FG for the last seat!

Teddy455

1. Simon Coveney(FG)

2. Michaél Martin(FF)

3.Ciarán Lynch(LAB)

4.Deirdre Clune(FG)

5. Tough battle between Paula Desmond(LAB), Jerry Buttimer(FG), Michael McGrath(FF), Chris O Leary(SF), David McCarthy(IND)

Diplomat

Looking at Cork SC, If Labour had run a fresh candidate such as Keith O'Brien, who would have a high profile amongst new voters in both UCC and CIT, they may have had a chance of two quotas.

IMHO, Paula Desmond is not a candidate who would inspire confidence.

clerk

Teddy455 wrote: »

1. Simon Coveney(FG)

2. Michaél Martin(FF)

3.Ciarán Lynch(LAB)

4.Deirdre Clune(FG)

5. Tough battle between Paula Desmond(LAB), Jerry Buttimer(FG), Michael McGrath(FF), Chris O Leary(SF), David McCarthy(IND)

I'd agree with you in the top 4 but imo you could write off Desmond, her profile is zero and probably McGrath & O'Leary too.

I wouldn't write off Boyle either.

I'd guess Buttimer/McCarthy or Boyle for the 5th seat.

Brussels Sprout

The Sunday Independent has some poll where they have Michael Martin and McGrath on 14% and 11% and Coveney in the mid twenties with everyone else in single figures. They go on to say that if there is a further FG surge that Buttimer will take a seat at Lynch's expense.

This seems to fly in the face of everything else I've read so far. Another example of the Spindo's pro FF, anti-Labour bias?

String

Had buttimer as a religon teacher in school and he couldnt even handle a classroom of 20 people, how is he meant to be able to help manage a country?

jank

DrMorphine wrote: »

Had buttimer as a religon teacher in school and he couldnt even handle a classroom of 20 people, how is he meant to be able to help manage a country?

Handling a classroom is a barometer of how someone could help manage a country?

clerk

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The Sunday Independent has some poll where they have Michael Martin and McGrath on 14% and 11% and Coveney in the mid twenties with everyone else in single figures. They go on to say that if there is a further FG surge that Buttimer will take a seat at Lynch's expense.

This seems to fly in the face of everything else I've read so far. Another example of the Spindo's pro FF, anti-Labour bias?

2 things on that Brussels Sprout,

1] I'm not up on the " Spindo's pro FF, anti-Labour bias " that you refer to. But I'd find that poll very vary hard to believe. FF 2nd and 3rd and Lynch struggling they reckon. Maybe the poll was carried out at a FF piss up or something
Lynch's seat is guaranteed I'd say and FF have no chance of 2 seats in my opinion.

2] In the last election, in the week before polling the Evening Echo carried a report on a poll that had Dan Boyle 2nd in the running with a big picture of him smiling away. A few days later he was gone. That report which carried a lot more weight in Cork City ( being the main local paper ), the Examiner now commonly referred to as the Kerry Examiner :P imo kind of shafted him. So these polls can be very dangerous.

Lynch, Coveney, Martin & Clune will all get in and a dog fight for the 5th. Always in CSC.

Brussels Sprout

The Examiner had an ad in today's paper for their poll of cork south central out tomorrow. The ad showed a picture of a ballot paper with all of the front runners in the constituency. However they omitted Labour's Paula Desmond and Independent David McCarthy (who's winning a seat on the boards poll) whilst including Mick Finn. I can't imagine Desmond and McCarthy will be too happy whilst Finn will be chuffed to given some free advertising.

Goldstein

http://www.corkrdo.ie/files/N28Bloomfield%28merge%29.pdf
(Look at the date: 2004)

Michael McGrath has failed to deliver any progress on this much needed N28 upgrade (Ringaskiddy to Cork). He's been talking about "pushing it through" since long before the last election and now it looks like he's trying to distance himself from the whole issue by waffling about some "improvements". On top of the FF backlash, I see this is really hurting him in his core Carrigaline/Ringaskiddy/Crosshaven area.

Jerry "€50,944" Buttimer's 2nd highest senator expenses in the country should also prove costly.

(Incidentally, Dan Boyle wasn't too far behind on €40,758.)

My prediction would be:

• Coveney
• Lynch
• Martin
• Clune
• O'Leary

jank

Poll is out.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/election/analysis/misery-for-martin-145478.html

Simon Coveney (FG) on 19%;
Micheál Martin (FF) on 18%;
Ciarán Lynch (Lab) on 14%;
Michael McGrath (FF) on 9%;
Jerry Buttimer (FG) on 9%;
Deirdre Clune (FG) on 8%;
Chris O’Leary (SF) on 8%;
Paula Desmond (Lab) on 5%;
Michael Finn (Ind) on 5%;
Dan Boyle (GP) on 3%;
David McCarthy (Ind) on 2%.

That would mean when transfers are included.

Simon Coveney,
Micheál Martin,
Ciarán Lynch,
Deirdre Clune
Jerry Buttimer.

Although they reckon it will be a tough fight for the last seat with McGrath and O'Leary in with a shout too.

So 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Labour....

clerk

Whilst that poll is reasonably accurate. There a few things that don't stack up for me.

The 2 main FG candidates 1% ahead of the 2 main FF candidates. That doesn't stack up with what people are talking about. Unless all the FF voters are in the closet !! I'd expect a more severe backlash versus FF.

Also, I find Mick Finn on 5% hard to fathom. With respect I haven't a clue who he is. Also Boyle on 3%, he'll do a lot better than that. I reckon a lot of young people will vote for McCarthy too. It's a telephone poll so I reckon it has a seniority bias ( and FF ) in that regard. Adults are more likely to take the time to do the poll.

Also, if the 2 FG candidates are only 1% up on FF I can't understand how they manage to pull in Clune ( 3rd seat ) on the transfers.

Having said that the poll result is largely what I predicted in a previous post.;)

county man

The outcome will be
2 FG Coveney and Clune
1 FF Martin
1 Labour Lynch
5th seat between FG Buttimer and FF McGrath

redwilly

From looking at todays Examiner the last 2 seats will be fought by Clune (FG) Buttimer (FG) Desmond (Lab) Mc Grath (FF) and O'Leary (SF).

It will be very interesting where the candidates lie after the first count.

I feel Buttimer/Clune and Desmond could take them . Desmond is very strong in Carrigaline and will eat into Mc Grath's vote there.

quidestveritas?

redwilly wrote: »

From looking at todays Examiner the last 2 seats will be fought by Clune (FG) Buttimer (FG) Desmond (Lab) Mc Grath (FF) and O'Leary (SF).

It will be very interesting where the candidates lie after the first count.

I feel Buttimer/Clune and Desmond could take them . Desmond is very strong in Carrigaline and will eat into Mc Grath's vote there.

Well, one of those two will go to FG if Buttimer and Clune are both in the running. Really expert vote management will get them both in but that would be a tall order. I fancy O'Leary, polling well and for once SF will pick up transfers from others and there are plenty of like-minded left-leaning other candidates to help O'Leary out. Whatever McGrath gets in FPV is pretty much what he is going to end up with.

FG 2 FF 1 Lab 1 SF 1

GymJim

From what I've seen and heard on the ground and incorporating some of the polls I've seen I think that Micheal Martin, Simon Coveney and Ciaran Lynch are the most likely first 3 past the quota.

After that the last 2 seats are realistically between Clune, Buttimer, McGrath and O'Leary. I have a feeling that McGrath may get the 4th seat and Buttimer slipping in ahead of Deirde Clune for the last seat. I think people may underestimate the popularity of Michael McGrath at a local level.

Paula Desmond is not popular at all outside the Carrigaline area and won't be contending as the constituency definitely won't return 2 Labour candidates and the votes in her area will go to Coveney and McGrath. Dan Boyle is very unpopular full stop. No independent strong enough in to contend though anyone unfamiliar with Ted Neville should visit his website...a good read

moceri

Micheal Mc Grath has spent the last four years sitting way up at the top of the back benches, with his mouth shut, in the seat usually occupied by the Newspaper Boys.

He needs to step up to the mark as he has totally failed to Impress.

I am constantly reminded in his newsletters about the imminent building of a new school in Passage West. There have been too many False Dawns on this issue over the last 10 Years.

Planning is also a huge issue in the Lower Harbour area. Pandering to big Developers interests have resulted in a huge oversupply and no infrastructure to support it. No sign of the Lower Harbour Sewage Treatment Plant. Monkstown School bursting at the seams.

telekon

Dave McCarthy has far more than 2%. As has been mentioned, he has the youth vote which may have eluded this survey.

Mick Finn, Independent my hole!! :mad:

He's a FF snake through and through, has been for years. I am just hoping he will split the disinfranchised FF hardcore voters...

GymJim

moceri wrote: »

Planning is also a huge issue in the Lower Harbour area. Pandering to big Developers interests have resulted in a huge oversupply and no infrastructure to support it. No sign of the Lower Harbour Sewage Treatment Plant. Monkstown School bursting at the seams.

To be fair, I cannot see how Michael McGrath can be blamed for the flaws in the local planning process. Surely this is within the remit of your local councillors rather than an a TD. To suggest a TD could affect this process is akin to approving of the input of TDs in the planning process in the past (i.e. Ray Burke and the "brown envelope" days). I am not saying TDs should be removed from local issues I am just saying that this is actually a local government issue where a TD would not be involved in the process.

Funnily enough I have actually encountered Mr McGrath successfully lobbying against developments in the area in the past (as a councillor) on the basis of insufficient services and specifically due to the lack of sewage treatment infrastructure.

Also, while there is a need for the sewage treatment in the Lower Harbour, I can tell you first-hand Monkstown school is not "bursting at the seams".

Just before I get accused of being an FFer, I am not nor will I be voting for Michael McGrath. The criticism here however does seem somewhat unfounded considering I hear no mention of Simon Coveney's lack of involvement in local issues in the same area.

moceri

GymJim wrote: »

To be fair, I cannot see how Michael McGrath can be blamed for the flaws in the local planning process. Surely this is within the remit of your local councillors rather than an a TD. To suggest a TD could affect this process is akin to approving of the input of TDs in the planning process in the past (i.e. Ray Burke and the "brown envelope" days). I am not saying TDs should be removed from local issues I am just saying that this is actually a local government issue where a TD would not be involved in the process.

Funnily enough I have actually encountered Mr McGrath successfully lobbying against developments in the area in the past (as a councillor) on the basis of insufficient services and specifically due to the lack of sewage treatment infrastructure.

Also, while there is a need for the sewage treatment in the Lower Harbour, I can tell you first-hand Monkstown school is not "bursting at the seams".

Just before I get accused of being an FFer, I am not nor will I be voting for Michael McGrath. The criticism here however does seem somewhat unfounded considering I hear no mention of Simon Coveney's lack of involvement in local issues in the same area.

Micheal McGrath is the only one who stuffs my mailbox with newsletters taking credit for local issues- promises, promises but no delivery. He is the one cruising around the parish pump.

TD's are involved in local Issues. Once they start accepting political Donations from developers the Die is cast. Ask him to publish his Donors list for the last five years.

Last September the Principal at Scoil Barra-Naofa confirmed that there was only limited vancancies and admissions policy where priority would be given to Siblings, children of Past Pupils and thereafter on catchment.

GymJim

moceri wrote: »

Micheal McGrath is the only one who stuffs my mailbox with newsletters taking credit for local issues- promises, promises but no delivery. He is the one cruising around the parish pump.

TD's are involved in local Issues. Once they start accepting political Donations from developers the Die is cast. Ask him to publish his Donors list for the last five years.

Last September the Principal at Scoil Barra-Naofa confirmed that there was only limited vancancies and admissions policy where priority would be given to Siblings, children of Past Pupils and thereafter on catchment.

So because he's some bit active in the community than other TDs he's more culpable?!

Also the schools policy is the same in every school. Its a case that the groups you mention are prioritized ahead of those newer to the area which is very reasonable. I agree a problem whereby not every local child may always be accommodated could be caused by the planning issues you mentioned, however I really think it a little harsh to heap all the blame on a single TD.

I'm afraid I'm starting to inadvertedly defend Michael McGrath but my point is more why are Coveney, Clune, Martin and Ciaran Lynch not culpable? On your logic it seems that it's because he makes some attempt to keep a local presence.

I also think you're being quite harsh in tarring all politicians with the same brush there. Again why do you not mention the political donations the other 4 TDs get from the exact same types of business people?

ballalley

Cant see FG taking 3 seats ..... think it will be 2FG 2FF and 1 Lab

quidestveritas?

ballalley wrote: »

Cant see FG taking 3 seats ..... think it will be 2FG 2FF and 1 Lab

You have got to be the only person I have seen predicting TWO :eek: Fianna Fáil seats here! Or anywhere! (OK - maybe Laois-Offaly, but only maybe)