Cork South Central

Brussels Sprout

5 Seater:

The 5 sitting TDs are all running:

Micheal Martin (FF)
Micheal McGrath (FF)
Simon Coveney (FG)
Deirdre Clune (FG)
Ciaran Lynch (Lab)

Also confirmed running will be:

Jerry Buttimer (FG Senator)
Paula Desmond (Lab Councillor)
Dan Boyle (GP Senator)
Chris O' Leary (SF Councillor) (formerly independent, formerly GP)
Mick Finn (Ind Councillor)

Realistically with the developments of the last 2 weeks, 4 of the sitting TDs are pretty sure to win their seats with a huge battle for McGrath's seat between Buttimer, O' Leary, Desmond and possibly even McGrath himself.

A Red-C poll done at the start of the year had the following predictions:

FF 9.9%
FG 39.5%
LP 23.0%
GP 7.8%
SF 12.8%
OTH 7.0%

It should be noted that this was conducted before the recent upheavals in FF which should definitely see an increase in their candidates numbers in this constituency.

How do you see this one playing out?

Kimono-Girl

i really couldn't call this one,


i don't think that poll comes close to accurate though...

Balmed Out

last time out ff got 44% of 1st preference, fg 28, labour 9%, greens 8 and sf 5.

Itll be close but i think with the loser out last time ff on the 6th count and the 5th count knocking dan boyle a green and martin becoming leader of ff if i was to bet id say it may stay as is

omerin

That's a terrible line up. Clearly on Dan Boyle's family crest must be the words - if first you don't succeed then try and try again. No one wants you Dan, feck off. Failure of MM to get elected would be an early Christmas present Coveney is a clueless ass and the rest are a bit meh

Badabing

1 FF 2FG 1LAB last seat between McGrath and Buttimer. Boyle to lose deposit.

bensboys

Just talking about this in work during the week, I fancy McGrath to hold onto his seat, can't see FG getting 3 or labour getting 2. Dan Boyle will also pay the price for GP in government.

McGrath is probably the front-runner for the 5th seat.

steelcityblues

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF

CoalBucket

Here is how I see it going.

FG 2 SEATS - Simon Coveney will easily be elected and his transfers will see Deirdre Clune over the line. Jerry Buttimer will put in a strong performance but not make it.

LAB 1 SEAT - Ciaran Lynch will be elected. Desmond will get support in her own area but not much outside that.

SF 1 SEAT - Chris O'Leary will take a seat. Being a former green he will take a large vote from Dan Boyle. He will also take votes from traditional FF supporters who can't move themselves to vote FG. That with his own core support will see him over the line leaving the two FF candidates to fight it out.

FF 1 SEAT - Martin will hold onto his seat post his leadership win.

Greens - Dan Boyle will probably buy a new laptop to continue tweeting

BTW Mick Finn is FF through and through. He was secretary for former FF TD John Dennehy. He is about as independant as Jackie Healy Rae.

jank

CoalBucket wrote: »

Here is how I see it going.

FG 2 SEATS - Simon Coveney will easily be elected and his transfers will see Deirdre Clune over the line. Jerry Buttimer will put in a strong performance but not make it.

LAB 1 SEAT - Ciaran Lynch will be elected. Desmond will get support in her own area but not much outside that.

SF 1 SEAT - Chris O'Leary will take a seat. Being a former green he will take a large vote from Dan Boyle. He will also take votes from traditional FF supporters who can't move themselves to vote FG. That with his own core support will see him over the line leaving the two FF candidates to fight it out.

FF 1 SEAT - Martin will hold onto his seat post his leadership win.

Greens - Dan Boyle will probably buy a new laptop to continue tweeting

BTW Mick Finn is FF through and through. He was secretary for former FF TD John Dennehy. He is about as independant as Jackie Healy Rae.

Yeap that will be it alright.

Amazing really. FF had 3 out of 5 there before the 2007 election. Now they will only have one and that of the FF leader.

nesf

steelcityblues wrote: »

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF

Not a hope of SF taking a seat over Labour in this constituency. I'd say McGrath (FF) vs Chris O'Leary (SF) for the last seat and it could be tight.

Balmed Out

Cant see Sinn Fein taking a seat. Green voters would typically not be very supportive of Sinn fein and I reckon o'leary wont be carrying over any substantial amount of support.
I thought Cremin did well to poll over 5% last time out and theyll improve that but not enough especially as they wont do too well in transfers

My money says itll stay as is with lynch coming over the line a lot lot easier

jank

nesf wrote: »

Not a hope of SF taking a seat over Labour in this constituency. I'd say McGrath (FF) vs Chris O'Leary (SF) for the last seat and it could be tight.

No way FF will get close to two in this race. There will be enough 1st prefs for one FF seat but not two. SF will be a definite I think. Chris o Leary has a high profile here as well.

Rebel1977

Can't see FG getting 3 seats my prediction would be
Coveney
Clune
Martin
Lynch
McGrath

Dan Boyle has no chance, Chris O'Leary deflected from Green Party to sinn fein since the last election

Eliot Rosewater

Do people fancy Buttimer?

The combined government party vote in the 2007 was over 52%. I imagine this will take a hitting, especially Boyle's vote (he managed over 8% first preference last time). I could see Fine Gael taking a lot of those.

Rebel1977

Buttimer could be a dark horse for the final seat, Coveney should be first FG to be elected in this constituency, if Mcgrath pools badly Buttimer might get ahead, one thing in McGraths favour is he openly backed Martin early on in the leadership battle

Dob74

Clune, Lynch, Martin will get in, then Buttimer
Last seat between Desmond, Coveney and McGrath, all carrigline based.
Transfers will decide, Mick Finn to be in the lead for the also rans.
O'Leary to out poll Boyle.

Eliot Rosewater

Yeah, transfers will be very important which is why I think SF don't have a chance: they're generally immune to them.

Balmed Out

Whats Buttimer like does anyone know?
Supporting fine gael last time round and expecting clune and coveney to get in I gave him my first preference last time round. Anytime since ive heard of him its always in relation to complaining about something rather then actively doing something. Would have liked to see macgonagile get the ticket instead, seems a very hardworking young councillor and itd be good to have a young female td coming through.
We really dont have great candidates in south central I think.

Rebel1977

Not sure what Buttimer is like seen him speak a few times in the seanad and seems to know his stuff, also he was on operation transformation last year!

nesf

jank wrote: »

No way FF will get close to two in this race. There will be enough 1st prefs for one FF seat but not two. SF will be a definite I think. Chris o Leary has a high profile here as well.

In a normal constituency I'd agree with you, with Martin as leader this may prove to be exceptional to the national trend, similar to how Mayo was for FG when Kenny had a shot at Taoiseach.

logonmar

Presuming Martin gets a boost he's still unlikely to have a quota on 1st count.
If that proves to be the case McGrath will be well behind Martin and really impossible to see where he would get the 2nd, 3rd preferences etc. to get past the line. Thus Martin, Coveney, Clune & Lynch with final seat between FG/Lab/Ind but not FF

CoalBucket

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Yeah, transfers will be very important which is why I think SF don't have a chance: they're generally immune to them.

The transfers are going to play a massive part in this election. I can understand why you think Sinn Fein would not have a chance in this regard but I think that will also have a detremental effect on McGrath.

I think most people would agree that Coveney, Lynch, Clune and Martin will be elected at this stage, the last seat is really wide open.

It looks like being a very interesting election in Cork South Central.

Balmed Out

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork_South_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

Last time round fianna fail had 3 candidates and came very very close to getting three seats. With two candidates instead of 3 and martin being ff leader then I really would be surprised if we dont have everything staying as is.

Last time round there had been enough dodgy revelations of coruption and ineptitude that I for one was surprised how well they did so you gotta think they have a fair amount of hardcore supporters in the area.

nesf

logonmar wrote: »

Presuming Martin gets a boost he's still unlikely to have a quota on 1st count.
If that proves to be the case McGrath will be well behind Martin and really impossible to see where he would get the 2nd, 3rd preferences etc. to get past the line. Thus Martin, Coveney, Clune & Lynch with final seat between FG/Lab/Ind but not FF

Word in the constituency until now was that McGrath was putting a lot of pressure on Martin and was really pushing him for first place in terms of FF votes. I wouldn't count on him being that far behind Martin when the votes come in.

What it'll come down to is transfers and whether Martin picks them up as leader of FF over and above his position as a FF candidate. McGrath might scrape through on a "least worst" option basis transfer wise if he's vying with the SF candidate for the fifth seat. What it really comes down to is whether Labour poll well enough to have their candidate, not McGrath vying for that last seat, though traditionally Labour have never been that strong in the constituency so it's awkward to forecast.

nesf

Balmed Out wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cork_South_Central_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

Last time round fianna fail had 3 candidates and came very very close to getting three seats. With two candidates instead of 3 and martin being ff leader then I really would be surprised if we dont have everything staying as is.

Last time round there had been enough dodgy revelations of coruption and ineptitude that I for one was surprised how well they did so you gotta think they have a fair amount of hardcore supporters in the area.

Nah, none of the corruption allegations touched on the Cork branch of FF or the Munster branch in general. It could very easily have been seen as a Dublin problem and that "our lads are alright". Etc.

Brussels Sprout

David McCarthy will also be contesting the election. He's an independent running on a platform of political and public sector reform.

http://corkpolitics.ie/wp/?p=6858

http://www.votedavidmccarthy.com/index.php/

padraic83

in the last election, mcgrath as a first time canditate polled over 9000 votes.
even if FF result falls 40% he is still looking at 5400.

Along being a transfer friendly canditate i think it will e as is... coveny to top then martin lynch clune and mcgrath

jank

padraic83 wrote: »

in the last election, mcgrath as a first time canditate polled over 9000 votes.
even if FF result falls 40% he is still looking at 5400.

Along being a transfer friendly canditate i think it will e as is... coveny to top then martin lynch clune and mcgrath

I dont know, if that is true than Cork South Central will not have changed its Dail seats at all. Would this be the only place where you are going to have 2 FF TD's?

I am still sticking to - 1 FF + 1 SF. It will be close but cant see the votes there for 2 FF

pow wow

Buttimer is great to deal with and a decent guy from personal experience, shame he's FG .

My prediction is 2 FG, 1 LAB, 1 FF and 1 IND or SF. I'm unsure on the last one as I hear a lot of support for SF on 96fm so it must be true :rolleyes:

jank

After doing a bit more reading on this John Dennehy got about 5000 1st prefs last time and Dan Boyle got 4000 1st prefs. Where will Boyle's vote go? Where will John Dennehy's votes go? I think Labour and SF will get them.

deanh

jank wrote: »

After doing a bit more reading on this John Dennehy got about 5000 1st prefs last time and Dan Boyle got 4000 1st prefs. Where will Boyle's vote go? Where will John Dennehy's votes go? I think Labour and SF will get them.

Dennehy's votes came mainly from the Togher, Glasheen, Bishopstown area which is Buttimer's base, although some will go to Labour and SF.

mirm

I think FG will get the three seats they want, FF 1 and labour 1. I wouldnt write off McGrath as alot of people saying they wont vote FF but will vote for McGrath

jank

mirm wrote: »

I think FG will get the three seats they want, FF 1 and labour 1. I wouldnt write off McGrath as alot of people saying they wont vote FF but will vote for McGrath

The current numbers wont add up. Labour could be in with a shout at two seats. SF running at 14% will be up there aswell. FG for 3 is pushing it but may happen on a very very good day for FG.

Anyone know if there is going to be a poll of this constituency? That would gage the real feeling on the ground.

Rebel1977

Who will be eliminated after first count ? between McCatrthy and Boyle I think

FoxT

hmmmm, hard to predict!

I think

FG - 2
Lab - 1 to 2
FF 1 to 2
Indies 0 - 1
Greens - 0
Sinn fein - 0



Coveney, clune, Martin, & 1 labour candidate are in. The remaining seat will be a tossup betwen FF #2, lab #2, and outside chance on an indo or shinner. And , CSC being the nice leafy suburb that it is, the indos & shinners have no chance, so it will be down toFF #2 or lab #2..

Eliot Rosewater

Has anyone seem Micheal McGrath's posters in the city? They say he's from "a new generation", and the posters conveniently omit the fact that he's a sitting TD. Ironic, really, because it's obviously an indictment of Fianna Fail's record. His posters give you a reason not to vote FF.

Rebel1977

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

Has anyone seem Micheal McGrath's posters in the city? They say he's from "a new generation", and the posters conveniently omit the fact that he's a sitting TD. Ironic, really, because it's obviously an indictment of Fianna Fail's record. His posters give you a reason not to vote FF.

Maybe it's just me, but does it not look like the same poster from his last election ?

clerk

Lads/Lassies ye all seem to be writting off McCarthy but according to the poll he's in the running for a seat.

I doubt FF will get 2 seats to be honest.

Time for change.

mirm

No way are FF going to get 2 seats in Cork South Central, there is going to be a huge divided between FF votes so Martin no matter how sure he is will not be elected on the first count. I think its either Labour or FG for the last seat!

Teddy455

1. Simon Coveney(FG)

2. Michaél Martin(FF)

3.Ciarán Lynch(LAB)

4.Deirdre Clune(FG)

5. Tough battle between Paula Desmond(LAB), Jerry Buttimer(FG), Michael McGrath(FF), Chris O Leary(SF), David McCarthy(IND)

Diplomat

Looking at Cork SC, If Labour had run a fresh candidate such as Keith O'Brien, who would have a high profile amongst new voters in both UCC and CIT, they may have had a chance of two quotas.

IMHO, Paula Desmond is not a candidate who would inspire confidence.

clerk

Teddy455 wrote: »

1. Simon Coveney(FG)

2. Michaél Martin(FF)

3.Ciarán Lynch(LAB)

4.Deirdre Clune(FG)

5. Tough battle between Paula Desmond(LAB), Jerry Buttimer(FG), Michael McGrath(FF), Chris O Leary(SF), David McCarthy(IND)

I'd agree with you in the top 4 but imo you could write off Desmond, her profile is zero and probably McGrath & O'Leary too.

I wouldn't write off Boyle either.

I'd guess Buttimer/McCarthy or Boyle for the 5th seat.

Brussels Sprout

The Sunday Independent has some poll where they have Michael Martin and McGrath on 14% and 11% and Coveney in the mid twenties with everyone else in single figures. They go on to say that if there is a further FG surge that Buttimer will take a seat at Lynch's expense.

This seems to fly in the face of everything else I've read so far. Another example of the Spindo's pro FF, anti-Labour bias?

String

Had buttimer as a religon teacher in school and he couldnt even handle a classroom of 20 people, how is he meant to be able to help manage a country?

jank

DrMorphine wrote: »

Had buttimer as a religon teacher in school and he couldnt even handle a classroom of 20 people, how is he meant to be able to help manage a country?

Handling a classroom is a barometer of how someone could help manage a country?

clerk

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The Sunday Independent has some poll where they have Michael Martin and McGrath on 14% and 11% and Coveney in the mid twenties with everyone else in single figures. They go on to say that if there is a further FG surge that Buttimer will take a seat at Lynch's expense.

This seems to fly in the face of everything else I've read so far. Another example of the Spindo's pro FF, anti-Labour bias?

2 things on that Brussels Sprout,

1] I'm not up on the " Spindo's pro FF, anti-Labour bias " that you refer to. But I'd find that poll very vary hard to believe. FF 2nd and 3rd and Lynch struggling they reckon. Maybe the poll was carried out at a FF piss up or something
Lynch's seat is guaranteed I'd say and FF have no chance of 2 seats in my opinion.

2] In the last election, in the week before polling the Evening Echo carried a report on a poll that had Dan Boyle 2nd in the running with a big picture of him smiling away. A few days later he was gone. That report which carried a lot more weight in Cork City ( being the main local paper ), the Examiner now commonly referred to as the Kerry Examiner :P imo kind of shafted him. So these polls can be very dangerous.

Lynch, Coveney, Martin & Clune will all get in and a dog fight for the 5th. Always in CSC.

Brussels Sprout

The Examiner had an ad in today's paper for their poll of cork south central out tomorrow. The ad showed a picture of a ballot paper with all of the front runners in the constituency. However they omitted Labour's Paula Desmond and Independent David McCarthy (who's winning a seat on the boards poll) whilst including Mick Finn. I can't imagine Desmond and McCarthy will be too happy whilst Finn will be chuffed to given some free advertising.

Goldstein

http://www.corkrdo.ie/files/N28Bloomfield%28merge%29.pdf
(Look at the date: 2004)

Michael McGrath has failed to deliver any progress on this much needed N28 upgrade (Ringaskiddy to Cork). He's been talking about "pushing it through" since long before the last election and now it looks like he's trying to distance himself from the whole issue by waffling about some "improvements". On top of the FF backlash, I see this is really hurting him in his core Carrigaline/Ringaskiddy/Crosshaven area.

Jerry "€50,944" Buttimer's 2nd highest senator expenses in the country should also prove costly.

(Incidentally, Dan Boyle wasn't too far behind on €40,758.)

My prediction would be:

• Coveney
• Lynch
• Martin
• Clune
• O'Leary

jank

Poll is out.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/election/analysis/misery-for-martin-145478.html

Simon Coveney (FG) on 19%;
Micheál Martin (FF) on 18%;
Ciarán Lynch (Lab) on 14%;
Michael McGrath (FF) on 9%;
Jerry Buttimer (FG) on 9%;
Deirdre Clune (FG) on 8%;
Chris O’Leary (SF) on 8%;
Paula Desmond (Lab) on 5%;
Michael Finn (Ind) on 5%;
Dan Boyle (GP) on 3%;
David McCarthy (Ind) on 2%.

That would mean when transfers are included.

Simon Coveney,
Micheál Martin,
Ciarán Lynch,
Deirdre Clune
Jerry Buttimer.

Although they reckon it will be a tough fight for the last seat with McGrath and O'Leary in with a shout too.

So 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Labour....

clerk

Whilst that poll is reasonably accurate. There a few things that don't stack up for me.

The 2 main FG candidates 1% ahead of the 2 main FF candidates. That doesn't stack up with what people are talking about. Unless all the FF voters are in the closet !! I'd expect a more severe backlash versus FF.

Also, I find Mick Finn on 5% hard to fathom. With respect I haven't a clue who he is. Also Boyle on 3%, he'll do a lot better than that. I reckon a lot of young people will vote for McCarthy too. It's a telephone poll so I reckon it has a seniority bias ( and FF ) in that regard. Adults are more likely to take the time to do the poll.

Also, if the 2 FG candidates are only 1% up on FF I can't understand how they manage to pull in Clune ( 3rd seat ) on the transfers.

Having said that the poll result is largely what I predicted in a previous post.;)

county man

The outcome will be
2 FG Coveney and Clune
1 FF Martin
1 Labour Lynch
5th seat between FG Buttimer and FF McGrath