will there be a superlevy

whelan1

i asked this months ago and everyone said no , rang dairies today and they are saying there will be if things keep going like thay are as people have milked their cows on with the good milk price , what do you think?

blue5000

No, maybe in some co-ops but country won't be over quota. Sure there won't be a blade of grass anywhere till paddys day. Co-op is tryin to scare the bejazes out of you, on the other hand if you get a S levy bill don't come back to me complainin, no is just what I think.....

5live

I dont think so whelan1. Kerry still 40million litres under and grass isnt going to be very plentiful this spring with the cold weather and with ration prices going up it wont be profitable to feed high levels of meal. Then again, farmers sometimes dont look at the bottom line before feeding so.... TBH i dont think so but a month is a very long time in farming not to mind 3 months. Did you buy any quota or are you waiting for 2015

whelan1

i am actually putting milk in to temporary leasing as i lost cows last year and couldn't afford to replace them:mad: so even though i had the cows out longer etc there isnt a hope in hell of me filling my quota:o

5live

Im pretty much the same. I am thinking of putting a bit into temp leasing but do you lose entitlement to flexi milk if you do? Its not going to bother me this year but come april the whole race starts again:o

snowman707

i don't think there will be a levy, at least hope not .. we are running a little over,


I see a lot of dairy stock advertised for sale mostly first calvers and maidens. reckon 11/12 onwards would need to be cautious as regards levy, but weather and fert prices could have a say .

greenfielder

hi folks,

have 250 acres and was thinking of starting a greenfield dairy unit. my main worry though is quota. I have none and as you can only buy 100,000 litres worry is that country will be over quota and superlevy could badly affect it. what is the alternative?

5live

greenfielder wrote: »

hi folks,

have 250 acres and was thinking of starting a greenfield dairy unit. my main worry though is quota. I have none and as you can only buy 100,000 litres worry is that country will be over quota and superlevy could badly affect it. what is the alternative?

Temporary leasing at 2c a litre for round 1 or 1c for round 2 closing this friday i think. Plus flexi milk worth a few litres too. You might be lucky and come across a partnership. May be worth looking into

Tipp Man

greenfielder wrote: »

hi folks,

have 250 acres and was thinking of starting a greenfield dairy unit. my main worry though is quota. I have none and as you can only buy 100,000 litres worry is that country will be over quota and superlevy could badly affect it. what is the alternative?

buy a plough

John_F

can you only buy 100,000 l? thats the maximum on the milk quota exchange :eek: you could look out for the new entrants scheme. have you milked cows before? not as easy as it is on paper you know

John_F

on the super levy, milk quota situation is tightening and if theres a very good spring, it could be very tight, 1% point filled in the month of november http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/farmingsectors/dairy/milkquotas/milksuperlevysituation/

2011 - 12 season will be onne to be very wary of in my opinion

greenfielder

plough could be best option alright!! yeah we milk in de north but have land in south so were thinking of setting up there. wouldn't qualify for de new entrants. say we only bought 100,000l on the exchange and produced 1,000,000 litres could we lease the 900,000? it will be at least 2012 before this will take place, better leaving to 2015?

John_F

ye could try, but the leasing depends very much on the national situation and imo in 2012 ther'l be alot of people looking for quota and not enough selling / leasing, too many variables to know though, price, weather, disease etc etc. by entering in 2015 you will imo still have to buy shares or rights to sell milk, this is done in nz and if the co op feel they dont want milk then they just up the share price to make it uneconomical for farmers to purchase, my opinion is to get into dairying now rather than post 2015... however people are very divided on this issue

Tipp Man

John_F wrote: »

ye could try, but the leasing depends very much on the national situation and imo in 2012 ther'l be alot of people looking for quota and not enough selling / leasing, too many variables to know though, price, weather, disease etc etc. by entering in 2015 you will imo still have to buy shares or rights to sell milk, this is done in nz and if the co op feel they dont want milk then they just up the share price to make it uneconomical for farmers to purchase, my opinion is to get into dairying now rather than post 2015... however people are very divided on this issue

I would think that alot of Glanbia and Dairygold suppliers are thinking along the same lines as yourself John - hence the high price at both coops in the last auction

Tipp Man

How much would it cost to set up a 250 acre dairy?

Half a million or more by the time everything is taken into account?

Hard to see how that can pay

whelan1

Tipp Man wrote: »

How much would it cost to set up a 250 acre dairy?

Half a million or more by the time everything is taken into account?

Hard to see how that can pay

cant see any bank lending out that tbh

5live

Tipp Man wrote: »

How much would it cost to set up a 250 acre dairy?

Half a million or more by the time everything is taken into account?

Hard to see how that can pay

250 cows at 1k a cow/ heifer is 250k for a start assuming no cattle at the start. 40k plus for parlour and about the same for a tank. Roads. Fencing. water. Cubicle housing 100k plus? Half a million may be conservative

red bull

Believe me, if milk price stays only on its present level and a good March country will definetly go over quota:eek:

5live

kerry talking about 2c rise this month so i hear but we will need about 4c to cover ration and fert increases this year

dar31

well lads and ladies,
what everyones views on super levy at the moment,
how are individual coops around the place doing

whelan1

i think it will be very tight- i personally will be ok

dar31

is there still another round of temp leasing to go,
might consider hedging my bets a little

whelan1

i put milk in to temporary leasing - have less cows due to a problem last year and couldn't afford to buy in replacement- have 50 heifers coming in this year of my own to cover what i lost last year, so hopefully i will be over quota next year:)

funny man

deffinetly NO Superlevy in C/Gold or L/lands but Glanbia and Dairygold will push us over me thinks.

dar31

funny man wrote: »

deffinetly NO Superlevy in C/Gold or L/lands but Glanbia and Dairygold will push us over me thinks.

is kerry still well under or are they catching up, glanbia looking like they will head over, im in the premier pool, so a bit insulated, but its rising steadily as well.

funny man

yea kerry is still well under

stanflt

dar31 wrote: »

is kerry still well under or are they catching up, glanbia looking like they will head over, im in the premier pool, so a bit insulated, but its rising steadily as well.

im in premier 2. cant afford superlevy-quota already filled:eek:

whelan1

stanflt wrote: »

im in premier 2. cant afford superlevy-quota already filled:eek:

i can give ye some

stanflt

whelan1 wrote: »

i can give ye some

thanks- did you see the journal this week- farmers convicted of switching milk

keep going

west cork coops over and next year looks like a disaster, some thing going to have to be done about it for the next few years.any ejit comes to your door looking for a vote ask him what he is going to do about.gov scared to say anything in europe.no good looking for 50% extra in 2020 if the guys that are going to do it are burnt with superlevy.

whelan1

stanflt wrote: »

thanks- did you see the journal this week- farmers convicted of switching milk

ye:D

funny man

keep going wrote: »

west cork coops over and next year looks like a disaster, some thing going to have to be done about it for the next few years.any ejit comes to your door looking for a vote ask him what he is going to do about.gov scared to say anything in europe.no good looking for 50% extra in 2020 if the guys that are going to do it are burnt with superlevy.

What do you want done? we still operate with a quota system which has a penalty if the country goes over it's quota, We need to take our foot off the gas if we were a F1 driver who could see a long straight ahead but before we get to it there is a chicane (series of dangerous bends) do we touch the brakes or just put the foot down and hope for the best.

keep going

what about reducing the levy for a start. the theory was that qoutas would have no value anyway in 2015.look around the country we cant wait until 2015 to start motoring,thats not just as a farmer thats in terms of employment for everyone.this would cost the gov nothing to go and negotiate and dont forget its the germans want their money back.you show me any orther business you think is goin to grow strongly in this country.

funny man

keep going wrote: »

what about reducing the levy for a start. the theory was that qoutas would have no value anyway in 2015.look around the country we cant wait until 2015 to start motoring,thats not just as a farmer thats in terms of employment for everyone.this would cost the gov nothing to go and negotiate and dont forget its the germans want their money back.you show me any orther business you think is goin to grow strongly in this country.

i agree dairy farmers can't wait to get motoring but if we go back in to negotiate all other countries will want to negotiate too and their views on quota abolition are different to ours look at the french they accept abolition of producers quotas but want to cap individual countries, but i also believe that dairying has the potential to do for Ireland what it has to New Zealand.

There is a review to be carried out in 2012/13 which may reduce super levy thats our best bet at the moment until then we have to stop pretending that there is no quotas and every producer is responseable for their own actions.

Tipp Man

keep going wrote: »

what about reducing the levy for a start. the theory was that qoutas would have no value anyway in 2015.look around the country we cant wait until 2015 to start motoring,thats not just as a farmer thats in terms of employment for everyone.this would cost the gov nothing to go and negotiate and dont forget its the germans want their money back.you show me any orther business you think is goin to grow strongly in this country.

A levy could be the best thing to happen dairy farmers in years. There are some going around milking anything that moves with complete disregard for the rules i.e. the quota. Nothing has changed with regards to quota, we still have to abide by it.

What is completly unfair is that some dairy farmers are abiding by the rules and milking to their quota will others don't give a damn and milk away as if it wasn't even there.

Why am I paying anything from 25-30 cent a litre to buy quota when my neighbour is milking 50 cows over quota?? I hope a load of them get burnt with big fines

ihatetractors

Tipp Man wrote: »

A levy could be the best thing to happen dairy farmers in years. There are some going around milking anything that moves with complete disregard for the rules i.e. the quota. Nothing has changed with regards to quota, we still have to abide by it.

What is completly unfair is that some dairy farmers are abiding by the rules and milking to their quota will others don't give a damn and milk away as if it wasn't even there.

Why am I paying anything from 25-30 cent a litre to buy quota when my neighbour is milking 50 cows over quota?? I hope a load of them get burnt with big fines

I wonder how many of these mega dairies are in for a shock, i'd say there'll be a lot of calves kept around to use up extra milk??..

John_F

Tipp Man wrote: »

A levy could be the best thing to happen dairy farmers in years. There are some going around milking anything that moves with complete disregard for the rules i.e. the quota. Nothing has changed with regards to quota, we still have to abide by it.

What is completly unfair is that some dairy farmers are abiding by the rules and milking to their quota will others don't give a damn and milk away as if it wasn't even there.

Why am I paying anything from 25-30 cent a litre to buy quota when my neighbour is milking 50 cows over quota?? I hope a load of them get burnt with big fines

why? supply and demand! fellas / lassies want to expand, fellas want to farm better, farmers want to have the optimum stocking rate and look at a well fed cow.. well most want the latter anyway.

look at the reference years and the difference in cows, milk yield, grazing techniques, feeding strategies etc that have changed since then. please tell me your cows are milking better than in 1981? quotas introduced in 1984 using 1981 reference years if im correct?
a farmer who converted during the reference years, and did not have cows built up for the amount of acres then was like being stuck between a rock and a hard place,

a levy would cripple irish dairying. and put any hope for expansion down the drain. 4-500 of glanbia are over, 30% of dairygold suppliers. (irish independent 1/2/11)

you cannot blame a fella for thinking in a year that we were told that a levy wouldnt be an issue to drive on, then half way through the season to be told different.

i know quotas are there as a price support in effect, however there is a world demand for dairy products, and while some countries are limited to expand, ireland is way off the limit. why stop and let another country take over the markets that are buying milk. a company will rather buy a total amount of milk than a bit off ireland, another bit from the dutch, another bit from the usa.

the world in 1981 is alot different to the world in 2011

Tipp Man

John_F wrote: »

why? supply and demand! fellas / lassies want to expand, fellas want to farm better, farmers want to have the optimum stocking rate and look at a well fed cow.. well most want the latter anyway.

look at the reference years and the difference in cows, milk yield, grazing techniques, feeding strategies etc that have changed since then. please tell me your cows are milking better than in 1981? quotas introduced in 1984 using 1981 reference years if im correct?
a farmer who converted during the reference years, and did not have cows built up for the amount of acres then was like being stuck between a rock and a hard place,

a levy would cripple irish dairying. and put any hope for expansion down the drain. 4-500 of glanbia are over, 30% of dairygold suppliers. (irish independent 1/2/11)

you cannot blame a fella for thinking in a year that we were told that a levy wouldnt be an issue to drive on, then half way through the season to be told different.

i know quotas are there as a price support in effect, however there is a world demand for dairy products, and while some countries are limited to expand, ireland is way off the limit. why stop and let another country take over the markets that are buying milk. a company will rather buy a total amount of milk than a bit off ireland, another bit from the dutch, another bit from the usa.

the world in 1981 is alot different to the world in 2011

The quota is STILL in place - its all well and good talking about how the quota was introduced 30 years ago but the facts remain it is STILL in place and is STILL a rule to be adhered to

The arguements for abolition of a quota are completly different from the arguements of a superlevy. The quota is still here so it is still a constraint on Irish dairying

Also you say that fellas "drove on" because they thought there wouldn't be a levy - well a) thats still their own fault and b) even if a 100 cow herd pushed his herd they'd be what 5-10k gallons over quota max, there are loads of people milking double or triple their quota which is plain wrong

Now can you tell me why I should pay 20-30 cent a litre to buy quota when my neighbour is milking 50 cows extra without buying a gallon? How is that a level playing field? Why right does he have to break the rules?

John_F

Tipp Man wrote: »

The quota is STILL in place - its all well and good talking about how the quota was introduced 30 years ago but the facts remain it is STILL in place and is STILL a rule to be adhered to

The arguements for abolition of a quota are completly different from the arguements of a superlevy. The quota is still here so it is still a constraint on Irish dairying

Also you say that fellas "drove on" because they thought there wouldn't be a levy - well a) thats still their own fault and b) even if a 100 cow herd pushed his herd they'd be what 5-10k gallons over quota max, there are loads of people milking double or triple their quota which is plain wrong

Now can you tell me why I should pay 20-30 cent a litre to buy quota when my neighbour is milking 50 cows extra without buying a gallon? How is that a level playing field? Why right does he have to break the rules?

my point is that the quota should be larger anyway now that there is a demand for the product. - ok i take it isnt related directly to a superlevy

he isnt really breaking the rules, there isnt a rule to say you cant go over quota, the rule is that if you do go over and the country is over then you pay. its a choice weather to purchase quota or not, you could also do what he does and take the risk of the country being under quota. its not like you have to pay if hes over and you are under. your paying that much for quota because to the percieved value post 2015 aswell as the risk of super levy

Tipp Man

John_F wrote: »

my point is that the quota should be larger anyway now that there is a demand for the product. - ok i take it isnt related directly to a superlevy

he isnt really breaking the rules, there isnt a rule to say you cant go over quota, the rule is that if you do go over and the country is over then you pay. its a choice weather to purchase quota or not, you could also do what he does and take the risk of the country being under quota. its not like you have to pay if hes over and you are under. your paying that much for quota because to the percieved value post 2015 aswell as the risk of super levy

Well I agree the quota should be much larger than it is now and the way in which it has been handled has been atracious.

Regarding the levy - you have just backed up what i am saying - the country is (or could be) over quota and the guys over quota will have to pay via the levy - I don't see what right anybody who is over quota has to complain about the fact their is a levy. They take their chances as you say yourself and now they will have to pay for it (assuming there is a levy)

cjpm

Tipp Man wrote: »

A levy could be the best thing to happen dairy farmers in years. There are some going around milking anything that moves with complete disregard for the rules i.e. the quota. Nothing has changed with regards to quota, we still have to abide by it.

What is completly unfair is that some dairy farmers are abiding by the rules and milking to their quota will others don't give a damn and milk away as if it wasn't even there.

Why am I paying anything from 25-30 cent a litre to buy quota when my neighbour is milking 50 cows over quota?? I hope a load of them get burnt with big fines

I agree with a lot of what you have to say... esp after paying for quota.


It's all to do with risk. And any fella who takes the risk could get burnt, but that the risk they take. You and many more chose not to take it and as late as Dec a lot of co-ops thought that the country would not go over.

However some fellas attempted to make a few bob by milking on, I wouldn't be wishing that they get stung, a lot are the average joe just trying to make a living, esp after 2 bad years price wise. And by god this was a tough winter to milk through, trying to defrost machines at -10 deg.... They worked bloody hard for their few bob.

Would you prefer if they had not and the demand for the milk they produced was met by some other country. The cash for it is better off in Ireland, this economy needs all the money it can get at the moment.

Next year these fellas will prob have the same no of cows and the same quota, then your purchased quota will be worth it. It will be def worth it this year if there are fines for others and not you.

Miller80

I am supplying connacht gold and currently over quota, was in contact with co op re '10 -'11 quota year and was told to continue supplying because the co op would def be under quota.
If country is over and my co op is under, how am i fixed?

funny man

Miller80 wrote: »

I am supplying connacht gold and currently over quota, was in contact with co op re '10 -'11 quota year and was told to continue supplying because the co op would def be under quota.
If country is over and my co op is under, how am i fixed?

No you'll be fine. The way quota operates it's Country first, Processor second and then supplier so if the country ends up over quota it only apply's to whatever processor is over and then the suppliers who have exceeded their quota.

I supply Lakeland and they say that they will be fine but they reckon that they will be over in 2011/12.

I don't wish that any supplier get's burnt but i will have no sympathy for any one who gets caught, play with fire and you get burnt.

milkprofit

We should make special case to eu as country is B****ked--- look for 10% increase in Q As ireland needs the Exports to get monet in

keep going

i think its fair to say this all depends where you are standing. if you think your going to get stung your worried,if you or your coop have enough its not an issue.around west cork quota wasnt available to a large extent anyway .wishing orther fellas down isnt going to help you. most around here are not "super"farmers but might have pushed on by 10 to 25%(average quota 49000gls west cork).much of it due to fact they had put facilities in place under FWM and coops, papers, and advisers were saying to go for it.

thetangler

"Why am I paying anything from 25-30 cent a litre to buy quota"
Have quota but C gold only paying 5c per lt (some difference) so kept it for now.

funny man

thetangler wrote: »

"Why am I paying anything from 25-30 cent a litre to buy quota"
Have quota but C gold only paying 5c per lt (some difference) so kept it for now.

I don't know what co-op you supply, but in both CGold and LLands the demand to purchase quota was low for two reasons, the price paid for milk is always below the rest of the country and my last calculation compared to the top five processors we are behind by €147/cow/year and secondly it shows that less suppliers are prepared to pay any more for this quota as our costs are generally higher. Laurence Shaloo presented a paper at the grassland conference and the only guys that can afford to pay for quota is low cost producers and he did say that if you ain't low cost you shouldn't buy at all.

whelan1

seems to be getting alot tighter now, glanbia sent out a text today that there would be deductions off milk cheques for those over quota

stanflt

whelan1 wrote: »

seems to be getting alot tighter now, glanbia sent out a text today that there would be deductions off milk cheques for those over quota

i asked glanbia on friday if i should dump milk-they told me not even to consider that

whelan1

fmp are negotiating the milk price tonight with glanbia for the next few months

dar31

whelan1 wrote: »

fmp are negotiating the milk price tonight with glanbia for the next few months

tomorrow night