UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

kinda fancy tony martin to beat magny at 5/4 but the price that catches
my eye as big value is rocco sub at 10/1 pp some are 5s on this

he has 1 ko win/9sub/7pts wins to his name
magnys losses were 2ko/4subs/1pts

feels like it might go the distance but at the odds I can't resist


surprised meerschaert is underdog v heinisch also, took 4s by sub which again looks good to me for a guy with 23sub wins and heinisch was made look very ordinary in his last two fights



maybe more of a banker is the double of hooper/sterling staman to go the distance which works out at around 7/5
can't for the life of me call sterling staman fight, can't see either gettiing a finish, hooper is as cool as they come, talented, patient and I don't give bruce a prayer here tbh.



another one i like is hooper sub/o mally ko at 11/4

or just the hooper o mally double at 9/10 I may yet lump on that one, wineland is past it...o mally looks the business.
I've never rated caceres, if hooper has any ambitions at all he'll beat him and easily at that.


also like the 4/5 on nunes ko, ngannou was 10/11 to ko rosen last time and I was talking to myself for not taking that thought did double him with kattar.
Spencer looks tough but god she looks so slow in comparison, she'll be a mess if she goes five with nunes, might be tough enough to survive it though.



It's one of those cards where I fancy far too much

tinpib

Hunting for value.


Maybe Spencer will be heroic in defeat and take Nunes to pts, Amanda to win that way is 3.75


Brian Kelleher seems to be underrated, he looked near defeat only a few weeks ago but got the win, I'll take the 3.1


I agree that Meerschaert at 2.1 is attractive, and I have a sneaking feeling that Cody Garbrandt might be finished, sadly his opponent wins more by subs than KO, but still I'll go for the 2.2


Charles Byrd is coming off 2 defeats and is no spring chicken so the 2.5 on his opponent Pitolo looks more appealing.


All just small stakes for the laugh.

mailburner

tinpib wrote: »

Brian Kelleher seems to be underrated, he looked near defeat only a few weeks ago but got the win, I'll take the 3.1


I agree that Meerschaert at 2.1 is attractive, and I have a sneaking feeling that Cody Garbrandt might be finished, sadly his opponent wins more by subs than KO, but still I'll go for the 2.2

tempted by kelleher too, not sure what stamann has done to be so short but I can't back them all :pac:

I'm thinking the same about Cody even though I hope he wins. He's a risky bet right now.
I think Assuncao pts is a tad overpriced at 7/2 depending on how Cody approaches the fight and on top of that Assuncao has only lost to top fighters in recent years so cody will need to be at his best.

Whelo79

Must be some value in Nunes by sub 9/1?

Whelo79

Going for a few small bets for each fight.

Burns sub & Meinfield KO 4.2/1

Burns sub Rd 2 17/2

kwestfan08

Anyone do the fantasy mma on paddy power? Find it better craic than an accum as one loss and all isn't totally lost (although your chances of the big bucks are gone).

Gone for the dream team of:

Meinfield
O'Malley
Kelleher
Hooper
Pitolo
Sandhagen

Whelo79

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Anyone do the fantasy mma on paddy power? Find it better craic than an accum as one loss and all isn't totally lost (although your chances of the big bucks are gone).

Gone for the dream team of:

Meinfield
O'Malley
Kelleher
Hooper
Pitolo
Sandhagen

I just had a look. Can't for the life of me work out what is supposed to be done! There's loads of different games, entry fee prizes, picking MVP etc.

kwestfan08

Whelo79 wrote: »

I just had a look. Can't for the life of me work out what is supposed to be done! There's loads of different games, entry fee prizes, picking MVP etc.

Team of six fighters. You have a budget of $100 and every fighter has a cost.

Better to pick what game you want to enter before the card starts of course but they all have different entry fees and different max entrants. Games with more entries usually have bigger prizes etc.

Fighters get points for how they perform in the cage, eg 100 for r1 finish, 75 for r2 etc. They also pick up points for things like significant strikes, takedowns completed or defended, subs attempted.

MVP just mean that the fighter you pick in that slot gets 1.5x the points (so if they score 100 and they're your MVP they get 150)

Highest points total wins then. I usually enter the €8 one. For PPV winner gets 100k so theres big money to be had. But something like the top 2,500 will win something.

Whelo79

Going for Kelleher KO here. 9/1 O don't think Staman has ever been finished but I'd imagine he has had a rough time with his young brother dying and Kelleher always has a KO shot in him. Worth the punt.

tinpib

Continuing with my wildly popular big priced UFC picks:


Karl Roberson has fought some tough guys, lost to Glover Teixeira in Jan 2019, his opponent has a great record but Roberson missed weight by a huge 4.5lbs, which statistically gives fighters an advantage, and is priced at 2.8 so worth a shot.


Charles Rosa/Kevin Aguillar looks close on paper to me but Rosa is 2.62 so that seems generous.



The always reliable women's-fight-goes-to-decision oddsbooster means:


Calvillo at 3.0, a coin toss in my mind and the prices agree so 3.0 on pts is appealing.


Agapova is only 1.3 to win but on points is 2.25


Avilia is 1.14 to win but amazingly is 3.1 on pts. KO is 1.61 seems far too short, this isn't Francis Ngannou.

kwestfan08

Ivy
Adashev
Aguilar
Fili
Avila

Pays close to 7/1

Whelo79

Stinker so far for me, both bets KO'd inside a minute.

Going for Avilia by KO/TKO in the next.

Whelo79

Going for Lopez KO/TKO/Pts @ 6/1 here for the craic.

tinpib

Some more eagerly awaited big priced picks:

Volkov on pts, 9.0, pure hail mary bet. It wouldn't the first heavyweight fight where one fighter gases early and loses on pts, could happen here, though probably not.

Austin Hubbard in the opener is 2.62, he is 1:2 in UFC, opponent is 5:0 making his UFC debut and has finished all 5 fights early by sub. That's all I know, haven't seen him fight but I get the whiff of a possible UFC hypetrain.

Frank Camacho is 2:4 in UFC and I almost always go for UFC experience over someone making their debut, but his opponent Justin Jaynes is priced at 4.0 and has only lost 1 in 9 so worth a nibble.

Then we are back to our old reliable women's-fight-going-to-decision odds booster:

I like Lauren Murphy she is really gutsy but went with her opponent Modafferri at 2.62

Gillian Robertson rarely goes to decision but was on a nice run recently 3.5

Tecia Torres is on a losing run but has bags of experience and has fought the best, her opponent is fav on only her 2nd UFC fight, so a no-brainer to go for Tecia at 3.75

Raquel Pennington is a fairly skimpy 2.1 but I think she should win.

As always just small stakes for the laugh.

mailburner

really like the torres price also and when has torres ever been
such a price to win on points

haven't seen enough of van burren but she's very short on
what she's achieved and if torres can stay way from the clinch and keep
it standing she has a great shout imo and it'll surely be the first time
she has a 4 inch height advantage against the smallest ufc fighter

tinpib

Ya, I noticed her opponent is 4' 11" according to Sherdog. She's teeny.

al87987

Torres points is a great bet

Whelo79

Great shout on the Torres by points, jumped on it earlier.

mailburner

perry poirier double at around evens a good thing?


If I got evens on a perry ko I'd gladly take that though (4/6) think one of the most average fighters mickey gall will do very well to get out of the first round

I like dan hooker but I really don't think he's good enough to hang with an elite fighter like poirier

MUFC91CS

mailburner wrote: »

perry poirier double at around evens a good thing?


If I got evens on a perry ko I'd gladly take that though (4/6) think one of the most average fighters mickey gall will do very well to get out of the first round

I like dan hooker but I really don't think he's good enough to hang with an elite fighter like poirier

Really like the Poirier KO at 5/4

mailburner

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Really like the Poirier KO at 5/4

couldn't agree more

tinpib

The week's highlight for many people, my big priced UFC picks.

Though it's slim pickings this week.

Is Mickey Gall really that bad? At 3.5 I have gone for him.

Judged purely from skimming his record on Sherdog Khama Worthy might have a bit of a glass chin. He is up against Luis Pena who is a long string of pi$h and shouldn't have KO power. Worthy has 9 KO finishes out of 15 victories, so I think to win by KO at 4.75 is worth a bet.

As always, I've gone for the women's fight by decision oddsbooster. Kay Hansen is fav so went for her on pts for 2.40

eagle eye

I'll be taking Mickey Gall to win by stoppage, very tempted to go just sub. If Perry connects it's likely over but if Gall gets him to the ground first then it's his fight. Perry hates it on the ground and isn't great at defending the takedown either. 4/1 for him to win inside the distance is far too big imo, and great value.

Whelo79

eagle eye wrote: »

I'll be taking Mickey Gall to win by stoppage, very tempted to go just sub. If Perry connects it's likely over but if Gall gets him to the ground first then it's his fight. Perry hates it on the ground and isn't great at defending the takedown either. 4/1 for him to win inside the distance is far too big imo, and great value.

I just came on to post something similar myself. Gall has a great chance to win by sub I reckon. And if Perry really does only have his girlfriend in his corner it's going to be very weird.

mailburner

Settled on poirier ko at 6/4

pp enhancing poirier+perry ko at 7/2 (3.79 next best) so took that


not much point going with the perry ko at crap odds, do think Gall will
get an awful beating in the first round though

might sound crazy but I can't see a way where Gall wins this even by sub, he's only subbed cans so far and cerrone is different level when subbing perry

His mouth got him as far as he did, he's going nowhere imo

eagle eye

mailburner wrote:

might sound crazy but I can't see a way where Gall wins this even by sub, he's only subbed cans so far and cerrone is different level when subbing perry

So.you are totally ok with Perry having nobody but his gf in his corner?

mailburner

eagle eye wrote: »

So.you are totally ok with Perry having nobody but his gf in his corner?

Against Gall? Yes
He could have his grandmother in his corner


I don't rate him but he did better than I expected by winning a round

Good tdd by perry also

mailburner

usman yan a cert at around 17/20? or would usman volkan at evens be a better shout? only a few pricing yet so maybe there'll be slightly better odds available.

All three are 7/4

I can't see jorge getting the better of usman anywhere, can really see a
50/45 pts win for usman.
I don't see the likes of masvidal ever beating usman, colby or edwards for that matter and believe he'll be shown to be not one of the elite in the division at the weekend.
If you go into a firefight with masvida you'll probably come out second best as till and diaz found out but usman is far too good for that.

Aldo is simply not the fighter he was and Yan will outwork him the same way
holloway did and will imo get it done in the championship rounds if not earlier.

I wonder how good Yan actually is though, getting a title fight and the highest ranked fighter he has fought was rivera and similar to benavidez I think Aldo is jumping the queue here. Yan has looked the part saying all that and aldo
will be his toughest test.

I think volkan has max's number and rose barring a freak ko will outpoint andrade though I might leave that one alone.

As it stands I'm leaning towards the usman volkan double simply because it's yan's first title fight and nothing else and I'm
not sure what max can do differently to win this.

Mellor

It’d be a tough match for Jorge with a full camp. Have to back Usman here.
Kinda hoping the street Jesus hype train gets going and bumps Usmans price a bit.

Normally I’d be looking out for the undervalued former champ in the immediate rematch. But Holloway apparently did this camp in isolation over zoom. That can’t be great prep. And I know for a fact Volk brought in multiple profighters for an intense finish to his camp.

Whelo79

Mellor wrote: »

It’d be a tough match for Jorge with a full camp. Have to back Usman here.
Kinda hoping the street Jesus hype train gets going and bumps Usmans price a bit.

Normally I’d be looking out for the undervalued former champ in the immediate rematch. But Holloway apparently did this camp in isolation over zoom. That can’t be great prep. And I know for a fact Volk brought in multiple profighters for an intense finish to his camp.

It really depends on your perception as to whether certain preperations are right or wrong, good or bad. Max could be fresh and revitalised, Volkanovski could be banged up and over trained.

We'll only know on the night, but personally I don't think the change in preperations will effect Max negatively.