December 2010 forecast contest

homolumo

MadDogGreener wrote: »

This bet should pay out now shouldnt it? Its disappeared from the paddy power website, but my betslip says "Lower than 6"/"Lowest temp in Dublin week ending 27th Dec". It was -9 at the airport this morning. And AFAIR, they are using wunderground as the metric.

Still have not paid out for me. Knowing PP they will wait until Dec 28th.

Speak Now

homolumo wrote: »

Still have not paid out for me. Knowing PP they will wait until Dec 28th.

Yeah you wont see it until next week probably. Bit like not paying out on the first goalscorer until the match has ended.

thetonynator

mountjuliet wrote: »

Apparently it was beat overnight, Castlederg in Co Tyrone recorded a temperature of -18C overnight and the temperature in Foxford, Co Mayo dropped to -17.2C. Mount Juliet's -16.8 is moved to 3rd place.

Wouldn't be surprised if we get some snow here in Mount Juliet in the next 48 hours.

do you run the station in mt. Juliet?

Sponge Bob

Ballyhaise hit -14.4c yesterday the 20th and again on the 21st it was precisely -14.4c ( max -9.4c all day) and was again the lowest , lets hope this is not an anomaly caused by their using a 14.4k modem

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

thetonynator

IMT now -1.2 after 3 weeks.

:eek:

M.T. Cranium

Not much change yet in precip or sunshine.

Precip has risen very slightly with a 40% week, to 35% for the month.

Sunshine has fallen slightly with a 140% week, now standing at 157% of normal. This could only rise given the low "normal" values at this time of year and several sunny days ahead (as well as several cloudy ones).

homolumo

I beg for mercy

M.T. Cranium

I will post the Jan 2011 contest on the 24th, but if you think you might be away for the whole time, it will be the usual questions plus a bonus asking how much snow will Danno report to the winter forecast thread during January. Last time I looked, he had reported 18 cms this past 30 days. That's just to give an idea of how snowy a location he is in.

So if you feel like entering early, register on here or PM me. New entrants, while you're wise to wait until around the 30th, if you must enter now, check page one of this thread to see what the usual five questions are. In winter months, "rainfall" percentage of normal includes the melted equivalent of snow.

Joe Public

Any chance the weather is on steroids? How else could it be breaking so many records?

thetonynator

Joe Public wrote: »

Any chance the weather is on steroids? How else could it be breaking so many records?

it's a usain bolt of a month all right. . :P

Pangea

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I feel that if you are going to set a record low temperature over the next while that the coldest place in Ireland, for the record, really should be that station called "Boyle" :cool: ( the actual unit must be out in Lough Key Forest Park)

Nice map, is that where all of met eireanns stations are? Never knew they had that much.
How come there is so few on the ME site, is their any online links to the see the above stations readings?

M.T. Cranium

Most countries have two networks, their "first order" reporting stations which give hourly reports or at least regular reports, and their climat stations which send them in weekly or monthly, with only extremes and totals. This is why in the contest we only use the two dozen or so first order stations that are on the met.ie website. Finding out the values from other stations would involve a time-consuming hunt and/or delay for the contest.

But long-term climat stations are very valuable assets because they are almost always far from urban effects or even the changing landscape of airports, so they tend to preserve the same local environment to help track actual as opposed to theoretical climate change.

(BTW, climat is short for climatological and not my bad spelling)

M.T. Cranium

Lowest now -14.8 C at Ballyhaise 22nd. Mercy rule awaits.

thetonynator

Annual IMT now at 8.7. Rapid drop there!!! :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Most of the leaders in the annual race have about the same forecasts so it's going to come down to the wire on the scoring, can't pick out a favourite horse yet. Bonus will be scored by rank, I plan to give three tens, three nines etc, in the holiday spirit. The super-bonus could go either way, just takes one flake of snow to get three points, wouldn't want to bet against it although most places look to stay dry. Would say that The Inquisitor seems likely to lead the way on Dublin temperatures with -9/2 for the min and max. Nobody among us all predicted a sub-freezing high (not that I'm saying there will be one by 2300h).

At a quick glance, I'm going to gain a bit on the leaders with the lower monthly forecast, but not enough to change anyone's order of finish. Danno has some pretty good extreme numbers as his ace in the hole. But the leaders could all change positions, it will all come down to slight differences.

Sponge Bob

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Lowest now -14.8 C at Ballyhaise 22nd. Mercy rule awaits.

Claremorris made -14.7c yesterday which did not beat -14.8c in Ballyhaise on the 22nd but should have been a tad colder some time on the 25th...or else Ballyhaise may have caught up. Either way the minimum should finally be settled by tomorrow morning. Watch here

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

thetonynator

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Claremorris made -14.7c yesterday which did not beat -14.8c in Ballyhaise on the 22nd but should have been a tad colder some time on the 25th...or else Ballyhaise may have caught up. Either way the minimum should finally be settled by tomorrow morning. Watch here

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Ballyhaise, casement and claremorris all down to -15 at some point. :eek: which will be lowest?! :P

waterways

Casement with -15.7
then Ballyhaise -15.2 and
Claremorris -15.0 yesterday.

Sponge Bob

Next up will be the question of whether the Atlantic can deprive Sponge Bob of his 10.2c December Max Temp crown or whether a higher max shall eventually prevail :cool:

EDIT 27th Dammit if Valentia is not showing 11c already today which means _something_ north of 10.5c will most likely win the monthly max , I do not expect todays highest reading to be beaten on the upside ...even if I remain minorly hopeful of a calibration error

Sponge Bob

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

22/12 Not much change yet in precip or sunshine.
Precip has risen very slightly with a 40% week, to 35% for the month.

The heavy rain yesterday together with the powerful band now sweeping in to cork and kerry in a NNE direction will finish of the monthly totals more or less. Valentia alone reported nearly 50mm of rain on the 26th but the average for the other synoptics was around 10-12mm with none higher than 20mm.

thetonynator

valentia at 11 degrees at the last report . . max broken.

Joe Public

thetonynator wrote: »

valentia at 11 degrees at the last report . . max broken.

Probably will go higher tomorrow just for spite!

Sponge Bob

Showing 11c right now in Valentia but the 'adjusted' high yesterday was 10.2c for Sherkin and with no data for Valentia

Some decent rainfall totals too, 38m in Johnstown , 36mm in Cork and 34mm in Sherkin.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Speak Now

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Showing 11c right now in Valentia but the 'adjusted' high yesterday was 10.2c for Sherkin and with no data for Valentia

Some decent rainfall totals too, 38m in Johnstown , 36mm in Cork and 34mm in Sherkin.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Valentia has already hit 12 today so we're looking at least at 11.5c.

Joe Public

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Showing 11c right now in Valentia but the 'adjusted' high yesterday was 10.2c for Sherkin and with no data for Valentia

Someone in Met eireann must be a contestant in this competition and are holding back on the Valentia report;)

Sponge Bob

Joe Public wrote: »

Someone in Met eireann must be a contestant in this competition and are holding back on the Valentia report;)

Only out of respect for Sponge Bob who predicted precisely 10.2c for the month :cool: . They can adjust the stats all they like after MT is forced to score the month

thetonynator

Shannon hit 13 at some point . . .:(

M.T. Cranium

They haven't posted the 25th for Dublin yet either, although from what I recall the high was sub-zero and the low around -11, both lower than any of our guesses. This recent rainfall has probably boosted the precip past 50% and towards 60%, some stations will now be almost on normal for the month while others got only a slight boost and have stayed down around 40%.

Sunshine will almost definitely score from highest to lowest predictions and possibly with a slight "mercy rule" adjustment, although possibly not as there are quite a few rather high predictions.

Unless anyone has evidence to the contrary, I am going with "no" snowfall on the 25th. There may have been a snowflake somewhere in Mayo (from radar) but I have yet to see a report of snow either on Met.ie or elsewhere.

DOCARCH

thetonynator wrote: »

Shannon hit 13 at some point . . .:(

Shannon AP max yesterday of 12.9c (according to Met E).

thetonynator

IMT up to yesterday is now at -0.9 . . .looks likely it will stay below 0 for the month!!!