December 2010 forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Showdown at the Last Chance Saloon
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Looking through the November forecasts, I can sense a tightening up of the leaderboard as we head into the last showdown of the year ... so get ready and fire your forecasts in before the end of Wednesday 1 December.

Please note, your seasonal forecasts (winter contest) do not carry over here and you are free to predict something completely different here. But if you want to be a hero, repeat your December forecasts here for extra bragging rights on New Years Day.

(1) mean temperature (IMT) for Dec (1961-90 avg is 5.3 C)

(2) highest temperature on met.ie stations for Dec

(3) lowest temperature on met.ie stations for Dec

(4) rainfall (melted precip) as percentage of normal for Dec

(5) sunshine as percentage of normal for Dec

(6) Bonus question -- min and max temperatures at Dublin on 25th.

(7) Three-point super-bonus -- snow on hourly reports any met.ie station on the 25th? (yes, no)

Just to avoid confusion, min and max for the 25th is my way of saying morning low and afternoon high but the answers will be validated by whatever is reported in the 24h period (25th Dec) as the high and low for the day. For the snowfall question, yes is valid if any met.ie reporting station has a confirmed observation of snowfall.

Template that helps old MTC get to every home on Christmas Eve ...

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... DUB25 MAX/MIN ..... Y/N

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Some may also wonder, what about snowfall, how does that factor into a monthly precip % of normal forecast? Well, snowfall is included in the precip total by virtue of its water equivalent. Let's say there is one snowfall of ten cms. If that melts down to 10 mms then it's like 10 mms of rain fell that day in the precip totals. But if the 10 cms is a dry snow that gives only 5 mm water equivalent, then it's counted as 5 mms of precip.

As always, deadline for entries end of the day on the first of the month, and a penalty applies to any forecasts received on Thursday 2nd, after which no entries accepted.

TheMilkyPirate

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
4.1..........14.2.......-11.......106%......125%.......6/-2...........yes

nacho libre

3.9, 8.7, -9.6, 85%, 135%, 7.3/0.3, no

Deep Easterly

Just to add, the December 61-90 IMT is 5.3c.

talkabout

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
4.3..........8.2.......-8.9.......97%......110%.......6.7/-1.2...........yes

TheInquisitor

MEAN 2. MAX 6. MIN -12. RAIN 60%. SUN 120%. DUB25 MAX/MIN 2/-8.... Y

pauldry

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
5.8:P........11.......-7.......108%......115%.......9/3...........N

homolumo

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
4.5..........8.3.......-9.9.......99%......118%.......5.8/-1.1...........Y

thetonynator

3.0 ..... 10.0 ..... -10.0 ..... 70% ..... 120% ..... 6.0/-2.5..... N


There wont be snow in the hourly reports, but i didnt say there won't be any lying snow!!!

Edit: Very unambitious min and high max needed changing . . .

200motels

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
5.1..........13.2.......-11.5.......129%......132%.......11/1...........no

Tae laidir

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... DUB25 MAX/MIN ..... Y/N

5.5

---

12.9

---

-7.9

---

121

---

88

---

9/5

---

N--

That Scandanavian anticyclone has to collapse sometime?

cherryghost

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
3.5...........9.4........-12.........90%......110%.......4.1/-3........yes

M.T. Cranium

BTTT for visibility ... quick reminder to regular entrants, this monthly contest thread needs your attention, the seasonal forecast is separate and doesn't count here.

DeVore

Snow!




(do I win?)

DeV.

Strasser

MEAN .....3.9 MAX .....9.5 MIN .....-11.2 RAIN .....80% SUN .....115% DUB25 8.4 / 3.5 MAX/MIN ..... N

gothwalk

2.4 ..... 7.1 ..... -14.5 ..... 75% ..... 110% ..... 2/-4 ..... Y

jd

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
3.1..........8.1.......-13.9.......98%......110%.......3.8/-2.1...........Y

John mac

4.7 ..... 10.7 ..... -12.3 ..... 98 ..... 120 ..... 10/4 ..... Y

dasa29

4.2 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.3 ..... 125 ..... 112 ..... 2/-6 ..... Y

SeaFields

4.5..... 8.0 ..... - 10.5..... 60 ..... 110 ..... DUB25 6/-3 ..... Y

mickger844posts

MEAN 4.0 MAX 9.1 MIN -11.8 RAIN 76 SUN 110 DUB25 MAX/MIN 6.2/-1.8 Y

Deep Easterly

8.1.....14.3 ..... -3.0 ..... 60% ..... 150% ..... DUB25 14.0/6.9 ..... Y

5.3 ..... 15 ..... -11 ..... 77 ..... 113 ..... 6/-2.2 ..... N

DOCARCH

4.8c..... 12.8c ..... -11.9c ..... 89% ..... 98% ..... 6.2c/-1.2c ..... N

Lumi

5.0..... 10.5 ..... -11 ..... 80% ..... 92% ..... 7/-1 ..... N

M.T. Cranium

2.6 ..... 11.0 ..... -13.2 ..... 070 ..... 155 ..... 2.0/-3.5 ..... Y

kindredspirit

4.3 ..... 14.6 ..... -10.5 ..... 080 ..... 120 ..... 2/9 ..... N

Danno

(1) mean temperature (IMT) for Dec 4.7c

(2) highest temperature on met.ie stations for Dec 12.7c

(3) lowest temperature on met.ie stations for Dec -14.6c

(4) rainfall (melted precip) as percentage of normal for Dec 65%

(5) sunshine as percentage of normal for Dec 110%

(6) Bonus question -- min and max temperatures at Dublin on 25th. -4.7c/3.4c

(7) Three-point super-bonus -- snow on hourly reports any met.ie station on the 25th? (yes, no) Yes

Sponge Bob

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
3.3..........10.2.......-10.8.......77%......137%.......5/1...........N

harry21

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
5.1..........12.3.......-10.......105%......110%.......4.5/1...........N

Joe Public

4.9 ..... 12.9 ..... -12.9 ..... 139 ..... 89 ..... 9.9/3.9 ..... N

Su Campu

5.4 ..... 12.9 ..... -9.3 ..... 95 ..... 100 ..... 6.8/-0.8 ..... N

WolfeIRE

5.5C .... 9c .... -12.9C .... 110% .... 95% .... 7.5C/1.9C .... N

Rebelbrowser

2.8 ..... 12.7 ..... -10.6..... 88 ..... 105 ..... 4.9/-3.6 ..... Y

waterways

4.7 ..... 12.9 ..... -14 ..... 87 ..... 110 ..... 5.9/2.8 ..... N

thetonynator

I know i entered too early, but can i edit my min again to -13.5?? I really should leave it til today to enter, but i thought i wouldn't get online this week.
And i've heard the latest forecasts . . .:rolleyes:

Speak Now

4.1 ..... 13 ..... -10 ..... 75% ..... 120% ..... 7/-2 ..... N

homolumo

thetonynator wrote: »

I know i entered too early, but can i edit my min again to -13.5?? I really should leave it til today to enter, but i thought i wouldn't get online this week.
And i've heard the latest forecasts . . .:rolleyes:

same here, could not edit my post. -10.9

pauldry

same panic here can I change mine to minus 11.2c

nilhg

4.1C ..... 13.1C ..... -13.1 ..... 89% ..... 100% ..... 8.9C/0.4C ..... N

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts received so far ...

FORECASTER ..... IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN ... 25th ... SNOW
________________________________________________________________

DeepEasterly ..... 8.1 .... 14.3 ..... -3.0 .... 060 .... 150 ... 14.0/6.9 ... Y
Pauldry ............ 5.8 .... 11.0 .... -11.2 .... 108 .... 115 .... 9.0/3.0 .... N
WolfeIRE ........... 5.5 ..... 9.0 .... -12.9 .... 110 .... 095 .... 7.5/1.9 .... N
Tae laidir .......... 5.5 .... 12.9 ..... -7.9 .... 121 .... 088 ..... 9.0/5.0 ... N
Su Campu ......... 5.4 .... 12.9 ..... -9.3 .... 095 .... 100 ..... 6.8/-0.8 .. N
hellboy99 .......... 5.3 .... 15.0 .... -11.0 .... 077 .... 113 .... 6.0/-2.2 ... N
harry21 ............ 5.1 .... 12.3 .... -10.0 .... 105 .... 110 .... 4.5/1.0 .....N
200motels ........ 5.1 .... 13.2 .... -11.5 .... 129 .... 132 ... 11.0/1.0 ... N
Fionagus .......... 5.0 .... 10.5 .... -11.0 .... 080 .... 092 .... 7.0/-1.0 ... N
Joe Public ......... 4.9 .... 12.9 .... -12.9 .... 139 .... 089 ..... 9.9/3.9 ... N
DOCARCH ......... 4.8 .... 12.8 .... -11.9 .... 089 .... 098 .... 6.2/-1.2 ... N
waterways ........ 4.7 .... 12.9 .... -14.0 .... 087 .... 110 .... 5.9/2.8 ... N
danno .............. 4.7 .... 12.7 .... -14.6 .... 065 .... 110 .... 3.4/-4.7 .. Y
John mac .......... 4.7 .... 10.7 .... -12.3 .... 098 .... 120 .... 10.0/4.0 .. Y
homolumo ......... 4.5 ..... 8.3 .... -10.9 .... 099 .... 118 .... 5.8/-1.1 .. Y
SeaFields .......... 4.5 ..... 8.0 .... -10.5 .... 060 .... 110 .... 6.0/-3.0 .. Y
kindredspirit ...... 4.3 .... 14.6 .... -10.5 .... 080 .... 120 .... 9.0/2.0 ... N
Jambofc* ......... 4.3 .... 12.6 ..... -6.3 .... 100 .... 153 ..... 7.2/1.0 ... N

Con Sensus ...... 4.3 .... 11.0 .... -11.3 .... 090 .... 115 .... 6.2/-1.0 ... N

talkabout ......... 4.3 ..... 8.2 ...... -8.9 ..... 097 .... 110 .... 6.7/-1.2 .. Y
dasa29 ............ 4.2 ..... 9.0 ..... -11.3 .... 125 .... 112 .... 2.0/-6.0 .. Y
Nilhg ................ 4.1 .... 13.1 .... -13.1 .... 089 .... 100 .... 8.9/0.4 ... N
Jerry Seinfeld .... 4.1 .... 13.0 .... -10.0 .... 075 .... 120 .... 7.0/-2.0 .. N
baraca ............. 4.1 .... 14.2 .... -11.0 .... 106 .... 125 .... 6.0/-2.0 .. Y
mickger844pst ... 4.0 ..... 9.1 .... -11.8 .... 076 .... 110 .... 6.2/-1.8 .. Y
nacho libre ....... 3.9 ..... 8.7 ..... -9.6 ..... 085 .... 135 .... 7.3/0.3 ... N
Strasser ........... 3.9 ..... 9.5 .... -11.2 .... 080 .... 115 .... 8.4/3.5 ... N
Cherryghost ...... 3.5 ..... 9.4 ..... -12.0 .... 090 .... 110 .... 4.1/-3.0 .. Y
Sponge Bob ...... 3.3 .... 10.2 .... -10.8 .... 077 .... 137 .... 5.0/1.0 .... N
jd ................... 3.1 ..... 8.1 .... -13.9 .... 098 .... 110 .... 3.8/-2.1 ... Y
Thetonynator ... 3.0 .... 10.0 .... -13.9 .... 070 .... 120 .... 6.0/-2.5 ... N
Rebelbrowser .... 2.8 .... 12.7 .... -10.6 .... 088 .... 105 .... 4.9/-3.6 .. Y
M.T. Cranium .... 2.6 .... 11.0 .... -13.2 .... 070 .... 155 .... 2.0/-3.5 ... Y
Gothwalk ......... 2.4 ..... 7.1 ..... -14.5 .... 075 .... 110 .... 2.0/-4.0 ... Y
Redsunset* ...... 2.3 ..... 6.0 .... -19.0 .... 100 .... 130 .... 5.0/-9.0 ... Y
TheInquisitor .... 2.0 ..... 6.0 ..... -12.0 .... 060 .... 120 .... 2.0/-8.0 ... Y

* late entries, subject to penalty if score >60

As of midnight, no further editing allowed ... unless you want to risk the late penalty ... entries accepted through Thursday 2nd at late penalty.

The consensus forecasts are cold, dry, sunny and almost half the contestants think it may snow on the 25th (climatology says 10%).

Joe Public

I think DE is planning on importing some snow or hoping the IMF will bail him out:D

jambofc

MEAN ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... RAIN ..... SUN ..... MAX/MIN ..... Y/N
4.3..........12.6.......-6.3.......100%......153%.......7.2/1...........n

late again sorry

Redsunset

Damn im very late but here goes anyway

2.5, 6 , -19 ,100 , 130, 5 -9, yes

M.T. Cranium

No worries, you two are only "late" not "too late."

It will only cost you if you score >60. Glad to see that everyone (on my list) has returned and now we await the grim verdict of history.

Will be either editing or re-posting the table and moving consensus a little.

pauldry

min so far minus 9.1c Gurteen

Thats after 1 day!

Tonight is already approaching that :eek:

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

min so far minus 9.1c Gurteen

Thats after 1 day!

Tonight is already approaching that :eek:

Its -10 in mullingar on the 11 pm report.

pauldry

how low did it go n met?

thetonynator

Totally irrelevant IMT for the first 2 days of december is -3.86.

:pac:

waterways

pauldry wrote: »

how low did it go n met?

Look here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69360560&postcount=14

Sponge Bob

-10.8 up to Midnight in Mullingar, now stay there willya

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp