Budget will be €7billion: Noonan breaks confidentiality on RTE

kn

Just on Pat Kenny a few minutes ago Michael Noonan revealed that the Dept of Finance in the meeting he had with them told him that the budget would have to be €7billion in order for them to borrow on the markets next year. This was supposed to be a 'confidential' briefing from the Dept in preparation of the budget. Noonan revealed the true budget figure in the context of saying that the ESRI are arguing for a budget of just €4billion whereas the Dept of Finance told him in the briefing that it will be €7billion.

gleep

Where in the name of jaysus are they going to find €7Bn

Is this one of them moves where they exaggerate and then expect us to be relieved when they "only" cut by €5Bn?

who what when

Thats a lot of money to take out of an economy but if they dont have it they cant spend it!

kippy

gleep wrote: »

Where in the name of jaysus are they going to find €7Bn

Is this one of them moves where they exaggerate and then expect us to be relieved when they "only" cut by €5Bn?

If it is it means all parties are using spin and bullcrap to keep the electorate in the dark about the real figures.
Making sure they all get saved.

lucy2010

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

€7bn - where in Gods name will that be cut from ? would love to hear the suggestions.....

sensibleken

If they can find 29 billion for anglo they can find 7 billion. failing that we could sell connacht to someone

gleep

kippy wrote: »

If it is it means all parties are using spin and bullcrap to keep the electorate in the dark about the real figures.
Making sure they all get saved.

Would anyone be surprised?

jmayo

Shure they can follow the lefts ideas, up corporation tax and tax the rich.
Problem solved. :rolleyes:

Nody

lucy2010 wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

€7bn - where in Gods name will that be cut from ? would love to hear the suggestions.....

That is only the start; remember that the gap is 20 Billion and that needs to be covered in cuts and/or income increases (read fees & taxes).

bad2dabone

Last one out of the country please switch out the lights

whatawaster

It should be

€2.5bn off the Public Sector Pay Bill – this is a reduction of about 10%, and should be achieved through redundancies and paycuts. (More too come next year)

€2.5bn off the Welfare bill.
- Similar to UK – no child benefit if household Income over €50,000
- Old Age pension – reduce by 5%, no medical card/other benefits to those with Incomes above €50,000
- Dole – across board cuts of 10%. Sharp reduction in benefits after 6 months and 12 months on dole.
- Reduction in rent allowances

The other 2 billion should be generated through things like Water Charges, reductions in capital expenditure

fenris

No it is more likely to be the usual bit of shock and awe

- 7bn - OMG WTF BBQ
- 5.5bn - better than 7bn, we don't like it it could be worse

instead of - 4bn promised
- 5.5 bn budget - robbing b*stards etc.

In reality there is no need for such games, it is not as if anybody will react anyway, what would it take to trigger French or Greek style protests in Ireland?
joining the commonwealth?

jmayo

sensibleken wrote: »

If they can find 29 billion for anglo they can find 7 billion. failing that we could sell connacht to someone

Connacht is not for sale, we shall secede from the disaster that is the Republic of Ireland.
We shall restore the Republic of Connaught and then we can bring our gas ashore and f*** the rest of ye.
Also seeing how gold is doing so well we can open up that gold vein under Croak Patrick.

Oh we shall repatriate all Dubs and you can keep the flynns seen as they have multiple houses in Dublin.

Poly

Well, fair play to Noonan for keeping us informed.

I'm sure FF will be furious at the leak.

ei.sdraob

there is no choice, 7 billion would bring us only to 10% target :eek:

Note that even if one didn’t factor in negative effects of fiscal adjustments on GDP, then with a Central Bank GDP projection of €162 billion, hitting the original deficit target for 2011 of 10% of GDP would require adjustments of €6.3 billion (162*0.039). Factoring in the contractionary impact of budget cuts on GDP, it would likely take €7 billion in adjustments to get to a 10% target. {in 2011 in next budget}

here

Riskymove

whatawaster wrote: »

It should be

€2.5bn off the Public Sector Pay Bill – this is a reduction of about 10%, and should be achieved through redundancies and paycuts. (More too come next year)

€2.5bn off the PS payroll is a lot more than 10%

its already down to around €17bn I think

I would think that the tacking of the HSE would produce significant savings combined with voluntary redeundancy packages and continuing the ISER will se serioud reduction in posts

I think €2 bn might be achievable but it would require the above along with scrapping of certain quangos and examining pensions

€2.5bn off the Welfare bill.
- Similar to UK – no child benefit if household Income over €50,000
- Old Age pension – reduce by 5%, no medical card/other benefits to those with Incomes above €50,000
- Dole – across board cuts of 10%. Sharp reduction in benefits after 6 months and 12 months on dole.
- Reduction in rent allowances

I'd agree with these, not sure if they come to €2.5bn but certainly thats a reasonable target

The other 2 billion should be generated through things like Water Charges, reductions in capital expenditure

I agree but its inevitable that tax changes will occur

I'd imagine at least €1bn from bringing people into tax net etc

Amhran Nua

who what when wrote: »

Thats a lot of money to take out of an economy but if they dont have it they cant spend it!

Its not technically being taken out of the economy, since it was taken out in the first place by taxation. Depending on where the cuts will happen this might be good or bad news, at least public sector wages put a portion of that back into the economy. Do the banks even count as part of the productive economy any more?

Riskymove

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Its not technically being taken out of the economy, since it was taken out in the first place by taxation.

well firstly a lot of it is borrowed not taken in tax

secondly its not like less tax will be taken

so it really is being taken out of circulation...retail etc are going to be really badly hit....this Christmas particularly as people react to the severe budget

ei.sdraob

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Its not technically being taken out of the economy

you are correct

we will not be borrowing as much

better way of describing what will happen
that puts the debate into a different light altogether now

Riskymove wrote: »

well firstly a lot of it is borrowed not taken in tax

secondly its not like less tax will be taken

so it really is being taken out of circulation...retail etc are going to be really badly hit....this Christmas particularly as people react to the severe budget

Oh for gods sake

this is like turning down the tap (external money flowing in via debt inflow) and reducing the water falling into a pot with very large holes in it (welfare+public spend)

sensibleken

jmayo wrote: »

Connacht is not for sale, we shall secede from the disaster that is the Republic of Ireland.
We shall restore the Republic of Connaught and then we can bring our gas ashore and f*** the rest of ye.
Also seeing how gold is doing so well we can open up that gold vein under Croak Patrick.

Oh we shall repatriate all Dubs and you can keep the flynns seen as they have multiple houses in Dublin.

Hmmm. yeah that makes more sense, any chance i can still go to westport for sessions?

all hail the chidren of Conn!:)

Amhran Nua

Riskymove wrote: »

well firstly a lot of it is borrowed not taken in tax

The borrowings eventually have to be paid back from the tax take.

Riskymove wrote: »

secondly its not like less tax will be taken

True, which is why it might be good or bad news. Actually I'll modify that to "bad or worse" news. Still, it has to be done. I've no confidence in this government to optimise the process though.

Riskymove wrote: »

retail etc are going to be really badly hit....this Christmas particularly as people react to the severe budget

Depends on where the cuts happen.

ei.sdraob

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The borrowings eventually have to be paid back from the tax take.

plus LARGE interest

something the public sector supporters here always ignore

thats money that could be going to improve hospitals, schools and roads and now instead will be paid out to external investors

20Cent

You can bet it will be coming from the weakest and most vulnerable sections of society.

Riskymove

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Oh for gods sake

this is like turning down the tap (external money flowing in via debt inflow) and reducing the water falling into a pot with very large holes in it (welfare+public spend)

I am aware of that..perhaps its the way I put my point or perhaps you are misinterpreting me

my point was that we are borrowing to spend and we need to reduce it

Amhran nua wrote:

The borrowings eventually have to be paid back from the tax take.

I am also aware of that, again , perhaps the point is missed

Depends on where the cuts happen.

I think its inevitable that cuts will happen to welfare and changes to tax take which will reduce pretty much everyone's disposable incomes

Amhran Nua

ei.sdraob wrote: »

plus LARGE interest

something the public sector supporters here always ignore

thats money that could be going to improve hospitals, schools and roads and now instead will be paid out to external investors

Yup, its a thoroughgoing shambles on every front. The only question as mentioned is whether or not the government manages a graceful rolling back of expenditure with a bit of joined up thinking and backup strategies.

I do not hold out much hope.

fargoboyle2010

I am sorry but have we not had enough in this country, people are on there knees, losing houses, getting more and more into trouble with bank managers, money lenders ect ect. This is the time we need to stand up to these people. The Anglo Irish Bank is costing us at least and i mean at least 50 billion euro, for what to save the skins of the goverments mates. We should have insured everyones savings in AIB at the start (it would have cost 2 billion) and let the bank go. The author David mc Williams said lately " to start a econamy we have to start spending not saving", and we as a country are not spending, of which I am also guilty. The goverment are flat out wasting money on make up, drinks parties ect ect. why dont we as a country put a cap on wages of our employees. Mr Cowern gets 240,000 euro a year plus expensise, The President of Ireland gets 300,000 euro a year plus expensise. Barak Obama gets $140,000 a year. See the difference. We are one of the smallest countrys in the world yet we pay ur employees the most. We as a country need to cap wages at 50,000 to 60,000 a year and if they dont wat the job, show them the door. They should be proud to serve our country for the honour of it, Not for Profit.

Ardent

I'm glad that they are aiming for 7 billion in cuts, it's absolutely necessary. But can someone explain to me how in the name of god are they going to achieve it when Harney and Lenihan have said recently that public sector pay will not be touched?? I just don't get how it can be possible?

jprender

Ardent wrote: »

But can someone explain to me how in the name of god are they going to achieve it when Harney and Lenihan have said recently that public sector pay will not be touched??

They are lying.

KerranJast

If they need 7Bn in cuts to be able to borrow next Spring from the markets then that constitutes a serious deterioration in the fiscal situation and there's a clause in the Croke Park Deal to allow the Govt an out.

Ardent

They better be lying, otherwise if they don't follow the UK's example they should be lynched. For economic treason.

johnboy_123

sensibleken wrote: »

If they can find 29 billion for anglo they can find 7 billion. failing that we could sell connacht to someone

By god this is the funniest quote I have seen in ages. Good to seem we have not loast our sense of humour

kn

Ardent wrote: »

I'm glad that they are aiming for 7 billion in cuts, it's absolutely necessary. But can someone explain to me how in the name of god are they going to achieve it when Harney and Lenihan have said recently that public sector pay will not be touched?? I just don't get how it can be possible?

Thats the $64000 question right there. If you exclude PS pay and pensions the €7billion has to come from just €35billion in net spending and taxes - we will have to cut the equivalent of 20% from non pay public services in just one year, the UK announcement yesterday is not even doing that much over 4 years.

I suspect the balance will be €5billion in spending cuts and €2billion in taxes. The taxes element will mainly come from the slashing of the personal tax credit and the cutting of a range of reliefs.

The €5billion spending cuts will come in €1.5billion in capital spending, €1.5billion from social welfare, €1billion from health and €1billion from the remaining government departments.

That is how it will shape up.

mikemac

fargoboyle2010 wrote: »

Barak Obama gets $140,000 a year. See the difference.

You're making up these figures, it's $400,000

jmayo wrote: »

Connacht is not for sale, we shall secede from the disaster that is the Republic of Ireland.
We shall restore the Republic of Connaught and then we can bring our gas ashore and f*** the rest of ye.

Cromwell used to sell people as slaves to Barbados and send more to Connacht.
Maybe we call sell off Connacht

Max Power1

20Cent wrote: »

You can bet it will be coming from the weakest and most vulnerable sections of society.

Yep.

Those "vulnerable" members of society who can "earn" more than the minimum wage from their "career" on the dole for example?

Or would your example of a "vulnerable" member of society be a wealthy pensioner from south dublin who qualifies automatically for a medical card and other perks regardless of means?


Pull the other one ffs. We need cuts and we need them to be made yesterday.

johnboy_123

Can the croker agreement really be kept in tact if its 7 billion. Most commontaters seem to think that the croker agreement will be still in place until next year... I find it hard to fathom that socail welfare will be cut and the public sector pay will be left in tact. A bad pill to swallow really!

seamus

If they can find 29 billion for anglo they can find 7 billion. failing that we could sell connacht to someone

Where will we get the other €6.5bn?

Not sure if this is entirely shocking - newtalk reported this morning (8am) that €15bn has to be cut over 4 years, but half of this would have to be cut this year. So somebody else has said it before Noony.

Bye-bye CPA. I think this qualifies to enact the get-out clause from the golden shackles. 10% across the board I reckon would do it. 10% off the public sector through redundancies and whatever else will give us €2bn. 10% off the welfare bill will give us another 2 - 2.5bn. Abolish the PAYE tax credit - this will drag lots of people kicking and screaming into the tax net and will bring in about €2bn.

That leaves just 1 - 1.5bn to cut from capital spending and non-payroll public bills.

In reality, they should aim for more like €9bn in cuts and they might actually manage to make €7bn in cuts by the time the hangers-on and unions have argued it down.

20Cent

Max Power1 wrote: »

Yep.

Those "vulnerable" members of society who can "earn" more than the minimum wage from their "career" on the dole for example?

Or would your example of a "vulnerable" member of society be a wealthy pensioner from south dublin who qualifies automatically for a medical card and other perks regardless of means?


Pull the other one ffs. We need cuts and we need them to be made yesterday.

I mean people with special needs kids, community organisations, single parents etc. These are the people who will end up paying. All fine in right wing world. Massive multinationals making billions, those who benefited from the property bubble, the rich won't make a jot of difference to them.

Riskymove

Ardent wrote: »

They better be lying, otherwise if they don't follow the UK's example they should be lynched. For economic treason.

what's the UK example?

rumour

fargoboyle2010 wrote: »

I am sorry but have we not had enough in this country, people are on there knees, losing houses, getting more and more into trouble with bank managers, money lenders ect ect. This is the time we need to stand up to these people. ......................................... We as a country need to cap wages at 50,000 to 60,000 a year and if they dont wat the job, show them the door. They should be proud to serve our country for the honour of it, Not for Profit.

I agree. However I'm noticing a new found I think desperate support for Fine Gael in the absense of anything credible. It is worth remembering Kenny thinks there's nothing wrong with having his teachers pension.
If he can morally justify that to himself I wonder what else he is capable of.
It is this type of moral ambiguity we need to be rid of if we want any change in this country.

johnboy_123

Riskymove wrote: »

what's the UK example?

UK example is cutting the Public sector by 81 billion through redundancies and slashing of the wage bill

Riskymove

johnboy_123 wrote: »

UK example is cutting the Public sector by 81 billion through redundancies and slashing of the wage bill

is it?

they are reducing the number of jobs by about 490,000 but most of that will be through natural wastage...over 4-5 years I might add...the same approach to here really

I am not aware of paycuts being introduced

BeeDI

feelingstressed wrote: »

You're making up these figures, it's $400,000



Cromwell used to sell people as slaves to Barbados and send more to Connacht.
Maybe we call sell off Connacht

Shouldn't we sell Brian O Driscoll, before his knees give up:cool:
While we are at it, we could throw in Robbei Keane, he is worth, f>*k all anyway:rolleyes:

Sgt. Bilko 09

They said there cutting 1billion from the HSE account.

But it shows the true colours of fianna FAIL not one of them are willing to take a pay cut the government advisors salarys was brought into question yesterday on prime time.

A government advisors earns 850,000 per year were as in other eu countries a government advisors salary varies between 80,000 euros to 100,000 euros i.e. germany, spain.

Why are these people been paid this amount nd not taking pay cuts?

Government advisors giving bad advise with a gulabul minister advise only good things can happen for them

Nijmegen

It is possible that Fine Gael is providing the government with political cover here.

We're so used to hearing "It'll be €5bn... No, wait, it's €4.5, you can all heave a sigh" from the government that they may now need other sources to do it for them.

Seeing as how FF will be going out of power soon, and the budget needs to pass one way or the other, FG might be doing the government a favour.

sarumite

20Cent wrote: »

You can bet it will be coming from the weakest and most vulnerable sections of society.

Currently thats a very large proportion of society.

Riskymove

Sgt. Bilko 09 wrote: »

A government advisors earns 850,000 per year were as in other eu countries a government advisors salary varies between 80,000 euros to 100,000 euros i.e. germany, spain.

Why are these people been paid this amount nd not taking pay cuts?

the €800,000 odd refers to the salaries of 8 people combined not 1 person

Nijmegen

Riskymove wrote: »

the €800,000 odd refers to the salaries of 8 people combined not 1 person

6 people. Still, per head it's more than the average salary of an SMB managing director (€120,000)

Riskymove

Nijmegen wrote: »

It is possible that Fine Gael is providing the government with political cover here.

We're so used to hearing "It'll be €5bn... No, wait, it's €4.5, you can all heave a sigh" from the government that they may now need other sources to do it for them.

Seeing as how FF will be going out of power soon, and the budget needs to pass one way or the other, FG might be doing the government a favour.

its totally in FG's interest that as many cuts as possible are made before they take over so they dont have to wield the axe and thus the bad news

johnboy_123

Riskymove wrote: »

is it?

they are reducing the number of jobs by about 490,000 but most of that will be through natural wastage...over 4-5 years I might add...the same approach to here really

I am not aware of paycuts being introduced

Well thats the figure being quoted

Riskymove

johnboy_123 wrote: »

Well thats the figure being quoted

what figure? the 81bn?

thats what the measures will total, they do not all relate to PS pay, far from it

for example €5bn of it relates to raising the retirement age from 65 to 66

johnboy_123

Riskymove wrote: »

what figure? the 81bn?

thats what the measures will total, they do not all relate to PS pay, far from it

for example €5bn of it relates to raising the retirement age from 65 to 66

Probably it does state that 1/2 million jobs in there public sector to go?