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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch: Autumn 2010

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    this is only the outer edge of that band
    http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

    click on nedbor to see rain forecast


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    km79 wrote: »
    is this the band of heavy/thundery showers mentioned in forecast for late afternoon or is there another band to follow?

    This is roughly where the main trough is lying at the moment:

    132573.jpg

    so expect showers right up til evening at least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    the sun (remember that?) trying to break through at 1.30pm
    132576.jpg

    heavy showers moving in
    3hr-rain.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Demonic skies moving over. One very intense burst of rain lasting all but 10 seconds. Very black now.

    Edit: Wind stopped. eerie silence. Black with lowering scud which is moving at a pace that belies the calm conditons on the ground.

    Edit: rain, but not too heavy. Come on for God sake!!!

    Edit: pepping up a little but not by much. So dark have to put lights on.

    Edit: Stopped raining again! Thundery tone to the light.

    Edit: White dense fall streaks to my west. Move this way please.

    Edit: Ice cream van in the distance playing a spooky ding a ling tune and a dog baking as well. Still black but only dribs and drabs of rain.

    Edit: Still black but raining at an intensity I would associate with a weak warm front trapped under a high pressure cell. Yet another flop it seems.

    Edit: Brightning up after a what looked like so much, but gave so little. Roll on 2011.

    Edit: Dog offers me freshly baked biscuit to comfort me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    recent hail at belmullet and recent thunder at valentia
    http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

    strikes recorded off kerry coast in past hour


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Demonic skies moving over. One very intense burst of rain lasting all but 10 seconds. Very black now.

    Edit: Wind stopped. eerie silence. Black with lowering scud which is moving at a pace that belies the calm conditons on the ground.

    Edit: rain, but not too heavy. Come on for God sake!!!

    Edit: pepping up a little but not by much. So dark have to put lights on.

    Edit: Stopped raining again! Thundery tone to the light.

    Edit: White dense fall streaks to my west. Move this way please.

    Edit: Ice cream van in the distance playing a spooky ding a ling tune and a dog baking as well. Still black but only dribs and drabs of rain.


    Mmmmmm, what's he baking - dog biscuits? :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Raging wind now!!!!!!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Demonic skies moving over. One very intense burst of rain lasting all but 10 seconds. Very black now.

    Edit: Wind stopped. eerie silence. Black with lowering scud which is moving at a pace that belies the calm conditons on the ground.

    Edit: rain, but not too heavy. Come on for God sake!!!

    Edit: pepping up a little but not by much. So dark have to put lights on.

    Edit: Stopped raining again! Thundery tone to the light.

    Edit: White dense fall streaks to my west. Move this way please.

    Edit: Ice cream van in the distance playing a spooky ding a ling tune and a dog baking as well. Still black but only dribs and drabs of rain.

    Edit: Still black but raining at an intensity I would associate with a weak warm front trapped under a high pressure cell. Yet another flop it seems.

    Edit: Brightning up after a what looked like so much, but gave so little. Roll on 2011.

    Edit: Dog offers me freshly baked biscuit to comfort me.

    I'd ease off on the auld 'flu meds there P :D:D:D
    Dry and bright in Galway - 'demonic skies' staying well to the north


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    heavy showers passing here in cork.:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Fionagus wrote: »
    I'd ease off on the auld 'flu meds there P :D:D:D
    Dry and bright in Galway - 'demonic skies' staying well to the north

    Your right, I am little zapped out on Nurofen Plus at the moment!!! :p


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I'm sitting at Dublin Airport waiting on a flight to arrive and it's just starting to get frisky, dark solid line of black approaching from the west, even the departing pilots are asking for early left turns to avoid it.


  • Hosted Moderators Posts: 3,290 ✭✭✭TomTom


    Sitting here in the office, rain doing my head in, you are correct about the lightning, although mayo and sligo are the most active places in the county today by far. Only one strike off kerry so far.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    A couple of flashes and one loud booming rumble of thunder here in the last 10 mins.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    A couple of flashes and one loud booming rumble of thunder here in the last 10 mins.

    Heavy, driving rain and strong SW'ly winds in Galway. One distant rumble of thunder a few mins ago but nothing since. Great evening to be walking home :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Fionagus wrote: »
    Heavy, driving rain and strong SW'ly winds in Galway. One distant rumble of thunder a few mins ago but nothing since. Great evening to be walking home :(

    Yep, shower is really intense. Wait til its over F. Shouldn't be long.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    heavy hail shower here, very strong sw winds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Sky looks so weird over Galway city it's lashing more than ever at the same time you can see the sun setting :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Same here Hooter. Big rainbow as well. Thunder has stopped. Only the 3rd day of observed thunder here this year. Still, better than nothing. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Sky looks so weird over Galway city it's lashing more than ever at the same time you can see the sun setting :pac:


    PICTURE? :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Sky looks so weird over Galway city it's lashing more than ever at the same time you can see the sun setting :pac:
    Same here Hooter. Big rainbow as well. Thunder has stopped. Only the 3rd day of observed thunder here this year. Still, better than nothing. :)

    The sky is just incredible in Galway - it was worth getting soaked :D
    Took these photos with the phone within minutes of each other but they're not great unfortunately - the first one looking SW with the sun setting and the second SE & the magnificant double rainbow.
    827f5ec1-1.jpg


    b2c36e35.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Fionagus wrote: »
    The sky is just incredible in Galway - it was worth getting soaked :D
    Took these photos with the phone but they're not great - the first one looking SW with the sun setting and the second SE & the magnificant double rainbow.


    2nd one is great... u can edit ur post to hav the pics come up on the page instead of clicking into them once ya hav them uploaded, just open ur pics and on a seperate window copy the url into the url picture part.... if that makes any sense ha :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭Takeshi_Kovacs


    Getting some heavy rain, and now thunder and lightning down here


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    hope we get lightning here in dub have not seen any in long time:(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    ESTOFEX have a big fat Level 1 warning issued for us for strong gusts and tornadoes tomorrow. I'd say it's a bit optimistic, but let's hope I'm wrong.

    http://www.estofex.org/

    showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2010110206_201010311933_2_stormforecast.xml
    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Mon 01 Nov 2010 06:00 to Tue 02 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Sun 31 Oct 2010 19:33
    Forecaster: DAHL


    A level 1 was issued for the British Isles for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    A level 2 was issued for NE Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.

    A level 2 was issued for S Italy mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes and to a lesser extent for large hail and excessive rainfall.

    SYNOPSIS

    A seasonably strong meandering upper frontal zone is stretching from the Atlantic across the northern parts of Europe into Russia. An intense jet streak imbedded in this frontal zone, and an attendant SFC cold front are expected to cross the British Isles late in the period. Meanwhile... the western European long-wave trough will be closing off into a cut-off cyclone, migrating into the central Mediterranean on Monday.

    DISCUSSION

    British Isles

    In along the cold front that is to cross the British Isles on Monday and Monday night ... a strongly-forced line of convection is anticipated. For the given situation, the models indicate an unsusually clear signal in the CAPE/ICAPE fields. Confidence is thus rather high that a line of convection will indeed form. As usually happens with such quasi-linear convective systems ... widespread strong/severe wind gusts are to be expected, along with tornadoes associated with bow echoes/line segments. It currently seems that the majority of the gusts will be only marginally (sub)severe, so that a LVL1 should be sufficient. Comparatively shallow cellular convection is anticipated in the wake of the front. Strong wind gusts may accompany the strongest of these showers/thunderstorms.


    Central Mediterranean

    There seem to be two foci for potentially severe weather. The northern focus appears to be tied to warm advection and possibly also to orographic forcing. CAPE and shear should be rather weak, but strong mesoscale ascent should support large amounts of rain, augmented by imbedded convective cells. The latest WRF runs place the highest precip/flood threat over extreme NE Italy.

    Farther south ... 25 m/s deep shear will be in place, along with 10 to 15 m/s low-level shear. Overall, CAPE seems to be seasonably weak (a few 100 J/kg), but given decent large- and mesoscale forcing as well as the favorable shear, well-organized storms are anticipated.
    Forecast hodographs show partly strong low-level curvature, suggesting that chances for persistent supercells exist. However, rather strong forcing and weak capping suggest that storms may rapidly coagulate into clusters and/or lines or line segments. The main threats should thus be severe wind gusts and probably a few tornadoes, along with excessive convective rainfall. Any persistent isolated supercell would in addition pose a threat for large hail. The severe threat may last well into Monday night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 183 ✭✭IMC042


    Torro.org.uk havent said anything in ages, and no warning for tomorrow either!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    With all of the focus on Sunday night, don't forget we should get some hefty showers, possibly thundery, tomorrow.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,533 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Some activity all right from those showers.

    http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    The heaviest showers should be moving eastwards across the northern half of the country, where the coldest upper temperatures are. Munster should escape relatively lightly.


This discussion has been closed.
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