Banking Crisis Part 2

JONJO THE MISER

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

My advice is have money on hand to survive at least 6 months, stock up on flour, rice and canned goods, buy candles and lots of batteries so you can survive rolling blackouts.
Now people might think im over reacting but im telling ye folks the possibilty of a full scale collapse of the Irish banking system and economy is very real in the coming weeks/months.

starlit

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

My advice is have money on hand to survive at least 6 months, stock up on flour rice and canned goods, buy candles and lots of batteries so you can survive rolling blackouts.
Now people might think im over reacting but im telling ye folks the possibilty of a full scale collapse of the Irish banking system and economy is very real in the coming weeks/months.

Has that not already happened though? I mean Anglo Irish Bank have technically bankcrupt the country though?

The worse is yet to come though, don't ya fret jonjo.

Yakult

I will make sure to have popcorn when it happens.

dr.bollocko

I wonder is it best to charge like 20 bucks for quick BJs or take my time over them and charge 100.
Everyone's after a bargain in today's economy but quality sells too.

I would disagree with your assessment btw.

Wolfe Tone

I have kind of stopped caring tbh. When the end comes then I will believe you.

goat2

is this a bit over the top

dvpower

What's flour rice? Is it like rice flour?

Royal Seahawk

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

My advice is have money on hand to survive at least 6 months, stock up on flour rice and canned goods, buy candles and lots of batteries so you can survive rolling blackouts.
Now people might think im over reacting but im telling ye folks the possibilty of a full scale collapse of the Irish banking system and economy is very real in the coming weeks/months.

Not if you have a permanent and pensionable job for life!;)

dan719

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

My advice is have money on hand to survive at least 6 months, stock up on flour rice and canned goods, buy candles and lots of batteries so you can survive rolling blackouts.
Now people might think im over reacting but im telling ye folks the possibilty of a full scale collapse of the Irish banking system and economy is very real in the coming weeks/months.

Western countries don't just collapse. We may have to go cap in hand to the IMF/EU for bailouts, which will no doubt have punitiative conditions attached, but the armageddon you envisage simply won't happen. Mainly because an Irish default could seriously damage the Euro, and zee Germans simply won't allow that to happen.

minidazzler

dr.bollocko wrote: »

I wonder is it best to charge like 20 bucks for quick BJs or take my time over them and charge 100.
Everyone's after a bargain in today's economy but quality sells too.

I would disagree with your assessment btw.

20, that way you get loads of warm fluids when it gets cold!

Sticky_Fingers

dan719 wrote: »

Western countries don't just collapse. We may have to go cap in hand to the IMF/EU for bailouts, which will no doubt have punitiative conditions attached, but the armageddon you envisage simply won't happen. Mainly because an Irish default could seriously damage the Euro, and zee Germans simply won't allow that to happen.

Tell that to Argentina, one of the most wealthiest countries in South America with a standard of living comparable to our own.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29

This blog shows whats its like to live in a country whose economy has failed completely. Some very interesting and downright scary stories in this blog
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2009/03/argentinas-economic-collapse.html

JONJO THE MISER

20 Billion of Irish bonds need to be rolled over by the goverment this month, this is really serious folks, looks like there is going to me mass cutting of budgets, welfare and culling of the civil service:eek:.

The Agogo

I remember when the third quarter 2008 came in Ireland..

I was like "Duck and run...the recession is coming"

Just like in South Park....and Urkle.

mikom

Will this affect "X factor"?

cherryghost

Sticky_Fingers wrote: »

Tell that to Argentina, one of the most wealthiest countries in South America with a standard of living comparable to our own.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29

This blog shows whats its like to live in a country whose economy has failed completely. Some very interesting and downright scary stories in this blog
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2009/03/argentinas-economic-collapse.html

Comparable? Don't make me laugh. Argentina is a dump. Always was, always has been.

The Agogo

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

20 Billion of Irish bonds need to be rolled over by the goverment this month, this is really serious folks, looks like there is going to me mass cutting of budgets, welfare and culling of the civil service:eek:.

And not a moment too soon

dan719

Sticky_Fingers wrote: »

Tell that to Argentina, one of the most wealthiest countries in South America with a standard of living comparable to our own.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29

This blog shows whats its like to live in a country whose economy has failed completely. Some very interesting and downright scary stories in this blog
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2009/03/argentinas-economic-collapse.html

Maybe if you read my post, you'd notice I'd mentioned the EU. :rolleyes:

To compare Argentina and Ireland is diningenuous on several levels such as;

wealth distribution
political system

and so on.........

Check out the second search result

http://www.google.ie/#hl=en&source=hp&q=ntma+has+already+covered+borrowing+requirement+for+2010&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&fp=c005d735c107fba1

Einhard

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

My advice is have money on hand to survive at least 6 months, stock up on flour, rice and canned goods, buy candles and lots of batteries so you can survive rolling blackouts.
Now people might think im over reacting but im telling ye folks the possibilty of a full scale collapse of the Irish banking system and economy is very real in the coming weeks/months.

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

20 Billion of Irish bonds need to be rolled over by the goverment this month, this is really serious folks, looks like there is going to me mass cutting of budgets, welfare and culling of the civil service:eek:.

The Sky Is Falling, Run To The Hills!!:eek::eek::eek:


Jeez Jonjo, i'd say your a great man to have around in a crisis!!

30H!3

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

20 Billion of Irish bonds need to be rolled over by the goverment this month, this is really serious folks, looks like there is going to me mass cutting of budgets, welfare and culling of the civil service:eek:.

Where are you getting all this sh1te from, please provide a link to a reputable newspaper article or at least provide some logic for the basis of your scaremongering.

Edit - The EU has just extended the bank guarantee today which covers business deposits, interbank loans, and other securities.

The €20 billion you are referring to is an annual budget deficit owed to international banks and bondholders. They aren't putting the pressure on us just yet, knowing they will be repaid with huge interest considering Ireland's poor S&P rating.

So yea... what exactly are you talking about?

-Trek-

So if Ireland defaults, does some-one repossess Ireland and throw us all out.

Einhard

30H!3 wrote: »

Where are you getting all this sh1te from, please provide a link to a reputable newspaper article or at least provide some logic for the basis of your scaremongering.

You're deluding yourself!! This is happening right now!! This is like 2012 times 50 billion!!! The Road times 100 billion!!

/cracks open 30H!3's skull and feasts on the goo inside

Mr Cawley

How can I profit from this?

and Will it effect 'X factor'?

Snowie

yep and don't forget the world is going to end in 2012 eoither way so lets no worry to much folks......

gizmo

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

I've heard lots of things first on AH, a large proportion of them turned out to be total ****e though...

Wertz

I just got back from the local ATM and there's no money in it! JONJO is right!
Sell Mortimer, sell!

*runs in circles*

JONJO THE MISER

There is a big thread over on another forum, one poster there has been told that
BBC & Sky have put crews on standby in Ireland in the event this escalates:eek:

Anita Blow

Sticky_Fingers wrote: »

Tell that to Argentina, one of the most wealthiest countries in South America with a standard of living comparable to our own.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_%281999%E2%80%932002%29

This blog shows whats its like to live in a country whose economy has failed completely. Some very interesting and downright scary stories in this blog
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2009/03/argentinas-economic-collapse.html

And what major currency and economic union is Argentina in?

Anita Blow

Also, please stop the with the "stack up on rice, bread" comments etc.

The downright scaremongering by the media and some of the public on certain issues is ridiculous. We had these sort of comments 2 years ago.
"In 6 months Ireland will have collapsed"
"Dole will hit 500,000 by the end of 2009"
etc.
Never happened. When it does, I'll worry

IT'S IN REVELATIONS PEOPLE!

Augmerson

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Yields on Irish ten year bonds have gone crazy all day, this could well be beginning of the end for Ireland inc, ye were warned here first.

My advice is have money on hand to survive at least 6 months, stock up on flour, rice and canned goods, buy candles and lots of batteries so you can survive rolling blackouts.
Now people might think im over reacting but im telling ye folks the possibilty of a full scale collapse of the Irish banking system and economy is very real in the coming weeks/months.

LOL

cherryghost

Thing is even if our country did spiral into economic turmoil, the fact that we're under euro currency bails us out, just like Greece. Right? RIGHT!?

Sea Sharp

EVERYBODY, IF THIS HAPPENS THEN ALL THE MONEY YOU HAVE IN THE BANK WILL BE GONE. TELL YOUR FRIENDS AND YOUR FAMILY TO GO DOWN TO THE BANK AND TAKE OUT ALL OF THEIR SAVINGS OR THEY'LL BE LOST FOREVER.




/sits back with popcorn and watches to see if I've triggered a run on the banks.

dvpower

Anita Blow wrote: »

Also, please stop the with the "stack up on rice, bread" comments etc.

The downright scaremongering by the media and some of the public on certain issues is ridiculous. We had these sort of comments 2 years ago.
"In 6 months Ireland will have collapsed"
"Dole will hit 500,000 by the end of 2009"
etc.
Never happened. When it does, I'll worry

Best get some worry beads ready, just to be safe.

Irish Times wrote:

The Central Statistics Office said the adjusted Live Register rose to 452,500 last month, with a net figure of about 1,700 more people signing on each week.

whitesands

30H!3 wrote: »

Where are you getting all this sh1te from, please provide a link to a reputable newspaper article or at least provide some logic for the basis of your scaremongering.

Edit - The EU has just extended the bank guarantee today which covers business deposits, interbank loans, and other securities.

The €20 billion you are referring to is an annual budget deficit owed to international banks and bondholders. They aren't putting the pressure on us just yet, knowing they will be repaid with huge interest considering Ireland's poor S&P rating.

So yea... what exactly are you talking about?

The yield on Irish bonds hit a record high this morning, ie bond investors betting on us defaulting & billions € leaving the country.
The ECB then intervened & started buying bonds to stop the yields sky rocketing. Irish GOV is then forced to extend the bank guarantee to stop a run on the banks.
This all happened today, the result? Can kicked another 3 months down the road, it's going to be some christmas :eek:

Sea Sharp

dvpower wrote: »

Best get some worry beads ready, just to be safe.

Don't forget about the FAS wasters messin' up the statistics

Wertz

Sea Sharp wrote: »

/sits back with popcorn and watches to see if I've triggered a run on the banks.

You'll have to wait until 10am tomorrow. I hate cold popcorn.

Hank_Jones

Part 2?

I would think we are much farther than part 2 at this stage.

Part 2379 maybe, but not part two.

whitesands

Mr Cawley wrote: »

How can I profit from this?

Short irish bonds & the €

Mr Cawley wrote: »

and Will it effect 'X factor'?

Definitely, in the event of a default, the morons who watch X factor will unlikely have the means to pay for electricity to watch this nonsense

Anita Blow

dvpower wrote: »

Best get some worry beads ready, just to be safe.

In January the Seasonally Adjusted register was 434,700, so in the 9 months till now there has been an increase of 17,800.
At that pace it would take 2 years to reach 500,000.
So I'll keep more worry beads in the drawer for the moment

dasdog

Royal Seahawk wrote: »

Not if you have a permanent and pensionable job for life!;)

I'm not having a go at the PS, but the ECB/IMF will be most likely be the ones bailing us out next year and they will be the ones deciding where the cuts are made. You can forget all agreements the unions have bargained to-date.

brianthebard

Jonjo says the economy's going to fail, therefore the recovery has definitely started.

Gummy Panda

I really have got to stop reading AH and Jonjo's posts.

Gummy Panda

From the Irish Times - linkage

Irish bond spreads widened today and yields inched above 6 per cent, rising above the peaks reached at the height of the sovereign debt crisis in early May.

The spread between the benchmark 10-year bond and the German bund was 372 basis points this afternoon, while the yield earlier rose sharply, by over 30 points, to a new euro lifetime high of 6.011 per cent at one stage, before falling back to 5.98 per cent at 5pm.

This compares with a yield of 5.68 per cent a week ago and is now almost three times higher than equivalent German bonds, the lowest yielding bonds in the euro zone.

Analysts said the jump in Irish bonds appeared to be an over-reaction but such an extreme move puts further pressure on Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and the European Commission to put a final price on Anglo's bailout and its future.

The increase in Irish borrowing costs will also make it more costly for Irish banks to refinance billions of euros in debt this month.

Although the National Treasury Management Agency is holding an auction for between €400 million and €600 million of Treasury bills on Thursday, the Government’s own funding needs for this year have largely been secured in a series of monthly auctions giving Mr Lenihan at least some breathing space while he negotiates with Brussels.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen insisted today the economic situation was not out of control. "It is clear that we have to deal with the situation, which we believe is manageable," he told reporters in Dublin. "There has been turbulence generally in the international bond markets for some time and you have seen ebbs and flows in terms of sentiment."

Mr Lenihan is currently in Brussels, meeting with his EU counterparts. He met EU competition commissioner Joaquín Almunia yesterday to discuss the future of Anglo Irish Bank.

Bond yields have risen considerably in the past few months, fuelled in part by investor concerns and downgrades by ratings agencies.

This afternoon, the Portuguese-German spread reached 355 basis points, also a record, from 333 basis points. The Greek-German 10-year yield spread reached 947 basis points.

Concern some European nations are struggling to narrow their deficits sent the German bund yield to a record low and widened the spreads for the bonds of the most-indebted nations soaring.

The Greek-German spread reached a record 973 basis points on May 7th, the day before the European Union and International Monetary Fund crafted a region-wide bailout package to ward off investors betting on the break-up of the euro.

ejmaztec

Jonjo would make a fucking fortune, if he were to market himself as a cure for constipation.:P

Ulysses Gaze

cherryghost wrote: »

Comparable? Don't make me laugh. Argentina is a dump. Always was, always has been.

Up until 15 years ago, we would have been considered a complete tip as well run by corrupt Gangsters who feathered their own nests at the taxpayers expense.

Just because we are in Europe, doesn't make us any more sophisticated than the Argies

Ulysses Gaze

cherryghost wrote: »

Thing is even if our country did spiral into economic turmoil, the fact that we're under euro currency bails us out, just like Greece. Right? RIGHT!?

Do the Germans a) have the money and b) the will to bail us out?

One of the PIIGS is going to be allowed fail....there just isn't money enough to bail them all out.

JonJoeDali

Behind the scenes, Lenihan has given up the country's economic sovereignty.

He's a lacky in a €1,000 suit who's job in life is to deliver spin in front a camera.

bryaner

A well I'm sick of it all..

mickydoomsux

Time for the cyanide pills lads.

You first!

Voltex

JonJoeDali wrote: »

Behind the scenes, Lenihan has given up the country's economic sovereignty.

He's a lacky in a €1,000 suit who's job in life is to deliver spin in front a camera.

Id have to disagree...he seems to be the only politician with the grit and balls to make an effort to get us out of this bloody mess (i.e with the Bank garuntee).

Did anyone watch the RTE doc Freefall last night?

One thing that I do know...and that this economic crisis will go down in history. Economic and banking theory which was developed to an unbelieveable level, was supposed to be insuring and protecting us...but it has failed on a spectacular level.

We will get through this...and a new normality will be accepted, but what we also need is a national effort....maybe even the development of special purpose National Bond.

galwayrush

So now it's no longer attractive for foreign investors Irish Banks to buy up Irish Bonds( with tax payers bail out money) to pretend things are improving....................:rolleyes: