Which sport is best to bet on?

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

tbh i do follow a lot of your tips when i get a chance and they're good,my point is this,my father has owned horses before and when the horse was ready to win or place i can tell you for sure u wouldn't have picked it out,no matter how much you study you don't know as much as you need to know(i.e ,how the horse is,what he's trained like that week) and that's a fact
you say you make money at it,i have no doubt you do ok at it,better than most but you don't make money on it,i wouldn't jinx ya by starting to follow all your fancies but if i did you would not be making a profit

I don't go for fancy 20/1 shots that may or may not be lined out for the race though. I go for horses who are proven winners, Or at least retain enough ability to win said race. Whether they by 5/1 or even money. Not every horse is lined up to win a certain race. I've my fair share of losers but I DO make money from it, Infact quite a nice sum since I started following it 24/7. I don't know how you can claim I don't make money on it when I've logged 99% of the bets I've done in the last 6 months, And I've only been backing and following horses properly for that time. You don't need to know every little detail about a horse to tell if it has a chance or not, Form and other factors usually tell the full story.

Plus you wouldn't be jinxing me if you backed any of them. I've more than doubled my bank due to selective staking and if I keep that little bit of luck and keep picking them using the same methods it'll continue.

Verance

heavyballs wrote: »

listen we all know what your record is like backing horses,pretty c*ap tbh,

Yeah? :eek:

heavyballs wrote: »

oh and btw don't assume anything about my knowledge or horses,my father is involved in the game and i back his horses,that's all

But you still don't make money from them? Like I said, trainers are usually very bad tipsters.

heavyballs

heavyballs wrote: »

get real will ya,you will not make money on backing gg's unless you are one of the following,a jockey agent,jockey or trainer,you can study form till the cows come home,not worth a f..ck especially if you're backing in hcp's etc,if you just backed in the big races(where everyone is tryin)you'd have half a chance

Sorry dude, I'm not a jockey, I'm not an agent or trainer yet I have been making a consistent few quid from horse race betting for the last year or so. I bet mainly on handicaps and very very rarely in the big races. Now I have a job and an income so I don't try to make a living from it, nor would I attempt to.

In fairness I know where you're coming from as I used to think the same as you. I see it like going to college except this particular course only a small percentage graduate.

Regarding your Dad, unfortunately to make a living trainers need owners, most horses are p1ss poor but the trainers keep feeding the dream to the owners.

I'm not at all wanting to argue but when one eventually sees years of studying form and whatnot coming together the muck you posted in bold doesn't go down well.

Also I have no intention of posting up my bets so you can believe I am losing my bollix and telling lies if you want.

heavyballs

RoverJames wrote: »

Sorry dude, I'm not a jockey, I'm not an agent or trainer yet I have been making a consistent few quid from horse race betting for the last year or so. I bet mainly on handicaps and very very rarely in the big races. Now I have a job and an income so I don't try to make a living from it, nor would I attempt to.

In fairness I know where you're coming from as I used to think the same as you. I see it like going to college except this particular course only a small percentage graduate.

.

well that's a weird one,why would you back mainly on hcp's? a system perfectly suited to a fair bit of sheistin,you really reckon if you've a h'cap for say €5k every horse is out there to win,give me a break

at least with a graded race with a decent pot you know they're trying,look at the prices of winners of hcaps in Chelt for e.g,the bookies don't have a clue because of trainers/owners holding horses back for the big pots

come on i can't be on my own with this view

you actually have the answer yourself, quite often the bookies dont have a clue, so often there is valve. I trust the handicapper is doing his job fairly well and look for factors going in the horses favour, mainly trip and the going, recent form that appears poor is often just highlighting what the horse needs to go well. I never back a horse that has nt won before and i dont go along with ifs, if the extra furlong doesnt inconvenience etc etc. Also i never said i reckon every horse is out there to win, that balances itself out though.

since i've started . . . . . I have very strict criteria, out of 3 hc races one likely bet would be a lot. I dont second guess my system, if nothing fits i dont go fudging so i have a bet.

heavyballs

RoverJames wrote: »

you actually have the answer yourself, quite often the bookies dont have a clue, so often there is valve. I trust the handicapper is doing his job fairly well and look for factors going in the horses favour, mainly trip and the going, recent form that appears poor is often just highlighting what the horse needs to go well. I never back a horse that has nt won before and i dont go along with ifs, if the extra furlong doesnt inconvenience etc etc. Also i never said i reckon every horse is out there to win, that balances itself out though.

ok,i take your point,but i never said there wasn't value,the problem is pickin out the value,and what i'm trying to say is that there are too many variables including non triers to make a profit on backing horses over any length of time over say 2 weeks

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

ok,i take your point,but i never said there wasn't value,the problem is pickin out the value,and what i'm trying to say is that there are too many variables including non triers to make a profit on backing horses over any length of time over say 2 weeks

How can you say that ?. I know I keep harping on about this but I've made a profit over 6 months (And a fairly large one). Therefore that's your theory out the window. It's easily do-able if you put in the time and effort.

heavyballs

x PyRo wrote: »

How can you say that ?. I know I keep harping on about this but I've made a profit over 6 months (And a fairly large one). Therefore that's your theory out the window. It's easily do-able if you put in the time and effort.

ok you're 1 in a million,well done:cool:

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

ok you're 1 in a million,well done:cool:

That's all I wanted. :pac: Only messing, I seriously do think anyone with intelligence could become profitable at it though, The problem is nobody spends long enough studying it. I've been going through the Ascot card since 9pm, I've only picked out two bets in that time! Patience + Time + Luck = Profit. Plus a bit of skill. :cool:

from the responses you leave when folks are trying to give you some help i sort of cant be arsed bothering.

heavyballs

RoverJames wrote: »

from the responses you leave when folks are trying to give you some help i sort of cant be arsed bothering.

well that was pointless,thanks

you can't have a difference of opinion on an open forum now,oh schit i'm out of here
seriously if it's soo easy to make money at this jazz why is it you see very few bookies closing down,
and btw i don't need nor did i ask for your help

you're trying to tell me i cant show a profit over 2 weeks when i've done so for the last year, your opinion is based on your experience in backing horses owned by your ole lad as from what you have said they are the only bets you placed. Bookies dont lose as 99% of their customers dont have a clue and are compulsive gamblers with little control over their gambling.

ValueSeeker

dinneenp wrote: »

Hi,
Just wondering if anyone (maybe a pro or journalist) has ever tracked various sports over a fixed period to see which is best to bet on?
I know it'd take a lot of effort, what I'd imagine is note the odds for each team to win & draw and then the results.
With some queries, formulas etc. could get results at end of period to for each game and see what % of winners were in differnet odds groups (e.g. 1/2 or lower, evens to 1/2 etc.).

I'm guessing that there could easily be a trend. In football one occurance (red card, freak goal etc) can alter the result but in basketball, tennis etc. the outcome shouldn't be determined by an unexpected occurance (expect injury).

Cheers,
Pa.

The answer to this is simple - the sport you know best. 1 of the main reasons I've had an edge over the bookmaker's odds is the fact I played both my main sports (football and golf) to a high youth level.

El Horseboxo

I have a mate that pretty much makes his living from betting on horses. He has his own systems or whatever he uses and it works for him. He swears by horse racing as the best sport to bet on because you find the best value in it and that there's a lot of mispricing and stupidity on the part of bookies.

He's a pretty selfish gambler though as he never shares his tips. He says it's a superstitious thing which i get as i don't like posting my big bets up here in fear of jinxing it. But in fairness to him he never brags about his winnings. I just know how much he has made as i created an excel sheet for him to record his bets and i've seen his profit from when i've added more columns or new formulas for him.

For me i have made the most money from the following in this order

GAA
American football
Soccer

ValueSeeker

I see his point as in short, the bigger the prices the bigger the margin for error but there are so many different markets about these days in different sports, it really goes back again to whatever you know best.

For example, Bluesquare and PP were going almost double the odds of other books throughout last season on brace betting in the footy and that was very very exploitable for people who are astute in the goal scorer markets. Or In outright golf betting, the odds you're working with are generally massive and certain systems and staking plans can be very profitable.

To sum up, there will always be pricing errors (in every sport) and lots of them and that's the beauty of sports betting as opposed to table games and the like in the Casino where the probabilities are what they are. You only need to look at the vast range of prices across the books for the different markets for proof that the real probabilities in sports betting are down to opinion. All the different prices across the books can't be right.

El Horseboxo

I agree that there is value in every sport. I'm sure there's probably loads of value in beach volleyball or something. But of course i will never notice it as i don't know a thing about it. The best sport to bet on is simply going to be relative to the knowledge that the better holds regarding it. One thing about horse racing though is that there is so much of it. There are so many races everyday of the year around the world. So there is bound to be a lot of value found if you know your stuff. Suppose the same could be said of soccer though.

Collie D

heavyballs wrote: »

well that's a weird one,why would you back mainly on hcp's? a system perfectly suited to a fair bit of sheistin,you really reckon if you've a h'cap for say at least with a graded race with a decent pot you know they're trying,€5k every horse is out there to win,give me a break

look at the prices of winners of hcaps in Chelt for e.g,the bookies don't have a clue because of trainers/owners holding horses back for the big pots

come on i can't be on my own with this view

This point may well be valid. Obviously a Derby or other Group 1 race is less likely to be bent than some hc hurdle at Kilbeggan. I think the other poster's point was that there is more likely to be value in the bog-standard race as the bookies prices will be pretty much spot on for the bigger races.

I'm not a horse punter btw bar Cheltenham and the National. Not my forte at all.

heavyballs wrote: »

well that was pointless,thanks

you can't have a difference of opinion on an open forum now,oh schit i'm out of here
seriously if it's soo easy to make money at this jazz why is it you see very few bookies closing down,
and btw i don't need nor did i ask for your help

Nobody has a problem with your difference of opinion. It's what the forum is about. Tone could be lightened though.


Back on topic and answering OP I don't think there is one correct answer. Whatever sport you think you have the best knowledge and can spot a winner and a bit of value is the one for you. There's no quick buck solution. We all have been the guy or know the guy who got lucky with a nice priced bet but in the long run time, effort and sometimes a lot of patience are needed. Some people like putting in the hours studying hors form etc. but to me that's quite tedious so I don't back horses any more.

heavyballs

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I have a mate that pretty much makes his living from betting on horses. He has his own systems or whatever he uses and it works for him. He swears by horse racing as the best sport to bet on because you find the best value in it and that there's a lot of mispricing and stupidity on the part of bookies.

He's a pretty selfish gambler though as he never shares his tips. He says it's a superstitious thing which i get as i don't like posting my big bets up here in fear of jinxing it. But in fairness to him he never brags about his winnings. I just know how much he has made as i created an excel sheet for him to record his bets and i've seen his profit from when i've added more columns or new formulas for him.

i don't beleive ur mate tbh,no matter what system he has you can't make a livin out of backin just horses
take x pyro for eg,he's very good at pickin horses,no doubt about that but look at the schit run he's on,the chap studies more than anyone i know yet he couldn't be making a livin out of it
on the superstitious point,that's just bull,if he was that good he would love to give you some of the glory and gain the much deserved credit from you and you're mates for earning them a few bob
so you can see the profit he's makin but he won't give u the tips before the race because of superstition,?

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

take x pyro for eg,he's very good at pickin horses,no doubt about that but look at the schit run he's on,the chap studies more than anyone i know yet he couldn't be making a livin out of it

On a horror run alright, But still only lost a reasonably small percentage of my bank. I can't make a living from it as I only have a few grand for a bankroll but I still make money at it. If I had a bigger bank it'd be easy enough to make a living off it. Plus I could back shorter priced horses all the time, I'd say my SR with under 6/4 priced horses is around 90%. (Must clarify when I do the spreadsheet) It's more than possible to win at the horses, 90 points profit over 6 months doesn't lie, Regardless of my losing run, That will change soon. Time and effort equals money and with corrective staking you could well make money at it. I've spent nearly a year doing nothing but following horses, I'll only learn more at it and hopefully make more money at it. It's not even that hard, Just takes alot of discipline to quit throwing tenners on every race like I used to, That's what kept me down for a while. Since I quit that I've been making a solid amount of money at it. Just don't have the roll to do it full time. Wish I did. :cool: I understand your opinions but they're not correct. Plenty of people make money backing horses, They just don't post on forums.

On a side note, Although I lost around 12% of my bank on the horses in the last two weeks, I've nearly quadrupled my roll at the football. Had Holland beating Brazil, Uruguay to win on peno's and it to be a score draw at 90mins. I've Holland at 10/1 outright which will bring in plenty of cash if it wins and a few other bets that are looking well. (All posted in WC section) Horror run at the horses, Best run of my life at the football. Funny how things go. :pac:

Kod-box

Im sure there is 1000's of people making a living solely backing horses in this coutry.

heavyballs

Kod-box wrote: »

Im sure there is 1000's of people making a living solely backing horses in this coutry.

lol,ok then

heavyballs

x PyRo wrote: »

On a horror run alright, But still only lost a reasonably small percentage of my bank. I can't make a living from it as I only have a few grand for a bankroll but I still make money at it. If I had a bigger bank it'd be easy enough to make a living off it. Plus I could back shorter priced horses all the time, I'd say my SR with under 6/4 priced horses is around 90%. (Must clarify when I do the spreadsheet) It's more than possible to win at the horses, 90 points profit over 6 months doesn't lie, Regardless of my losing run, That will change soon. Time and effort equals money and with corrective staking you could well make money at it. I've spent nearly a year doing nothing but following horses, I'll only learn more at it and hopefully make more money at it. It's not even that hard, Just takes alot of discipline to quit throwing tenners on every race like I used to, That's what kept me down for a while. Since I quit that I've been making a solid amount of money at it. Just don't have the roll to do it full time. Wish I did. :cool: I understand your opinions but they're not correct. Plenty of people make money backing horses, They just don't post on forums.

On a side note, Although I lost around 12% of my bank on the horses in the last two weeks, I've nearly quadrupled my roll at the football. Had Holland beating Brazil, Uruguay to win on peno's and it to be a score draw at 90mins. I've Holland at 10/1 outright which will bring in plenty of cash if it wins and a few other bets that are looking well. (All posted in WC section) Horror run at the horses, Best run of my life at the football. Funny how things go. :pac:

that was my point,not just backin horses like the other chaps mate,

you put up some horse that you fancied bigtime,(can't find the post)i beleive you said you had a big wedge on it yet you only had it down for a small points win in the log,when you do you're bets what does a point represent,the reason i ask is you made it clear you had a big bet on it yet it went down in your log as a pretty average bet,not havin a go,just wondering,

thebullkf

heavyballs wrote: »

lol,ok then

why LOL??


i personally know one prof. gambler who makes his money from horse racing only.

he's won close to a million-he's also lost that amount.

his view ofr money is diff to most people.

moneys a means to make more money.-nothing more.




he tell's everyone his secret.


back short odds.

bet big.

follow the main stables.

o'brien,weld,knight etc etc.


i personally haven't got the stones,money or the know how
.

heavyballs

thebullkf wrote: »

why LOL??


i personally know one prof. gambler who makes his money from horse racing only.

he's won close to a million-he's also lost that amount.

his view ofr money is diff to most people.

moneys a means to make more money.-nothing more.




he tell's everyone his secret.


back short odds.

bet big.

follow the main stables.

o'brien,weld,knight etc etc.


i personally haven't got the stones,money or the know how
.

neither do i,and i agree with ya,but i beleive it's a very small%,certainly not thousands imo

x PyRo

heavyballs wrote: »

that was my point,not just backin horses like the other chaps mate,

you put up some horse that you fancied bigtime,(can't find the post)i beleive you said you had a big wedge on it yet you only had it down for a small points win in the log,when you do you're bets what does a point represent,the reason i ask is you made it clear you had a big bet on it yet it went down in your log as a pretty average bet,not havin a go,just wondering,

So, I've still increased my original bank (Thread-wise) 90% from horses alone.

It always matches my real life stake, Always. 5 points is my max bet for the thread, So I didn't go over it. I'd assume you're talking about Monterosso in the Irish Derby ?. I had three or four previous bets on him in the thread, Few grand won but they were all 5 pointers with varying stakes on each but I can't go picking out 10 or 20 point bets when I've set a limit. I had around 600 on Monterosso for the Irish Derby but can't go above my limit for obvious reason. I had similar money on him on the other outings. I won't go into my stakes here though bar that one as I don't need to reveal them, But I always stick to the rules, Regardless of what I write in my write ups. I'm usually wrecked tired from doing hours of study by the time I'm writing them so I make the odd mistake in them. I'm wrecked now but haven't written a word either. If I say it's a big bet then it is, Anything 3 points or over will be a big bet. Thread wise it'll only be how much I fancy them as a guideline. I've only multiplied my thread bank by 1.9times, I've multiplied my monetary bank by over 10fold. I do make money at it, As do many others.

Keep the faith man.

El Horseboxo

heavyballs wrote: »

i don't beleive ur mate tbh,no matter what system he has you can't make a livin out of backin just horses
take x pyro for eg,he's very good at pickin horses,no doubt about that but look at the schit run he's on,the chap studies more than anyone i know yet he couldn't be making a livin out of it
on the superstitious point,that's just bull,if he was that good he would love to give you some of the glory and gain the much deserved credit from you and you're mates for earning them a few bob
so you can see the profit he's makin but he won't give u the tips before the race because of superstition,?

I only believe him because i seen the ledger he kept prior to me creating the spreadsheet for him and i've also seen a recent profit figure in that spreadsheet. So unless he has been creating this false account of betting over the past few years and never sharing it with anyone for some mental insane reason i have no grounds to believe what i seen as a fabrication.

I don't ask for tips as i don't bet on horses. He does give out tips to other mates though. But he won't give out the tips that he throws down huge sums on. He was a bricklayer but lost his job for obvious reasons and now only does the odd nixer here and there. He's not making millions but his profit was in the 6 figure range and it has allowed him to buy a house with his girlfriend. Buy a 2010 car and spend the past few weeks at the WC. He only bets on horses and it is that betting that has put a hefty figure in his account and is pretty much his only income bar the odd nixer.

I know that he bets mostly on 2nd favorites in races with not many horses. And it is with big stakes and i know he drives all over Dublin trying to get his money down. Find it hard to believe all you want. But as you said you don't have the stones to bet that big, so why should you understand that those who do can make big returns. Of course that means they can incur big losses. But for now my mate is in the green. Maybe one day he'll end up in the red. Who knows.

Kod-box

heavyballs wrote: »

neither do i,and i agree with ya,but i beleive it's a very small%,certainly not thousands imo

i actually meant to type 100's there, and there is definatley that, money makes money, if you have the bankroll and the knowledge for it you can certainly make a handsome living off of it, its just a shame i have neither :pac:

argosy2006

does he not use betfair

Verance

heavyballs wrote: »

i don't beleive ur mate tbh,no matter what system he has you can't make a livin out of backin just horses

Why the **** not? Just because you can't doesn't mean that others can't. Thousands of people actually do.

Your main point seems to be that lots of horses aren't trying to win the races? That makes very little difference to finding value. You say handicaps are impossible to make a profit on but it's much easier to find value in large handicaps as they're much harder for the market to price up.