Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Which sport is best to bet on?

  • 14-06-2010 8:04am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,214 ✭✭✭


    Hi,
    Just wondering if anyone (maybe a pro or journalist) has ever tracked various sports over a fixed period to see which is best to bet on?
    I know it'd take a lot of effort, what I'd imagine is note the odds for each team to win & draw and then the results.
    With some queries, formulas etc. could get results at end of period to for each game and see what % of winners were in differnet odds groups (e.g. 1/2 or lower, evens to 1/2 etc.).

    I'm guessing that there could easily be a trend. In football one occurance (red card, freak goal etc) can alter the result but in basketball, tennis etc. the outcome shouldn't be determined by an unexpected occurance (expect injury).

    Cheers,
    Pa.


«1

Comments

  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Events where there are only 3 outcomes are the worst generally, one team wins or it's a draw. The bookies have the market wrapped up generally.The sport that is best to bet on is the one where you know more than most other folks betting on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    The bookies generally have the odds spot on for all sports. The best one to back is the one where you know more about it than the odds compilers.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Verance wrote: »
    The bookies generally have the odds spot on for all sports.

    I genuinely think that in horse racing there is plenty of value when one looks beyond the fancied horses in many races.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    There is value to be found but you need to know your stuff. Do you not think that the bookies have the odds right the majority of the time?


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Verance wrote: »
    There is value to be found but you need to know your stuff. Do you not think that the bookies have the odds right the majority of the time?

    I think in many handicap races the markets are laughable. For example there was a race on Saturday with an evens fav, perhaps shade of odds on over 6f, fav had beaten the 2nd fav over 5f previously. 2nd fav at won over 6f before, fav had not. Looney market.

    I rarely think they have the odds "right" in horse racing, if it wasn't for the amount of total f**ktards who back favs blind at whatever price comes up the bookies would have to cop on a bit.

    If you don't know your stuff you really should limit your stakes to tiny bets, I wouldn't say give up as we all know that is quite difficult.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    RoverJames wrote: »
    I rarely think they have the odds "right" in horse racing, if it wasn't for the amount of total f**ktards who back favs blind at whatever price comes up the bookies would have to cop on a bit.
    Not so sure, you can't just lay/oppose the favs.

    If you're going to back blind it should definitely be the favourites. Backing every fav in the last 20000 odd races would've returned 92% of your money, backing all the other horses would've returned 71%.

    I would say though that people should be looking for bigger prices as it's easier to find a nice chunk of value, provided you know your stuff.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Verance wrote: »
    Not so sure, you can't just lay/oppose the favs.

    If you could find f**ktards to back them at the bookies price and didn't have to give betfair 5% of the win you could.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,341 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    In baseball professional handicapers have these systems which analyse a lot of statistics and some of them offer a service where they guarantee over 60-70% of their tips will be correct. It seems to be a sport that is open to historical statistics which is probably due to the amount of games they play and the rotation of players. You'd have to be solely betting on just their tips over then entire season to see how accurate their claims are.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    RoverJames wrote: »
    If you could find f**ktards to back them at the bookies price and didn't have to give betfair 5% of the win you could.
    Yes, of course you would lay the favs at the bookies' prices but you'd be much better off laying the outsiders at bookies' prices because:
    Verance wrote: »
    Backing every fav in the last 20000 odd races would've returned 92% of your money, backing all the other horses would've returned 71%.

    So you'd be much better off ''finding ****tards'' (as you so beautifully put it) to back the outsiders.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭myflipflops


    It various from person to person. Athletics is my best sport.

    Generally accepted that football is the least viable for potential profit.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,836 ✭✭✭TanG411


    I've always found darts to be somewhat predictable depending on what major is on. For the UK open, there were quite a few upsets along the way so it was difficult to bet on.

    The World Matchplay coming up in July will be the next major, so have a look out for it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,266 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    l'd say rugby handicap betting is the easiest to win at myself.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Verance wrote: »


    So you'd be much better off ''finding ****tards'' (as you so beautifully put it) to back the outsiders.

    Much easier to find ****tards to back favs to be honest :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭mjp


    I find GAA betting to be by far the most profitable of all sports to bet on. Having been betting regularly on horses to start off with and continuing into soccer and rugby but in the end found myself loosing in the long run.
    A big mistake i see with a lot of guys and also with myself in the past is not being entirely truthful to yourself in how your profit and loss is doing. Ppl tend to forget about their loosing bets much quicker and think i had a good winner there and hiding from the truthful figure of how they did overall over a monthly period.

    Getting back to GAA betting i feel that if you do your homework and trawl through the teamnews and local papers and other websites you will find great value in GAA markets as bookmakers are putting up more and more markets for games. A great addition i have found in the last 2 years is the players total points betting for games which ladcrookes are particularly off the mark and i have caught them on a few times with this.
    It is basically you pitting your knowledge against their odds compilers and with them offering the prices on 8 players in every game and they cannot get everything right so the key is to know who they have over or underestimated.

    Another GAA market i have found quite profitable to bet in is Total game points in running. While it takes a bit of effort and good broadband connection(key) judging whether a game will be low/ high scoring iin running can be quite profitable. the key here is that you often have a great opportunity to trade out on bets if you loose faith and can often get great opportunities to bet in the hope that the market finishes in between your two markets.

    e.g you back total points in a Game to be over 28.5points after 20 mins and you get a goal or a scoring burst and the market changes to 32.5 by half time. you then have a window to hedge out and back unders and have a 4 point window there where you win on both markets and worst you can come off is near even as prices are around 5/6 mark. After analysing games for a while you will become much better in judging scores and some teams are notorious for low scoring games ( ulster championship) and high scoring( munster hurling)

    Po wers Boilsports ladcrookes and be t365 all bet in running on Gaa games now so there is often a difference between the views each take on games so there is plenty of opportunities there to avail of value.

    I find that watching a game in running with all these 4 bookies ac open with money in them as the most profitable way to bet as there are plenty of knowledgeablee Gaa folks out there but not putting their expertees to use.

    Be interested to hear if many of you guys bet on any of the GAA markets?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 344 ✭✭FunnyStuff


    I do alot of football betting, generally in the over and under goals, but my favourite is ice hockey. I'm a big ice-hockey fan and watch it constantly, so tend to go deep in that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    In my experience hurling in particular and to a lesser extent gaa football are the best,a couple of reasons,not much chance of a draw,ok the scabby odds will reflect that but that doesn't bother me,

    in hurling i'm talkin about backin heavy odds on favs,it's high scoring,you can score quicker that most other sports,which helps if the schit hits the fan early doors
    in gaa you have 14 1v1 situations on the pitch where the fav team have maybe 10 or more superior players on the field
    it's not like soccer etc where a team can park the bus on front of the goal

    this has also been my experience having played both gaa and soccer for years,i can't recall bein beaten by a really weak gaa team whereas in soccer it has happened on more than a couple of occasions

    in sayin all that research is needed,i know so many gamblers who back blind just because the price is so short,punters like that deserve to lose their wonga


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Ive made more money from Tennis than any other sport, i usually trade it on Betfair. Least profitable is Horse racing which i have all but given up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭longhalloween


    Friend of mine works in a bookies and he said the best sport to bet on is tennis.

    That and lotto numbers :D


  • Moderators Posts: 8,832 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Least profitable is Horse racing

    Speak for yourself. ;)

    It's the only thing I turn a profit at. Although I'd be quite profitable on all my accounts for Football, If it wasn't for all my €10 and €20 accumulators taking my decent profit levels into a loss. I really need to quit doing them!


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    x PyRo wrote: »
    Speak for yourself. ;)

    It's the only thing I turn a profit at. Although I'd be quite profitable on all my accounts for Football, If it wasn't for all my €10 and €20 accumulators taking my decent profit levels into a loss. I really need to quit doing them!

    Same here, horse racing is the only sport I know where horses go off at huge prices (>10/1) when they have form to the same level as 2/1 shots in the same race. Humongous value to be found in horse racing, only thing is it takes years to get the know how to spot it, took me years anyway.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 831 ✭✭✭who what when


    More obscure sports are the best to bet on like badminton or bowls. The idea being of course that you know more than the bookies.

    Also lesser games in well known sports. Like division 4c of the bulgarian league. Some bookies offer odds on these games despite knowing fcuk all about them.

    I remember last year paddypower offered odds on our local football team to win our first round championship game. We were 5/4, the other team 4/5. These odds made no sense as the other team had just come up from intermediate and we had been struggling in senior for several years.

    Anyway for 3 days this tormented me. Should i bet against us or not.
    In the end i just couldnt do it but irony of ironies we won by a point.
    And i scored the winning goal!

    Moral of the story- im actually not sure what the moral is but it really made me think and havent put on a bet sinse


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    We were 5/4, the other team 4/5. These odds made no sense ..................we won by a point.

    Looks like they had it priced up not too bad really to be honest, more a less a coin toss
    (slightly biased)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17,918 ✭✭✭✭orourkeda


    Verance wrote: »
    Not so sure, you can't just lay/oppose the favs.

    If you're going to back blind it should definitely be the favourites. Backing every fav in the last 20000 odd races would've returned 92% of your money, backing all the other horses would've returned 71%.

    I would say though that people should be looking for bigger prices as it's easier to find a nice chunk of value, provided you know your stuff.

    It still represent an 8% loss. Add to this the edge that bookies are allowing themselves and we really are getting spanked.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Same here, horse racing is the only sport I know where horses go off at huge prices (>10/1) when they have form to the same level as 2/1 shots in the same race. Humongous value to be found in horse racing, only thing is it takes years to get the know how to spot it, took me years anyway.


    get real will ya,you will not make money on backing gg's unless you are one of the following,a jockey agent,jockey or trainer,you can study form till the cows come home,not worth a f..ck especially if you're backing in hcp's etc,if you just backed in the big races(where everyone is tryin)you'd have half a chance


  • Moderators Posts: 8,832 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    heavyballs wrote: »
    get real will ya,you will not make money on backing gg's unless you are one of the following,a jockey agent,jockey or trainer,you can study form till the cows come home,not worth a f..ck especially if you're backing in hcp's etc,if you just backed in the big races(where everyone is tryin)you'd have half a chance

    I make money from it, And I'm not any of who you listed. Plus I back in all sorts of races. Time & Effort will lead to profits, If you've a bit of luck along the way. I spend time between 10pm and 2am picking my horses and I've made quite a few quid at it too.

    You probably have less of a chance when everyone is trying, As something unknown can come out of the woodwork. Which happens alot. Those crappy class 5 and 6's are probably the most profitable for me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    x PyRo wrote: »
    I make money from it, And I'm not any of who you listed. Plus I back in all sorts of races. Time & Effort will lead to profits, If you've a bit of luck along the way. I spend time between 10pm and 2am picking my horses and I've made quite a few quid at it too.

    You probably have less of a chance when everyone is trying, As something unknown can come out of the woodwork. Which happens alot. Those crappy class 5 and 6's are probably the most profitable for me.

    tbh i do follow a lot of your tips when i get a chance and they're good,my point is this,my father has owned horses before and when the horse was ready to win or place i can tell you for sure u wouldn't have picked it out,no matter how much you study you don't know as much as you need to know(i.e ,how the horse is,what he's trained like that week) and that's a fact
    you say you make money at it,i have no doubt you do ok at it,better than most but you don't make money on it,i wouldn't jinx ya by starting to follow all your fancies but if i did you would not be making a profit


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 29 paulportoloive


    wonder what the best odds ever were??? anyone know even???? :D30/1 or more would there be? - prob for algeria to win world cup lol - wouldn't be surprised if they did anyways - it's crap..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    heavyballs wrote: »
    get real will ya,you will not make money on backing gg's unless you are one of the following,a jockey agent,jockey or trainer,you can study form till the cows come home,not worth a f..ck especially if you're backing in hcp's etc,if you just backed in the big races(where everyone is tryin)you'd have half a chance
    Well, that's completely wrong.

    Jockey agents, jockeys and trainers generally make very poor gamblers, only a rare few of those that'll make money.

    Lots of people make money from horses. It's difficult but definitely very possible. Just because you don't know much about them doesn't mean others aren't making a few bob.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    heavyballs wrote: »
    you say you make money at it,i have no doubt you do ok at it,better than most but you don't make money on it
    Back in your box, he's already said he does make a profit. Take a look at his thread, is it 100 points profit?


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    Verance wrote: »
    Well, that's completely wrong.

    Jockey agents, jockeys and trainers generally make very poor gamblers, only a rare few of those that'll make money.

    Lots of people make money from horses. It's difficult but definitely very possible. Just because you don't know much about them doesn't mean others aren't making a few bob.

    listen we all know what your record is like backing horses,pretty c*ap tbh,oh and btw don't assume anything about my knowledge or horses,my father is involved in the game and i back his horses,that's all


  • Moderators Posts: 8,832 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    heavyballs wrote: »
    tbh i do follow a lot of your tips when i get a chance and they're good,my point is this,my father has owned horses before and when the horse was ready to win or place i can tell you for sure u wouldn't have picked it out,no matter how much you study you don't know as much as you need to know(i.e ,how the horse is,what he's trained like that week) and that's a fact
    you say you make money at it,i have no doubt you do ok at it,better than most but you don't make money on it,i wouldn't jinx ya by starting to follow all your fancies but if i did you would not be making a profit

    I don't go for fancy 20/1 shots that may or may not be lined out for the race though. I go for horses who are proven winners, Or at least retain enough ability to win said race. Whether they by 5/1 or even money. Not every horse is lined up to win a certain race. I've my fair share of losers but I DO make money from it, Infact quite a nice sum since I started following it 24/7. I don't know how you can claim I don't make money on it when I've logged 99% of the bets I've done in the last 6 months, And I've only been backing and following horses properly for that time. You don't need to know every little detail about a horse to tell if it has a chance or not, Form and other factors usually tell the full story.

    Plus you wouldn't be jinxing me if you backed any of them. :p I've more than doubled my bank due to selective staking and if I keep that little bit of luck and keep picking them using the same methods it'll continue.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Verance


    heavyballs wrote: »
    listen we all know what your record is like backing horses,pretty c*ap tbh,
    Yeah? :eek:
    heavyballs wrote: »
    oh and btw don't assume anything about my knowledge or horses,my father is involved in the game and i back his horses,that's all
    But you still don't make money from them? Like I said, trainers are usually very bad tipsters.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    heavyballs wrote: »
    get real will ya,you will not make money on backing gg's unless you are one of the following,a jockey agent,jockey or trainer,you can study form till the cows come home,not worth a f..ck especially if you're backing in hcp's etc,if you just backed in the big races(where everyone is tryin)you'd have half a chance

    Sorry dude, I'm not a jockey, I'm not an agent or trainer yet I have been making a consistent few quid from horse race betting for the last year or so. I bet mainly on handicaps and very very rarely in the big races. Now I have a job and an income so I don't try to make a living from it, nor would I attempt to.

    In fairness I know where you're coming from as I used to think the same as you. I see it like going to college except this particular course only a small percentage graduate.

    Regarding your Dad, unfortunately to make a living trainers need owners, most horses are p1ss poor but the trainers keep feeding the dream to the owners.

    I'm not at all wanting to argue but when one eventually sees years of studying form and whatnot coming together the muck you posted in bold doesn't go down well.

    Also I have no intention of posting up my bets so you can believe I am losing my bollix and telling lies if you want.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Sorry dude, I'm not a jockey, I'm not an agent or trainer yet I have been making a consistent few quid from horse race betting for the last year or so. I bet mainly on handicaps and very very rarely in the big races. Now I have a job and an income so I don't try to make a living from it, nor would I attempt to.

    In fairness I know where you're coming from as I used to think the same as you. I see it like going to college except this particular course only a small percentage graduate.

    .

    well that's a weird one,why would you back mainly on hcp's? a system perfectly suited to a fair bit of sheistin,you really reckon if you've a h'cap for say €5k every horse is out there to win,give me a break

    at least with a graded race with a decent pot you know they're trying,look at the prices of winners of hcaps in Chelt for e.g,the bookies don't have a clue because of trainers/owners holding horses back for the big pots

    come on i can't be on my own with this view


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    you actually have the answer yourself, quite often the bookies dont have a clue, so often there is valve. I trust the handicapper is doing his job fairly well and look for factors going in the horses favour, mainly trip and the going, recent form that appears poor is often just highlighting what the horse needs to go well. I never back a horse that has nt won before and i dont go along with ifs, if the extra furlong doesnt inconvenience etc etc. Also i never said i reckon every horse is out there to win, that balances itself out though.


  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    since i've started . . . . . I have very strict criteria, out of 3 hc races one likely bet would be a lot. I dont second guess my system, if nothing fits i dont go fudging so i have a bet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    RoverJames wrote: »
    you actually have the answer yourself, quite often the bookies dont have a clue, so often there is valve. I trust the handicapper is doing his job fairly well and look for factors going in the horses favour, mainly trip and the going, recent form that appears poor is often just highlighting what the horse needs to go well. I never back a horse that has nt won before and i dont go along with ifs, if the extra furlong doesnt inconvenience etc etc. Also i never said i reckon every horse is out there to win, that balances itself out though.

    ok,i take your point,but i never said there wasn't value,the problem is pickin out the value,and what i'm trying to say is that there are too many variables including non triers to make a profit on backing horses over any length of time over say 2 weeks


  • Moderators Posts: 8,832 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    heavyballs wrote: »
    ok,i take your point,but i never said there wasn't value,the problem is pickin out the value,and what i'm trying to say is that there are too many variables including non triers to make a profit on backing horses over any length of time over say 2 weeks

    How can you say that ?. I know I keep harping on about this but I've made a profit over 6 months (And a fairly large one). Therefore that's your theory out the window. It's easily do-able if you put in the time and effort.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    x PyRo wrote: »
    How can you say that ?. I know I keep harping on about this but I've made a profit over 6 months (And a fairly large one). Therefore that's your theory out the window. It's easily do-able if you put in the time and effort.

    ok you're 1 in a million,well done:cool:


  • Moderators Posts: 8,832 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    heavyballs wrote: »
    ok you're 1 in a million,well done:cool:

    That's all I wanted. :pac: Only messing, I seriously do think anyone with intelligence could become profitable at it though, The problem is nobody spends long enough studying it. I've been going through the Ascot card since 9pm, I've only picked out two bets in that time! Patience + Time + Luck = Profit. Plus a bit of skill. :cool:


  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    from the responses you leave when folks are trying to give you some help i sort of cant be arsed bothering.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    RoverJames wrote: »
    from the responses you leave when folks are trying to give you some help i sort of cant be arsed bothering.
    :confused:well that was pointless,thanks

    you can't have a difference of opinion on an open forum now,oh schit i'm out of here
    seriously if it's soo easy to make money at this jazz why is it you see very few bookies closing down,
    and btw i don't need nor did i ask for your help


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    you're trying to tell me i cant show a profit over 2 weeks when i've done so for the last year, your opinion is based on your experience in backing horses owned by your ole lad as from what you have said they are the only bets you placed. Bookies dont lose as 99% of their customers dont have a clue and are compulsive gamblers with little control over their gambling.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 522 ✭✭✭ValueSeeker


    dinneenp wrote: »
    Hi,
    Just wondering if anyone (maybe a pro or journalist) has ever tracked various sports over a fixed period to see which is best to bet on?
    I know it'd take a lot of effort, what I'd imagine is note the odds for each team to win & draw and then the results.
    With some queries, formulas etc. could get results at end of period to for each game and see what % of winners were in differnet odds groups (e.g. 1/2 or lower, evens to 1/2 etc.).

    I'm guessing that there could easily be a trend. In football one occurance (red card, freak goal etc) can alter the result but in basketball, tennis etc. the outcome shouldn't be determined by an unexpected occurance (expect injury).

    Cheers,
    Pa.

    The answer to this is simple - the sport you know best. 1 of the main reasons I've had an edge over the bookmaker's odds is the fact I played both my main sports (football and golf) to a high youth level.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,341 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I have a mate that pretty much makes his living from betting on horses. He has his own systems or whatever he uses and it works for him. He swears by horse racing as the best sport to bet on because you find the best value in it and that there's a lot of mispricing and stupidity on the part of bookies.

    He's a pretty selfish gambler though as he never shares his tips. He says it's a superstitious thing which i get as i don't like posting my big bets up here in fear of jinxing it. But in fairness to him he never brags about his winnings. I just know how much he has made as i created an excel sheet for him to record his bets and i've seen his profit from when i've added more columns or new formulas for him.

    For me i have made the most money from the following in this order

    GAA
    American football
    Soccer


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 522 ✭✭✭ValueSeeker


    I see his point as in short, the bigger the prices the bigger the margin for error but there are so many different markets about these days in different sports, it really goes back again to whatever you know best.

    For example, Bluesquare and PP were going almost double the odds of other books throughout last season on brace betting in the footy and that was very very exploitable for people who are astute in the goal scorer markets. Or In outright golf betting, the odds you're working with are generally massive and certain systems and staking plans can be very profitable.

    To sum up, there will always be pricing errors (in every sport) and lots of them and that's the beauty of sports betting as opposed to table games and the like in the Casino where the probabilities are what they are. You only need to look at the vast range of prices across the books for the different markets for proof that the real probabilities in sports betting are down to opinion. All the different prices across the books can't be right.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,341 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I agree that there is value in every sport. I'm sure there's probably loads of value in beach volleyball or something. But of course i will never notice it as i don't know a thing about it. The best sport to bet on is simply going to be relative to the knowledge that the better holds regarding it. One thing about horse racing though is that there is so much of it. There are so many races everyday of the year around the world. So there is bound to be a lot of value found if you know your stuff. Suppose the same could be said of soccer though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,438 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    heavyballs wrote: »
    well that's a weird one,why would you back mainly on hcp's? a system perfectly suited to a fair bit of sheistin,you really reckon if you've a h'cap for say at least with a graded race with a decent pot you know they're trying,€5k every horse is out there to win,give me a break

    look at the prices of winners of hcaps in Chelt for e.g,the bookies don't have a clue because of trainers/owners holding horses back for the big pots

    come on i can't be on my own with this view
    This point may well be valid. Obviously a Derby or other Group 1 race is less likely to be bent than some hc hurdle at Kilbeggan. I think the other poster's point was that there is more likely to be value in the bog-standard race as the bookies prices will be pretty much spot on for the bigger races.

    I'm not a horse punter btw bar Cheltenham and the National. Not my forte at all.
    heavyballs wrote: »
    :confused:well that was pointless,thanks

    you can't have a difference of opinion on an open forum now,oh schit i'm out of here
    seriously if it's soo easy to make money at this jazz why is it you see very few bookies closing down,
    and btw i don't need nor did i ask for your help

    Nobody has a problem with your difference of opinion. It's what the forum is about. Tone could be lightened though.


    Back on topic and answering OP I don't think there is one correct answer. Whatever sport you think you have the best knowledge and can spot a winner and a bit of value is the one for you. There's no quick buck solution. We all have been the guy or know the guy who got lucky with a nice priced bet but in the long run time, effort and sometimes a lot of patience are needed. Some people like putting in the hours studying hors form etc. but to me that's quite tedious so I don't back horses any more.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭heavyballs


    I have a mate that pretty much makes his living from betting on horses. He has his own systems or whatever he uses and it works for him. He swears by horse racing as the best sport to bet on because you find the best value in it and that there's a lot of mispricing and stupidity on the part of bookies.

    He's a pretty selfish gambler though as he never shares his tips. He says it's a superstitious thing which i get as i don't like posting my big bets up here in fear of jinxing it. But in fairness to him he never brags about his winnings. I just know how much he has made as i created an excel sheet for him to record his bets and i've seen his profit from when i've added more columns or new formulas for him.

    i don't beleive ur mate tbh,no matter what system he has you can't make a livin out of backin just horses
    take x pyro for eg,he's very good at pickin horses,no doubt about that but look at the schit run he's on,the chap studies more than anyone i know yet he couldn't be making a livin out of it
    on the superstitious point,that's just bull,if he was that good he would love to give you some of the glory and gain the much deserved credit from you and you're mates for earning them a few bob
    so you can see the profit he's makin but he won't give u the tips before the race because of superstition,?


  • Moderators Posts: 8,832 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    heavyballs wrote: »
    take x pyro for eg,he's very good at pickin horses,no doubt about that but look at the schit run he's on,the chap studies more than anyone i know yet he couldn't be making a livin out of it

    On a horror run alright, But still only lost a reasonably small percentage of my bank. I can't make a living from it as I only have a few grand for a bankroll but I still make money at it. If I had a bigger bank it'd be easy enough to make a living off it. Plus I could back shorter priced horses all the time, I'd say my SR with under 6/4 priced horses is around 90%. (Must clarify when I do the spreadsheet) It's more than possible to win at the horses, 90 points profit over 6 months doesn't lie, Regardless of my losing run, That will change soon. Time and effort equals money and with corrective staking you could well make money at it. I've spent nearly a year doing nothing but following horses, I'll only learn more at it and hopefully make more money at it. It's not even that hard, Just takes alot of discipline to quit throwing tenners on every race like I used to, That's what kept me down for a while. Since I quit that I've been making a solid amount of money at it. Just don't have the roll to do it full time. Wish I did. :cool: I understand your opinions but they're not correct. Plenty of people make money backing horses, They just don't post on forums.

    On a side note, Although I lost around 12% of my bank on the horses in the last two weeks, I've nearly quadrupled my roll at the football. Had Holland beating Brazil, Uruguay to win on peno's and it to be a score draw at 90mins. I've Holland at 10/1 outright which will bring in plenty of cash if it wins and a few other bets that are looking well. (All posted in WC section) Horror run at the horses, Best run of my life at the football. Funny how things go. :pac:


  • Advertisement
Advertisement