My Thoughts Tomorrow

mickey1979

Hi

I see alot of people putting up logs of what they are doing so here goes me

1.50 Listowel
My first thought was to back Spill the Beans of De Bromheads but had another look at the race and the more I looked the more I just had a bad feeling about this horse. So I looked for alternatives I did not like C Roche nor Carpet Elegance Dessie Hughes does not look like its off so I plumped for Lend a hand Son of Mick Hourigans at 4/1 or better

3.10 Naas
Just cannot see past Jim Bolgers here I think O Briens would want to be pretty decent to beat it and I think it had the beating of the others on form.


So advised bets
6 pts on Purple Glow at 4/6 or better
2 pts on lend a hand son at 4/1 or better
.5pt double on the two advised prices

mickey1979

I was really happy with that lend a hand son got the tow from spill the beans and carpet elegance that I thought he would and just came through. I really liked Dessie Hughes Horses run as I feel he was prob not off so nice to get a winner and maybe one for next time. so for now I am

+ 8 points and I have a double running I could of got 9/2 in Ladbrokes but too lazy to walk. Try not to use Betfair Due to betting on all sorts but he went off 5.8 there

I really do think Bolgers is a good thing at any price above 4/6 have the 6 points on so get in Purple Glow for a great day

mickey1979

Purple Glow Hmm. I thought him maybe 3 to 5lb better than Eastern Light so I cannot explain it. One of those things where you get it wrong I want to analyse it. However there is no analysis just was not good enough on the day. I was not as confident when I seen evens as I would of been had I seen 4-6 just felt he was a 4-6 chance why was he 1/1. Anyway up 1.5p today if anyone would like to shed light on what I was missing about purple glow brilliant. Personally I live in Portlaoise it was lashing rain all morning maybe the slight ease was not to his liking. Some would say he ran to his Navan Run I would think he improved inbetween so I would say he did not run to his Curragh Run there you go analysis

In_tuition

Nice tipping.

Good luck with the thread.

x PyRo

Best of luck Mickey, Good shout with Lend A Hand Son. Unlucky with the other one. Keep up the good work.

mickey1979

Well I did not keep up the thread but anyway here goes again I have looked at the 6.15 in Sligo and well here go my thoughts for anyone trying to get out on the last. Prince Erik should win but something niggles me here when he pisses up at 1/1 I for one will not be on but he has all the form to win but something about him is not right in my head anyway. the second fav is a harty horse first time over fences and well I have never been a fan of that so I am skipping him this brings me to my choice while the first two have plenty of merit I like Mulberry Boy should he avoid the bounce(does it exist) I think he could cause a little upset here. My advice is 1pt e.w at 8/1 or better i think he is 7's on betfair at the mo but I reckon he will drift as the fav should be backed further. He just might you know.:cool:

mickey1979

12's in hills

mickey1979

right i backed him at 11/1 in powers no boyles or hills where I am so that makes my profit 1.2 for the day. Thats a fifth of the odds
so 1.2+

mickey1979

Well onwards 3.45 Sligo

Here is my thoughts The Favourite is likely to be Life of Reilly and Kiely has really good Stats for this place so he prob will be short but the bar is not being set high and I feel he may be a little vunerable. so the opposition well Nolan has one thats a good bumper horse but I feel it may need the run and am happy to swerve, first morning has nothing going for it bar ruby and martin and i think sometimes this combination can be over-rated Iveagh house well he is another that i think may benefit from this rather than be a threat. so here comes my pick barna gold who had a good run over three miles in listowel stepping back in distance and with barry ger up i think he may trouble the fav. I think 6/1 plus is a good price and I am happy to advise 1.5 points each way hope he runs well and best of luck to all

mickey1979

with the fav out i reccommend you up that to 4pts each way
so now 4ew at 3/1 or better

turbobaby

7/2F now, in from 11/2 third fav this morning!

EDIT: I should add that he was 11/2 even after the fav pulled out (must have been bigger prior to the NR)

turbobaby

mickey1979 wrote: »

with the fav out i reccommend you up that to 4pts each way
so now 4ew at 3/1 or better

Thank you very much you legend! Pyro to take the back seat for one day at least!!?

mickey1979

excellent, nice start here I backed him at 11/2 in ladbrokes so lucky me forgot to put that up. however in the interest of fairness I am putting up 11/4 as it was meant to be 2.5 points ew not 4 points i divided wrongly so up 13.5 points add in the 1.2 already and that makes 14.7 not bad for a novice poster. But incomparable to the master.

So plus 14.7

x PyRo

Great start to the thread mate, no harm in using the 11/2 that you got. It's your log after all.

Keep up the good work and I'm looking forwards to more winners from you.

turbobaby

Yes, I can confirm that Ladbrokes and Boyles were the only ones offering 11/2 this morning.

mickey1979

Well I was away at the weekend. I had planned to put oillily up here on Sunday but got distracted forgot to back her and was sick of course. Anyway here I am today. I am looking at 2.20 in Tramore I have looked at Spill the Beans before and I am not convinced it will have its chance but I will not be following it. Then I looked at Got Option and Ta Blazes they are both moderate bumper horses first time over hurdles and nothing makes me go yeah this is the one so I skip them over. Arbayoun never even thought this would be under 20/1 so thats a no for me too. I rested my hat on Ever Dreaming why well I think this is a very moderate race that can be won by a very moderate horse and Ever Dreamings two mile maiden form fits the bill. So i reccommend

1.5pts e.w Ever Dreaming 8/1 or better and I think its already 10/1

turbobaby

Followed you with a small e/w bet at 12s. Cheers.

mickey1979

no joy but he was backed which means that I was not completely off the mark so thats minus 3 pts now so i am up 11.7

mickey1979

Right 5.45 Limerick Tomorrow

This is the way I see it Uncle Junior is the favourite for Willie Mullins after a cracking run in listowel where he was second to Wise Owl who followed up in a novice chase afterwards is a serious horse. I think he would be odds on if it were not for his two year absence previous to that race. I think personally his is a serious choice.

the alternatives
Orphen Guama and Warne I don't think are much the race they were second and third at in Listowel is not playing well but I will be watching Orphen Guama's run with interest as I think he may make a nice low grade handicapper.

Total Excitment and Mr Cracker I am not a fan of first time over chase fences and on hurdles form would be inferior to the favourite

finally
Dessie Hughes one I don't see him beating Uncle Junior.

So for a big one 5pts Uncle Junior 1/1 or better cannot seem him been beaten unless the bounce comes into play a nice horse hopefully can get off the mark here.

I looked at the first race in Limerick should you pick the winner well done I could not one for the bookies I think.

mickey1979

2.55 Cork

This on paper looks a tricky little contest so this is the way I break it down.
Anshan Dreams.
Winner of a moderate Tipperary maiden post describes something in hand I personally don't think so. I think while this horse is open to improvement is going to have to do a bit more to win this.
Baracas
Avoiding Eoin Griffin will not put you far wrong the horse is limited and I see a few beating it here and I swiftly move on. If you are a layer take all you can at 9/4
Michelles Dream
A winner of a moderate race in Bellewstown and I would rate closely with Anshan Dream could be open to impovement but no dice for me but would not be a shock. But I do think a couple have better prospects.
Mood Dice
I like this one and would be my second choice. I think it showed a bit more than the others thus far but its last run was lacklustre but interesting and I feel it may put it up to my choice.
Takeyourcapoff.
This is my choice my heart was broken when it was beaten in Listowel. While it did win a moderate Bellewstown maiden, but at its ease so open to any amount of improvement. I think it may have won in Listowel there was a lacklustre run in Tipperary but I think its a good sign he returns so quickly. Should he run his Listowel run I think he wins this easily.
Must Leave
Useless
Stayclosetome
Not my cup of tea think there are plenty better.

So my advice is. takeyourcapoff 3pts at 5/2 or better good luck

mickey1979

2.25

I think High Cian will prob win this but its just not my price 13/8 is short when putapriceonthat is prob capable of winning something like this so swerve the front two for a little value on Tonys Treasure at 8/1 is a nice price I am going 1.5pts each way at 5/1 or better. 8/1 is whats on offer at the moment.

mickey1979

Terrible day down 6pts but I enjoyed the run tonys treasure gave me. anyway so -6 today leaving me plus 5.5 up:eek:

mickey1979

I have decided to return and try posting as I go off on my own little buzz every so often which involves chasing and backing but I am going to stick to my own GGS now and see how I go. So hopefully am a help to anyone who is looking at these races.

Right first race I looked at was this
Down Royal Monday 1.30
I have looked at this race a few times and here's what I think,
I have narrowed it down to two Holdem Cowboy and The Corby Glen. Holdem Cowboy is prob the more progressive of the two and looks a little bit of a Job Horse here I have him marked down at 3/1 and thats the thing that puts me off he is a bit short. So skipping him just because I think he will be 3/1 or less The Corby Glen looks a decent horse here set up for a Boxing Day Down Royal Winner . He is back down to a winning mark likes the track and the trainer has a good record here. He was given a little freshener over hurdles and I think anything over 5/1 is a good price so I am recommending 1.5pts at any price over 5/1 I am sure he will be bigger but I reckon 5/1 should be his price. so good luck

mickey1979

Well Yesterday
2nd
The Corby Glen touched 5/1 and was just headed on run in so we are -1.5pts for the day.

Today I have picked a tricky race the Paddy Power Chase :eek:
I don't have time for a major break down but will explain how I arrived at my decision. I have cut off horses above 10st 6 just going with stats there. The fav I reckon has his chance but is no value. So I went for a Dutch 1ptEW Cross Appeal 16/1 and 1pt EW Leanne at 33/1 I think most places are paying 5 places. I would keep an eye on Robert Tyners Horse if he gets in but as of now he does not so he is a no show for me best of luck

mickey1979

Well I have went for another race the 1.10 in Limerick
Awkward moment
This is conditions race and just a bare look says that this one has it all to do and would not be one for me.
Farrells Fancy
I like this one the only thing putting me off is the weight he is giving 7lb to the the bottom two but otherwise he is the form horse. It just depends on what you think is value.
Headford Flyer
NO
Tell Dawstown
NO
Tillanow
No
Maggie Connolly
Willie Mullins is the best for a reason but a little short for me
Sligo Publican
unsure of Form
So I make Maggie Connolly and Farrells 2/1 each of two so no let me go nuts here and go 6pts EW at 3/1 for Farrells Fancy basically as I cannot see him out of the first 3 and 1/2 for that is worth it.

mickey1979

Delighted
Farrells Fancy outgunned in Limerick prob by a better horse returning to form. I have to say the bit that delights me is knowing why he got beat so it's -3pts there

Now Paddy Power
I am not going to claim leanne as its a 5th place but it's plus 7pts there and its plus 20pts for cross appeal so in total without leanne its +15pts on the day.

thought I was goner over the last

mickey1979

There's nothing like a winner to get you working. So I have had a look at tomorrow's racing. I have not found much yet. I looked at the Limerick Race at 2.15 The word minefield is what it is and against my better judgement I have it narrowed down to two. I could nearly bet there will prob be a springer I have not thought about. The two I have come down to are stonehachetmad and Dr Proctor. I have them both in at about 10/1 Dr Proctor is not a relation of that so I will have to swerve him. So I am going with stonehachetmad I am advising one point at 10/1 or plus. I was thinking each way but he really is a win only shot so it's one point on the nose.

UrbanSea

Nice call today mickey.


Isn't your profit for today more than 15 points?

mickey1979

It is Cross Appeal returns 20 however farrells fancy is a loser for 3 and leanne is a loser for two as I am not counting leanne due to not every firm paying 5 places

If your firm did pay 5 places I'd include Leanne in your figures, to be fair you mentioned that most firms were paying 5 places in your pre race post so I think you should most certainly include Leanne

mickey1979

Right infrequent poster but anyway here's what I have done see if it's any use.
20 cent combo tricast
20 cent combo forecast
5.35 Doncaster
No 18,15,13,9,7
total cost 16 euro just interested if it's any use:eek:

mickey1979

no joy so -16 euro
I just also want to keep a track if i had a euro each way on all not backing theory only so
10 euros layed out
22 returned so plus 12

mickey1979

another forecast not so confident this time
Redcar 4.15
11,12,13,14,15
5p Tricast combo
25p Forecast combo
total 8 euro
not backing these a euro each way

mickey1979

Down 24 Euro. But interesting did a couple during the day not that they will make you a profit but doubt you will lose a whole pile either.

mickey1979

Horse for tomorrow
20 euros straight no each way
Tenancy 4.20 Southwell
14/1 Bet 365 will prob be bigger but I have nothing else to go on I am not a form reader on these type of races. Just this horse has a knack of popping up at big prices. Winston is on board and all looks ago. If he has his way hard to beat.

mickey1979

Was doing nothing for a couple of hours so I said I would do a write up for Thurles 5.45
interesting race try do a tissue also.
Beckett Rock
Rated 122 nice horse and looks an honest sort. Just feel in this race his a little out of depth her. Would not say he has no chance but not for me.
Dog Barrell Hill
Not one I would think could win this bad maiden winner in Limerick prob win a few handicap chases. No chance here
Adams Lad
Interesting 126 not overly exposed. Getting five pounds off Beckett Rock and levels with Berties Dream. Barry G on for the Day and I would think this has a right chance. Not sure of the ground. But I would think a good second fav.
Baily Rock
Mouse Morris please do not confound me this horse should not win and will not be one for me other days.
Berties Dream
When I was doing this I was looking for reasons for this horse to get beat. Quite simply there are none. The only doubt in my mind is why is he 5/4 when he should be 1/2. He is well in on the handicap not overly exposed at the distance. Handles the ground Davy Russel on board. If someone wants to notify me to what I am missing great this horse should be 1/2 no doubt in my mind.
Copsiano
No chance
Dancing Tornedo
Well in at the weights. Not my idea of a winner not ideal 3 miles over hurdles prob past his best. Hourigan had a winner on Sunday but I would swerve may yet be wrong.
Empire Son
No chance
Maggie Connolly
Another unexposed sort who gets 2lb off the rest. Stepped up in distance but this horse has had it's problems and I suppose till I see that win I am not going to dive in. Seems to drift most days it runs and I have to ask myself why. Nice horse will win but till it does not going to be there.

Conclusion
I make it 1/2 Berties Dream 5/1 Bar and I wanted to go for Adams Island at the start. I am going to go 6pts Berties Dream and 1pt EW saver Adams Island Berties is best 13/8 in Powers as we speak this is worrying me (They Know More than I) and Adams Island is best 9/2 in ladpox.

mickey1979

I wrote a big long winded write up for 4.15 and after losing it essentially I go for
Galloping Gander 7/2 3 points 4.15 Thurles.

markc91

mickey1979 wrote: »

I wrote a big long winded write up for 4.15 and after losing it essentially I go for
Galloping Gander 7/2 3 points 4.15 Thurles.

Followed ya on both 1 in thanks

mickey1979

Well done. Nice to be right.:D

markc91

mickey1979 wrote: »

Well done. Nice to be right.:D

Fair play man should have done a double

mickey1979

Don't know what the rule 4 situation is here but say to 7 pts less the 2 on Adams Island so thats a profit of 5 and a profit of 10.5 from the earlier race thats 15.5 on the day. Really odd race Empire Theatre should not be second on form and he ran up the bum of Bertie's so I think Berties is prob not as good as he once was.

15.5+:D

mickey1979

Right doing nothing again so I did the 8.50 in Dundalk
Alhella
Useful sort who could be decent. Prob not on the flat though. I don't think today is going to be the day. I doubt much money comes for him either.
Henry Adams
Nice honest horse but who I feel is solidly held by the favourite. He has a nice price but cannot see him improving by the favourite looks my second best.
Mundher
Looks like he will need run and not for me.
Pat Garret
No
Red Star Boy
No
Roe Deer
Looks to be the one here. A little sick as he sticks out. I would be inclined to have him short. Stable can be sticky so follow the money. Wish I had doctors appointment when he was 6/1 came out he was 7/2 now 5/2 and still feel thats value I have him about 1/1.
Fancy Socks
No
No Such Number
They may yet come for him he ran in a bad Curragh maiden. His a Weld I am sure someone has a tip for him and another will say no such thing as a bad Curragh Maiden I would have him Joint Second Fav with John Adams but thats it.
Lady Dance
No
Guess Who
No
Sweet Solitude
No but he could surprise me

Conclusion
So many doubts about the others. John Adams looks solid but held. Weld's looks ordinary Roe Deer barring has his the turn of foot at this distance (do any of them looks a solid one. I am sure he is 1/1 money 5/4 but I am going to allow 6/4 for being wrong and going 5 points at 5/2 in powers wish I had been awake to the 6/1

mickey1979

Keep going to stay out of the bookie shop
I have done a lot on the 9.15 too lazy to write up every horse. I wanted to back Ursa Major but now realise this race is way too hot. I would think that the value of the race is Weld's Horse at 11/4 but if I was going to do something it would be to lay Ursa Major in and around 5/2 so I make her a 7/2-6/1 shot so 2 points lay Ursa Major. Big price difference but I don't know what the others are.

mickey1979

Down 5pts:mad:
Turn of foot well he had none but the others were not much better.
welds horse crap
and the horse I thought a little of won
I was wrong on some things right on some things and went home less five points hope you did not follow me there.

mickey1979

Ouch Burner -5pts was right about Welds if he was value and 11/4 more value at 7/1 this horse of welds is one to follow as things don't seem to be flying for them at the moment.
-10 on the day stay away from laying (will i do it never):mad:

mickey1979

aaaahhhhh I had three for yesterday two each way and one straight. Nine to one winner. 4/5 winner and an 8/1 third sorry I did not post. Won't put up their names as I would be aftertiming. But aaahhhh:mad: