Range Resources (RRL.L) tipped by RHPS

alanceltic

You can talk up the fundamentals all day long about RRL but if Shabeel1 is a duster then horn will sink like a stone and there wont be any saving it.

You would like to think that there is enough in Georgia/Texas/Trinadad alone to support the SP at current levels but RRL will still go sub 8p in my opinion on bad news, Puntland is a flagship marker for RRL and that cuts both ways.... for horn it is do or die (albeit with a second bite of the cherry).

Neil I do hope you are right but it is a concern and only because horn hasnt up to now been a volatile share, just looking at AOI and it has been fairly stable all day with no late movements unlike horn, this at least is something to support what you are thinking. The next 2 weeks are definately squeaky bum time, im thinking this is going to bounce around quite a bit until then.

cooperguy

I have stopped looking at other forums recently too. Its too early for any real news and there is just lots of people posting wild speculation or posting with other agendas. Im waiting till an announcement, either good or bad before I make any more decisions.

Speaking of other boards though, RUM has now officially disappeared? What with my staying off of other boards for a while I only noticed today! Or have I been banned? Since I dont post too often I cant have offended anybodies ego?!

neil.p.b

RUM has shutdown

Thargor

So, any thoughts as we approach TD? HRN still doing well but some disturbing selling action in RMP this morning and RRL well down.

RMP raising this morning aswell, some saying they know its a duster, some say they're raising before a strike like GKP did, scary stuff whatever it is.

AP_MAN

RRL is seriously down trend , worries me, RMP down due to more dilution, but RRL !!!

Thargor wrote: »

So, any thoughts as we approach TD? HRN still doing well but some disturbing selling action in RMP this morning and RRL well down.

RMP raising this morning aswell, some saying they know its a duster, some say they're raising before a strike like GKP did, scary stuff whatever it is.

alanceltic

I have always felt that Horn is the one to watch. This will definately spike or tank pre Puntland news thats for sure. RRL is simply suffering with poor sentiment, cant help but think that PL is holding back news on a number of fronts as an insurance card in the event that Puntland is bad news and boy is it frustrating. I feel for those at a high average with the way this is dragging out.

neil.p.b

I don't think anyone does or is going to know anything before an announcement, hill runs a very tight ship as can be seen with the volume with AOI pre with news.

Not sure what to make of the placement, it being RMP probably makes me bullish, you just have to look at the placement they did at 11p (52 week low) 3-4 weeks before puntland spud news.

Thargor

Seriously tempted to start moving some of my RRL into GKP now, I'm worried even if we strike the selling will be so heavy that the price might not even move. I'm currently 60% up with 500k shares, thinking about selling 200-250k of them and putting it in GKP, the way everything takes so long with Range GKP could be taken over before anything happens, every time they drill they add more to their reserves.

neil.p.b

I'm looking to take a longer term position in GKP as well. I still think it needs to test 203 before it starts moving up again, the last two times it broke resistance and made new highs it tested the resistance 3-4 months later which would indicate prices testing 203 later this month, though it it breaks 245ish i'd need to re-think entry timing. I can post chart later/tomorrow if interested.

I'm hoping range strike shabeel before then obviously to take full advantage of the timing as it will be RRL funds being used to purchase GKP. Just one point on "every time they drill they add more to their reserves" - GKP isn't totally priced on oil at the minute but politics and standard AIM discounts, but i'm expecting a move to the main FTSE market to lead to a more accurate valuation.

Thargor

Definitely interested in your analysis on GKP Neil, post whatever you're thinking please, theres a GKP thread around here somewhere, I was updating every day when we were rocketing up past 4 quid :mad:

neil.p.b

http://www.screencast.com/t/PpZDSSeSW

GKP is very repetitive in its movements. I know its hard to see the price movement with it being so zoomed out but i needed three years of movement to explain my rationale. In late summer 2009 it hit oil, broke its previous resistance (78) and made two new highs, the latter (130) being in late October which was also in combination with bearish divergence on the RSI. Then in early February 2010 (4 months later) it tested the previous resistance and slightly breached it by 5%ish, it was led down by a strong descending trend line.

This new high now became resistance and it took 11 months to break. Once it did prices made two new highs with the latter (203) accompanied with RSI bearish divergence and occurring in November 2010. Then in late February 2011 (3.5 months later) prices tested the previous resistance and slightly breached it by 5%ish, it was led down by a strong descending trend line. (seeing the similarity!?)

The 203 high then took 14 months to break, unlike the previous resistance breaks prices went on to make 3 new highs and not 2, the highest being 464 in February 2012. These highs were again accompanied with bearish RSI divergence (i meant to point this out on the board when it happen but never got around to it). We're currently seeing a strong descending trend line pushing prices lower. If history repeats itself (so far they are) then prices should touch 203 and possibly 5%ish lower which is roughly 190 (coincidentally a small area of resistance for GKP before 203) within the next month. After doing so there should be scope for a quick bounce before prices settle down a bit before making new highs EOY (based on past performance).

TA is based on probabilities - none of the above assumptions are certainties but past performance gives a good probability to base decisions on. The thing to notice is the current downward trend line - this is what is pushing prices lower. A couple of strong closes above 245 (and lowering by 1ish daily) would indicate a change of trend and a breakout to the upside which would dismiss all of the above and justify taking a position immediately. But until that happens i still think GKP needs to test 203, its gotten close in the last few weeks but never made it down - all the more reason to do it properly now since its so close. Its rare for such an important pivot point on a chart (as 203 was for GKP) not to be tested after breaking and doing so is healthy.

alanceltic

very interesting Neil, thanks for your analysis.

Thargor

Quality stuff Neil thanks, please post anything else you're thinking or doing, I have funds coming in 2-3 weeks and plan on doubling my holding, if Shabeel is a strike Ill be top-slicing into GKP aswell.

neil.p.b

Bought first tranche of GKP at 207 today, happy enough with the price. I still think it'll hit 203 but in a lot of cases it will do so during a small auction which means you've no chance of getting that price. Have another tranche ready to buy if goes down to 190ish or when it breaks above that descending trendline.

Also took out a small long on XTR at .42 - stop at .35.

Thargor

I bumped the GKP thread with a question for you Neil, fecks sake I should have had this sorted a month ago and been ready for this low but BoI are such a useless shower.

Thargor

Can you believe we are at 9.9 here by the way? Fecking nightmare, at least its red everywhere else aswell and the volume is tiny.

neil.p.b

Nightmare - but again doesn't matter too much so close to results. Sold some today - as much as T&T is ranges best asset puntland failure will send this back to 6.5p imo especially in these markets, just want to have some funds available in case thats what happens.

I'm still bullish on Shabeel, especially if we get G spud, T upgrade and Colo details this week - very good sign imo. Also the fact HRN hasn't been pumped and held above $2 is also a good sign - they need that warrant money and they'll know there's no chance of getting it on a non-com hole.

Thargor

neil.p.b wrote: »

Nightmare - but again doesn't matter too much so close to results. Sold some today - as much as T&T is ranges best asset puntland failure will send this back to 6.5p imo especially in these markets, just want to have some funds available in case thats what happens.

I'm still bullish on Shabeel, especially if we get G spud, T upgrade and Colo details this week - very good sign imo. Also the fact HRN hasn't been pumped and held above $2 is also a good sign - they need that warrant money and they'll know there's no chance of getting it on a non-com hole.

Yep totally agree, if it wasnt for HRN Id have been gone from here last month, AoI pulled off a very sucessful Kenya drill with no leaks aswell, it would be more disturbing if we were climbing into results like XTR and BOR did.

Thargor

Massive HRN volume, up nearly 30%, broke through $2 again, big volume in RMP and RRL aswell, good start to the week anyway.

Thargor

Oh sh1t, market didnt like that HRN RNS, looks like its going to be nasty until the next drill, could be a good few weeks ahead of us before anything good now

Man From Delmonte

Well that's not good at all, lots of talk on the forums about loads of oil, and although they found a small amount its not what the market wanted.

Horn, RMP and RRL will all now take a battering!

Im in RRL for the long term, but suffering a big loss here at the moment

Thargor

hope you're not too deep in the red MFD.

Looks like theres the answer to all the RRL vs RMP vs HRN debates, sticking with Range was the thing to do, hopefully now we'll see a ramp up in Trinidad operations and Colombia, but Id be surprised if Colombia doesnt need funding, still though, low share price might encourage them to sell Texas and do a share buyback.

Was tempted to stick the whole thing in GKP when I saw that RNS and the ensuing drop but selling when its like this would be stupid. Just got to wait out the summer now, I wasnt selling before christmas anyway. I will however be dumping all or half of my HRN shares for 100% profit next time they approach $2, no faith in Puntland now.

Than again, more parallels being drawn with RKH and the drop before they had news, the delayed testing equipment could be so they dont have to release anything before the other drill aswell because of the security situation, impossible to know so just have to wait it out.

Man From Delmonte

My average here is just under 14p.

Like yourself I picked up a few of HRN and should have taken a nice profit when they hit $2, to be honest I guess I caught up in the excitement....

At least RRL is nicely diversified with Trinidad and Texas. I cant see anything kicking off in Columbia for a long time yet though.

Lets see what the next drill brings and hope for a better result

Sappa

Man From Delmonte wrote: »

My average here is just under 14p.

Like yourself I picked up a few of HRN and should have taken a nice profit when they hit $2, to be honest I guess I caught up in the excitement....

At least RRL is nicely diversified with Trinidad and Texas. I cant see anything kicking off in Columbia for a long time yet though.

Lets see what the next drill brings and hope for a better result

Did HRN just drop of a cliff before the weekend or have inmissed something,checked this morning and my screen shows a drop from 1.59 to 80 WTF .

neil.p.b

Sappa wrote: »

Did HRN just drop of a cliff before the weekend or have inmissed something,checked this morning and my screen shows a drop from 1.59 to 80 WTF .

http://hornpetroleum.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/horn-petroleum-provides-update-on-puntland-drillin-tsx-venture-hrn-201205170791383001

cooperguy

Ok so it will be June when they start drilling the second well. Then flow testing the two of them when, August time? We're going to have a bumpy few months!

Thargor

Im happy to wait another year, I still don't think there's any shares around with as many prospects to come, cant think of anywhere else Id have my money atm besides GKP.

Good post from Kev Yorks tonight on Worldstocks:

Bloody hell what's with the manic depressive society ATM. Markets are in turmoil, a at best ambiguous and misleading RNS from AOI.................in no way connected to the cut price private placing NOT! Where do you expect the share price to be £1 get a grip and look at what we've got and if you can add further at these prices add. As for the ones think there's a conspiracy of pumping and dumping I'll assure you I ain't part of it as you can see by these badly timed top ups http://screencast.com/t/0X6txrWNLhttp://screencast.com/t/6mieiV0l8NQhhttp://screencast.com/t/BrQGO32Tax

Am I crying about it like hell I am because long term this company is worth many many multiples of the current share price, get a grip and look at what we've got.

Texas valuation and its out of date another 50% to be added here after the last drills http://www.rangeresources.com.au/filead ... d_copy.pdf now if this goes to a share buy back capital return or company running costs is immaterial after the sale its still going to be $50mill plus to the company.

Georgia yes its gone Tits up last year but we now have someone to run and manage the whole process out there taking our management out of the equation. Even on a sale prior to drilling its worth a chunk with all the additional seismic's, but with the clever plan to initially drill three quick shallow wells and a ready buyer for the off take there's added value there.

Puntland now a proven Active HC basin in Dharoor so again the sale value is already increased, but ask yourself what do the "PRIVATE" investors know that you don't to make them part with there cash?

Nugal the big brother of Dharoor look at the declassification documents Conoco all but declared a Oil strike and there studies where estimating production of 100k bopd from the area.

Offshore Nugal its the same rift as can be seen herehttp://screencast.com/t/E9XtDD8POnCl and the basin beyond has deep sediments that are believed to be from the Arabian region prior to the formation of the gulf. The sediments in this North Somali basin are exceptionally thick (in excess of 2km) due to them being confined by the chain ridge.http://screencast.com/t/8E94uLbzpTn

Colombia 3 billion OIP figure to be increased after further seismic's not only that a prior Oil discovery well on the block that will be redrilled the oil has gone nowhere since the 70's when the 20-30 dollar oil price and then no pipelines made un-economic. Wells in the area produce approx 3-4k bopd, better yet its one of the lowest Tax and Royalty oil provinces in the world now has a pipeline infrastructure close to the fields and a contractual agreement from the Colombian Government to take production at market rates.

Trinidad the crown jewel in the portfolio 100% ours and at present each 1k bopd is worth $12mill per annum this will increase as economies of scale kick in. Forget abot PL's figures as you don't trust them anyway.

Shallows (up to 3000ft) we have three shallow drilling rigs operating now. Just to keep things conservative we'll discount one rig and work the numbers on only two of them. So in 12 month from now at two weeks a drill that's 48 new wells with only 2/3 of the shallow drill fleet. We'll go the lowest of bopd estimates 50bopd many wells are coming in over 100bopd so in 12 months we can expect a conservative 2400bopd from the shallows.

Intermediate drills a bit deeper so to be even more conservative and discount 50% of the fleet of two rigs. So 1 rig drilling one well per month again using the lowest estimated bopd figure of 150 bopd will add another 1800bopd (4200bopd total)

Hererra's we've a second deep rig as mentioned in the Christmas presentation so again basing on only one rig. Super generous on time and allow them 4 months per drill. (Our blocks are on trend and only 4km from a producing Hererra drill so i'm assuming strikes) the closest one is producing just shy of 1500bopd but again discount this down to 1k bopd and three wells in 12 months is adding another 3k bopd (approx 7200bopd) add to this current production of approx 800bopd gives us in 12 months a conservative 8k bopd@ $12mill clear profit per 1k bopd per annum. So annual profits of $96mill.

The above is all without the UC which is thought to be larger than the Hererra's, water recovery (figures in the presentation) what's not in the presentation is the fact a trial field is already in pressure build up mode (this can be verified in some of the TT photo's) additional profits due to economies of scale as production ramps up and the Tax Royalty discounts the Trinidad Government are willing to give for all Oil produced by enhanced recovery methods.

Further to all this we have cash in the bank, debt deal all but finalised, interest paying loan to CC and a equity stake in Tangiers.

Now for fooks sake stop the whinging and moaning, shares like this are not a get rich quick money making scam but a investment of cash and time. (It'll be a lot of years before you get another one like Range though at this price if there ever is another one)..........In Range its as good as your own personal ATM if your willing to let the BOD do there job.

Right Rant over flame away.

Kev

Thargor

Horn surging by 36% there in the last couple of hours after Keith Hill at a presentation in Stockholm said a 75% chance Shabeel is commercial and was shocked at the drop after the RNS last week, feeling a bit relieved to say the least.

Thargor

Oh yeah and he also said probably $10 a barrel from Puntland.

neil.p.b

Nice of him to mention all that after the placement