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DOMESTIC WIND TURBINES
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I am no expert on the maintenance of domestic turbines but i would ask if you have ever serviced one yourself ?
Yes, many times, I don't charge though.
Of course I don't wnat the price of power to rise but it will.Ireland already has one of the highest electricity prices in the world. You want them to go higher ?
Most countries including Germany are reviewing how they subsidise renewables, and in particular wind.
They may be reviewing but at the same time they're introducing new and bigger incentives towards renewables.
A 15 year pay-back period would represent a return on investment of about 6.66% per year, not bad considering what you wouls receive from a bank.
The incentives aren't guaranteed to last forever but the sentiment on all sides is that they will be staying put, there's considerable disappointment at the low rate of uptake for the tarriff so that will most probably actually be increasing in the next few years - that will improve the return again.
Figures - 5500 units per year (as long as the site is suitable that's a fairly conservative estimate on output) = €907 x 15 = €13605 (not taking into account any incentives),more than most 3kw turbines would cost (including maintenance).
There ya go.
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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Where did you get that from ? Even the Sunday Business post did a story on it yesterday on the loss of subsidies across Europe.
I'm basing that on my businesss (I distribute inverters around the world), demand has rocketed due to the new tarriffs, I'm not basing my opinion on something I read in a papaer.A 15 year payback is not realistic. Even best case you are looking at 18 years and the vast majority of sites would be looking at 25+ years.
But putting that aside.
In a Bank getting 1% return you capital is intact so you make a 1% return on top of your capital.
In your case after 15 years you are standing still, you only just made your initial investment back which due to inflation is now worth a faction of what it was initially. You are making a 0% return over 15 years (based on your figures)
Purely as an investment you would be far better off with your money in a Bank. Look at the solidarity bind 50% return over 10 years.
So you count the turbine apying for itself completely as a non-return???
My turn to ask, where on earth are you getting this information from, my offices in Spain, Germany, Finland, The UK and here are all pre-ordered for the next 6 months due to the new tarriffs.I really really doubt it. It would also fly in the face of what the rest of the world is doing.Where are you getting 5500 units from ?
On a 3Kw turbine that's a 20% load factor. Some large commercial 3MW turbines struggle to achieve this.
Apparently this one achieved a 4% load factor (Data collected over 4 years.)
http://www.caerdelyn.co.uk/winddata.html
Google the Warwick wind trials. (this was for building mounted turbines)
Even small turbine manufacturers wont quote a figure over 15 to 17% and that's for an ideal location.
Most domestic turbines will struggle to achieve 10% load factors.
Where are you getting your figures from ?
My figures (actually 5635units) are based on the return from a 3kw machine on a 6.5m.sec site I've been studying for the past year plus, I've worked on the design of the turbine but I have to say it's not exceptional really. I don't know about your load figures but I'm looking at genuine outputs.
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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Actually questioning my professional qualifications on an open forum is very offensive and just trolling.No offence but I have to wonder about someone who distributes invertors around the world but does not understadn the difference between power and energy.Invertors have amny many uses outside of windturbines.
Not mine I'm afraid, wind and solar only.
Can you please site a source for this information? My suppliers would be very interested.The reasons I mentioned the newspaper article is that if they have a story on it then the dogs on the street allready know about it.
I can state for a fact that Spain, Germany, Denmark and most other European countries are reviewing the policies on subsidies. Most have allready announced cuts or outright removal of subsidies.
Have you any evidence at all to show that subsidies are increasing ?
I never implied they were due for increase, Germany, Spain and the UK have all introduced new feed in tarrifs.
I would expect my initial deposit plus 100% just like having a turbine and the sum it cost returned. You should factor in future returns from the turbine, I'd bet the bank don't.If you went to the bank and were promised a 100% return over 15 years what would you expect to get ?So you are looking at actual outputs from a site where a turbine has been installed for over a year ?
If so then that's an excellent site... (it must be located right on the west coast (probably Donegal or Sligo) on an elevated site. In fact I would go so far as to say that its an amazingly exceptional site.
Arfaid not it's in Meath, my R&D site. I have seen outputs from that turbine in excess of 6kw at times, that did suprise me but they were the exception, not the rule, I have it rated to 3kw at 10m.sec now, it's tipping along nicely.But that's my point its site specific. You will not replicate it in another site. A 20% load factor is exceptional, almost unheard of, a 10% load factor would be on the good side of average and 4 to 5% not untypical.
No, that was not your point at all, I've already stated thay are completely reliant on the conditions on site - you just concluded anything to do with them was a mug's game.
I don't see how, show me the evidence that on a good open site with an throughput of about 6-7 m.sec averahe over the year that a turbine will not meet an output of about 5k units?What you are saying, what you are claiming as typical flies in the face of what every other organisation has shown, proven and demonstrated.
The links I gave you were to real world sites. One had data from 4 years showing a 4% load factor....... And that was not even an urban site.
Proven, Fortis and most Chinese are capable of that. They all publish their outputs and it's pretty easy to correlate from their information what you could expect from your site.
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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Budget and pre budget comments from a number of European states have discussed this. it has been widely discussed in trade publications and more recently in the mainstream media.
I will dig out a link to one of the many stories later.
Cool.After 15 to 20 years you will have received your initial investment back your your initial asset is no longer worth what you paid, it is also near end of life so your return is nowhere near 100% or even close to it.
As for future returns. You do realise that you will also make additional returns if you leave your investment in the bank ?
Even if you extend the terms on investment to cover the life of the turbine (approx 25 years) you will not make a 100% return.
I disagree on that.
Yes and no, during testing it overran up to 6kw, I have restricted it to 6 but realistically it shouldn't top 4kw with it's current power curve.Let me get this correct. You have a 3kw windturbine that is outputting 6kw ?Any chance of sharing details on that particular turbine ? Manufacturer \ model ?
Most wind 3kw turbines will have a rated max output of 4kw before over protection kick in and stops generating electriciy.
It's a Turbotricity turbine that is used to test a variety of inverters and blades.
As I said, I have restricted it to 4kw in reality, though it could pass that if the windspeed went over 14m.sec (it has on occasion) and I removed the restrictive curve.I am amazed...... and stunned......... 20% + load factor in a location that could be no definition be described as an ideal location...... You appear to have demonstrated that SEI, the Irish Wind energy Organisation. SoI and many others that they are wrong.
I disagree on that too, this turbine is only doing what it's designed to do, it's location is far from terrible for throughput.
What load factor are you talking about? 20% of output? From what exactly?
I could stick a 10kw generator on a 3m set of blades and call it a 3kw unit (if that's what I expected from it), I wouldn't recommend trying that though lol.I have already linked to a number of reports which you have chosen to ignore.
Lets look at this logically for a moment.
An average wind speed of 6 - 7 m/sec means nothing.
It could mean that for 10 months of the year that wind speeds are 2-3 m/sec but the other two wind speeds are up and 50 -60 m/sec due to winter storms.
It might mean that you only actually achieve 6 - 7 m/s for 15 days in the year.
Lets look at the specs of a random wind turbine.
Type: 3 Blade Upwind
Rotor Diameter: 4.7 m
Start-up Wind Speed: 2.5 m/s (5.6 mph)
Cut-in Wind Speed: 3 m/s (6.7 mph)
Rated Wind Speed: 10m/s (22.4mph)
Rated Power: 3000 Watts
Maximum Power: ~ 4000 Watts
Cut-Out Wind Speed: 15m/s(33.5mph)
Timing manner: automatically adjust the windward angle
Overspeed Protection: AutoFurl
Temperature Range: -40 to +60 Deg. C (-40 to +140 Deg. F)
Generator: Permanent Magnet Alternator
Output Form: 240 VDC Nominal
Tower Height: 9m
So anything below 3 m/s or over 15 m/s it will generate nothing.
Between 3m/s and 10 m/s it will generate something between 0 and 3kw
Between 10m/s and 15 m/s it will generate between 3 and 4 kw
If you picked 20 sites all with an average wind speed of 7m/s and installed the exact same wind-turbine you will get 20 hugely different outputs as actual wind conditions will vary hugely from site to site.
That is true, I haven't argued against any of that, my point is that there are still many locations where a turbine will make sense.
For a 3kw your rotor is quite large and your tower is short.
There are many different kinds of turbine on sale here, each works very differently from the other, some make most of their power (claimed) over 12m.sec others are making 2kw at 8-9m.sec but struggle to their peak of 3.5kw. Some sit in between.I also notice that you have avoided bringing up your initial claims regarding C02 and fuel savings attributable to domestic wind turbines.
Please... I still maintain a unit of electricity generated from a clean supply is saving both money and waste, I always will, you won't change my opinioon on that.
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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people if the ESB is sold (and it probably will be with all the noise in the media lately)
then the equation unfortunately changes to making it impractical to buy wind generators since no one will be willing to buy your energy
just some food for thought
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people if the ESB is sold (and it probably will be with all the noise in the media lately)
then the equation unfortunately changes to making it impractical to buy wind generators since no one will be willing to buy your energy
just some food for thought
I don't think it will have any impact to be honest.
In theory the generation and distribution systems are separated. Your electricity is bought by eirgrid and no the ESB.
No matter what happens I cannot see the state selling eirgrid.0 -
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errrr. What part exactly ?
You have already agreed on the payback.
Is it that you don't agree that a bank will continue to pay interest ?
Or that in 15 to 20 years that the turbine will not be worth what you paid for it ?
I really don't see what you don't agree with ?
I disagree that it isn't an investment, your argument assumes electricity costs won't rise in the future.Load factor is a basic principle of wind power generation. Its equally applicable in large scale wind farms as small scale domestic turbines.
Without an understanding of load factor you cannot make any decision on windpower any more than you could design a grid without understanding the difference between power and energy.
I cannot emphasise enough how fundamental this stuff is to any discussion on renewables.
A turbine is rated by the manufacturer at a rated output. This is a fixed value.
The load factor is a variable for each turbine and relates to a specific location.
In simple terms it is the percentage of the rated output that a turbine will generate for a specific location over an extended period.
In Ireland load factors for large commercial wind farms are relatively well known and vary from about 35% to 20% with most being in the 25% to 30% range. The highest load factors are typically achieved on the West Coast (particularly the NW) and the lowest in the midlands and east coast.
Every turbine has 1 rated capacity but every wind farm has two, an installed capacity and an output capacity which is basically a result of the load factor.
I understand that, I just wanted to know what your interpretation of load was. It's hard to argue with someone when they don't explian their agrument.
I don't disagree with any of that, but as the output from domestic turbines increases (as more are installed) demand from the traditional producers should reduce, I agree it is variable but modern plants can reduce output (and therefore cost, emissions etc) to suit this, at least that's what they claim.So what part of the argument do you not agree with ?
Do you disagree that the output from the grid can be varied to compensate for the output from your wind turbine ?It is an undeniable fact that the grid cannot adjust to the variable output from a domestic turbine.
As a result when your turbine generates 1kw\h of energy it does not mean that 1kw/h less is generated by the grid.
No net economic saving or C02 saving. In fact by having to buy back your electricity (which in effect is worthless to the grid) is adding to the cost of electricity in Ireland.
The only way domestic wind power would have any impact on Ireland electricity market was if every house was connected to the grid. However this would require a multi billion redesign and rebuild of the grid while remaining an expensive method of power generation.
Look at it this way.
if we accept your figures then a 3kw turbine will cost about 13K installed ?
so a 3 MW install would be 1,000 x 13,000 or 13 million
Accepting your load factor of 20% (which I still maintain is achievable in 99% of location in Ireland) that would give us an output of 0.6MW
So €13,000,000 capital cost to generate 0.6MW or 21.6 million per MW.
Now funnily enough Board gais recently built a gas station in Cork rated at 445MW (that output by the way) at a cost of under 400 million so a total cost of €898,000 per MW.
That a difference of €12,102,000 or just over €12 million per MW or on a station this size over €5,340,000,000 or €5.3 Billion
Now I know the running cost of the domestic turbine will be very small but how long do you think that they could run that plant for €5.3 billion ?
Does that do anything to revise your opinion ?
You're arguing on a scale, that's silly, that's like saying I overpaid on my car or house because I didn't buy a thousand of them at the time.
We're talking about individuals here and their ability to reduce their reliance on the grid and their costs, not an alternative electricity source for the country, a penny saved is a penny earned, therefore a turbine is a good purchase for someone on a good site.
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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And I thought you were a good environmentalist !!!
You are not looking at the entire picture. Indeed you very argument quoted above shows that you are only interested at looking at the individual tree rather than the entire forest and ignore the wider impact.
I was always told to examine the entire life cycle and the knock on impact of any decision.
I'm not an environmentalist at all, I'm into self sustainability and saving.
This thread is about domestic wind turbines and what they can contribute to the individual's home, they have other benefits IMO but that's not the topic.
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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I think thats a bit unfair, and I dont like to say, you have if you look at impartially which I am trying to do have a vested interest (not an attack) but are those invertors for small scale turbines? what location are they used in, that would make all the difference as their are so many locations where it would be viable to feed into the grid, but also overall what is the percentage of invertors being sold in total compared to the amount of installations??
Inverters are up to 6kw (the majority) and all are for small scale domestic use. The inverters are bought by installers and turbine owners from all sorts of places from the ideally suited for turbines to the not quite so ideal.
I don't really understand the rest of your question, could you clarify?
MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!
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