Korean Situation.

BluePlanet

monosharp wrote: »

Yeah it is 'disputed' kind of. As in the rest of the world (perhaps not china) recognises the Souths claim.

I think it's "disputed" because while the islands are part of the armistice agreement, the water is not and has been the site of numerous clashes between the 2.

To resolve the matter would require that the parties of conflict actually agree on a boundary.

gandalf

ARGINITE wrote: »

North Korea will do nothing, they are just saber rattling as normal.
Last year while I was there I was worried about the North and there nuclear tests, the Korean's I worked with told me not to worry it is normal for the North to do things like that.

I hope thats the case. This current situation just appears a bit more tense than the previous ones I remember.

BluePlanet wrote: »

I think it's "disputed" because while the islands are part of the armistice agreement, the water is not and has been the site of numerous clashes between the 2.

To resolve the matter would require that the parties of conflict actually agree on a boundary.

And for them to agree a boundary they have to cease the state of war between them.

ballsymchugh

Manic Moran wrote: »

You can argue that the North Vietnamese won Vietnam despite the US having air superiority. It is also worth pointing out that NATO never claimed air superiority over Yugoslavia at under 15,000 feet.

After the 1991 war, an Iraqi Brigade commander was reported as saying something akin to "After two weeks of air bombardment I lost 5% of my tanks. After two minutes fighting against American tanks, I lost all my tanks"

Korea v1.5 would be fought and won by artillery, infantry, and ground vehicles, in that order. Air power would be a factor, but not the deciding one.

NTM

US soldiers aren't flavour of the year in Pyongyang!!

monosharp, their missile technology isn't the greatest if they launch something that's hoped to be able to reach japan at least, but falls a few miles out into the sea. iran would want to ask for a receipt on anything they buy from them.
i wouldn't underestimate the army simply because they're told great stories like the axe incident where an american soldier on the border threw an axe at an NK soldier, only for him to catch it, and throw it back killing the american. these stories, while making most people roll eyes, fill the brainwashed with courage that they should strive for. most north korean kids want to be in the army, it's the highest level of prestige they can get, unless their parents are government officials and it's easier for them to get a job as an official too. but like i said in another thread, many of the army just use it as a means for clothing and food.

BluePlanet

ARGINITE wrote: »

North Korea will do nothing, they are just saber rattling as normal.
Last year while I was there I was worried about the North and there nuclear tests, the Korean's I worked with told me not to worry it is normal for the North to do things like that.

Yeah i'd like to believe that but this "saber rattling" appears to be coming from the South, not the North.
In their view, they've acted defensively against military aggression being shown them from the South in concert with USA.

Currenlty the South is now parading around a "anti-submarine exercise".

Here's hoping they keep their distance this time.

Manic Moran

i wouldn't underestimate the army simply because they're told great stories like the axe incident where an american soldier on the border threw an axe at an NK soldier, only for him to catch it, and throw it back killing the american

Is that what the North Koreans are being told? Because it doesn't bear much similarity to the real incident.

I have heard that NK have 10,000 artillery peices aimed at Seoul...

Somewhat overstated. That said, even a much smaller number would still create plenty of panic and cause mass migration.

Your severely underestimating the North.

With respect, I never made any statement about the outcome, or how close-fought it would be. I just said that the main factors were going to be artillery, infantry and ground vehicles over air power, things both sides have in fair abundance. I know of no US soldiers who think that Korea v1.5 would be a cakewalk, most of the US personnel stationed on the border expect to DIP*, but take a lot of the NK momentum with them.

North Korea may well be a third world country, but the Army get fed and trained at the cost of everything else

70% of nothing is.. let me do the maths here... still nothing. KPA training is generally limited to regimental level and below infantry tasks. Maneuvering a mechanised battalion consumes massive amounts of fuel. To give you an example, a US tank battalion will consume about 50,000 gallons of fuel in one day of operations (Conservative estimate), fuel that DPRK can ill-afford to spend. (Granted, KPA battalions are smaller, with more fuel-efficient tanks, but the point of expenditure stands). There will be the occasional dog-and-pony shows for the cameras, but they are sually of limited training benefit. Two years ago the Army were instruted to spend more time sleeping instead of training in order to conserve energy: They weren't getting fed enough.

They also have failed to inform us that the warship was part of:

what the Pentagon has called "one of the world's largest simulated exercises" was underway. This war exercise, known as "Key Resolve/Foal Eagle" was launched on March 8 and was slated to continue until April 30

During the Cold War, NATO and WARPAC vessels would routinely conduct exercises against each other, let alone with themselves, (Particularly against submarines, if a submarine was detected, it would be hounded without notification by active sonars until they signified 'you win' by surfacing or managed to escape) and they tended to avoid shooting at each other with live rounds.

NTM

*Die In Place

dlofnep

ARGINITE wrote: »

North Korea will do nothing, they are just saber rattling as normal.
Last year while I was there I was worried about the North and there nuclear tests, the Korean's I worked with told me not to worry it is normal for the North to do things like that.

Exactly, it's just a load of posturing.

nacho libre

The son is trying to emerge from his father's shadow.
As was said South Korea could already have enacted some sort of revenge and we'll likely not hear about it.

Bob the Seducer

BluePlanet wrote: »

Yeah i'd like to believe that but this "saber rattling" appears to be coming from the South, not the North.
In their view, they've acted defensively against military aggression being shown them from the South in concert with USA.

Currenlty the South is now parading around a "anti-submarine exercise".

Here's hoping they keep their distance this time.

What?

The international report released in the last few days found the North responsible for the Cheonan's sinking back in March, likely by a torpedo from a mini sub - hence the South's public anti-submarine exercises today.
It's basically to make the statement "we know what you've done and we know how to deal with it if you try it again".

monosharp

Manic Moran wrote: »

Is that what the North Koreans are being told? Because it doesn't bear much similarity to the real incident.

Of course it doesn't, you'd hardly expect them to tell the truth now would you ?

70% of nothing is.. let me do the maths here... still nothing.

They're a third world country yes, they are poor yes, but nothing ? I was up there last year at a joint industrial zone, SK companies, NK employees and while it is clearly very backward and poor, your very much over exaggerating the situation.

You might want to read up on their economy at the moment, wiki is alright to get an overview. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea#Economy

You should also read up on their military first policy.

Two years ago the Army were instruted to spend more time sleeping instead of training in order to conserve energy: They weren't getting fed enough.

Ah I see the North Koreans aren't the only ones getting fed propaganda :pac:

ballsymchugh

Manic Moran wrote: »

Is that what the North Koreans are being told? Because it doesn't bear much similarity to the real incident.

as monosharp said, of course it doesn't. but it's what they're taught. just like we were told the stories of fionn mccumhaill and the giants causeway, it's a folklore tale that's taken as truth. trying to keep a straight face while being told this by a guide is pretty hard.
you can add it to the tales of a new flower blooming in the mountains the day kim il sung was born, even though he was more than likely born in a refugee camp in siberia.
it's all fantasy, but it's taken as truth by north koreans. or else they're sent to the labour camps.

Bob the Seducer

Here's an extract from the North Korean news after the report on the ship sinking came out:

CPRK Declares Resolute Actions against S. Korea

Pyongyang, May 25 (KCNA) -- A spokesman of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea Tuesday issued the following statement:

Traitor Lee Myung Bak of south Korea on Monday made public a "statement to the people" over the case of the sinking of a warship of its puppet army, in which he viciously slandered the DPRK again. He formally announced a ban on the passage of DPRK's ships through waters of the south side, "stop to trade and exchange between the south and the north", the exercise of "the right to self-defense" and the reference of the case to the UNSC, daring vociferate about "responsibility" and "apology".

Then the chiefs of the puppet ministries of defense, foreign affairs and trade and unification called a joint press conference at which they ballyhooed about follow-up measures.

This is little short of formally declaring that they would not rule out a war by standing in confrontation with the DPRK to the last.

It is traitor Lee Myung Bak and his puppet conservative group that should be responsible for the said case, apologize for it and face a punishment as it is a tragic product of their despicable sycophantic and treacherous moves and reckless actions for escalating confrontation with fellow countrymen.

As far as the "results of investigation" announced by the puppet group are concerned, their conspiratorial nature is brought into bolder relief as the days go by to be ridiculed by the world, as they are peppered with contradictions and doubts.

Now that traitor Lee Myung Bak is taking the lead in shifting the blame for the case on to the DPRK and formally challenging it with reckless provocations despite the above-said hard reality, the DPRK is compelled to opt for taking resolute punitive measures as it had already declared internally and externally.

The DPRK had already solemnly declared that it would regard the puppet group's anti-DPRK smear campaign over the sinking of the warship as a declaration of a war against the DPRK and mete out a merciless and strong punishment if the group dare defile its dignity.

The rest of the article is at this link:
http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2010/201005/news25/20100525-06ee.html

This Japanese hosted site gives a translation of the North Korean news, normally a day after it's been published.

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

Manic Moran

They're a third world country yes, they are poor yes, but nothing ? I was up there last year at a joint industrial zone, SK companies, NK employees and while it is clearly very backward and poor, your very much over exaggerating the situation.

I don't think so. High intensity warfare absolutely eats up resources that NK simply doesn't have a lot of. Most of their Air Force pilots tend to have 30 hours a year or less. I racked up that much in my Cessna in three months. Annual tank gunnery is three to five rounds vs about thirty for a US tanker. Low level infantry maneuver training only takes up a resource that NK has a lot of: Infantry. I've little reason to believe that on a platoon-for-platoon level, KPA infantry isn't every bit as good as ROK infantry in terms of training. It's when you try for synergy that things fall apart for the North.

You should also read up on their military first policy.

I am aware of it, which is why I threw out a rather high number of 70%. But unless DPRK has an oil field that I'm not aware of, fuel availability alone is going to be a major constrictor in their training.

NTM

Lentil

Sabre rattling hopefully. I would hazard a guess that China plays a constant role in mediations behind closed doors with NK as the last thing the Chinese would want is some sort of conflict on their backdoor. So they would hopefully be putting the squeeze on NK as they are NK's biggest supplier of food & arms.

SLUSK

Game theory is so much more fun when one of the actors is insane.

monosharp

Manic Moran wrote: »

I don't think so. High intensity warfare absolutely eats up resources that NK simply doesn't have a lot of. Most of their Air Force pilots tend to have 30 hours a year or less. I racked up that much in my Cessna in three months. Annual tank gunnery is three to five rounds vs about thirty for a US tanker.

Sorry I think we just had a misunderstanding. Yeah the Norths Air Force + Navy + Armour wouldn't last long against the South or the States. The air force is more or less a given, armour however depends a lot on movement and the lay of the land so while the South and States clearly have the advancement re technology and munitions, the terrain could play a very big factor here.

I am aware of it, which is why I threw out a rather high number of 70%. But unless DPRK has an oil field that I'm not aware of, fuel availability alone is going to be a major constrictor in their training.

I'd wager that even if China were not to intervene (which I do believe they would) they would still supply the North. The last thing China wants is a US controlled state on their border.

maninasia

Isn't that industrial zone the only true one in the country. You can bet it is in better shape than anywhere else.

Basically nobody knows who is running North Korea and it seems there is confusion there, this act of aggression at this point of time, along with their currency disaster last year...looks like a mess.

Manic Moran

I'd wager that even if China were not to intervene (which I do believe they would) they would still supply the North. The last thing China wants is a US controlled state on their border.

I don't think the Chinese are under any misconceptions about the outcome of a fight, even if they did supply the DPRK. If it comes to blows, NK will lose. Better for Chinese they not have been supplying them than have been in such an event. The only possibility I can think of where this would not be the case would be if China felt like using a Korean War v1.5 as a distraction for their own grab of some place like the Spratleys.

NTM

monosharp

Manic Moran wrote: »

I don't think the Chinese are under any misconceptions about the outcome of a fight, even if they did supply the DPRK. If it comes to blows, NK will lose. Better for Chinese they not have been supplying them than have been in such an event.

I don't think you quite realise china's position. They will not, under any circumstances, allow a US allied state right on their border. If NK starts to fall to SK/US then China will have no choice but to go to war to take back North Korea as their buffer zone. Its not even a question of 'if', its absolutely guaranteed regardless of the consequences, they could not allow it.

There are several reasons, most of which I'm sure your aware, but others I guess you don't. North of North Korea, the area that would be known to us as Manchuria, there is a Chinese province with a very large Korean ethnic group. Technically they are Chinese citizens but culturally and ethnically they are Korean, most of them speak Korean. Korea used to be a lot larger then just the peninsula, it used to encompass Manchuria and even parts of present day Russia.

If the Korean peninsula were united then there would likely be an influx of these Chinese of Korean decent. It would also result in nationalistic sentiment in the province regarding their Korean past.

The Chinese have enough problems with ethnic tensions, former states looking for more autonomy, Tibet being the one best known to the west. They couldn't allow this to happen, even if this was the only reason, which it most certainly isn't.

War with NK would mean war with China and thats a war the US would loose.

maninasia

I don't see this reading at all...a unified Korea would obivate the need for US bases and presence there. Plus South Korea and China have large mutual interests.

monosharp

maninasia wrote: »

Isn't that industrial zone the only true one in the country. You can bet it is in better shape than anywhere else.

No there are more zones then Kaesong, I think China has 2. Kaesong is a join zone with SK.

Oh no your absolutely right of course its in better shape then most of the rest of the country.

monosharp

maninasia wrote: »

I don't see this reading at all...a unified Korea would obivate the need for US bases and presence there. Plus South Korea and China have large mutual interests.

Obliterate the need for US bases etc ? They would never leave if they had a presence in a state with a border with China.

maninasia

I mean as part of post-unification agreement in Korea, it's most likely they would be asked to leave by Koreans, then Koreans would sign a pact with China.

monosharp

maninasia wrote: »

I mean as part of post-unification agreement in Korea,

Well, a few problems.

While the older generation Koreans do want re-unification, the younger generations most certainly do not want it for economic reasons. East and West Germany are examples always cited here as arguments against it.

23 million starving North Koreans descending on a country that until 20 years ago was a police state/dictatorship with a very capitalist mentality. Work (very hard) or starve on the street as homeless, American style.

I used to work with a lot of North Korean refugees in the South and one of the most common problems was the North Koreans complete inability to take care of themselves financially. I don't mean unable to get work and get a salary I mean manage themselves financially. The system is completely alien to them and 9 times out of 10 they simply cannot adapt to it.

South Korea is simply incapable of absorbing the North, it would be many times worse then the German reunification.

it's most likely they would be asked to leave by Koreans, then Koreans would sign a pact with China.

They were asked to leave the South a few years ago (Under the former president Roh Moo-hyun or his predecessor I can't remember) and they refused, or rather publically they were asked to leave, privately they refused and publically it was hushed up.

Koreans have a very strange relationship with the US. Some of them despise them because of the division of Korea. Many people don't realise this but the blame for the division of Korea can largely be placed at the feet of Harry Truman and Roosevelt. Truman asked Stalin to occupy the Northern half of the peninsula, which he did, and the US occupied the south half taking the Japanese surrender. The Koreans were unanimously opposed to this.

Eventually the US put their own pro-US Korean-American dictator in charge in the South while the Soviets did the same in the North. The American choice was just as bad as Kim Il-Sung was in the North, to this day he is highly regarded as having ordered the assassination of a very popular Korean leader who would likely have won any free election North or South and could very well have united the peninsula without a single drop of blood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Gu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea
From wiki; "The three powers declared that "mindful of the enslavement of the people of Korea [we] are determined that in due course Korea shall become free and independent.” For Korean nationalists who wanted immediate independence, the phrase "in due course" was cause for dismay."

So many Koreans hate the US, many of them love the US and this attitude changes like the wind. One administration will want the US to start winding down its presence (or leave) and the next one will look for a stronger relationship.

maninasia

Some good info there I wasn't aware of. Still I think if the chance for unification comes up it will happen, emotional ties. They will try to control the flow of people going south though and it would be a big burden on S.Korea considering the desperate state of the people in N.Korea and their education standards.

BluePlanet

tubos wrote: »

Just stumbled across this thread, I was speaking with a Korean colleague of mine who is a bit wary of the information we are receiving regarding the recent sinking of the vessel, he believes that with the upcoming elections in the south on June 2nd, this situation is playing into the hands of the current government who have been unpopular until now.

There is a letter in the Irish Times echoing this sentiment.

A chara, – The situation in the Korean peninsula is considerably less clear-cut that it may appear to those privy to selected information.

In a predominantly conservative country where the media does not criticise the government’s actions, there is also considerable distrust in the Lee administration’s accusations against North Korea. It is election time in South Korea at present and the deeply unpopular president Lee Myung-bak is fighting for political survival following a stream of unpopular manoeuvres with which he began his term of office.

There is a belief that this catastrophe was not North Korea’s doing. Comparisons have been made with the United States’ invasion of Iraq, and Hilary Clinton’s arrival on the scene and the renewal of stronger co-operation between the United States and South Korea, have further highlighted questions of collusion.

President Lee has been eager to confront North Korea following almost 10 years of the “Sunshine Policy” initiated by the Nobel Laureate, Kim Dae Jung. Lee’s provocative declaration to “maintain the principle of proactive deterrence” outside the Korean War Memorial sent a clear signal of the government’s intentions to change the national approach. Nationalism is serious business in South Korea and Lee has tapped the right vein during election season.

People are unconvinced by the government’s delayed response to the sinking of the ship, and they also question how the state-of-art Cheonan equipped with torpedo detection devices and the latest sonar could be actually sunk? The nature of the international investigation, led by the Korean military and supported by the United States military, is also highly questionable.

Koreans have called for an independent and transparent investigation of the accident but the government continues to swing its handbag in the face of an easily provoked foe. China’s reluctance to act on this matter is likely to have been triggered by these facts also. South Korea and the international community have more to lose than the country with the largest military in the world, North Korea.

A clearer picture must be painted of this situation if an international reaction via the United Nations is to be processed.

North Korea basket-case presents an awfully easy target for a nefarious campaign. People in the western world will reflexively believe the narrative that the North would just torpedo out-of-the-blue a perfectly innocent South Korean warship.
They may have torpedoed it, but not unprovoked i reckon.
I'd say there's more to this story then what we are led to believe.

gandalf

So BluePlanet you are suggesting that South Korea sank one of its own ships and murdered 40 odd sailors so the ruling party could win an election?

BluePlanet

deadtiger wrote: »

So BluePlanet you are suggesting that South Korea sank one of its own ships and murdered 40 odd sailors so the ruling party could win an election?

No, i'm suggesting the South may have provoked a response from NK via military incursions into their territory and by firing on one of their vessels.

gandalf

BluePlanet wrote: »

No, i'm suggesting the South may have provoked a response from NK via military incursions into their territory and by firing on one of their vessels.

But its not the Norths territory its as you have pointed out in your previous post disputed territory?

The South may feel that they have a legitimate reason to patrol these waters as well.

BluePlanet

deadtiger wrote: »

The South may feel that they have a legitimate reason to patrol these waters as well.

Oh they sure did, afterall, they were there as part of the largest "wargames" ever conducted:

The Key Resolve/Foal Eagle exercise on the West Sea near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) was aimed at keeping a more watchful eye on North Korea as well as training for the destruction of weapons of mass destruction in the North. It involved scores of ultra-modern US and South Korean warships equipped with the latest technology.

I wonder how SK and USA would feel if a hostile nation decided to conduct "war games" directed at them, immediately off their coasts.
Would that be Peace Keeping or War Mongering ?

gandalf

BluePlanet wrote: »

I wonder how SK and USA would feel if a hostile nation decided to conduct "war games" directed at them, immediately off their coasts.
Would that be Peace Keeping or War Mongering ?

Based on some of the history of this area I would say that they are prudent to carry out these types of training exercises myself.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/nll.htm