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I never want to work again

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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As you are no doubt thinking the more you know about actual horse racing the more sense it makes, I don't go with the whole gambling on horses is maths theory, and I have a degree in Physics so maths don't frighten me. I think you need to know lots about horse racing and know a little maths to undertand are you getting value or not :)

    I'm half thinking of writing a book about betting on the horses, I need to make a good lash out of betting first preferrably on betfair so I have proof for credibility :) I reckon 'twould be a great read :eek:


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Woddle wrote: »
    Also having just scanned back over todays selections with the paper I think I only would have dismissed 1 for sure 6'20- the dunion-perth

    So thats still 10 bets for the day. Going to get the tomorrows paper earlier than normal and give it a good detailed read, stay at home dad with 3 kids, the youngest being 4 months so it can be tough :D

    racingpost.com :)
    Much better than any paper, lifetime form at your fingertips for free :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    I am trying to be more cautious with my bank hence the paper trading this week :D
    but lets say my % strike rate is 13% (not including the placed horses) is there a staking plan that I can use to make this strike rate more effective. 13% gives me a win every 7.69 races, so if I was to lose the first 7/8 races, should I then up my stake to 2 pts or am I being a bit silly.
    The 13% is what it has been this week but it has been higher.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    RoverJames wrote: »
    I'm half thinking of writing a book about betting on the horses, I need to make a good lash out of betting first preferrably on betfair so I have proof for credibility :) I reckon 'twould be a great read :eek:

    I'll proof read it for you and make sure that the simpletons can understand it :D


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Woddle wrote: »
    I am trying to be more cautious with my bank hence the paper trading this week :D
    but lets say my % strike rate is 13% (not including the placed horses) is there a staking plan that I can use to make this strike rate more effective. 13% gives me a win every 7.69 races, so if I was to lose the first 7/8 races, should I then up my stake to 2 pts or am I being a bit silly.
    The 13% is what it has been this week but it has been higher.

    Only back selections 5/1 or bigger, first one loses than you try to win 60 on your 2nd bet (€50 + the lost €10) etc etc. Perhaps after 4 losers you may need to win €90 to still make your €50 and reclaim your losses. At this stage start back trying to win €50, when you do you'll be up €10. Winners I find are somewhat like the spaces in between cars at a roundabout, might be ages waiting for one and then a load come soon after each other. Loads of ways of protecting your betting bank, don't be afraid of making small losses, the alternative could be going bust by chasing them.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    Todays selections
    1'55 - Sal - Zahoo - win only
    4'00 - Perth - Bear witness - 75/25
    4'35 - Perth - Valley of giants - 75/25
    4'45 - Sal - Rio mist(nap) - win only
    6'15 - New - Hulcote rose - win only
    6'30 - Lud - Tyup pompey - 75/25
    7'25 - New - Baylini - 75/25
    7'40 - New - Tom folan - 75/25
    I've spent alot more time this morning on my selections, hopefully it will show


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    Update
    Woddle wrote: »
    Todays selections
    1'55 - Sal - Zahoo - win only Lose -1
    4'00 - Perth - Bear witness - 75/25 Place(place odds 3.15) +1.28
    4'35 - Perth - Valley of giants - 75/25 NR
    4'45 - Sal - Rio mist(nap) - win only Win (win odds 4.16)+3
    6'15 - New - Hulcote rose - win only Lose -1
    6'30 - Lud - Tyup pompey - 75/25 Win (win odds 13.0, place odds 3.55) +4.66
    7'25 - New - Baylini - 75/25 Lose -1
    7'40 - Lud - Prescelli - 75/25 Lose -1
    7'25 - New - Tom folan - 75/25 Win (win odds 8.8, place odds 3.7) +3.77

    Todays total €1/+€8.71
    Total so far €1/+€9.71

    I've spent alot more time this morning on my selections, hopefully it will show

    Todays total €1/+€8.71
    Total so far €1/+€9.71

    What a day and I backed them all, see its worth spending the whole morning studying form :D
    Thank you roverjames


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,915 ✭✭✭✭menoscemo


    Woddle wrote: »
    see its worth spending the whole morning studying form :D

    So this is your excuse for not getting any running done lately? :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    menoscemo wrote: »
    So this is your excuse for not getting any running done lately? :D

    Absolutely, but with 24 weeks to the DM, well running will be top priority, new rule if I don't start the day with a run I don't get to gamble. :D
    I was gutted to see I had lost the 1'55 when I got back from our run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Woddle wrote: »
    Update



    Todays total €1/+€8.71
    Total so far €1/+€9.71

    What a day and I backed them all, see its worth spending the whole morning studying form :D
    Thank you roverjames

    If it was me I would have done 56 trebles and got an over 450/1 win...... dam.


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  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Woddle wrote: »
    Update



    Todays total €1/+€8.71
    Total so far €1/+€9.71

    What a day and I backed them all, see its worth spending the whole morning studying form :D
    Thank you roverjames

    Well done dude :D
    Don't get complacent tomorrow ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Well done dude :D
    Don't get complacent tomorrow ;)

    Can't wait and cheers for pushing me in the right direction.


  • Moderators Posts: 8,714 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Well done Woddle, This could be beautiful. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,010 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Woddle wrote: »
    Todays total €1/+€8.71
    Total so far €1/+€9.71

    What does the €1 mean? €1 stakes?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    L'prof wrote: »
    What does the €1 mean? €1 stakes?

    Yep, its the only way I know how to keep records, havn't a clue what the likes of ROI % and all that mean, I suppose the €1 could be just a plain unit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,010 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    Woddle wrote: »
    Yep, its the only way I know how to keep records, havn't a clue what the likes of ROI % and all that mean, I suppose the €1 could be just a plain unit.

    Cool, just wondering. ROI is just a percentage of the profit you've made divided by the total amount you've spent in bets. Not that it matters anyway, once you're up, you're up :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Return on Investment ROI = Profit--Divided by Amount Invested --multiply the answer by 100 to get youR ROI which is expressed as a percentage.

    Profit........Invested..............................ROI
    10 ............./100..............= .10 x 100 = 10%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    Todays selections
    2'30 - Newmark - Flag of glory - Win only(maybe a no bet due to odds)
    3'00 - Newmark - Burghley(Nap) - Win only
    3'35 - Newmark - Cape rock - Win only
    4'35 - Newbury - Essexbridge - 75/25
    4'45 - Newmark - General tufto - Win only
    5'30 - Aintree - Boogie dancer - 75/25
    5'40 - Newbury - Carr hall - Win only (maybe a no bet due to odds)
    6'50 - Ham - Whispered times - 75/25
    7'05 - Aintree - Nearby - 75/25
    7'50 - Newcastle - Silent lucidity - 75/25
    8'15 - Aintree - Flying doctor - Win only(maybe a no bet due to odds)
    8'25 - Newcastle - Game lad(Nb) - Win only
    8'55 - Newcastle - Miss daawe - Win only
    9'05 - Ham - Bo mcginty - 75/25

    I managed to narrow it down to 14 bets from 22, I do reckon 3 of the above will be too short and I also reckon the odds of some of my 75/25 might shorten, making it a win only.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    Woddle you gave me an idea for a post. See if you can make sense of this.

    http://pricewiseextra.info/gambling-calculations/


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    An 11/8 fav left me down for nearly €5000 this evening :(

    7.05 Aintree, The Jigsaw Man 7/2 won
    8.00 Hamilton, Tinaar 11/8 3rd
    9.05 Hamilton, Ingleby Star 9/1 won
    6.00 Aintree, Victor Daly 5/1 won

    Had a €1 Lucky 15 and a €5 accumulator, still the docket is worth a few bob.

    Apologies for the off topic Woddle but I'm not really active in any other gambling thread :).


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    Disaster of a day. Back to the drawing board, see you Monday.
    Total so far is €/-€0.62


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    RoverJames wrote: »

    Apologies for the off topic Woddle but I'm not really active in any other gambling thread :).

    At least your up, I had an absolutely rotten day, thought I was Mr cool after yesterday :(


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Woddle wrote: »
    At least your up, I had an absolutely rotten day, thought I was Mr cool after yesterday :(

    Don't forget the roundabout dude, waiting for a gap in the traffic, you think one will never come, remember one will always come. The day after a good day is always a dodgy one too, things can go pear shaped quite quickly. I only said to the father about half an hour ago that I may well not have any single bets tomorrow and just do a yankee or something for a tenner or so. As I said a few days ago, you are looking at one of the hardest ways imaginable to return a regular income.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,135 ✭✭✭POINTBREAK


    RoverJames wrote: »
    An 11/8 fav left me down for nearly €5000 this evening :(

    7.05 Aintree, The Jigsaw Man 7/2 won
    8.00 Hamilton, Tinaar 11/8 3rd
    9.05 Hamilton, Ingleby Star 9/1 won
    6.00 Aintree, Victor Daly 5/1 won

    Had a €1 Lucky 15 and a €5 accumulator, still the docket is worth a few bob.

    Apologies for the off topic Woddle but I'm not really active in any other gambling thread :).

    Unlucky, I make that 416.50 back........... nearly 5k would have been a lot nicer.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    POINTBREAK wrote: »
    Unlucky, I make that 416.50 back........... nearly 5k would have been a lot nicer.


    :)

    The guts of 5K would have been sweet, am still a happy chappy though. A month or so back I did a quadpot in Kempton that came in, paid 20/1 ish, was sick though as all 4 won.

    BTW, you forget the 5/1 single win ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,492 ✭✭✭Woddle


    Jumps and all weather only today
    Todays selections
    2'50 - Newton - Justabout - 75/25
    3'10 - Wol - Namu - 75/25
    3'20 - Newton - Mae cigan -75/25
    3'50 - Newton - Foreign king(Nap) - win only but most likely a no bet due to odds
    4'10 - Wol - Almaty express - 75/25
    4'40 - Wol - Guildenstern - 75/25
    5'10 - Wol - Bob stock - win only
    5'40 - Wol - Red amy -


    I'll only be paper trading the above, like last week anything shorter than 2/1 won't be bet.

    I will however have one real bet today with money and it will be on foreign king.


  • Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So Woddle dude, what's the story ? I hope you're not getting despondent, I haven't had a winner myself in my last 5 bets.


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