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I never want to work again
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Update
I think I've calculated it correct but maybe someone else could double check but for a £1 stake, I returned + £7.41, given that my placed horses were £0.75/ £1.00 for the place.
Not too bad a day
I may be wrong, but you put down 16 and picked up 20.46, 9.61 of which is subject to 5% commission to betfair so that means you picked up 19.98 so profit of 3.98 units ? I may be wrong though as I said at the start
Just saw you had 2 non runners so thats 5.98 units profit0 -
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To be honest it's better for you in the long run that this happened on the 2nd day, there is no system that can give you selections in every HC race that will return a profit longterm. I wish there was but if there was it wouldn't last long.
The only way to pick winners regularly is to eat and sleep racing, watch as much of it as you can, read books about it, get to a racecourse and hang around the parade ring, learn about horses.
It takes 4 years in college to be an engineer or an accountant followed by a few years working before you make a good living from your profession, making money from gambling on horses is infinitely more difficult.
You need to finetune your system, use it in only races with 10 or less runners, only back the win only selection it turns up, the place game is more often than not devoid of value. Realistically no matter what you do I think the system will let you down unless you go with the increased stake way which is quite risky as it will drain your betting bank sharpish.
Things to remember, you are miles ahead of the average betting office dweller, you stay away from shortprices, you play on handicaps, you papertrade, you are wanting to learn It will take time though, lots of it. 0 -
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Not shocked at all
I have read all that before (too often really), he does mention the importance of finding value (it’s a mathematical fact that to make money long-term from betting then you have to be backing things at bigger prices than they should be"), it's a lot easier to find value if you know more than nothing about horseracing
Also he mentions "The most profitable bets that I do are backing the 2nd fav Each Way in horse races where there is a short-priced favourite, but these are bets that bookmakers hate to take (try walking into Boyles and having 500 quid EW on a 4/1 second favourite in an 8 runner race with a 1/3 favourite and a few no-hopers)" Anyone who knows about racing can testify that such races are few and far between, if they are few and far between one can't have winning selections regularly.
Also he says it's almost impossible to lose money backing like that and that he has made a 6 figure sum over 5 years from sports betting due to info from good contacts.
I'm not a pro punter but I'm no mug and have a very decent strikerate, if you try to make a living from betting on horses you need to know about racing, a chap who calls himself a pro poker player who gets sports info off folks in the know won't change my mind on that one He also won't dispute it I'm sure, you did say he says almost the exact opposite, in fairness he says nothing of the sort really, he just said he knows f all about racing and that he has made a few quid from it. 0 -
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POINTBREAK wrote: »Woddle, it strikes me that with 12 horses you are going to need something like 2 winners at 5/1 or a hell of a lot of placed horses to make a profit? Why dont you look at horses that look certain to be placed since most of your stake is on the place........
It is sth I was considering this morning but as I looked back over my records for the last few weeks, it showed me that yesterday was my worst day , so I might keep the faith for a little longer (the rest of the week
) and see where I'm at, I am open to change though. 0 -
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I'd stay away from the place market, unless you are getting 1/3 of the betting shop win price for the place on betfair. You mention your system is based to a degree on a horses form, I would consider carefully what good and bad form is. A horse who had course and distance form in a race at a certain track who has been unplaced in the last four of its races may not be in bad form if the four races were not at its optimum trip or if the ground wasn't suitable etc. Recent form has a fairly significant effect on the odds and quite often interpretting the form correctly can put you on a nice bet. Of course such studying requires time and you won't be having a selection in as many races as you do now if you start that route.
Also when your system throws up horses do keep in mind in handicaps the horse in the top half of the handicap win more races than those in the bottom, iirc something like 1 in 7 HCs is won by the topweight.
I really think the place market is a waste of time I'm not going to say so anymore though, broken record and all that.
About the topweights etc, do remember that the handicapper isn't out to stop a horse winning, he is out to try and give every horse in the races an equal chance. Trainers then try to place the horses accordingly. If you presume the handicapper is doing his job correctly and the trainer is placing the horse with a view to winning (we could talk about that all night) the any other factor in the horses favour can be considered an advantage, eg 1m2f handicap and only one horse in the field has one over the distance before, if that race was also a handicap we have a nice little piece of form, if loads of other horses in the race have also ran in handicaps of a similar level over the same distance and not been close to winning we have lovely form, which may or may not be refected in the available odds. I love handicaps and I generally trust the handicapper, not in Irish racing though.0 -
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This is very interesting as alot of the time my selection is from the bottom 1/3 of the list and I have noticed that whenever my choice is the top weight it does run close (if not win)
................ but it is a fine line for sure as I've only scraped the 1 win today and yesterday, so I am close to obliterating my bank if thats the route I choose, any suggestions or will we just see how the rest of the week goes. Cheers
The "better" horses are generally at the top of the handicap, being close to obliterating your bank is never good, it puts you out of business. You then either stop or get another bank, not much point doing the latter unless you have a different plan really.for some reason though I do find that I do well in the AW in paticular Lingfield and Wolverhampton, not too sure why.
AW is hated my many punters, I love it The ground is relatively consistent ish, variations in turf going is huge. Also on the AW I only use AW form, I ignore most if not all turf form of horses on the AW, and vice versa. 0 -
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Also having just scanned back over todays selections with the paper I think I only would have dismissed 1 for sure 6'20- the dunion-perth
So thats still 10 bets for the day. Going to get the tomorrows paper earlier than normal and give it a good detailed read, stay at home dad with 3 kids, the youngest being 4 months so it can be tough 0
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